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	<title>Comments on: Regression and Varimax Rotation</title>
	<atom:link href="http://climateaudit.org/2007/04/03/regression-and-varimax-rotation/feed/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>http://climateaudit.org/2007/04/03/regression-and-varimax-rotation/</link>
	<description>by Steve McIntyre</description>
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		<title>By: Tom F</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2007/04/03/regression-and-varimax-rotation/#comment-84055</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Tom F]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 03 Mar 2008 19:14:59 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=1324#comment-84055</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Steve,

I think I see a mistake in your algebra.  dim(X) = (n,m).  The idea of truncation is that only a few of the eigenvalues and corresponding eigenvectors are preserved.  In the matrix algebra, this means that the inner sums are truncated, but not the outer dimensions.  Therefore dim(Vhattranspose) = (k,m) or dim(Vhat) = (m,k), not (k,k).

The next point I am not 100% sure about, but here goes.  I think the rotation matrix R has dim( R ) = (m,m).  Remember that the eigenvectors get rotated in such a way that they stay orthogonal.  That means that two eigenvectors, multipled and summed across all values of m, are zero for 2 different values of k, the eigenvalue and eigenvector index.  The only way this can hold is if dim( R ) = (m,m).

The reason I am not 100% sure is because I have not yet found a paper where these things are written down mathematically.  I agree with some of the previous comments, that a mathematically detailed description has the best chance of being unambiguous.  Like it or not, the computer IS doing math.  If we don&#039;t understand these things mathematically, then we don&#039;t understand what the computer is doing.  I applaud you for trying to bring math to the discussion.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Steve,</p>
<p>I think I see a mistake in your algebra.  dim(X) = (n,m).  The idea of truncation is that only a few of the eigenvalues and corresponding eigenvectors are preserved.  In the matrix algebra, this means that the inner sums are truncated, but not the outer dimensions.  Therefore dim(Vhattranspose) = (k,m) or dim(Vhat) = (m,k), not (k,k).</p>
<p>The next point I am not 100% sure about, but here goes.  I think the rotation matrix R has dim( R ) = (m,m).  Remember that the eigenvectors get rotated in such a way that they stay orthogonal.  That means that two eigenvectors, multipled and summed across all values of m, are zero for 2 different values of k, the eigenvalue and eigenvector index.  The only way this can hold is if dim( R ) = (m,m).</p>
<p>The reason I am not 100% sure is because I have not yet found a paper where these things are written down mathematically.  I agree with some of the previous comments, that a mathematically detailed description has the best chance of being unambiguous.  Like it or not, the computer IS doing math.  If we don&#8217;t understand these things mathematically, then we don&#8217;t understand what the computer is doing.  I applaud you for trying to bring math to the discussion.</p>
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		<title>By: Phil B.</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2007/04/03/regression-and-varimax-rotation/#comment-84054</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Phil B.]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 09 Apr 2007 22:02:03 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=1324#comment-84054</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Steve, your derivation suggests that you assumed that two sets of PC&#039;s were calculated. One set which spanned the calibration period 1899-1985 were the beta vector was calculated.  The beta vector is then used on the PC&#039;s that span the total length of the proxy set to calculate the temperature reconstruction?  Now Rob didn&#039;t correct you, nor could I tell after reading Wilson et. al 2007.

Are the authors not allowed to put equations in these papers?   I find verbal descriptions of algorithms not very helpful. Just complaining.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Steve, your derivation suggests that you assumed that two sets of PC&#8217;s were calculated. One set which spanned the calibration period 1899-1985 were the beta vector was calculated.  The beta vector is then used on the PC&#8217;s that span the total length of the proxy set to calculate the temperature reconstruction?  Now Rob didn&#8217;t correct you, nor could I tell after reading Wilson et. al 2007.</p>
<p>Are the authors not allowed to put equations in these papers?   I find verbal descriptions of algorithms not very helpful. Just complaining.</p>
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		<title>By: UC</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2007/04/03/regression-and-varimax-rotation/#comment-84053</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[UC]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 07 Apr 2007 14:35:12 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=1324#comment-84053</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Thanks Steve, easier to follow now. Yet, I&#039;m not sure what PCA actually does (and why it is used)  in climate reconstructions. ..plain and simple guy.. Illustrative examples like this

