Maybe if the climate game were to be replayed it would be the Atlantic basin that would be inhaling and one of the others that would be exhaling.

Possibly in the Kossin world, but unlikely in the Holland version. Noticed that Holland is not saying that the “current hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin is a direct result of greehouse warming” but rather “current hurricane activity is a direct result of greenhouse warming” and all based on a presentation confined to Atlantic data. Holland’s concluding statement can be quoted directly by the popular media with no alterations required.

Trends or transients?

Thanks to RPJ’s links to Kossin’s and Holland’s views on TS intensities and numbers, the underlying data validity and what it means vis a vis SST and global warming, my serving penance has become easier — providing my following summaries are reasonably accurate.

J. Kossin shows how trends in TS intensities can be inflated by using what he describes as data with inconsistencies. He shows after reanalyzing TS intensity data from around the globe and making it “homogenous” that, while the Atlantic basin continues to show an upward trend, the globe as a whole does not. He asks the question why the Atlantic is acting so differently when the SSTs have increased in all areas analyzed and suggests that a more complete view can be obtained through “better physical understanding”.

G. Holland confines his arguments and observations to the Atlantic basin and shows dramatically increasing numbers of tropical cyclones (TC) in that area over the past 100 years (he shows data for the numbers going back over 150 years). He further claims that in this basin and over this time period that SST leads TC increases and explains over 60% of the variance in TC numbers. Holland sees no trend over this time period of the proportion of major hurricanes to TC, but points out that the number of major hurricanes shows the same dramatic increasing trend as the number of TC. Finally Holland finishes with the following statement: “The strong relationship between increases in storm and hurricane numbers and increases in SSTs leads to the inescapable conclusion that the majority of current hurricane activity is a direct result of greenhouse warming.”

I know which view/approach I prefer here and I doubt much that it will be the one that the popular media will be quoting.

http://www.ametsoc.org/atmospolicy/documents/Kossin102006.pdf

All presentations:

http://www.ametsoc.org/atmospolicy/environmentalsssarchives.html

No need to be reminded…You’ve “moved on” from that previous post, lol…

Jonathan, thanks for reminding me that I have moved on. I declare that I have officially moved on, but not before I serve penance by detailing the differences in the views of Greg Holland and Jim Kossin.

Hurricanes tend to bounce and jump around and the centers are not always easy to find. In reanalysis, the analyzers use the best information available and develop a best-track for the records.

For some reason, he wants smooth tracks. I cannot guess why that would help whatever he’s doing with the data.

His answer took 53 words and was written in Academic Lite, but I guess it sounds better than, “I smoothed the data”.