<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?><rss version="2.0"
	xmlns:content="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/content/"
	xmlns:dc="http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/"
	xmlns:atom="http://www.w3.org/2005/Atom"
	xmlns:sy="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/syndication/"
	xmlns:georss="http://www.georss.org/georss" xmlns:geo="http://www.w3.org/2003/01/geo/wgs84_pos#" xmlns:media="http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/"
		>
<channel>
	<title>Comments on: Detrended in Amherst</title>
	<atom:link href="http://climateaudit.org/2006/05/05/detrended-in-amherst/feed/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>http://climateaudit.org/2006/05/05/detrended-in-amherst/</link>
	<description>by Steve McIntyre</description>
	<lastBuildDate>Wed, 19 Jun 2013 10:51:34 +0000</lastBuildDate>
	<sy:updatePeriod>hourly</sy:updatePeriod>
	<sy:updateFrequency>1</sy:updateFrequency>
	<generator>http://wordpress.com/</generator>
	<item>
		<title>By: Skiphil</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2006/05/05/detrended-in-amherst/#comment-381087</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Skiphil]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 07 Dec 2012 20:22:38 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=658#comment-381087</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[More fascination with the checkered career of new AGU Fellow Michael Mann.  Doesn&#039;t this history resonate in some interesting ways with the recent episodes of Gergis, Karoly et al (2012)....??]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>More fascination with the checkered career of new AGU Fellow Michael Mann.  Doesn&#8217;t this history resonate in some interesting ways with the recent episodes of Gergis, Karoly et al (2012)&#8230;.??</p>
]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>By: Climategatekeeping: the Nature Intervention &#171; Climate Audit</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2006/05/05/detrended-in-amherst/#comment-214348</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Climategatekeeping: the Nature Intervention &#171; Climate Audit]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 05 Jan 2010 16:42:57 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=658#comment-214348</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[[...] MBH98 Corrigendum (July 2004) also check-kited Mann et al (Clim Chg submitted) (see here) In passing, the MBH Corrigendum was not externally peer reviewed &#8211; a point directly [...]]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] MBH98 Corrigendum (July 2004) also check-kited Mann et al (Clim Chg submitted) (see here) In passing, the MBH Corrigendum was not externally peer reviewed &#8211; a point directly [...]</p>
]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>By: Michael Jankowski</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2006/05/05/detrended-in-amherst/#comment-50236</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Michael Jankowski]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 09 May 2006 17:07:03 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=658#comment-50236</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[&lt;blockquote&gt;However, these results are in large part dependent on a detrending step not used by MBH, which is physically inappropriate and &lt;em&gt;statistically not required&lt;/em&gt;.&lt;/blockquote&gt;
So that detrending step was &quot;statistically not required?&quot;  What ever happened to being statistically &quot;robust?&quot;

