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	<title>Comments on: Predict future climate change!</title>
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	<link>http://climateaudit.org/2006/05/03/construct-the-future-of-climate/</link>
	<description>by Steve McIntyre</description>
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		<title>By: KevinUK</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2006/05/03/construct-the-future-of-climate/#comment-50115</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[KevinUK]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 25 Aug 2006 12:24:07 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=655#comment-50115</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Hi JillB,

Are you new to the whole issue of anthropenic global warming (man-caused GW) or not. I ask because the information/advice you will be given will depend on you answer. If you are a newbie then its best to start by researching on Google and following the links from one web site to another. That way you can read what you see and make up your own mind. After a bit of that go and read the IPCC 2001 Third Aassessment Report (TAR) and you&#039;ll then be able to relate what you&#039;ve previous read against what&#039;s in the TAR. One word of warning, don&#039;t just read press articles in the mainstream media, dig deeper than that.

Happy AGW researching!

KevinUK]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Hi JillB,</p>
<p>Are you new to the whole issue of anthropenic global warming (man-caused GW) or not. I ask because the information/advice you will be given will depend on you answer. If you are a newbie then its best to start by researching on Google and following the links from one web site to another. That way you can read what you see and make up your own mind. After a bit of that go and read the IPCC 2001 Third Aassessment Report (TAR) and you&#8217;ll then be able to relate what you&#8217;ve previous read against what&#8217;s in the TAR. One word of warning, don&#8217;t just read press articles in the mainstream media, dig deeper than that.</p>
<p>Happy AGW researching!</p>
<p>KevinUK</p>
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	</item>
	<item>
		<title>By: JillB</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2006/05/03/construct-the-future-of-climate/#comment-50114</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[JillB]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 25 Aug 2006 09:06:10 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=655#comment-50114</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[can anyone tell me please if there is any evidence that increases in atmospheric co2 has initiated any global warming episodes?]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>can anyone tell me please if there is any evidence that increases in atmospheric co2 has initiated any global warming episodes?</p>
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		<title>By: Steve Sadlov</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2006/05/03/construct-the-future-of-climate/#comment-50113</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Steve Sadlov]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 26 May 2006 17:32:09 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=655#comment-50113</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Like stock picking, futures trading and knife edge book cooking, the attempt to predict future climate may have huge downsides. By overtly driving the masses to prepare for a warming future, serious damage may result, if in fact, the future is a cooling, not a warming one. I just posted the following on the ENSO thread at RC, we&#039;ll see if they let it through:

&quot;No matter what one might conclude about causitive factors, on the West Coast, where I have spent my 40 plus year life, indeed, La Nina like conditions have seemed to increase. Winters have brought increases in low elevation snow events and increases in the wide and wild swings typical of &quot;less droughty&quot; La Ninas (well, less droughty for the coast north of about San Luis Obispo, that is ...). Springs have become limited to non existent. Summers tend to have more onshore push, deeper marine layers and more &quot;unseasonal&quot; cold fronts and insider slider lows. We see more cold core systems earlier in fall. So, depending on which GCM you subscribe to, and depending on the extent to which you elevate arthropogenic modification of the atmospheric gas mixture as a causitive factor of specific long term dynamics, yes, La Nina may be a proxy, of sorts, of the AGW theory assuming it is true. Frightening thought - if and only if the AGW centric prediction of future climate is either not completely correct, or out right wrong, consider extreme scenarios which would result in a drastically (and painfully) different outcome than the prophecied sea level rise / climatic tropical expansion / northerly movement of species model. Flip that on its head and imagine it. Pretty rough stuff, and in my mind, even worse than the outcome of the global warming tipping point scenario. Colder may not be better! &quot;]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Like stock picking, futures trading and knife edge book cooking, the attempt to predict future climate may have huge downsides. By overtly driving the masses to prepare for a warming future, serious damage may result, if in fact, the future is a cooling, not a warming one. I just posted the following on the ENSO thread at RC, we&#8217;ll see if they let it through:</p>
<p>&#8220;No matter what one might conclude about causitive factors, on the West Coast, where I have spent my 40 plus year life, indeed, La Nina like conditions have seemed to increase. Winters have brought increases in low elevation snow events and increases in the wide and wild swings typical of &#8220;less droughty&#8221; La Ninas (well, less droughty for the coast north of about San Luis Obispo, that is &#8230;). Springs have become limited to non existent. Summers tend to have more onshore push, deeper marine layers and more &#8220;unseasonal&#8221; cold fronts and insider slider lows. We see more cold core systems earlier in fall. So, depending on which GCM you subscribe to, and depending on the extent to which you elevate arthropogenic modification of the atmospheric gas mixture as a causitive factor of specific long term dynamics, yes, La Nina may be a proxy, of sorts, of the AGW theory assuming it is true. Frightening thought &#8211; if and only if the AGW centric prediction of future climate is either not completely correct, or out right wrong, consider extreme scenarios which would result in a drastically (and painfully) different outcome than the prophecied sea level rise / climatic tropical expansion / northerly movement of species model. Flip that on its head and imagine it. Pretty rough stuff, and in my mind, even worse than the outcome of the global warming tipping point scenario. Colder may not be better! &#8220;</p>
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	<item>
		<title>By: TCO</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2006/05/03/construct-the-future-of-climate/#comment-50112</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[TCO]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 21 May 2006 23:37:16 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=655#comment-50112</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I agree with all of that.  And thanks for agreeing with me.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I agree with all of that.  And thanks for agreeing with me.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>By: Dave Dardinger</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2006/05/03/construct-the-future-of-climate/#comment-50111</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Dave Dardinger]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 21 May 2006 22:38:10 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=655#comment-50111</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Well, this is Steve&#039;s blog.  But JohnA deserves some perks for helping keep the place running.  But what if it were TCO vs JohnA blogs?  I hate to say it, but you&#039;d lose out there, friend.  I don&#039;t need vulgarity and I don&#039;t need orders on how things should be done and when.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Well, this is Steve&#8217;s blog.  But JohnA deserves some perks for helping keep the place running.  But what if it were TCO vs JohnA blogs?  I hate to say it, but you&#8217;d lose out there, friend.  I don&#8217;t need vulgarity and I don&#8217;t need orders on how things should be done and when.</p>
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	<item>
		<title>By: TCO</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2006/05/03/construct-the-future-of-climate/#comment-50110</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[TCO]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 21 May 2006 22:27:47 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=655#comment-50110</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Yeah, I figured you were just being cute and might even share my disdain for the JohnA vice SteveM posts...]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Yeah, I figured you were just being cute and might even share my disdain for the JohnA vice SteveM posts&#8230;</p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>By: Dave Dardinger</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2006/05/03/construct-the-future-of-climate/#comment-50109</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Dave Dardinger]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 21 May 2006 22:22:41 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=655#comment-50109</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Well, TCO, I don&#039;t think it&#039;s even been determined what kind of post this is.  Myself, I was referring to the kind of post which has an interactive gimmick.  You probably meant something else.  I mostly replied to you just to let me use some alliteration.  I suppose I could instead try decyphering your name, especially given your hint.    ..  Let&#039;s see what would TCO = &quot;not out to sea&quot;.  &quot;Sea&quot; = C &quot;Not out to&quot; = into So you&#039;re a C programmer?  Or could we apply the &quot;not&quot; to your initials and so it means to reverse the letters TCO = OCT.  You were born in October?  That&#039;s cool, so was I.  Am I close?]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Well, TCO, I don&#8217;t think it&#8217;s even been determined what kind of post this is.  Myself, I was referring to the kind of post which has an interactive gimmick.  You probably meant something else.  I mostly replied to you just to let me use some alliteration.  I suppose I could instead try decyphering your name, especially given your hint.    ..  Let&#8217;s see what would TCO = &#8220;not out to sea&#8221;.  &#8220;Sea&#8221; = C &#8220;Not out to&#8221; = into So you&#8217;re a C programmer?  Or could we apply the &#8220;not&#8221; to your initials and so it means to reverse the letters TCO = OCT.  You were born in October?  That&#8217;s cool, so was I.  Am I close?</p>
]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>By: TCO</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2006/05/03/construct-the-future-of-climate/#comment-50108</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[TCO]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 21 May 2006 17:51:31 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=655#comment-50108</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[#15:

