Comments on: Mann and Emanuel 2006 #1

By: Steve Sadlov

Steve Sadlov — Mon, 04 Dec 2006 18:11:23 +0000

Speaking of possible natural cyclical influences: hurricanes-and-winter-snowfall

By: GeoS

GeoS — Sun, 22 Oct 2006 11:04:21 +0000

#6 “I live in Billings Montana. This spring we had a lot of haze in the sky”

As a very well wooded state, maybe the haze is caused by emissions from the trees. These are thought to produce aerosol particles that cause the blueish haze for example over the Smokies.

By: MarkR

MarkR — Thu, 19 Oct 2006 18:21:14 +0000

#23 It doesn’t really matter what aircraft was used, or not used. The Mann Emmanel answer would still have been wrong. The bad workman blames his tools.

By: Steve McIntyre

Steve McIntyre — Thu, 19 Oct 2006 02:06:19 +0000

#29. When you actually examine what these guys did, it makes your head sore, doesn;t it?

By: TCO

TCO — Thu, 19 Oct 2006 00:15:01 +0000

But then you lose a degree of fudging freedom. It’s so much more convenient if we can correlate to an intermediate or a forcer as we choose.

By: Eduardo Zorita

Eduardo Zorita — Wed, 18 Oct 2006 23:44:52 +0000

What I found more confusing in this paper is the design of the two statistical models. In the first one, the global SST are taken as proxy of large-scale “background large-scale warming, believed to be largely radiatively forced..”. In the second model, an estimation of the aerosol forcing is additionally included. This seems to me inconsistent. Why not take an estimation of the global radiative forcing instead of global SSTs in the first place? This would avoid the problem that in original model the global SSTs, as predictor, already includes the predictand in itself, and also part of the aerosol forcing. Form the physical point of view, using the global radiative forcing would be the logical way to proceed, I think.

By: TCO

TCO — Wed, 18 Oct 2006 20:32:23 +0000

Ken,

I agree that my remarks come accross as combative to the students, but that’s not the key point. I have nothing against people taking survey courses. It is just not the same thing as Bender like entities, who are being trained/required to rip into things. It’s not a historiography course, with requirement to do original research. That’s fine. Just realize that when you ask for detailed analysis, that’s not the mode here. Coolio?

By: welikerocks

welikerocks — Wed, 18 Oct 2006 15:28:05 +0000

Source: University of Wisconsin-Madison
Date: October 11, 2006

” “People didn’t understand the potential impact of dust until satellites allowed us to see how incredibly expansive these dust storms can be,” says Evan. “Sometimes during the summer, sunsets in Puerto Rico are beautiful because of all the dust in the sky. Well, that dust comes all the way from Africa.”"

“”Amato Evan, a researcher at the UW-Madison Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies, has found a surprising link between hurricane frequency in the Atlantic Ocean and dust storms that periodically rise up from the Sahara desert and move west. “”

there’s a photo.

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2006/10/061010022224.htm

By: Dane

Dane — Mon, 16 Oct 2006 22:27:56 +0000

#23 Steve B,
Now your getting an insite into how government works. Thats record time from my experience. They are to be applauded.

By: Dane

Dane — Mon, 16 Oct 2006 21:35:19 +0000

Wasn’t someone laughing at someone else a while back when they brought up space dust and its potential impacts? I think it may play a small role in all of this, who knows? its not constant, and may in fact come down in relatively large amounts at times, not evenly distributed across the sphere. I believe the global average was on the order of tons per day.