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	<title>Comments on: Realclimate reaches 1 million hits</title>
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	<link>http://climateaudit.org/2005/10/04/realclimate-reaches-1-million-hits/</link>
	<description>by Steve McIntyre</description>
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		<title>By: Ian Castles</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2005/10/04/realclimate-reaches-1-million-hits/#comment-38164</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Ian Castles]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 14 Oct 2005 03:15:18 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=392#comment-38164</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Re #34, I agree that there have recently been several productive debates on this site. But to inject a note of realism, here are quotes from speeches by two British Ministers at a meeting with business leaders on 5 October. The first is from the Secretary of State for the Environment:

&quot;First ... the debate about the science is over. For an ever-reducing minority, there is an ever-shrinking area of doubt in which to seek refuge. The scientific conference which we held in Exeter, where the scientific community with representatives from across the world, met in February this year concluded that there was &quot;greater clarity and less uncertainty about the impacts of climate change across a wide range of systems, sectors and societies&quot;.

And the second comes from the speech by the Secretary for Trade and Industry at the same meeting:

&quot;Twenty years ago, those people who warned against global warming were considered to be eccentric -- the sort of people who ate lentils and listened to the Incredible String Band. For every person who said climate change was a threat, there were a thousand who said it was scaremongering. For every company &quot;going green&quot;, a hundred whose mantra was &quot;business as usual&quot;. When Margaret Thatcher&#039;s Chief Scientific Adviser warned her of the threat from global warming, she is alleged to have said, &quot;Are you seriously telling me I should worry about the weather?&quot; The Rubiks Cube of national opinion has been turned over several times since then. And all of the squares are now falling into place. As we can see today, there is a growing consensus. Between the environmental lobby, public opinion and the scientific community - and now, after Gleneagles - the world community.&quot;]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Re #34, I agree that there have recently been several productive debates on this site. But to inject a note of realism, here are quotes from speeches by two British Ministers at a meeting with business leaders on 5 October. The first is from the Secretary of State for the Environment:</p>
<p>&#8220;First &#8230; the debate about the science is over. For an ever-reducing minority, there is an ever-shrinking area of doubt in which to seek refuge. The scientific conference which we held in Exeter, where the scientific community with representatives from across the world, met in February this year concluded that there was &#8220;greater clarity and less uncertainty about the impacts of climate change across a wide range of systems, sectors and societies&#8221;.</p>
<p>And the second comes from the speech by the Secretary for Trade and Industry at the same meeting:</p>
<p>&#8220;Twenty years ago, those people who warned against global warming were considered to be eccentric &#8212; the sort of people who ate lentils and listened to the Incredible String Band. For every person who said climate change was a threat, there were a thousand who said it was scaremongering. For every company &#8220;going green&#8221;, a hundred whose mantra was &#8220;business as usual&#8221;. When Margaret Thatcher&#8217;s Chief Scientific Adviser warned her of the threat from global warming, she is alleged to have said, &#8220;Are you seriously telling me I should worry about the weather?&#8221; The Rubiks Cube of national opinion has been turned over several times since then. And all of the squares are now falling into place. As we can see today, there is a growing consensus. Between the environmental lobby, public opinion and the scientific community &#8211; and now, after Gleneagles &#8211; the world community.&#8221;</p>
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		<title>By: Dave Dardinger</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2005/10/04/realclimate-reaches-1-million-hits/#comment-38163</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Dave Dardinger]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 14 Oct 2005 00:38:43 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=392#comment-38163</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[You know, I think either Steve is hitting his stride in producing provocative posts or there is just a lot more interest here.  Practically every post in October, and there&#039;s been quite a number of them already, has large numbers of comments, and not just ones from TCO either.  And a lot of the discussions are productive ones rather than people arguing with no progress made.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>You know, I think either Steve is hitting his stride in producing provocative posts or there is just a lot more interest here.  Practically every post in October, and there&#8217;s been quite a number of them already, has large numbers of comments, and not just ones from TCO either.  And a lot of the discussions are productive ones rather than people arguing with no progress made.</p>
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		<title>By: Hans Erren</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2005/10/04/realclimate-reaches-1-million-hits/#comment-38162</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Hans Erren]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 07 Oct 2005 22:00:55 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=392#comment-38162</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[try shadowposting at ukweatherworld, works for me.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>try shadowposting at ukweatherworld, works for me.</p>
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		<title>By: JerryB</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2005/10/04/realclimate-reaches-1-million-hits/#comment-38161</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[JerryB]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 07 Oct 2005 21:41:38 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=392#comment-38161</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[TCO

