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	<title>Comments on: Juckes and the Indigirka River Alter Ego</title>
	<atom:link href="http://climateaudit.org/2006/11/09/juckes-and-the-indigirka-river-alter-ego/feed/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>http://climateaudit.org/2006/11/09/juckes-and-the-indigirka-river-alter-ego/</link>
	<description>by Steve McIntyre</description>
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	<item>
		<title>By: Willis on &#8220;Getting authors to respond to questions&#8221; &#171; Climate Audit</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2006/11/09/juckes-and-the-indigirka-river-alter-ego/#comment-247546</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Willis on &#8220;Getting authors to respond to questions&#8221; &#171; Climate Audit]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 04 Dec 2010 18:12:57 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=901#comment-247546</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[[...] (Juckes and the Indigirka River Alter Ego) [...]]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] (Juckes and the Indigirka River Alter Ego) [...]</p>
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		<title>By: volcano vapor</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2006/11/09/juckes-and-the-indigirka-river-alter-ego/#comment-211446</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[volcano vapor]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 22 Dec 2009 09:18:10 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=901#comment-211446</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Hey there Captain hows hanging  today]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Hey there Captain hows hanging  today</p>
]]></content:encoded>
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	<item>
		<title>By: Ferdinand Engelbeen</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2006/11/09/juckes-and-the-indigirka-river-alter-ego/#comment-69735</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Ferdinand Engelbeen]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 09 Nov 2006 20:06:15 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=901#comment-69735</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I wonder why another upper Northern series is not used at all: the over 7,000 years tree ring chronology of Finnish Lapland, which is presented on the walls of the Inari Sami museum (North Finland), and extends to 2001.

The graph is presented at page 14 of the &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.pages.unibe.ch/products/newsletters/nl2003_2.pdf&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;Pages&lt;/a&gt; newsletter (2003)
Title: &quot;Reconstruction of Low- and High-Frequency Summer Temperature Changes From a Tree-Ring Archive of Fennoscandian Forest-Limit Scots Pine&quot;
The area of sampling was situated between 68° and 70° N, 20° and 30° E, in northern Finland. The area is somewhat 100-600 km (North-)East of Tornetrask (Sweden).

While there is a relative good correlation between local summer (July) temperatures, the result is quite remarkable: an absent MWP, a (relative) warm 16th century, a cold 19th century, warming up to ~1940 and cooling thereafter (another divergence problem...). Seems not very fit to include in the preferred proxies...

The original article was published in 2002 by Eronen ea. (including Briffa) in &quot;The Holocene&quot;.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I wonder why another upper Northern series is not used at all: the over 7,000 years tree ring chronology of Finnish Lapland, which is presented on the walls of the Inari Sami museum (North Finland), and extends to 2001.</p>
<p>The graph is presented at page 14 of the <a href="http://www.pages.unibe.ch/products/newsletters/nl2003_2.pdf" rel="nofollow">Pages</a> newsletter (2003)<br />
Title: &#8220;Reconstruction of Low- and High-Frequency Summer Temperature Changes From a Tree-Ring Archive of Fennoscandian Forest-Limit Scots Pine&#8221;<br />
The area of sampling was situated between 68° and 70° N, 20° and 30° E, in northern Finland. The area is somewhat 100-600 km (North-)East of Tornetrask (Sweden).</p>
<p>While there is a relative good correlation between local summer (July) temperatures, the result is quite remarkable: an absent MWP, a (relative) warm 16th century, a cold 19th century, warming up to ~1940 and cooling thereafter (another divergence problem&#8230;). Seems not very fit to include in the preferred proxies&#8230;</p>
<p>The original article was published in 2002 by Eronen ea. (including Briffa) in &#8220;The Holocene&#8221;.</p>
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	<item>
		<title>By: Follow the Money</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2006/11/09/juckes-and-the-indigirka-river-alter-ego/#comment-69734</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Follow the Money]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 09 Nov 2006 19:25:23 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=901#comment-69734</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Barclay E MacDonald writes:

