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	<title>Comments on: Rejected Nature Correspondence</title>
	<atom:link href="http://climateaudit.org/2006/08/15/rejected-nature-correspondence/feed/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>http://climateaudit.org/2006/08/15/rejected-nature-correspondence/</link>
	<description>by Steve McIntyre</description>
	<lastBuildDate>Fri, 24 May 2013 05:04:43 +0000</lastBuildDate>
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		<title>By: Gerhard H. W.</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2006/08/15/rejected-nature-correspondence/#comment-60221</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Gerhard H. W.]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 10 May 2007 15:07:57 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=782#comment-60221</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[re: #15:

One such a book is:

&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.takenbystorm.info/&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;Taken by Storm&lt;/a&gt;
by Christopher Essex and Ross McKitrick

Really a book worth reading.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>re: #15:</p>
<p>One such a book is:</p>
<p><a href="http://www.takenbystorm.info/" rel="nofollow">Taken by Storm</a><br />
by Christopher Essex and Ross McKitrick</p>
<p>Really a book worth reading.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>By: Steve McIntyre</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2006/08/15/rejected-nature-correspondence/#comment-60220</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Steve McIntyre]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 04 May 2007 10:52:07 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=782#comment-60220</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Maxine Clark, the Nature editor of this correspondence, wrote in to a blog (thanks Bihop Hill) saying:

&lt;blockquote&gt;I don&#039;t know why you think the climate scientists don&#039;t archive their data. I&#039;ve never heard that nor can I believe it, as the IPCC process is a massive exercise in analysing each other&#039;s data and models.&lt;/blockquote&gt;

Bishop Hill replied:
&lt;blockquote&gt;You will of course know of Steve McIntyre&#039;s greivances over access to climate science data. The Climate Audit blog is chock full of examples of refusals to release data.&lt;/blockquote&gt;

Maxine Clark replied:

&lt;blockquote&gt;Yes, I have had dealings with Prof McIntrye, and I am afraid I do not share your view of his actions. &lt;/blockquote&gt;

I wrote in to the blog inquiring about what actions. I was thinking back to 2004 mainly because of the VZ blog entry and didn&#039;t recall her name in this context. Now I do. I don&#039;t understand how she can say that she&#039;s &quot;never heard that climate scientists don&#039;t archive their data&quot;.  This was discussed in the correspondence above. I urge interested readers to consider &lt;a href=&quot;http://data.climateaudit.org/correspondence/nature.040810.htm&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;our request letter to Nature of August 10, 2004&lt;/a&gt; requesting relevant data from MBH that remains unarchived to this day:

&lt;blockquote&gt;
We are disappointed that Nature has decided not to publish our submitted Communication, especially as the principal grounds appear to be the small word allotment in the Communications Arising section. We respectfully disagree with the conjecture that our work would be of interest to only a few specialists. The original Mann et al. paper has been widely applied and our previous commentary attracted considerable public interest. Be that as it may, the referees expressly encouraged us to continue our analysis of MBH98 and of multiproxy calculations generally and one of them expressly stated that our efforts should not be “hampered”.

In this spirit we are writing to reiterate long-standing requests for data and results from MBH98, which we have already communicated on several occasions. You had stated that these requests would be resolved in the new SI, but unfortunately this is not the case. While you are undoubtedly weary of this correspondence, our original request for disclosure was reasonable and remains reasonable. It is only the unresponsiveness of the original authors that is placing a burden on you and your associates. Some of these items have been outstanding for 7 months. They were not attended to in the new SI and need to be dealt with promptly.

In particular, we still seek:

1)the results of the 11 “experiments” referred to in MBH98, including:
(a)   the temperature principal components (69 series for all 11 steps);
(b)   the NH temperature reconstruction (11 series from the start of each calculation step to 1980);
(c)   the residuals (11 series from the start of each calculation step to 1980).
2) a list of the 159 series said to have been used in MBH98.
3) source code.

Since their claims of skill in reconstructing past climates depend on these “experiments” and their estimation of confidence intervals is based on the residual series, it is unnecessary to explain why these data are of interest. Again, we have repeatedly requested this data.
&lt;/blockquote&gt;

Their refusal is&lt;a href=&quot;http://data.climateaudit.org/correspondence/nature.040907.htm&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt; here &lt;/a&gt; saying in respect to the request (1) for the results of the individual steps as (&quot;experiments&quot;):

&lt;blockquote&gt;And with regard to the additional experimental results that you request, our view is that this too goes beyond an obligation on the part of the authors, given that the full listing of the source data and documentation of the procedures used to generate the final findings are provided in the corrected Supplementary Information. (This is the most that we would normally require of any author.)&lt;/blockquote&gt;