I just noticed comment 31.  Your suggestion by juxtaposition is false.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>TCO</p>
<p>I just noticed comment 31.  Your suggestion by juxtaposition is false.</p>
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		<title>By: TCO</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2005/10/04/realclimate-reaches-1-million-hits/#comment-38160</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[TCO]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 06 Oct 2005 02:57:10 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=392#comment-38160</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Looks like I&#039;m banned from RealClimate.  JerryB got his wish.  They restricted me.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Looks like I&#8217;m banned from RealClimate.  JerryB got his wish.  They restricted me.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
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	<item>
		<title>By: TCO</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2005/10/04/realclimate-reaches-1-million-hits/#comment-38159</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[TCO]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 06 Oct 2005 02:46:38 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=392#comment-38159</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[No, John.  It is suggestive though.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>No, John.  It is suggestive though.</p>
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		<title>By: John A</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2005/10/04/realclimate-reaches-1-million-hits/#comment-38158</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[John A]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 05 Oct 2005 19:37:20 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=392#comment-38158</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Re #27

So does correlation mean causation? In the high resolution ice core records, the CO2 rises happened consistently 800-1000 years AFTER the temperature rises had begun, and continued after the temperatures had stopped rising and begun to fall.

Let&#039;s see: 800-1000 years ago we had the Medieval Warm Period. We now have had rising carbon dioxide from about the middle of the 19th Century.

Or alternatively, the bottom of the Little Ice Age was in the 17th Century and then temperatures rose 3 degrees in a couple of decades. But carbon dioxide didn&#039;t start to rise until the mid 19th Century.

So how did carbon dioxide cause temperature rise which preceded it by at least 150 years but more likely 800-1000 years? Time traveL?]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Re #27</p>
<p>So does correlation mean causation? In the high resolution ice core records, the CO2 rises happened consistently 800-1000 years AFTER the temperature rises had begun, and continued after the temperatures had stopped rising and begun to fall.</p>
<p>Let&#8217;s see: 800-1000 years ago we had the Medieval Warm Period. We now have had rising carbon dioxide from about the middle of the 19th Century.</p>
<p>Or alternatively, the bottom of the Little Ice Age was in the 17th Century and then temperatures rose 3 degrees in a couple of decades. But carbon dioxide didn&#8217;t start to rise until the mid 19th Century.</p>
<p>So how did carbon dioxide cause temperature rise which preceded it by at least 150 years but more likely 800-1000 years? Time traveL?</p>
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		<title>By: David Stockwell</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2005/10/04/realclimate-reaches-1-million-hits/#comment-38157</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[David Stockwell]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 05 Oct 2005 19:36:13 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=392#comment-38157</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Temperature is different as global warming is defined as increasing average global temperatures.  If temperatures go down or stay the same this is a direct contradiction to AGW, isn&#039;t it?  The position can only be salvaged by more complex arguments that put the heat somewhere else.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Temperature is different as global warming is defined as increasing average global temperatures.  If temperatures go down or stay the same this is a direct contradiction to AGW, isn&#8217;t it?  The position can only be salvaged by more complex arguments that put the heat somewhere else.</p>
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	<item>
		<title>By: TCO</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2005/10/04/realclimate-reaches-1-million-hits/#comment-38156</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[TCO]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 05 Oct 2005 19:29:28 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=392#comment-38156</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I find them suggestive.

Would also add:  temps going up over last century and at same time CO2 going up.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I find them suggestive.</p>
<p>Would also add:  temps going up over last century and at same time CO2 going up.</p>
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		<title>By: David Stockwell</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2005/10/04/realclimate-reaches-1-million-hits/#comment-38155</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[David Stockwell]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 05 Oct 2005 16:50:25 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=392#comment-38155</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Re: #24 Thanks Ross, I will have to read these - a kind of &#039;deep&#039; modeling.  Although, for all its caveats, direct evidence such as temperatures not increasing is still compelling, at least to me.  I don&#039;t see why there are so many parameters, we are disregarding all the drivers and just comparing trajectories.  I think there are 17 data points, including 2004.  There are means of differences for A,B, and C, and variances.  The variances in the simulations are less than the instrument record and need to be accounted for.  Also, there is a break at 2000, where scenario C stops increasing CO2.  Can you just test means of diferences, or is there a stronger test?

Re: #22.  Yes I saw your post. Interesting the question was about agreement of temperatures, and Gavin answered about agreement of CO2 scenarios, avoiding the issue of temperatures.  I know this is not rebuttal of AGW, but surely if global temperature forecasts and the instrument record have been used in defence of AGW, the can also be used in its prosecution.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Re: #24 Thanks Ross, I will have to read these &#8211; a kind of &#8216;deep&#8217; modeling.  Although, for all its caveats, direct evidence such as temperatures not increasing is still compelling, at least to me.  I don&#8217;t see why there are so many parameters, we are disregarding all the drivers and just comparing trajectories.  I think there are 17 data points, including 2004.  There are means of differences for A,B, and C, and variances.  The variances in the simulations are less than the instrument record and need to be accounted for.  Also, there is a break at 2000, where scenario C stops increasing CO2.  Can you just test means of diferences, or is there a stronger test?</p>
<p>Re: #22.  Yes I saw your post. Interesting the question was about agreement of temperatures, and Gavin answered about agreement of CO2 scenarios, avoiding the issue of temperatures.  I know this is not rebuttal of AGW, but surely if global temperature forecasts and the instrument record have been used in defence of AGW, the can also be used in its prosecution.</p>
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