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	<title>Comments on: Salzer and Hughes on Bristlecones</title>
	<atom:link href="http://climateaudit.org/2007/01/21/salzer-and-hughes-on-bristlecones/feed/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>http://climateaudit.org/2007/01/21/salzer-and-hughes-on-bristlecones/</link>
	<description>by Steve McIntyre</description>
	<lastBuildDate>Wed, 22 May 2013 03:13:53 +0000</lastBuildDate>
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	<item>
		<title>By: bender</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2007/01/21/salzer-and-hughes-on-bristlecones/#comment-76806</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[bender]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 03 Nov 2007 16:31:55 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=1094#comment-76806</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[From the above:

&lt;blockquote&gt;It has long been &lt;strong&gt;suspected &lt;/strong&gt;that upper-treeline ring widths are recording variability in temperature or a temperature-related variable such as growing season length (LaMarche, 1974; LaMarche and Stockton, 1974). This has been &lt;strong&gt;difficult &lt;/strong&gt;to demonstrate with modern meteorological data, however, possibly due to a &lt;em&gt;&lt;strong&gt;reduction of ring-width sensitivity to temperature&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/em&gt;.&lt;/blockquote&gt;

[Emphases mine.]

Decoding the italicized phrase ... this is more evidence that these guys understand that tree ring reponses are &lt;strong&gt;nonlinear&lt;/strong&gt; and &lt;strong&gt;synergistic&lt;/strong&gt;, and therefore &lt;strong&gt;unreconstructable&lt;/strong&gt; through linear, univariate correlative/regressive models.

... An inference that might not obvious from a superficial reading.

NB: They should have provided a citation for the second statement. McIntyre&#039;s work at CA being the most obvious choice.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>From the above:</p>
<blockquote><p>It has long been <strong>suspected </strong>that upper-treeline ring widths are recording variability in temperature or a temperature-related variable such as growing season length (LaMarche, 1974; LaMarche and Stockton, 1974). This has been <strong>difficult </strong>to demonstrate with modern meteorological data, however, possibly due to a <em><strong>reduction of ring-width sensitivity to temperature</strong></em>.</p></blockquote>
<p>[Emphases mine.]</p>
<p>Decoding the italicized phrase &#8230; this is more evidence that these guys understand that tree ring reponses are <strong>nonlinear</strong> and <strong>synergistic</strong>, and therefore <strong>unreconstructable</strong> through linear, univariate correlative/regressive models.</p>
<p>&#8230; An inference that might not obvious from a superficial reading.</p>
<p>NB: They should have provided a citation for the second statement. McIntyre&#8217;s work at CA being the most obvious choice.</p>
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		<title>By: henry</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2007/01/21/salzer-and-hughes-on-bristlecones/#comment-76805</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[henry]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 31 Oct 2007 18:39:03 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=1094#comment-76805</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Eli Rabbet is just now getting around to this, so in his honor, I RTFR.

&quot;While ring width in bristlecone pine at the upper limit of its distribution may be strongly influenced by temperature or &lt;strong&gt;a temperature-related condition such as growing season length, in this semi-arid region drought may also influence growth, even at high elevation.&lt;/strong&gt; The HI5 chronology was subjected to two separate Superposed Epoch Analyses (SEA) in an attempt to separate these two influences...

The SEA analysis period was AD 15951898; &lt;strong&gt;20th century data were eliminated so as to avoid potential biases associated with industrial-era atmospheric contamination &lt;/strong&gt;(LaMarche et al., 1984, Graybill and Idso, 1993 and Hughes and Funkhouser, 2003).&quot;

also:

&quot;Time-series plot of regional high elevation tree-ring index from 3000 BC to AD &lt;strong&gt;2002&lt;/strong&gt; (HI5 chronology-variance-adjusted normalized mean of &lt;strong&gt;five subalpine bristlecone pine chronologies&lt;/strong&gt;).

Bristlecones again.  Once again, does this tie back to the original MBH study?

