Some News and Comment

Roger Pielke has an interesting article here. I’m going to be offline for a few days and don’t have time now.

There’s an interesting row between the UK National Academy (Lord May) and on the one hand the Russian National Academy and on the hand the U.S. National Academy, where the latter two have distanced themselves from recent statements on climate attributed by the UK National Academy. Here are a couple of references and it should be google-able.
BBC Radio 4
Times July 5

An article here about a stalagmite contributing to more debate about the MWP and LIA. I haven’t read the article yet, but will.


11 Comments

  1. John Davis
    Posted Jul 6, 2005 at 8:39 AM | Permalink | Reply

    While you’re about it, here’s a lnk to the UK House of Lords report on the “Economics of Climate Change” which makes for interesting reading: http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld200506/ldselect/ldeconaf/12/12i.pdf

  2. David H
    Posted Jul 6, 2005 at 10:30 AM | Permalink | Reply

    [I tried to post the above link to the Lords Committee Report earlier on the Blogs on Barton Letters section but just got back the FBI's home page. Are they on to me or is there a gremlin in your system?]

    It’s a good report. Here are two quotes

    para 22 “We sought evidence that refuted the claims of McIntyre and McKitrick, but have not come across any detailed rebuttal.”

    Para 23 “We are in no position to determine who is right and who is wrong in the growing debate on the hockey stick. If there are historical periods of marked temperature increase, it seems to us it is important to know why these occurred. Overall, we can only urge that the issue is pursued in the next IPCC Assessment.”

  3. Steve McIntyre
    Posted Jul 6, 2005 at 12:34 PM | Permalink | Reply

    Re #2:
    The FBI??? – this gets weirder and weirder.

  4. John A
    Posted Jul 6, 2005 at 1:45 PM | Permalink | Reply

    Yes, they’re on to you Steve ;-)

  5. Posted Jul 6, 2005 at 6:05 PM | Permalink | Reply

    Another stalagmite of interest can be found at the other side of the globe in South China, where temperatures are reconstructed over the past 36,000 years. See:
    http://karst.planetresources.net/dating-guilin-1994.htm

    The main findings for the Holocene are:
    “Each cycle lasts about 3000 a. The highest annual mean air temperature during warm period was up to 22 ~ 23oC that is about 3 ~ 4oC higher than that of today. The lowest annual mean air temperature during cold period was 16oC that is about 3oC lower than that of today.”
    That coincidences nicely with the MWP and LIA…

  6. Ed Snack
    Posted Jul 6, 2005 at 7:10 PM | Permalink | Reply

    I also experienced the FBI link, someone hacked the server ? But, but, I thought the dogs were being sicc’d onto the Mannians. Everybody says so, why are we poor innocent skeptics being hounded ! Which side is Rep Barton on !!!

  7. John Davis
    Posted Jul 7, 2005 at 2:26 AM | Permalink | Reply

    There’s an interesting straw in the wind in that BBC report on the stalagmite. Towards the end it says:
    The implications of SPA-12 will stoke up what is already an acrimonious debate between global warming sceptics and the scientific “consensus”.
    Notice those quotation marks?

  8. Posted Jul 8, 2005 at 3:44 AM | Permalink | Reply

    Prof. Von Storch and Prof. Mangini, both participated in this Gummersbach meeting last february.

    On request von Storch was really polite towards M&M, but told the audience not to hang the “hockey-stick” to high.

    After the speech of Von Storch Mangini had a very convincingly introduction concerning his research on stalagmite showing that the sun was the main cause of historic climate change.

    He began his speech criticizing Mann’s Hockey-Stick. Because of his large climate archives he told the audience that the LIA and the MWP existed not only in Europe but also in other parts of the earth.

    Von Stroch was not really amused as somebody of the audience asked if the role of the sun is also valid for the temperatures of last 20 years.

    What Maldini presented was one of the best I have heard in the last years.

    See: http://www.sepp.org//NewSEPP/German%20GW%20Seminar.htm

  9. John A
    Posted Jul 8, 2005 at 7:14 AM | Permalink | Reply

    Re #8

    Dear Dr Stroeher,
    Is the presentation given by Dr Mangini available somewhere?

  10. Posted Jul 8, 2005 at 10:04 AM | Permalink | Reply

    You may ask Prof. Mangini himself. He showed some very interesting charts in Gummersbach.
    If You google Mangini, you will find his adress. He works in Heidelberg, Germany.

    Sorry, no Dr, only Bernd Stroeher

  11. Posted Jul 30, 2005 at 1:36 AM | Permalink | Reply

    Mangini et. Al. have published the results of their findings.

    Here are some remarks of the Idsos.
    http://www.co2science.org/scripts/Template/MainPage.jsp?MerchantCode=CO2ScienceB2C&Page=Index

    The Medieval Warm Period in the Central Alps of Austria
    Volume 8, Number 30: 27 July 2005

    Extrakt :

    The lowest temperatures of the past two millennia, according to the new record, occurred during the Little Ice Age (AD 1400-1850), while the highest temperatures were found in the Medieval Warm Period (MWP: AD 800-1300). Furthermore, Mangini et al. say that the highest temperatures of the MWP were “slightly higher than those of the top section of the stalagmite (1950 AD) and higher than the present-day temperature.” In fact, at three different points during the MWP, their data indicate temperature spikes in excess of 1°C above present (1995-1998) temperatures.
    ………………………….

    In a second severe blow to IPCC dogma, Mangini et al. found “a high correlation between àƒ⢱8O and àƒ⢱4C, that reflects the amount of radiocarbon in the upper atmosphere,” and they note that this correlation “suggests that solar variability was a major driver of climate in Central Europe during the past 2 millennia
    …………………………..

    they found that the impact of the sun was fully 279 times greater than that of the air’s CO2 concentration, noting that “the flat evolution of CO2 during the first 19 centuries yields almost vanishing correlation coefficients with the temperature reconstructions.”
    …………………………….

    Mangini, A., Spotl, C. and Verdes, P. 2005. Reconstruction of temperature in the Central Alps during the past 2000 yr from a àƒ⢱8O stalagmite record. Earth and Planetary Science Letters 235: 741-751.

    Bernd Stroeher

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