Some of the images on Google maps are amazing. I’ve identified the location of the Graumlich samples at the following Google. You can match the shapes to an image in Bunn et al 2005 shown below. You can match the shape of the grey valley in the Google map image from 36 37N; 118 22W

37N

If you zoom in, you can pretty much see individual trees!

file:///maps?f=q&hl=en&q=36%C2%B0+37%27+N,+118%C2%B0+22%27+W&ie=UTF8&z=17&ll=36.616699,-118.38703&spn=0.003918,0.013561&t=k&om=1

I’d like to thank you for sharing your knowledge in this forum. This exposure to dendochronology has been eye-opening for me, and I assume for many others as well. I may be reading much into your discussion with bender, but I suspect that he is very intrigued by the science and art of this aspect of paleoclimatology. To be quite honest I wish I could join you in your planned work this upcoming field season.

Kind regards,
Earle Williams

Yes the uptic is in the raw data- however depending on the growth function you use to standardize (neg. exponential, linear, spline, etc.) you get different degrees of uptic in the standardized chronologies.

#35 I am conducting a large scale study over the entire western US (actually from southern Alaska to northern Mexico) looking at we are calling die-off across a range of tree species – we are using satellite imagery, along with field work to attempt to quantify the amount of standing dead (or dying) wood. This is like the Brashears study recently published on pinyon pines but on a much larger scale and for a wide range of species. Interestingly the BCP’s and foxtails that I have observed in California, Nevada, Arizona, Utah, Colorado and New Mexico have not yet shown the same type of die-off that other tree species have shown since 1995 (I would really be interested to know if anyone has seen any evidence of die-off in BCP). Also of interest is our observation that this particular die-off has gone beyond just tree species. Ground surveys have shown significant die-off in sagebrush and creosote- both incredibly drought tolerating species. 100% die-off in sagebrush and creosote in some areas. From everything I have read about earlier die-offs this one is large- but we do not really know how it compares. Dendro records that I have collected from some areas with die-off in pinyon show that many of the trees dying now survived the mid-to-late 1500′s megadrought in the southwest. That particular event did have a severe inpact on pinyon germination in the 1500′s but the spatial pattern of die-off in the 1500′s appears different than the current die-off. Still analyzing this and it is not meant to be a definitive statement.

#36 Yes not just this century!

#37 Pinyons in SE Utah are in very bad shape. Area SE of Glen Canyon has some areas approaching 100% pinyon mortality. Significant mortality has begun in trees in the Henry Mountains. Across the border in Colorado, Mesa Verde has very high mortality (and not just limited to pinyon).

#38 Problem with BCP responding by die-off in the MWP is that they have the ability to survive 300 to 500 years after a downturn in climate. If climate change is persistent and unidirectional for longer than 500 years you see a response at treeline. Otherwise you see lots of really narrow rings on a tree that eventually dies centuries after the downturn begins. If the climate “improves” the tree survives. The tree is still responding to climate like the “happier” members of its cohort 20 to 30 meters lower and the ring growth pattern is the same- just narrower rings. The MWP may not have been long enough to see a major response at treeline.

#39 Drought is definitely the primary factor. Ips attack drought weakened trees.

#40, 41. I call it die-off. I think of decline as a gradual shift in the growth response. This is rapid.

#42 I have always argued solar as being the driver of these variations (see Scuderi, 1993 pdf linked in #17 above).

Similar “unprecedented” outbreaks seem to be happening with lodgepole and whitebark pines in Montana, Wyoming, and especially Idaho. Some pretty alarming predictions have been made as to the future of those species. Like the pinyon, there are also some old studies pointing to similar outbreaks in the ’30s. Were they as extensive? Its hard to tell, though if you ask Jesse Logan you might get a different answer.

I have read the Breshears paper, but don’t remember enough to be able to comment on it right now. I seem to remember finding some of it informative, other parts less so, some of the speculation annoying and the reporting on it infuriating. Unfortunately (or fortunately, I am never sure) I am not in the research/academic arena so climate science is something I follow because it interests me – and because it may help inform the decisions I make as a forester – this means I don’t keep totally up to date.

As to the decline issue; my graduate training is in plant pathology – specifically forest pathology. In forest pathology decline has a specific meaning, and is a fairly well fleshed-out concept (Mainly the work of Paul Manion). Dr. Manion was a great guy, but the utility of his concept is a matter of debate, particurally because it is often missaplied. I should have taken the time to explain this before. So much for my brief comment;)