&lt;blockquote&gt;They should have cleared all this up a long time ago. &lt;/blockquote&gt;

Why would they do that?  Would that pay better?]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Barclay E MacDonald writes:</p>
<blockquote><p>They should have cleared all this up a long time ago. </p></blockquote>
<p>Why would they do that?  Would that pay better?</p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>By: Steve McIntyre</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2006/11/09/juckes-and-the-indigirka-river-alter-ego/#comment-69733</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Steve McIntyre]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 09 Nov 2006 19:17:40 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=901#comment-69733</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The low 536 event in tree rings has been commented on elsewhere. I think that Jacoby has an article on it.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The low 536 event in tree rings has been commented on elsewhere. I think that Jacoby has an article on it.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>By: John A</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2006/11/09/juckes-and-the-indigirka-river-alter-ego/#comment-69732</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[John A]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 09 Nov 2006 18:54:28 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=901#comment-69732</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Here&#039;s something interesting. In the Indigirka/Yakutia reconstruction is a big drop in growth somewhere between 525 and 550 CE. This big drop corresponds to a posited big climatic event of some kind which has been hypothesized to have produced (or enhanced) the Dark Ages Cold Period.

Such a climatic event has been posited to be a meteor strike or a very large volcanic eruption. The meteor strike hypothesis has been less popular because a) where&#039;s the crater and b) where&#039;s the iridium anomaly usually associated with a meteor impact?

The alternative is a supervolcanic eruption (also called a superplinian or hyperplinian eruption). &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.ees1.lanl.gov/Wohletz/Krakatau.htm&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;This webpage&lt;/a&gt; by Ken Wohlenz of Las Alamos National Laboratory hypothesizes that there was a supervolcanic caldera of which Krakatoa was a part, which erupted around 535 CE.

&lt;blockquote&gt;Modern history has its origins in the tumultuous 6th and 7th centuries. During this period agricultural failures and the emergence of the plague contributed to: (1) the demise of ancient super cities, old Persia, Indonesian civilizations, the Nasca culture of South America, and southern Arabian civilizations; (2) the schism of the Roman Empire with the conception of many nation states and the re-birth of a united China; and (3) the origin and spread of Islam while Arian Christianity disappeared.

In his book, Catastrophe An Investigation into the Origins of the Modern World, author David Keys explores history and archaeology to link all of these human upheavals to climate destabilization brought on by a natural catastrophe, with strong evidence from tree-ring and ice-core data that it occurred in 535 AD.

With no supporting evidence for an impact-related event, I worked with Keys to narrow down the possibilities for a volcanic eruption that could affect both hemispheres and bring about several decades of disrupted climate patterns, most notably colder and drier weather in Europe and Asia, where descriptions of months with diminished sun light, persistent cold, and anomalous summer snow falls are recorded in 6th-century written accounts. Writings from China and Indonesia describe rare atmospheric phenomena that possibly point to a volcano in the Indonesian arc.

Although radiocarbon dating of eruptions in that part of the world are spotty, there is strong bathymetric and volcanic evidence that Krakatau might have experienced a huge caldera eruption.

Accordingly, I encouraged a scientific expedition to be led by Haraldur Sigurdsson to the area. The expedition found a thick pyroclastic deposit, bracketed by appropriate radiometric dates, that suggests such a caldera collapse of a &quot;Proto-Krakatau&quot; did occur perhaps in the 6th century. Bathymetry indicates a caldera some 40 to 60 km in diameter that, with collapse below sea level, could have formed the Sunda Straits, separating Java from Sumatra, as suggested by ancient Javanese historical writings. Such a caldera collapse likely involved eruption of several hundred cubic kilometers of pyroclastic debris, several times larger than the 1815 eruption of Tambora.