I find it impossible to believe that they do not &quot;normally&quot; require authors to provide results of individual &quot;experiments&quot;, especially  after a Corrigendum has been required. If so, that is a very poor policy.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Maxine Clark, the Nature editor of this correspondence, wrote in to a blog (thanks Bihop Hill) saying:</p>
<blockquote><p>I don&#8217;t know why you think the climate scientists don&#8217;t archive their data. I&#8217;ve never heard that nor can I believe it, as the IPCC process is a massive exercise in analysing each other&#8217;s data and models.</p></blockquote>
<p>Bishop Hill replied:</p>
<blockquote><p>You will of course know of Steve McIntyre&#8217;s greivances over access to climate science data. The Climate Audit blog is chock full of examples of refusals to release data.</p></blockquote>
<p>Maxine Clark replied:</p>
<blockquote><p>Yes, I have had dealings with Prof McIntrye, and I am afraid I do not share your view of his actions. </p></blockquote>
<p>I wrote in to the blog inquiring about what actions. I was thinking back to 2004 mainly because of the VZ blog entry and didn&#8217;t recall her name in this context. Now I do. I don&#8217;t understand how she can say that she&#8217;s &#8220;never heard that climate scientists don&#8217;t archive their data&#8221;.  This was discussed in the correspondence above. I urge interested readers to consider <a href="http://data.climateaudit.org/correspondence/nature.040810.htm" rel="nofollow">our request letter to Nature of August 10, 2004</a> requesting relevant data from MBH that remains unarchived to this day:</p>
<blockquote><p>
We are disappointed that Nature has decided not to publish our submitted Communication, especially as the principal grounds appear to be the small word allotment in the Communications Arising section. We respectfully disagree with the conjecture that our work would be of interest to only a few specialists. The original Mann et al. paper has been widely applied and our previous commentary attracted considerable public interest. Be that as it may, the referees expressly encouraged us to continue our analysis of MBH98 and of multiproxy calculations generally and one of them expressly stated that our efforts should not be “hampered”.</p>
<p>In this spirit we are writing to reiterate long-standing requests for data and results from MBH98, which we have already communicated on several occasions. You had stated that these requests would be resolved in the new SI, but unfortunately this is not the case. While you are undoubtedly weary of this correspondence, our original request for disclosure was reasonable and remains reasonable. It is only the unresponsiveness of the original authors that is placing a burden on you and your associates. Some of these items have been outstanding for 7 months. They were not attended to in the new SI and need to be dealt with promptly.</p>
<p>In particular, we still seek:</p>
<p>1)the results of the 11 “experiments” referred to in MBH98, including:<br />
(a)   the temperature principal components (69 series for all 11 steps);<br />
(b)   the NH temperature reconstruction (11 series from the start of each calculation step to 1980);<br />
(c)   the residuals (11 series from the start of each calculation step to 1980).<br />
2) a list of the 159 series said to have been used in MBH98.<br />
3) source code.</p>
<p>Since their claims of skill in reconstructing past climates depend on these “experiments” and their estimation of confidence intervals is based on the residual series, it is unnecessary to explain why these data are of interest. Again, we have repeatedly requested this data.
</p></blockquote>
<p>Their refusal is<a href="http://data.climateaudit.org/correspondence/nature.040907.htm" rel="nofollow"> here </a> saying in respect to the request (1) for the results of the individual steps as (&#8220;experiments&#8221;):</p>
<blockquote><p>And with regard to the additional experimental results that you request, our view is that this too goes beyond an obligation on the part of the authors, given that the full listing of the source data and documentation of the procedures used to generate the final findings are provided in the corrected Supplementary Information. (This is the most that we would normally require of any author.)</p></blockquote>
<p>I find it impossible to believe that they do not &#8220;normally&#8221; require authors to provide results of individual &#8220;experiments&#8221;, especially  after a Corrigendum has been required. If so, that is a very poor policy.</p>
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		<title>By: bender</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2006/08/15/rejected-nature-correspondence/#comment-60219</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[bender]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 06 Sep 2006 04:13:58 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=782#comment-60219</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Actually, Mark A York, not every skeptic who posts at CA believes there is a major conspiracy going on. &lt;strong&gt;If you read&lt;/strong&gt; the Ritalin thread you will see what I mean:
&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=802#comment-44413&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;There is no conspiracy&lt;/a&gt;
But maybe you don&#039;t like reading.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Actually, Mark A York, not every skeptic who posts at CA believes there is a major conspiracy going on. <strong>If you read</strong> the Ritalin thread you will see what I mean:<br />
<a href="http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=802#comment-44413" rel="nofollow">There is no conspiracy</a><br />
But maybe you don&#8217;t like reading.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>By: bender</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2006/08/15/rejected-nature-correspondence/#comment-60218</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[bender]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 06 Sep 2006 04:06:54 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=782#comment-60218</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Ah, you&#039;re back, Mark A. York. Done your reading? Can you now tell us in your own words how Michael Mann&#039;s pattern matching algorithm, or RegEM, works? Dodging key questions in the area of quantitative analysis is not going to increase traffic on your blog any. This is a serious discussion.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Ah, you&#8217;re back, Mark A. York. Done your reading? Can you now tell us in your own words how Michael Mann&#8217;s pattern matching algorithm, or RegEM, works? Dodging key questions in the area of quantitative analysis is not going to increase traffic on your blog any. This is a serious discussion.</p>
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		<title>By: Howard Wiseman</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2006/08/15/rejected-nature-correspondence/#comment-60217</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Howard Wiseman]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 25 Aug 2006 18:48:23 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=782#comment-60217</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I quoted Feynman earlier not only to question the scientific process used by Mann et. al. and their apparent unwillingness to participate in genuine peer review, but also as a warning to the CO2 forcing skeptics (me included)that the goal should be scientific truth. Any reactive response based on a bias towards a particular outcome carries the danger of self-delusion and outright error. It is important to see if MBH can be replicted and to test the underlying data sources. It is equally important that others undertake their own scientific inquiry on this issue, with the highest levels of rigor, self-examination and transparency. I have no horse in this race and think the entire carbon issue goes away in 150 years with advent of superior energy sources. The fate of mankind hardly lies in the balance here, except to the extent that science gets abused as a tool used interest groups and governments to arrogate more power over the conduct of life by the common masses. Scientific integrity must be defended to the greatest extent possible, as it stands as the sole bulwark against those whose only interest in science is how it aids the accumulation and preservation of political power.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I quoted Feynman earlier not only to question the scientific process used by Mann et. al. and their apparent unwillingness to participate in genuine peer review, but also as a warning to the CO2 forcing skeptics (me included)that the goal should be scientific truth. Any reactive response based on a bias towards a particular outcome carries the danger of self-delusion and outright error. It is important to see if MBH can be replicted and to test the underlying data sources. It is equally important that others undertake their own scientific inquiry on this issue, with the highest levels of rigor, self-examination and transparency. I have no horse in this race and think the entire carbon issue goes away in 150 years with advent of superior energy sources. The fate of mankind hardly lies in the balance here, except to the extent that science gets abused as a tool used interest groups and governments to arrogate more power over the conduct of life by the common masses. Scientific integrity must be defended to the greatest extent possible, as it stands as the sole bulwark against those whose only interest in science is how it aids the accumulation and preservation of political power.</p>
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		<title>By: Kenneth Blumenfeld</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2006/08/15/rejected-nature-correspondence/#comment-60216</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Kenneth Blumenfeld]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 18 Aug 2006 21:41:54 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=782#comment-60216</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[My google scholar search of &quot;Mann Bradley Hughes&quot; yielded 504 citations for MBH98 and 490 for MBH99.

