Comments on: More Evidence That Hurricanes Are The Result Of A Poisson Process

By: matt vooro

matt vooro — Wed, 26 Sep 2007 16:28:06 +0000

I just wanted to clarify that my previous post gave only the peak solar wind velocity just before or during the named storm. This was to prove that higher solar wind velocities seem to be present during or just before named storms. In actual fact, if you look at the solar wind plots, the wind velocity fluctuates constantly. Also since the geomagnetic field is a vector field, other components beside the velocity are necessary to describe it totally ,namely, the declination and inclination angles and intensity of the field.
A solar wind that has steady south orientation, a good theta angle, with high vertical or Vz velocity component and high density all combined may have the greater impact on our planets magnetic field and atmosphere. Analyzing all these various components was beyond the scope my current post. The attached is a good source of current data on solar wind.
http://umtof.umd.edu/pm/crn/

By: matt vooro

matt vooro — Tue, 25 Sep 2007 21:34:22 +0000

2005 NAMED STORMS IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN
SOLAR WIND VELOCITY IN KM/S IS SHOWN AFTER THE STORM NAME. THOSE WITH HIGHER SOLAR WIND DENSITY BUT LOWER VELOCITIES ARE SHOWN BY* WITH THE DENSITY SHOWN DIRECTLY BEHIND IN PROTONS PER CM3

T.S ARLENE 498*/46.4
T.S BRET 416 */25.1
HURRICANE CINDY 553
HURRICANE DENNIS 536
HURRICANE EMILY 625
T.S. FRANKLIN 629
T.S. GERT 605
T.S HARVEY 744
HURRICANE IRENE 749
T.S. JOSE 764
HURRICANE KATRINA 749
T.S.LEE 480*/41
HURRICANE MARIA 834
HURRICANE NATE 834
HURRICANE OPHELIA 1004
HURRICANE PHILIPPE 564
HURRICANE RITA 564
HURRICANE STAN 513
S.T.S. UNNAMED 300
T.S. TAMMY 300
HURRICANE VINCE 699
HURRICANE WILMA 398*/61.5
T.S. ALPHA 372*/33.2
HURRICANE BETA 509
T.S GAMMA 416*/34
T.S.DELTA 476
HURRICANE EPSILON 733
T.S. ZETA 756

TOTAL OF 19 STORMS HAD SOLAR WIND VELOCITIES OF 500 TO 700KM/S OR MORE.
TOTAL STORMS WITH HIGH SOLAR WIND VELOCITY PLUS THOSE WITH HIGHER SOLAR WIND DENSITY = 19+6=25 OR 89%

I ALSO LOOKED AT 2006 AND 2007 IN THE ATLANTIC:

2006 8 STORMS OUT OF 10 HAD HIGHER SOLAR WIND VELOCITIES[80%]
2007 10 STORMS OUT OF 11 TODATE HAD HIGHER SOLAR WIND VELOCITIES[90%]

I ALSO LOOKED AT OTHER REGIONS DURING 2005:

EASTERN PACIFIC 10 STORMS OUT OF 16 HAD HIGHER SOLAR WIND VELOCITIES
NW PACIFIC 18 STORMS OUT OF 24 HAD HIGHER SOLAR WIND VELOCITIES
AUSTRALIA 8 STORMS OUT OF 8 HAD HIGHER SOLAR WIND VELOCITIES

By: matt vooro

matt vooro — Tue, 25 Sep 2007 14:51:56 +0000

markw
I agree with you about whether some of these recent storms in 2006 should be called named storms at all.

By the way Mark I have never said that solar winds only affect storms in the Atlantic . You are misquoting me. See post 110. I said I had only had time to look at the Atlantic Basin to date. I will be commenting on other areas in the future . I beleive that solar winds can affect storms in all regions as my earlier post clearly shows for the past week.

By: MarkW

MarkW — Tue, 25 Sep 2007 14:15:28 +0000

There has always been “a flurry” of storms. It’s just that these storms are so weak, that in previous years, they would have gotten no attention whatsoever. This year, with the need to prove that AGW affects storms, they get media play.

As to your insistence that solar winds only affect storms that form in the Atlantic Basin, I would love to see the explanation behind it.

By: matt vooro

matt vooro — Tue, 25 Sep 2007 13:39:52 +0000

For those bloggers who have been blogging the current hurricane season, you will have noticed that the solar wind has again peaked running about 500-700 km/sec since September 21. As predictable, there was a flurry of storms .Full moon is also tomorrow .The probability of more high speed solar wind from a new spot on the sun in the coming days up to September 28 is also high. These are all the ingredients for some new storm activity.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVO in the Eastern Pacific
TROPICAL STORM JERRY in the Atlantic [10TH]
TROPICAL STORM KAREN in the Atlantic [11th]
TROPICAL STORM FRANCISCO in the NW Pacific

I will shortly post some raw data on the storms in 2005 in the Atlantic Basin and the associated solar wind speeds

By: MarkW

MarkW — Fri, 21 Sep 2007 13:17:41 +0000

Don’t forget the southern hemisphere, they get hurricanes as well.

By: matt vooro

matt vooro — Fri, 21 Sep 2007 13:00:25 +0000

gunnar

I think i understand what you are looking for. I will submit more raw data for each storm but it will be limited because I have to extract the data from about 38 plots and timetables for each storm. I cannot reproduce all the plots on this web page but I will tell you where they can be found. I will give you the peak solar wind velocities present around each storm only . I don’t know if the word hyothesis reall applies in this case because of the limited data presented . Perhaps the word SUPPOSITION or CONJECTURE is more appropriate in this case. Anyway I think I already provided that with track # 106, second paragraph

By: matt vooro

matt vooro — Fri, 21 Sep 2007 12:39:11 +0000

MARKW
Good point .
There is no reason other than I have not had the time. There is lot of data to go through. I am more familiar with the Atlantic. I hope to tackle the Pacific later.

don’tknow if you noticed on the news that the sun has been blank of sun spots for 14 days and the solar minimum may be extended to March 2008. This increase the length of soalr cycle #23 to 12 years from the more recent 11. Sign of colder temperaures to come and possibly low storm season next year as well

By: MarkW

MarkW — Thu, 20 Sep 2007 22:51:52 +0000

matt,

What happens when you include the rest of the world?
Why this insistance on only looking at N.Atlantic storms?

Doesn’t the sun shine on the rest of the world?

By: matt vooro

matt vooro — Thu, 20 Sep 2007 20:35:03 +0000

Gunnar

Can you expand more or give example of what you were looking for and as already shown on this web page .[ track #?]