Our analysis in our two recent articles, in GRL and E&E, has moved well beyond the points made in MM03, while building on them. Mann has recently claimed that all of our claims in MM03 have been discredited. I thought it would be interesting to look back at the claims in MM03 and see how they’ve stood up.
Of the 10 claims in MM03, my scorecard indicates that 7 have either been explicitly confirmed or are obviously correct and unrebutted (and in 3 cases, the problems were more pervasive than known at the time of MM03); MBH have withdrawn 1 data set affecting 2 claims (the defects may only apply to the withdrawn data set, but other than mere assertion, there is no proof that the problems did not infect other calculations).
MBH have been required to issue 1 Corrigendum to date, have been required to issue a large new Supplementary Information as a condition of the Corrigendum, have provided the first public notice of a previously undisclosed directory on MBH98 at Mann’s FTP site and are still providing new and additional disclosure on MBH98 methods (even as recently as Nov. 22, 2004).
Contrary to MBH claims, the 10th claim is not discredited in Rutherford et al. , which fails to deal with responses already on the record. More importantly, the 10th claim has led to more advanced (but not inconsistent) considerations of MBH98 through robustness, proxy validity and statistical significance, which have led to the 2 new peer-reviewed articles, MM05 (GRL) and MM05 (E&E).