More papers from the Canberra conference

I thought it would be interesting to look up more details of presentations made by people at the recent conference in Canberra. I found some materials at this site.

Of more relevance to the research of Steve McIntyre is this presentation by Dr Bob Carter of the James Cook University on the question of climate change prediction, which starts off with a zinger of a first sentence:

Contemporary discussion of climate change is bedevilled by dishonesty. The views of the public are fashioned largely by propaganda promulgated by self-interested NGO, media, industry and political pressure groups. At the same time, scientific opinions are strongly conditioned by the fashionable political requirement that research has to be "useful" to merit funding: no climate change problem, then little climate change funding.

Most western governments base their climate change policy on the advice of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Though in receipt of copious amounts of scientific advice, the IPCC (at the level of its "Advice to Policymakers" document) is an unabashedly political, not scientific, organisation. Its assertion that a dangerous human influence is being exerted on climate change rests on three main pillars, each of which has been demonstrated to be unsound. These are (i) the thermometer-based groundtemperature record; (ii) the claim, after the Mann et al. (1998) "hockey stick" model of climate change, that late 20th century temperatures rose to an unnatural level and at an unnatural rate; and (iii) the claim that deterministic computer models can predict climate 50 or 100 years ahead.

There is also a more conventional pro-anthropogenic warming presentation (it’s really a set of slides in pdf form) by Dr Graeme Pearman, Director, GP Consultants Pty Ltd and former Chief of the CSIRO Division of Atmospheric Research. It’s in note form and some of the early slides are a little opaque, but it basically gives the current IPCC-centric view of the debate on Kyoto and after.

Also interesting is a short introductory speech by Qingqing Zhao, Representative from the Government of the People’s Republic of China, on the need for the sharing of technologies and scientific endevour to the developing world, especially in the arena of reducing dependence on fossil fuels (something that China is currently heavily dependent on).

One Comment

  1. Chas
    Posted Apr 23, 2005 at 12:26 PM | Permalink

    In the ‘conventional’ slide presentation there is a slide showing Oz temperature history and two two modelled matches -one with CO2 forcing and one without CO2.

    The with-CO2 model goes ‘numb’ as the temperature rises.(the non-forced model does not)
    Something in the modelling seems to be wrong.

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