Comments on: Ayles Ice Shelf, Ellesmere Island

By: Ward Hunt Island: Unprecedented since 2005 « Climate Audit

Ward Hunt Island: Unprecedented since 2005 « Climate Audit — Fri, 05 Aug 2011 13:15:51 +0000

[...] Island Ice Shelves Ellesmere Island Driftwood Ayles Ice Shelf Ward Hunt Ice Shelf Stratigraphy Ice Island [...]

By: Jalisa Cooper

Jalisa Cooper — Tue, 02 Feb 2010 01:36:45 +0000

I usually don’t normally post on many Blogs, still I just has to say thank you… keep up the amazing work. Ok regrettably its time to get to school.

By: Steve Sadlov

Steve Sadlov — Thu, 21 Jun 2007 22:33:17 +0000

Happy Summer Solstice everyone! The sun angle has peaked in the NH. Of course, realized warmth lags this by a bit, someplaces quite a bit, others not as much. The realized melt back of sea ice tends to lag it by 60 – 85 days. All eyes are on the Arctic, to observe what happens this year. The first year in a long time where we appear to be in a negative PDO. Also, a seemingly cooling Atlantic at the same time. When was the last time we had a cooling Atlantic and negative PDO at the same time?

By: Roger Dueck

Roger Dueck — Tue, 23 Jan 2007 00:38:52 +0000

Re: #24 Cecilia Bitz from U Wash says
“Because the system is chaotic, the natural variability in each run is random and uncorrelated from one run to the next. When an ensemble of runs is averaged, the natural variability is reduced in the ensemble mean, and it is easier to detect a significant trend.”
As an earth scientist with experience in conducting computer simulations of complex natural systems ie oil and gas reservoirs with complex geological and geochemical variables, I am amazed at the reliance of climate change models on repetetive error cancellation as an accepted means of data verification. That applies to Mann’s use of self-proving statistics in deriving “acceptable” data for the “Hockey Stick” as well. In my business we would call that fudging the data.
My observation is that Cecilia will not likely generate a meaningful model without determining which of the variables is responsible for which change, a formidible task, indeed! It’s a computer model and she appears to be assuming that the multiple runs of a simple system will emulate an indescribably complex one. We’ll run it ’til it’s right!
To quote Steve “Repeating wrong numbers does not make them right”

By: Jeff Weffer

Jeff Weffer — Thu, 18 Jan 2007 01:41:48 +0000

I posted this before, but here is the sea ice in the Beaufort Sea on July 25th in 2005 and 2006.

Real actual pictures from the visible spectrum gives you a better idea of what is really happening compared to the IR or radar satellite images which are subject to the bias of the climate change researcher producing the data and the software program used to generate the images.

I certainly wouldn’t trust Michael Mann’s chart of sea ice decline for example.

http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/NaturalHazards/shownh.php3?img_id=13738

By: Steve Sadlov

Steve Sadlov — Thu, 18 Jan 2007 01:22:09 +0000

RE: #25 – Assuming that the decline in sea ice at late summer extent minima that seems to have been measured since the late 1970s is partially or wholly due to AGW (as yet unproven and technically indistinguishable from other possibilities such as multidecadal cycles) I would be open to a scenario whereby the extent at the minimum is reduced enough to allow NW Passage navigation most years. But I think the linear extrapolations of 25 or 30 years of data down to zero are incredibly naive and fail to recognize the fact that the more you try to increase the summer melt, the more you start to run up against very old and difficult-to-melt ice, not to mention the innate limitations imposed by the characteristics of the Arctic Ocean, sun angles and continental configurations. At worst, again, assuming AGW driven decline is the main mechanism, a decaying exponential is far more likely. Once the minimum extent reaches a certain value it is likely to not get much lower than that. Many assumptions in what I’ve laid out. It will be quite interesting to see what happens with sea ice extent at summer minima once we have solidly flipped back into a negative PDO phase. Only the last bits of the previous negative phase were covered by satellite data and that was mostly visual band as acceptable remote sensing technology really did not start until the early 1970s.

By: Jeff Weffer

Jeff Weffer — Thu, 18 Jan 2007 00:55:50 +0000

Nova (PBS) had an excellent documentary on the Franklin expedition of 1845 to get through the NorthWest Passage.

Of course there is no way through the passage unless you time it perfectly and hit the straights on August 7th and get into the Pacific by early September. Assuming of course that a northerly wind doesn’t push sea ice into the straights and stop you in your tracks for three years like happened to Franklin, his 2 ships and 129 crew.

Eventually, the polar ice caps are melting myth will go away. But the global warmers have already won the day and the myth will be with us until an OBJECTIVE scientist proves that nothing out of the ordinary is ocurring.

If you want to know what is really happening, ask the oil companies if they are building any oil tankers that are capable of taking the oil out of the Beaufort Sea. There is lots of oil there and the pipelines are already full. One of them built three in the early 1980s and abruptly went bankrupt when they found out the extremely expensive ice-breaking oil tankers had no hope of getting out even 1 barrel of oil.

Ask shipping companies if they are planning on moving any product through the NorthWest passage because the sea ice is melting.

In other words, ask the money people who put their money where their mouth is what is going on (ie. the people who really do their research.) They just laugh at the sea ice predictions.

They do not laugh at the global warming predictions however. Because they already know that some politician (who has fallen for these myths) is going to make them reduce emissions, go green. The money people know they have already lost the day and they are getting as ready as they can for the day when a politician watching the polls (based on the public falling for these myths) slaps the big regulation on their industry.

By: Steve Sadlov

Steve Sadlov — Wed, 17 Jan 2007 22:01:50 +0000

This is the RC thread, guest commentary by Cecilia Bitz from U Wash:

http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2007/01/arctic-sea-ice-decline-in-the-21st-century/

Have at it folks, especially the extrapolations ….

By: Steve Sadlov

Steve Sadlov — Wed, 17 Jan 2007 19:37:42 +0000

FYI – there’s a sea ice (meltdown) related thread over at RC just now …

Here’s a post of mine, awaiting the censor’s approval:

“Given the PDO, I have some issues with using 1980 – ~ present as the basis for trend line analysis. Truth is we are still unraveling the PDO (and other cyclical down leg) based decline(s) from 1976 (last PDO flip to positive phase) on, from the overall AGW(ish) decline. Once someone is able to successfully deconvolute the AGW(ish) decline from the cyclicals, then we’ll be talking.
by Steve Sadlov”

By: JP

JP — Sun, 14 Jan 2007 15:14:30 +0000

RE:20 It was released as supporting evidence to the plight of the “stressed” polar bears.