Comments on: Crowley on Zhu [1973]

By: Update On My June 2011 Post “An Interesting 1973 Paper ‘A Preliminary Study On The Climatic Flucuations During The Last 5000 years In China’ By Chu Ko-Chen | Climate Science: Roger Pielke Sr.

Sat, 14 Jan 2012 17:08:25 +0000

[...] Crowley on Zhu [1973] [...]

By: per

per — Thu, 04 Aug 2005 18:28:25 +0000

I can’t help but think that Tom Crowley’s opinion in Eos needs a counterweight.
The strength of the contrary argument- that replication and replicability are the lifeblood of science- seems to be compelling, and would doubtless attract much interest. The record of your email correspondence would probably be pretty relevant too.
yours
per

Steve: I got about 90% through a rebuttal to send to EOS and put it aside until I was a little less irritated. It’s really quite a spectacle seeing a senior scientist invent such fantasies. It’s astonishing to compare his EOS account of the correspondence to the actual record. His handling of proxy records in Crowley and Lowery [2000] is about the same calibre. He’s really gone downhill since his Paleoclimatology text, which I liked, or maybe Gerry North carried him.

By: Paul Gosling

Paul Gosling — Thu, 04 Aug 2005 11:15:27 +0000

Steve

I’ve not got time to look now, and I am by no means an expert, but regarding tree lines. I would guess they have a tendency to go up quite quickly but come down again quite slowly. Plant populations basically reflect recruitment. You can get a forest composed of old trees with no young trees because conditions for establishment are not good enough, for what ever reason. The forest will slowly decline as the old trees die, and retreat back to the true tree line, but this may take some time. I have no evidence for this in the case of tree lines, call it informed speculation.

Steve: I’d be interested in your thoughts. I’ve been collecting information on tree lines slowly. I posted up some examples about 4 months ago and, with my renewed commitment to serene postings, will post up a few more as they are quite interesting. The impression that I get is that some hardy species can survive for a very long time outside their reproduction zone (e.g. bristlecones were not reproducing in the mid-20th century but had survived). Also the Tasmanian huon pine stand studied by Cook was higher than the reproducing range (and was rather a surprise). The response to climate change seems to be pretty gradual, but for establishing a low-frequency index, I would have thought that it would be a pretty interesting proxy. When you see medieval stumps above present tree line, it’s hard to avoid the idea that it might have been warmer then. Briffa’ s analysis of Polar Urals altitudes was scandalous. You reminded me – I’ve got an interesting and hard-to-get pdf on the Urals which I need to post up.

By: Ed Snack

Ed Snack — Thu, 04 Aug 2005 05:29:24 +0000

Well spotted Jo ! Of course, proper application of the Great Helmsman’s thought could stop global warming anyway…

By: Jo Calder

Jo Calder — Thu, 04 Aug 2005 04:53:59 +0000

the 1973 volume (which was the first volume after a 6 year interruption for the Great Leap Forward)

The Great Leap Forward started in the late ’50s. The Cultural Revolution (from ’66) is a more proximate cause.

Cheers,
– Jo

By: Dave Dardinger

Dave Dardinger — Thu, 04 Aug 2005 02:36:00 +0000

Well Steve, if Mannianism is the thesis and M&M is antithesis, what is the synthesis? Or should I just say MU and be done with it?

Steve: Or how about “oooommmm”?