This hypothetical eruption likely involved magma-seawater interaction, as past eruptions of Krakatau document, but on a tremendous scale. Computer simulations of the eruption indicate that the interaction could have produced a plume from 25 to &gt;50 km high, carrying from 50 to 100 km3 of vaporized seawater into the atmosphere. Although most of the vapor condenses and falls out from low altitudes, still large quantities are lofted into the stratosphere, forming ice clouds with super fine ($latex \lt $10 mm)&lt;/blockquote&gt;

It&#039;s only interesting because the proxy (which must be from subfossil wood) clearly shows something happening which dramatically reduced tree growth in Siberia nearly simultaneously to the hypothesized eruption.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Here&#8217;s something interesting. In the Indigirka/Yakutia reconstruction is a big drop in growth somewhere between 525 and 550 CE. This big drop corresponds to a posited big climatic event of some kind which has been hypothesized to have produced (or enhanced) the Dark Ages Cold Period.</p>
<p>Such a climatic event has been posited to be a meteor strike or a very large volcanic eruption. The meteor strike hypothesis has been less popular because a) where&#8217;s the crater and b) where&#8217;s the iridium anomaly usually associated with a meteor impact?</p>
<p>The alternative is a supervolcanic eruption (also called a superplinian or hyperplinian eruption). <a href="http://www.ees1.lanl.gov/Wohletz/Krakatau.htm" rel="nofollow">This webpage</a> by Ken Wohlenz of Las Alamos National Laboratory hypothesizes that there was a supervolcanic caldera of which Krakatoa was a part, which erupted around 535 CE.</p>
<blockquote><p>Modern history has its origins in the tumultuous 6th and 7th centuries. During this period agricultural failures and the emergence of the plague contributed to: (1) the demise of ancient super cities, old Persia, Indonesian civilizations, the Nasca culture of South America, and southern Arabian civilizations; (2) the schism of the Roman Empire with the conception of many nation states and the re-birth of a united China; and (3) the origin and spread of Islam while Arian Christianity disappeared.</p>
<p>In his book, Catastrophe An Investigation into the Origins of the Modern World, author David Keys explores history and archaeology to link all of these human upheavals to climate destabilization brought on by a natural catastrophe, with strong evidence from tree-ring and ice-core data that it occurred in 535 AD.</p>
<p>With no supporting evidence for an impact-related event, I worked with Keys to narrow down the possibilities for a volcanic eruption that could affect both hemispheres and bring about several decades of disrupted climate patterns, most notably colder and drier weather in Europe and Asia, where descriptions of months with diminished sun light, persistent cold, and anomalous summer snow falls are recorded in 6th-century written accounts. Writings from China and Indonesia describe rare atmospheric phenomena that possibly point to a volcano in the Indonesian arc.</p>
<p>Although radiocarbon dating of eruptions in that part of the world are spotty, there is strong bathymetric and volcanic evidence that Krakatau might have experienced a huge caldera eruption.</p>
<p>Accordingly, I encouraged a scientific expedition to be led by Haraldur Sigurdsson to the area. The expedition found a thick pyroclastic deposit, bracketed by appropriate radiometric dates, that suggests such a caldera collapse of a &#8220;Proto-Krakatau&#8221; did occur perhaps in the 6th century. Bathymetry indicates a caldera some 40 to 60 km in diameter that, with collapse below sea level, could have formed the Sunda Straits, separating Java from Sumatra, as suggested by ancient Javanese historical writings. Such a caldera collapse likely involved eruption of several hundred cubic kilometers of pyroclastic debris, several times larger than the 1815 eruption of Tambora.</p>
<p>This hypothetical eruption likely involved magma-seawater interaction, as past eruptions of Krakatau document, but on a tremendous scale. Computer simulations of the eruption indicate that the interaction could have produced a plume from 25 to &gt;50 km high, carrying from 50 to 100 km3 of vaporized seawater into the atmosphere. Although most of the vapor condenses and falls out from low altitudes, still large quantities are lofted into the stratosphere, forming ice clouds with super fine (<img src='http://s0.wp.com/latex.php?latex=%5Clt+&amp;bg=ffffff&amp;fg=000&amp;s=0' alt='&#92;lt ' title='&#92;lt ' class='latex' />10 mm)</p></blockquote>
<p>It&#8217;s only interesting because the proxy (which must be from subfossil wood) clearly shows something happening which dramatically reduced tree growth in Siberia nearly simultaneously to the hypothesized eruption.</p>
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		<title>By: beng</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2006/11/09/juckes-and-the-indigirka-river-alter-ego/#comment-69731</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[beng]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 09 Nov 2006 18:32:54 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=901#comment-69731</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The Russian studies use sites that are perhaps the best temp proxies dendrology can offer -- cold (not moisture)-limited sites, and whadayaknow, the correlation w/temps are much better than average.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The Russian studies use sites that are perhaps the best temp proxies dendrology can offer &#8212; cold (not moisture)-limited sites, and whadayaknow, the correlation w/temps are much better than average.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>By: Steve McIntyre</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2006/11/09/juckes-and-the-indigirka-river-alter-ego/#comment-69730</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Steve McIntyre]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 09 Nov 2006 17:02:45 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=901#comment-69730</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Note that Juckes&#039; de-selection of Indigirka/Yakutia is discussed at Juckes Omnibus.  He said that it was because it wasn&#039;t &quot;published data&quot;. When asked to define what he meant by &quot;published data&quot; in this context - even after Moberg said that he only meant &quot;unarchived data&quot;, Juckes&#039;  response was merely juvenile debating:

&lt;blockquote&gt;OK, its not just any data in your posession, but any time series that is available electronically? Even by your standards, McIntyre, this is ridiculous. &lt;/blockquote&gt;

I&#039;ve not advocated that &quot;any times series that is available electronically&quot; should be used in a reconstruction. Yakutia/Indigirka was used in Moberg et al 2005 and de-selected by Juckes in his Moberg CVM composite and in his Union reconstruction.  Juckes did not report the de-selection. I&#039;d like to know the reason. He said that it wasn&#039;t the data wasn&#039;t &quot;published&quot;. For purposes of analysing Juckes, I take no position on what should be used or not used - I&#039;m merely trying to understand what criteria he used.  He has refused to say.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Note that Juckes&#8217; de-selection of Indigirka/Yakutia is discussed at Juckes Omnibus.  He said that it was because it wasn&#8217;t &#8220;published data&#8221;. When asked to define what he meant by &#8220;published data&#8221; in this context &#8211; even after Moberg said that he only meant &#8220;unarchived data&#8221;, Juckes&#8217;  response was merely juvenile debating:</p>
<blockquote><p>OK, its not just any data in your posession, but any time series that is available electronically? Even by your standards, McIntyre, this is ridiculous. </p></blockquote>
<p>I&#8217;ve not advocated that &quot;any times series that is available electronically&quot; should be used in a reconstruction. Yakutia/Indigirka was used in Moberg et al 2005 and de-selected by Juckes in his Moberg CVM composite and in his Union reconstruction.  Juckes did not report the de-selection. I&#8217;d like to know the reason. He said that it wasn&#8217;t the data wasn&#8217;t &#8220;published&#8221;. For purposes of analysing Juckes, I take no position on what should be used or not used &#8211; I&#8217;m merely trying to understand what criteria he used.  He has refused to say.</p>
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		<title>By: bender</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2006/11/09/juckes-and-the-indigirka-river-alter-ego/#comment-69729</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[bender]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 09 Nov 2006 16:35:49 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=901#comment-69729</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Squeeze play on Juckes. Yer out.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Squeeze play on Juckes. Yer out.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>By: Barclay E MacDonald</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2006/11/09/juckes-and-the-indigirka-river-alter-ego/#comment-69728</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Barclay E MacDonald]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 09 Nov 2006 16:24:44 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=901#comment-69728</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Nice job! Very persuasive. I keep wondering why you have to repeatedly point out the manifest incompetence and the Gang of 42 just remains with their collective heads in the sand. They should have cleared all this up a long time ago.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Nice job! Very persuasive. I keep wondering why you have to repeatedly point out the manifest incompetence and the Gang of 42 just remains with their collective heads in the sand. They should have cleared all this up a long time ago.</p>
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