http://www.uwlax.edu/faculty/will/svd/compression/index.html

would help a lot. And those relevant papers should be made freely available for everyone. Something IPCC should do instead of having press conferences on monthly basis..]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Thanks Steve, easier to follow now. Yet, I&#8217;m not sure what PCA actually does (and why it is used)  in climate reconstructions. ..plain and simple guy.. Illustrative examples like this</p>
<p><a href="http://www.uwlax.edu/faculty/will/svd/compression/index.html" rel="nofollow">http://www.uwlax.edu/faculty/will/svd/compression/index.html</a></p>
<p>would help a lot. And those relevant papers should be made freely available for everyone. Something IPCC should do instead of having press conferences on monthly basis..</p>
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		<title>By: Steve McIntyre</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2007/04/03/regression-and-varimax-rotation/#comment-84052</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Steve McIntyre]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 05 Apr 2007 22:19:10 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=1324#comment-84052</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[#32. It&#039;s not that it&#039;s &quot;news&quot;. I&#039;m just collecting and reporting information on the habits and customs of this little sub-culture of dendroclimatologists,  their technologies, their war cries, their statistical methods, how they do things. It&#039;s like being an anthropologist. Of course, the people in the sub-culture think that they are superior to outsiders, but anthropologists are used to this sort of behavior even in primitive tribes.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>#32. It&#8217;s not that it&#8217;s &#8220;news&#8221;. I&#8217;m just collecting and reporting information on the habits and customs of this little sub-culture of dendroclimatologists,  their technologies, their war cries, their statistical methods, how they do things. It&#8217;s like being an anthropologist. Of course, the people in the sub-culture think that they are superior to outsiders, but anthropologists are used to this sort of behavior even in primitive tribes.</p>
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		<title>By: Kevin</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2007/04/03/regression-and-varimax-rotation/#comment-84051</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Kevin]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 05 Apr 2007 21:42:04 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=1324#comment-84051</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I&#039;ve just spotted this thread and do not have the time to comment in depth or respond to other posts.  I&#039;m a bit surprised that rotation, of which varimax is just one kind, is news.  I believe William Kaiser developed it around 1955 when he was doing his dissertation.  In cross sectional data settings, rotation is nearly always performed in both PCA and FA.  This is because the PC&#039;c without rotation are often uninterpretable.  With the eigenvalue=1 cutoff the total variance explained in a PC regression will not change but the PC scores before and after rotation will not be the same and interpretion of the regression results will not be the same.  I assume Wilson&#039;s intent was to generate PC scores comprised of closely related proxies for use in the regression.  Nothing novel or controversial about the procedure except that both PCA and OLS regression are inappropriate for time-series data in the first place, as I and others have pointed out numerous times. Got to run.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I&#8217;ve just spotted this thread and do not have the time to comment in depth or respond to other posts.  I&#8217;m a bit surprised that rotation, of which varimax is just one kind, is news.  I believe William Kaiser developed it around 1955 when he was doing his dissertation.  In cross sectional data settings, rotation is nearly always performed in both PCA and FA.  This is because the PC&#8217;c without rotation are often uninterpretable.  With the eigenvalue=1 cutoff the total variance explained in a PC regression will not change but the PC scores before and after rotation will not be the same and interpretion of the regression results will not be the same.  I assume Wilson&#8217;s intent was to generate PC scores comprised of closely related proxies for use in the regression.  Nothing novel or controversial about the procedure except that both PCA and OLS regression are inappropriate for time-series data in the first place, as I and others have pointed out numerous times. Got to run.</p>
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		<title>By: Mark T.</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2007/04/03/regression-and-varimax-rotation/#comment-84050</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Mark T.]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 05 Apr 2007 19:50:08 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=1324#comment-84050</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Gotcha.

I remember taking the detection theory class a few years ago (Van Trees, DEM Vol. 1) and, as I recall, there&#039;s a problem at the end of Chapter 4 that was a back-door introduction to the standard KF.  I had already taken a class that introduced it years earlier, but we worked the problem and Ziemer asked &quot;do you know what you just solved?&quot;  We were clueless.  After he told us, I asked &quot;all this does is find the time varying mean, right?&quot;  Yup... I was just glad to be done with that class anyway as it was tough.

Mark]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Gotcha.</p>
<p>I remember taking the detection theory class a few years ago (Van Trees, DEM Vol. 1) and, as I recall, there&#8217;s a problem at the end of Chapter 4 that was a back-door introduction to the standard KF.  I had already taken a class that introduced it years earlier, but we worked the problem and Ziemer asked &#8220;do you know what you just solved?&#8221;  We were clueless.  After he told us, I asked &#8220;all this does is find the time varying mean, right?&#8221;  Yup&#8230; I was just glad to be done with that class anyway as it was tough.</p>
<p>Mark</p>
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		<title>By: Steve McIntyre</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2007/04/03/regression-and-varimax-rotation/#comment-84049</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Steve McIntyre]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 05 Apr 2007 19:40:45 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=1324#comment-84049</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[#24. Jean S, thanks for looking at this. I thought that my (8) was just the substitution into (4).  Here&#039;s another interesting perspective on this.  If you express the OLS &quot;rotation matrix&quot; $latex  (X^T X)^{-1}  $ in svd decomposition of (1), one trivially obtains the expression $latex  VS^{-2} V^T   $ which is structurally quite similar to $latex  \hat{V} \hat{S}^{-2} \hat{V}^T   $

