There’s some very important new information related to the “Yamal Substitution” – which sounds like a Ludlum novel title – in the Esper site chronologies which Science provided today. Also see here here here.
Here’s a plot of a 40-year smooth of the Esper site chronology for Polar Urals and Briffa’s archived version of the Yamal substitution (which is in the same general area).
A few months ago, I’d reported that the updated Polar Urals site chronology – if reported by the Hockey Team – would show high MWP values. I showed this recently in connection with Briffa’s switch of the Yamal series for the Polar Urals series in 2000. Now here’s Esper’s calculation which is very similar to my calculation – showing elevated MWP levels.
Now I’m not saying the updated Polar Urals series is “right” and that this proves the MWP. However, I don’t see how anyone can purport to place confidence intervals on the Yamal version or any of its unholy progeny – given that the Polar Urals Update has a completely different MWP-modern relationship.
It is also fascinating to see what happens to 1032 – the “coldest” year of the millennium according to Briffa et al  and the “cold” early 11th century (about which I’ve written a lot). The old Polar Urals series, which was so important in “proving” that the MWP had no patterns. Here, 1032 is in the midst of one of the warmest intervals of the millennium – both in the Esper version and in Briffa’s reprocessing of Yamal. I wonder if Briffa has any plans to send an update to Nature or to anyone else.
I find it extremely objectionable that there was never any formal report on the Polar Urals Update. The Esper version here is the first direct evidence of Hockey Team knowledge of this. In speculative mining businesses, if you have new drill results that change the understanding of an ore body, you have to publish them. Why the hell didn’t Briffa have to publish the updated Polar Urals results, given the big splash that he’d made in Nature about the coldest year of the millennium? It was even mentioned in IPCC 1995.