Andrew Weaver in an article here says of the SPM: “This isn’t a smoking gun; climate is a batallion of intergalactic smoking missiles.” Wow. Even better than Space Invaders. There was a big front page preview of the SPM in the Toronto Globe and Mail today here all of which is worth reading, but for now I draw your attention to the 2nd paragraph of the article:
Humans have already caused so much damage to the atmosphere that the effects of global warming will last for more than 1,000 years, according to a summary of a climate-change report being prepared by the world’s leading scientists.
The draft, seen by The Globe and Mail yesterday, also says evidence the world is heating up is now so strong it is “unequivocal” and predicts more frequent heat waves, droughts and rain storms, as well as more violent typhoons and hurricanes. It concludes the higher temperatures observed during the past 50 years are so dramatically different from anything in the climate record that the last half-century period was likely the hottest in at least the past 1,300 years.
I wasn’t sure that the Hockey Team would even make the SPM this time, but here there are in the 2nd paragraph. The Team stayed in the spotlight.
Not just in the spotlight – but maybe they’re what Weaver meant by a “battallion of intergalactic missiles”? “Look, up in the sky, It’s a bird, It’s a plane, It’s the Team.” Who would have guessed? Do they get spandex suits? It puts Mann’s instruction to Rutherford – “Beam me up, Scottie” – in an entirely new light.
In case you are wondering how they knew that this was the hottest in 1300 years, the “battallion of intergalactic missiles” is a new spaghetti graph (although I doubt that the spaghetti graph will itself will make the cut this time), more or less as emulated below (although this lacks the instrumental splice). Readers of this blog will be familiar with all of these reconstructions, though not necessarily the nomenclature. See caption.
Figure 1. Spaghetti graph of reconstructions (without temperature splice and short glacier and borehole series). JBB98 – Jones et al 1998; MBH99 – duh; BOS01 – Briffa et al 2001; CED04 – Cook’s rescaling of Esper et al 2002; B2000 – Briffa 2000; MJ2003 – Mann and Jones 2003; RMO05 – Beam me up, Scotty 2005; MSH – Moberg et al 2005; DWJ06; D’Arrigo et al 2006; HCA06 – Hegerl etl 2006
In addition to a spaghetti graph, the WG1 repot itself includes an interesting “Fiery Hockey Stick” diagram. For each of the reconstructions, they calculated 2-sigma “confidence intervals” – ignoring the NAS Panel view that confidence intervals could not be assigned in the early portion – from which they made a type of density graphic using fire colors (their Figure 6.10c). Graphically, it’s done in an interesting way. The calculations appear to have been done using calibration period residuals – again contrary to NAS panel recommendations.
Readers of this blog are obviously familiar with problems with hockey stick manufacture and I won’t re-visit them in this note. My most recent visit to this topic was in my Dec 2006 presentation at AGU, where I observed that the NAS Panel had stated that bristlecones should be “avoided” in temperature reconstructions; that many of the “independent” reconstructions used bristlecones, including the studies used in the NAS panel illustration and without bristlecones, the medieval-modern relationship was reversed.