&quot;Mann et al., 1998 M.E. Mann, R.S. Bradley and M.K. Hughes, Global-scale temperature patterns and climate forcing over the past six centuries, Nature 392 (1998), pp. 779787.&quot;

Guess so.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Eli Rabbet is just now getting around to this, so in his honor, I RTFR.</p>
<p>&#8220;While ring width in bristlecone pine at the upper limit of its distribution may be strongly influenced by temperature or <strong>a temperature-related condition such as growing season length, in this semi-arid region drought may also influence growth, even at high elevation.</strong> The HI5 chronology was subjected to two separate Superposed Epoch Analyses (SEA) in an attempt to separate these two influences&#8230;</p>
<p>The SEA analysis period was AD 15951898; <strong>20th century data were eliminated so as to avoid potential biases associated with industrial-era atmospheric contamination </strong>(LaMarche et al., 1984, Graybill and Idso, 1993 and Hughes and Funkhouser, 2003).&#8221;</p>
<p>also:</p>
<p>&#8220;Time-series plot of regional high elevation tree-ring index from 3000 BC to AD <strong>2002</strong> (HI5 chronology-variance-adjusted normalized mean of <strong>five subalpine bristlecone pine chronologies</strong>).</p>
<p>Bristlecones again.  Once again, does this tie back to the original MBH study?</p>
<p>&#8220;Mann et al., 1998 M.E. Mann, R.S. Bradley and M.K. Hughes, Global-scale temperature patterns and climate forcing over the past six centuries, Nature 392 (1998), pp. 779787.&#8221;</p>
<p>Guess so.</p>
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		<title>By: Steve McIntyre</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2007/01/21/salzer-and-hughes-on-bristlecones/#comment-76804</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Steve McIntyre]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 22 Jan 2007 19:59:18 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=1094#comment-76804</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[#4. This adjustment is done at the level of individual trees to remove early growth trend.  Resulting chronologies do not necessarily have a HS-shape. I agree that there is risk in this standardization process no matter how hard they try and the bias is to HS-ness. But I don&#039;t think that that&#039;s the issue with bristlecones - their ring widths increase in the 20th century no matter how you do it. Whether the increase is due to temperature is a different question.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>#4. This adjustment is done at the level of individual trees to remove early growth trend.  Resulting chronologies do not necessarily have a HS-shape. I agree that there is risk in this standardization process no matter how hard they try and the bias is to HS-ness. But I don&#8217;t think that that&#8217;s the issue with bristlecones &#8211; their ring widths increase in the 20th century no matter how you do it. Whether the increase is due to temperature is a different question.</p>
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		<title>By: pat</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2007/01/21/salzer-and-hughes-on-bristlecones/#comment-76803</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[pat]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 22 Jan 2007 17:56:27 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=1094#comment-76803</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Despite the obfuscation the issue here seems tivial. If I have a time series that varies randomly and I divide the data values by a constant at every point (ie. a straight line) I will get a unbiased transform. That is to say if this is part of a smoothing procedure I will not have introduced anything into the analysis.

However here the author states:

&lt;blockquote&gt;a modified negative exponential curve, a straight line of negative slope, or a horizontal line were used in the standardization. &lt;/blockquote&gt;

Such a procedure must give the resulting smoothed series a rising character. This seems to be the exact same kind of procedure used in MBH98 with PCA. There, as I remember, the authors used a different mean value for recent measurements resulting in a &quot;hockey stick&quot; shape for the smoothed graph. Here the author creates a slope in the results by deviding the original measurements by a slope.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Despite the obfuscation the issue here seems tivial. If I have a time series that varies randomly and I divide the data values by a constant at every point (ie. a straight line) I will get a unbiased transform. That is to say if this is part of a smoothing procedure I will not have introduced anything into the analysis.</p>
<p>However here the author states:</p>
<blockquote><p>a modified negative exponential curve, a straight line of negative slope, or a horizontal line were used in the standardization. </p></blockquote>
<p>Such a procedure must give the resulting smoothed series a rising character. This seems to be the exact same kind of procedure used in MBH98 with PCA. There, as I remember, the authors used a different mean value for recent measurements resulting in a &#8220;hockey stick&#8221; shape for the smoothed graph. Here the author creates a slope in the results by deviding the original measurements by a slope.</p>
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		<title>By: Douglas J. Keenan</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2007/01/21/salzer-and-hughes-on-bristlecones/#comment-76802</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Douglas J. Keenan]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 22 Jan 2007 15:57:26 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=1094#comment-76802</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The accuracy of the ice-core dates prior to ~0&#160;BC is highly disputable.  A good reference for this is J.&#160;Southon [&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.radiocarbon.org/&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;&lt;em&gt;Radiocarbon&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/a&gt; 46: 1239&#8211;1259 (2004)].