&lt;blockquote&gt;I have never seen any evidence that Mann, Wahl or any associate have approached either 1, or 2.&lt;/blockquote&gt;
That&#039;s because they&#039;ve &quot;moved-on.&quot;]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<blockquote><p>However, these results are in large part dependent on a detrending step not used by MBH, which is physically inappropriate and <em>statistically not required</em>.</p></blockquote>
<p>So that detrending step was &#8220;statistically not required?&#8221;  What ever happened to being statistically &#8220;robust?&#8221;</p>
<blockquote><p>I have never seen any evidence that Mann, Wahl or any associate have approached either 1, or 2.</p></blockquote>
<p>That&#8217;s because they&#8217;ve &#8220;moved-on.&#8221;</p>
]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>By: jae</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2006/05/05/detrended-in-amherst/#comment-50235</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[jae]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 08 May 2006 23:32:26 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=658#comment-50235</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[What a shell game!  You really do have to keep your eyes on the pea!]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>What a shell game!  You really do have to keep your eyes on the pea!</p>
]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>By: Jean S</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2006/05/05/detrended-in-amherst/#comment-50234</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Jean S]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 08 May 2006 11:27:43 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=658#comment-50234</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[re #15: Steve, you clearly fell into Mannian word trap ;) Let&#039;s see:
&lt;blockquote&gt;MBH98: correlation r and squared-correlation r^2 statistics are also determined&lt;/blockquote&gt;
Yes, but there is no mentioning of those calculated for the &lt;em&gt;temperature reconstructions&lt;/em&gt;.
&lt;blockquote&gt;Mann Dec 2004: Our reconstruction passes both RE and R^2 verification statistics if calculated correctly.&lt;/blockquote&gt;
Now the reduction of error (RE), usually called the &lt;em&gt;coefficient of determination&lt;/em&gt; and called &quot;conventional &#039;resolved variance&#039;&quot; in MBH98, is usually denoted with the capital letter, i.e., R^2. So RE=R^2 :) Also, even if you take R^2 to be the squared sample correlation coefficient, the result holds if &quot;calculated correctly&quot;! This is because in the simple linear regression (one predictor) R^2=r^2.
&lt;blockquote&gt;Mann to NAS Panel Mar 2006: I did not calculate the verification r2 statistic. That would be a foolish and incorrect thing to do.&lt;/blockquote&gt;
Again correct. His computer may or may not have calculated those, very likely he did not do that himself :) It would be foolish since his computer can do it much better, and incorrect because it just might show that there is no statistical skill in his recostructions.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>re #15: Steve, you clearly fell into Mannian word trap <img src='http://s1.wp.com/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_wink.gif' alt=';)' class='wp-smiley' />  Let&#8217;s see:</p>
<blockquote><p>MBH98: correlation r and squared-correlation r^2 statistics are also determined</p></blockquote>
<p>Yes, but there is no mentioning of those calculated for the <em>temperature reconstructions</em>.</p>
<blockquote><p>Mann Dec 2004: Our reconstruction passes both RE and R^2 verification statistics if calculated correctly.</p></blockquote>
<p>Now the reduction of error (RE), usually called the <em>coefficient of determination</em> and called &#8220;conventional &#8216;resolved variance&#8217;&#8221; in MBH98, is usually denoted with the capital letter, i.e., R^2. So RE=R^2 <img src='http://s0.wp.com/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif' alt=':)' class='wp-smiley' />  Also, even if you take R^2 to be the squared sample correlation coefficient, the result holds if &#8220;calculated correctly&#8221;! This is because in the simple linear regression (one predictor) R^2=r^2.</p>
<blockquote><p>Mann to NAS Panel Mar 2006: I did not calculate the verification r2 statistic. That would be a foolish and incorrect thing to do.</p></blockquote>
<p>Again correct. His computer may or may not have calculated those, very likely he did not do that himself <img src='http://s0.wp.com/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif' alt=':)' class='wp-smiley' />  It would be foolish since his computer can do it much better, and incorrect because it just might show that there is no statistical skill in his recostructions.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>By: Steve McIntyre</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2006/05/05/detrended-in-amherst/#comment-50233</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Steve McIntyre]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 07 May 2006 12:54:29 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=658#comment-50233</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[A curiosity in the 2004 Corrigendum.  Although the MBH98 confidence intervals were supposedly increased in MBH99, there is no mention of this in the Corrigendum. In fact, the confidence intervals here http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v430/n6995/extref/FigureData/nhmean.txt are unchanged from MBH98.

A couple of days ago, realclimate was huffing and puffing about how an amendment published by VZGT in an &quot;obscure&quot; journal was an insufficient correction - leaving aside the issue of whether detrended-nondetrended is germane to the point.  GRL is not &quot;obscure&quot;, but neither is it Nature. If Mann found that the confidence intervals published in NAture were wrong, isn&#039;t that the place that he should have pointed this out? And even if he had failed to previously do so, how could he justify not doing so in the 2004 Corrigendum?]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>A curiosity in the 2004 Corrigendum.  Although the MBH98 confidence intervals were supposedly increased in MBH99, there is no mention of this in the Corrigendum. In fact, the confidence intervals here <a href="http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v430/n6995/extref/FigureData/nhmean.txt" rel="nofollow">http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v430/n6995/extref/FigureData/nhmean.txt</a> are unchanged from MBH98.</p>
<p>A couple of days ago, realclimate was huffing and puffing about how an amendment published by VZGT in an &quot;obscure&quot; journal was an insufficient correction &#8211; leaving aside the issue of whether detrended-nondetrended is germane to the point.  GRL is not &quot;obscure&quot;, but neither is it Nature. If Mann found that the confidence intervals published in NAture were wrong, isn&#8217;t that the place that he should have pointed this out? And even if he had failed to previously do so, how could he justify not doing so in the 2004 Corrigendum?</p>
]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>By: Steve McIntyre</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2006/05/05/detrended-in-amherst/#comment-50232</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Steve McIntyre]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 07 May 2006 12:46:45 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=658#comment-50232</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[#21.  But let&#039;s suppose that someone wanted to check the &quot;inspection&quot; through an actual statistic. We requested these very residuals in December 2003  or alternatively the results of the individual steps. Mann refused, the NSF refused, Nature refused.