Wallace and Gutzler&#039;s teleconnections classic,

JM WALLACE, DS GUTZLER - Monthly Weather Review, 1981
109, No. 4, pp. 784--812. Teleconnections in the Geopotential Height Field during the Northern Hemisphere Winter,

was &quot;cited&quot; 781 times.

Interestingly, a paper that cited it, which also featured Wallace,  clocks in with 1003...and it was written in 1997.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>My google scholar search of &#8220;Mann Bradley Hughes&#8221; yielded 504 citations for MBH98 and 490 for MBH99.</p>
<p>Wallace and Gutzler&#8217;s teleconnections classic,</p>
<p>JM WALLACE, DS GUTZLER &#8211; Monthly Weather Review, 1981<br />
109, No. 4, pp. 784&#8211;812. Teleconnections in the Geopotential Height Field during the Northern Hemisphere Winter,</p>
<p>was &#8220;cited&#8221; 781 times.</p>
<p>Interestingly, a paper that cited it, which also featured Wallace,  clocks in with 1003&#8230;and it was written in 1997.</p>
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		<title>By: McCall</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2006/08/15/rejected-nature-correspondence/#comment-60215</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[McCall]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 18 Aug 2006 20:37:27 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=782#comment-60215</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[re: Hansen in 111, I also checked his pub&#039;s -- and other than that already found by Mr McIntyre in #118 (Charlson ... Hansen &#039;92), Dr Hansen&#039;s 3-D Modeling has also been cited extensively (but only 200+).