Dardie:  are you one of those who like this kind of post?  Note, Steve&#039;s response in the top part...maybe I&#039;m not so out to sea...]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>#15:</p>
<p>Dardie:  are you one of those who like this kind of post?  Note, Steve&#8217;s response in the top part&#8230;maybe I&#8217;m not so out to sea&#8230;</p>
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	<item>
		<title>By: Lee</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2006/05/03/construct-the-future-of-climate/#comment-50107</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Lee]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 07 May 2006 01:18:58 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=655#comment-50107</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[re 58:

George, Ive read that.  &quot;Marine&quot; does not mean &quot;fish.&quot;  We know the Norse ate marine mammals, mostly hunted during summer expeditions to calving grounds north of the settlements. There is also evidence that as local farm productivity declined, perhaps tbecaue of temps, but certainly inlarge aprt because of soil and browse degradation from erosion afer overgrazing, that they depended more on that source for meat; this is one part of that evidence.

The mammal populations on those grounds would not be limited by the described upwelling, at least without good evidence that the upwellign area was a major feeding ground for those mammals.

Not to mention that I dont see good evidence for a good link between alterations in the upwellign and local temperatures.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>re 58:</p>
<p>George, Ive read that.  &#8220;Marine&#8221; does not mean &#8220;fish.&#8221;  We know the Norse ate marine mammals, mostly hunted during summer expeditions to calving grounds north of the settlements. There is also evidence that as local farm productivity declined, perhaps tbecaue of temps, but certainly inlarge aprt because of soil and browse degradation from erosion afer overgrazing, that they depended more on that source for meat; this is one part of that evidence.</p>
<p>The mammal populations on those grounds would not be limited by the described upwelling, at least without good evidence that the upwellign area was a major feeding ground for those mammals.</p>
<p>Not to mention that I dont see good evidence for a good link between alterations in the upwellign and local temperatures.</p>
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	<item>
		<title>By: Lee</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2006/05/03/construct-the-future-of-climate/#comment-50106</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Lee]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 07 May 2006 01:13:33 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=655#comment-50106</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[RE the roots: There are many possibilities,bincluding shallow summer burial on top of permafrost. My point is that inbthe absense of specific analysis of soil buiding processes and rate in that soil, or indicatinos of original depth, this is in fact no evidence at all.

If that ither stuff is there, it may be telling us something about depth of thaw for one season, whic is also no evidence in absense of info regardign current depths of thaw,a nd year to year variability in that depth.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>RE the roots: There are many possibilities,bincluding shallow summer burial on top of permafrost. My point is that inbthe absense of specific analysis of soil buiding processes and rate in that soil, or indicatinos of original depth, this is in fact no evidence at all.</p>
<p>If that ither stuff is there, it may be telling us something about depth of thaw for one season, whic is also no evidence in absense of info regardign current depths of thaw,a nd year to year variability in that depth.</p>
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