The properties of the 1820 step differ from the properties of the 1400 step. Mann presumably noticed this in 1999 - hence the different confidence intervals in MBH99.

Did he even carry out a Mannian &quot;inspection&quot; on the residuals from steps other than AD1820?  Or is this one more time, like the verification r2, where the results for the 1820 step wre reported but not the results for the problematic early step?

I wish that others would write to Nature and ask for the results of the individual steps so that these &quot;inspections&quot; can be checked.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>#21.  But let&#8217;s suppose that someone wanted to check the &quot;inspection&quot; through an actual statistic. We requested these very residuals in December 2003  or alternatively the results of the individual steps. Mann refused, the NSF refused, Nature refused.</p>
<p>The properties of the 1820 step differ from the properties of the 1400 step. Mann presumably noticed this in 1999 &#8211; hence the different confidence intervals in MBH99.</p>
<p>Did he even carry out a Mannian &quot;inspection&quot; on the residuals from steps other than AD1820?  Or is this one more time, like the verification r2, where the results for the 1820 step wre reported but not the results for the problematic early step?</p>
<p>I wish that others would write to Nature and ask for the results of the individual steps so that these &quot;inspections&quot; can be checked.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>By: Jean S</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2006/05/05/detrended-in-amherst/#comment-50231</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Jean S]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 07 May 2006 12:30:53 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=658#comment-50231</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[re #13: In the caliberation period, MBH98 used a highly reliable test to confirm that residuals are indeed i.i.d. (Gaussian and uncorrelated). The test used is a standard Mannian procedure known to the rest of the world as &quot;inspection&quot; ;) This is described in MBH98 as follows:
&lt;blockquote&gt;The spectra of the calibration residuals for these quantities were, furthermore, found to be approximately &quot;white&#039;, showing little evidence for preferred or deficiently resolved timescales in the calibration process.&lt;/blockquote&gt;]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>re #13: In the caliberation period, MBH98 used a highly reliable test to confirm that residuals are indeed i.i.d. (Gaussian and uncorrelated). The test used is a standard Mannian procedure known to the rest of the world as &#8220;inspection&#8221; <img src='http://s1.wp.com/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_wink.gif' alt=';)' class='wp-smiley' />  This is described in MBH98 as follows:</p>
<blockquote><p>The spectra of the calibration residuals for these quantities were, furthermore, found to be approximately &#8220;white&#8217;, showing little evidence for preferred or deficiently resolved timescales in the calibration process.</p></blockquote>
]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>By: Lubo Motl</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2006/05/05/detrended-in-amherst/#comment-50230</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Lubo Motl]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 06 May 2006 18:24:06 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=658#comment-50230</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Dear Steve,

I claim discovery or at least co-discovery of the fact that Al Gore invented algorithms. ;-)

http://www.google.com/search?q=%22al+gore%22+%22only+discovery%22+algorithms

All the best
Lubos]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Dear Steve,</p>
<p>I claim discovery or at least co-discovery of the fact that Al Gore invented algorithms. <img src='http://s1.wp.com/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_wink.gif' alt=';-)' class='wp-smiley' /> </p>
<p><a href="http://www.google.com/search?q=%22al+gore%22+%22only+discovery%22+algorithms" rel="nofollow">http://www.google.com/search?q=%22al+gore%22+%22only+discovery%22+algorithms</a></p>
<p>All the best<br />
Lubos</p>
]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>By: David Stockwell</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2006/05/05/detrended-in-amherst/#comment-50229</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[David Stockwell]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 06 May 2006 15:57:37 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=658#comment-50229</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Re: #17. Oh I get it. Bradley or Hughes did the calculation of r2.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Re: #17. Oh I get it. Bradley or Hughes did the calculation of r2.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
</channel>
</rss>