A biproduct to the Hansen check, there were big ice-core related citations for Vostok: J. R. Petit et al in Nature&#039;99 (900+), and Greenland: W. Dansgaard et al in Nature &#039;93 (800+).  Two rough indicators about this: Nature hit gold with these papers in 90s (we&#039;ll see how thay do, now that they&#039;ve gone &quot;bunker&quot;); and that ice core proxy citations are in a similar elite league as tree rings (at least for now).]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>re: Hansen in 111, I also checked his pub&#8217;s &#8212; and other than that already found by Mr McIntyre in #118 (Charlson &#8230; Hansen &#8217;92), Dr Hansen&#8217;s 3-D Modeling has also been cited extensively (but only 200+).</p>
<p>A biproduct to the Hansen check, there were big ice-core related citations for Vostok: J. R. Petit et al in Nature&#8217;99 (900+), and Greenland: W. Dansgaard et al in Nature &#8217;93 (800+).  Two rough indicators about this: Nature hit gold with these papers in 90s (we&#8217;ll see how thay do, now that they&#8217;ve gone &#8220;bunker&#8221;); and that ice core proxy citations are in a similar elite league as tree rings (at least for now).</p>
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		<title>By: Mark T.</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2006/08/15/rejected-nature-correspondence/#comment-60214</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Mark T.]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 18 Aug 2006 16:54:58 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=782#comment-60214</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[&lt;blockquote&gt;Others may have different defintions and statistical estimation methods.&lt;/blockquote&gt;

Of course, most others that use such methods prefer to stick with the way they were intended to be used.

Based on what I&#039;ve seen in his regem code, standard use is not his forte.

Mark]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<blockquote><p>Others may have different defintions and statistical estimation methods.</p></blockquote>
<p>Of course, most others that use such methods prefer to stick with the way they were intended to be used.</p>
<p>Based on what I&#8217;ve seen in his regem code, standard use is not his forte.</p>
<p>Mark</p>
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		<title>By: bender</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2006/08/15/rejected-nature-correspondence/#comment-60213</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[bender]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 18 Aug 2006 16:01:50 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=782#comment-60213</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Hate to be Clintonesque, but it all hinges on how you define the word &quot;the&quot;.

&lt;blockquote&gt;The warmth of the 1990s was outside the range of variability as indicated in our reconstruction of past Northern Hemisphere temperature variations, taking &lt;strong&gt;the&lt;/strong&gt; uncertainties in the reconstruction into account&lt;/blockquote&gt;

This is true if you accept &lt;strong&gt;the&lt;/strong&gt; uncertainties, as &lt;strong&gt;he&lt;/strong&gt; chose to define and estimate them. Others may have different defintions and statistical estimation methods.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Hate to be Clintonesque, but it all hinges on how you define the word &#8220;the&#8221;.</p>
<blockquote><p>The warmth of the 1990s was outside the range of variability as indicated in our reconstruction of past Northern Hemisphere temperature variations, taking <strong>the</strong> uncertainties in the reconstruction into account</p></blockquote>
<p>This is true if you accept <strong>the</strong> uncertainties, as <strong>he</strong> chose to define and estimate them. Others may have different defintions and statistical estimation methods.</p>
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		<title>By: Ken Fritsch</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2006/08/15/rejected-nature-correspondence/#comment-60212</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Ken Fritsch]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 18 Aug 2006 15:56:14 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=782#comment-60212</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Re: #98

&lt;blockquote&gt;Here&#039;s an interview with Mann that contains no hint of uncertainty.&lt;/blockquote&gt;

In fact Mann says:

&lt;blockquote&gt;The now oft-cited assertion that &quot;the 1990s are the warmest decade of at least the past 1000 years&quot; is attributable to our &#039;98 Nature article (which established the result for the last 600 years) along with an extension of our work (which extended this conclusion to the past 1000 years) which we published in the journal &quot;Geophysical Research Letters&quot; in 1999. Our Nature article established that the warmth of the 1990s was outside the range of variability as indicated in our reconstruction of past Northern Hemisphere temperature variations, taking the uncertainties in the reconstruction into account.&lt;/blockquote&gt;

When Mann can then write that he was misunderstood/misinterpreted, I would have to use a phrase coined by Chicago Bears coach, Mike Ditka:  Mann, who are you crapping?]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Re: #98</p>
<blockquote><p>Here&#8217;s an interview with Mann that contains no hint of uncertainty.</p></blockquote>
<p>In fact Mann says:</p>
<blockquote><p>The now oft-cited assertion that &#8220;the 1990s are the warmest decade of at least the past 1000 years&#8221; is attributable to our &#8217;98 Nature article (which established the result for the last 600 years) along with an extension of our work (which extended this conclusion to the past 1000 years) which we published in the journal &#8220;Geophysical Research Letters&#8221; in 1999. Our Nature article established that the warmth of the 1990s was outside the range of variability as indicated in our reconstruction of past Northern Hemisphere temperature variations, taking the uncertainties in the reconstruction into account.</p></blockquote>
<p>When Mann can then write that he was misunderstood/misinterpreted, I would have to use a phrase coined by Chicago Bears coach, Mike Ditka:  Mann, who are you crapping?</p>
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