Comments on: More on Esper et al [2002]

By: TCO

TCO — Sat, 24 Sep 2005 02:47:44 +0000

I think we know that there are potential nonlinearities and confounding factors. Next issue is to characterize them.

By: Murray Duffin

Murray Duffin — Fri, 23 Sep 2005 19:44:11 +0000

Re 1. See:
http://www.lse.co.uk/ShowStory.asp?story=EC2117823W&news_headline=2003_heatwave_may_have_sped_up_global_warming
It seems like tree ring correlation with btemperature gets very prolematic, or maybe trees behave differently in the 21st century. Murray

By: Steve McIntyre

Steve McIntyre — Wed, 21 Sep 2005 21:50:13 +0000

There are gridcell precipitation series. I don’t know anything about these datasets. Precipitation is much more irregular than temperature.

Ocean temperatures look like they are more autocorrelated than NH continental temperatures; look at my ARMA postings for some coefficients using ARMA(1,1).

Some of Mandelbrot’s fractal work was influenced by climate series – he talked about the Joseph Effect and the Noah Effect. Mandelbrot thought that the persistence was much greater than ARMA and on all scales with peculiar properties.

MAndelbrot actually studied some tree ring series and some varved sediments.

By: TCO

TCO — Wed, 21 Sep 2005 21:29:14 +0000

1. To what extent does moisture change and are the changes correlated with temp or not? (I know that this is a huge question, but just was wondering, how to start thinking about it.) Is there a “moisture version” of the CRU dataset for instance? Wondering if magnitudes of changes are typically smaller/larger on a centenial climate scale if they typically counteract or enhance temp effects.

2. What about variation of temp itself? Is it pretty autocorrelated? Are the centenial scale changes the result of luck (i.e. buncha bad years) or an effect showing a change in the system? (And how does one properly describe and evaluate the concept that I’m manhandling here)?