Comments on: Moberg et al. [2005]

By: Steve McIntyre

Steve McIntyre — Sun, 08 Oct 2006 03:15:42 +0000

#4. Bingo

By: TCO

TCO — Sun, 08 Oct 2006 00:10:17 +0000

I really don’t understand what makes this Nature-worthy other then a general fascination with climate change and an overdramatization of a small and nascent field, by that organ. This reconstruction for all the blathering about wavelets and combining centenial proxies only has 11 proxies. It’s like another Crowley or Hegerly pick a basket of daisies and publish a paper in Nature. MBH for all its faults, at least had some promise with it’s large data set size to have been a superior study. But why, Moberg?

By: Steve McIntyre

Steve McIntyre — Fri, 11 Feb 2005 18:09:58 +0000

Tom, you’re right that this is from Echo-G. One of Mann’s spaghetti diagrams (EOS 2003) had model outputs and didn’t put this model in. (I don’t know whether it was available then.

An Exho-G version is in the Moberg article as Figure 2c, but it’s different than the above version: the Moberg version has late 20th century going higher than the MWP maximum, while the October 2004 version has a higher MWP than late 20th century: I wonder what caused the difference.

The relationship between MWP and late 20th century is interesting in other multiproxy studies: if you look at my Crowley note, you’ll see that his 15-series version has a higher MWP than 20th, but his 13-series version does not. So he nearly always uses his 13-series version: what would you bet that, if the relationships were reversed, he would have used the 15-series version. We know the answer. Steve

By: Tom Rees

Tom Rees — Fri, 11 Feb 2005 16:43:35 +0000

The reason that this is not incorporated into the spaghetti diagrams is that these are data from the ECHO-G climate model. By spooky coincidence, they look rather like the dat from Crowley and of Moberg…

By: John A.

John A. — Wed, 09 Feb 2005 19:45:14 +0000

Actually the next picture on that paper is the really compelling one, showing nicely the MWP and Little Ice Age as well as the current warm period.

Mann et al., have an explanation for all of this. Apparently “the MWP and LIA only appear in the North Atlantic region”.