I&#039;ve done some analysis that supports and extends Southon&#039;s work.  I hope to publish it, but getting all the data is problematic.

In my view, the ice-core guys are heroes of science for gathering their data&#8212;spending years out on the Greenland ice cap.  And their data is extremely valuable.

But I strongly dispute their ability to analyze data.  Salzer&#160;&amp; Hughes cite the work of ice core researchers Hammer et&#160;al.&amp;nbsp[2003] on some volcanic ash; they also cite a paper of mine that criticizes Hammer et&#160;al.  In fact, the main thing that my paper does is point out that Hammer et&#160;al. do not understand the concept of &lt;em&gt;standard deviation&lt;/em&gt;.  Worse, I had discussions about that with the authors prior to the publication of their paper, and I only published mine when they refused to reconsider.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The accuracy of the ice-core dates prior to ~0&nbsp;BC is highly disputable.  A good reference for this is J.&nbsp;Southon [<a href="http://www.radiocarbon.org/" rel="nofollow"><em>Radiocarbon</em></a> 46: 1239&ndash;1259 (2004)].</p>
<p>I&#8217;ve done some analysis that supports and extends Southon&#8217;s work.  I hope to publish it, but getting all the data is problematic.</p>
<p>In my view, the ice-core guys are heroes of science for gathering their data&mdash;spending years out on the Greenland ice cap.  And their data is extremely valuable.</p>
<p>But I strongly dispute their ability to analyze data.  Salzer&nbsp;&amp; Hughes cite the work of ice core researchers Hammer et&nbsp;al.&amp;nbsp[2003] on some volcanic ash; they also cite a paper of mine that criticizes Hammer et&nbsp;al.  In fact, the main thing that my paper does is point out that Hammer et&nbsp;al. do not understand the concept of <em>standard deviation</em>.  Worse, I had discussions about that with the authors prior to the publication of their paper, and I only published mine when they refused to reconsider.</p>
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		<title>By: Steve McIntyre</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2007/01/21/salzer-and-hughes-on-bristlecones/#comment-76801</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Steve McIntyre]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 22 Jan 2007 04:12:43 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=1094#comment-76801</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[This article doesn&#039;t discuss the 20th century growth pulse at all.  It does not include updated Sheep Mountain information although it uses Sheep Mountain. Sheep Mountain was updated in 2002; a notice that an updated chronology was reported in April 2004 &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.ltrr.arizona.edu/~mhughes/April04conf/abstracts/Salzer.htm&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;here &lt;/a&gt;. Yet the 2007 publication continues to use obsolete data.  Can you imagine a business updating its financial records and then reporting only its results up to 2001.

I made the prediction long ago that the Sheep Mountain update will not show elevated growth through the warm 1990s and early 2000s. The present article does not settle the prediction - other than the matter is avoided by Hughes one more time.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>This article doesn&#8217;t discuss the 20th century growth pulse at all.  It does not include updated Sheep Mountain information although it uses Sheep Mountain. Sheep Mountain was updated in 2002; a notice that an updated chronology was reported in April 2004 <a href="http://www.ltrr.arizona.edu/~mhughes/April04conf/abstracts/Salzer.htm" rel="nofollow">here </a>. Yet the 2007 publication continues to use obsolete data.  Can you imagine a business updating its financial records and then reporting only its results up to 2001.</p>
<p>I made the prediction long ago that the Sheep Mountain update will not show elevated growth through the warm 1990s and early 2000s. The present article does not settle the prediction &#8211; other than the matter is avoided by Hughes one more time.</p>
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		<title>By: John A</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2007/01/21/salzer-and-hughes-on-bristlecones/#comment-76800</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[John A]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 21 Jan 2007 22:55:30 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=1094#comment-76800</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Here&#039;s the Figure 2 mentioned above.

]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Here&#8217;s the Figure 2 mentioned above.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
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