The equation is simply:
$latex  (X^T X)^{-1} = ((USV^T)^T (USV^T )^{-1} = (VSU^T USV^T)^{-1} = VS^{-2} V^T   $

So the more eigenvalues are retained the close the reconstruction approximates an OLS reconstruction - and the more low-frequency variation is lost.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>#24. Jean S, thanks for looking at this. I thought that my (8) was just the substitution into (4).  Here&#8217;s another interesting perspective on this.  If you express the OLS &#8220;rotation matrix&#8221; <img src='http://s0.wp.com/latex.php?latex=%28X%5ET+X%29%5E%7B-1%7D++&amp;bg=ffffff&amp;fg=000&amp;s=0' alt='(X^T X)^{-1}  ' title='(X^T X)^{-1}  ' class='latex' /> in svd decomposition of (1), one trivially obtains the expression <img src='http://s0.wp.com/latex.php?latex=VS%5E%7B-2%7D+V%5ET+++&amp;bg=ffffff&amp;fg=000&amp;s=0' alt='VS^{-2} V^T   ' title='VS^{-2} V^T   ' class='latex' /> which is structurally quite similar to <img src='http://s0.wp.com/latex.php?latex=%5Chat%7BV%7D+%5Chat%7BS%7D%5E%7B-2%7D+%5Chat%7BV%7D%5ET+++&amp;bg=ffffff&amp;fg=000&amp;s=0' alt='&#92;hat{V} &#92;hat{S}^{-2} &#92;hat{V}^T   ' title='&#92;hat{V} &#92;hat{S}^{-2} &#92;hat{V}^T   ' class='latex' /></p>
<p>The equation is simply:<br />
<img src='http://s0.wp.com/latex.php?latex=%28X%5ET+X%29%5E%7B-1%7D+%3D+%28%28USV%5ET%29%5ET+%28USV%5ET+%29%5E%7B-1%7D+%3D+%28VSU%5ET+USV%5ET%29%5E%7B-1%7D+%3D+VS%5E%7B-2%7D+V%5ET+++&amp;bg=ffffff&amp;fg=000&amp;s=0' alt='(X^T X)^{-1} = ((USV^T)^T (USV^T )^{-1} = (VSU^T USV^T)^{-1} = VS^{-2} V^T   ' title='(X^T X)^{-1} = ((USV^T)^T (USV^T )^{-1} = (VSU^T USV^T)^{-1} = VS^{-2} V^T   ' class='latex' /></p>
<p>So the more eigenvalues are retained the close the reconstruction approximates an OLS reconstruction &#8211; and the more low-frequency variation is lost.</p>
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		<title>By: Jean S</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2007/04/03/regression-and-varimax-rotation/#comment-84048</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Jean S]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 05 Apr 2007 19:29:11 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=1324#comment-84048</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[re #28: Sorry, I should have been careful with my wordings when dealing with you ;) Unscented Kalman &lt;em&gt;smoother&lt;/em&gt; would be my first candidate. See, e.g., here:
http://www.cse.ogi.edu/PacSoft/projects/sec/wan01b.ps]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>re #28: Sorry, I should have been careful with my wordings when dealing with you <img src='http://s1.wp.com/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_wink.gif' alt=';)' class='wp-smiley' />  Unscented Kalman <em>smoother</em> would be my first candidate. See, e.g., here:<br />
<a href="http://www.cse.ogi.edu/PacSoft/projects/sec/wan01b.ps" rel="nofollow">http://www.cse.ogi.edu/PacSoft/projects/sec/wan01b.ps</a></p>
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		<title>By: Mark T.</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2007/04/03/regression-and-varimax-rotation/#comment-84047</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Mark T.]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 05 Apr 2007 18:21:41 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=1324#comment-84047</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[&lt;blockquote&gt;Unscented Kalman filter would be my number one candidate if I had to work with that data.&lt;/blockquote&gt;

Which is, btw, an online (adaptively tracking) method of signal extraction. :)

Some form of Kalman filter is what I&#039;m probably going to implement in my current radar problem.  We&#039;re only worried about detection at the moment, however, so I haven&#039;t looked into it.  I spent a little time researching the KF and EKF a few years ago, but never paid much attention to the UKF (more complex than I needed at the time).

Mark]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<blockquote><p>Unscented Kalman filter would be my number one candidate if I had to work with that data.</p></blockquote>
<p>Which is, btw, an online (adaptively tracking) method of signal extraction. <img src='http://s0.wp.com/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif' alt=':)' class='wp-smiley' /> </p>
<p>Some form of Kalman filter is what I&#8217;m probably going to implement in my current radar problem.  We&#8217;re only worried about detection at the moment, however, so I haven&#8217;t looked into it.  I spent a little time researching the KF and EKF a few years ago, but never paid much attention to the UKF (more complex than I needed at the time).</p>
<p>Mark</p>
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		<title>By: Mark T.</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2007/04/03/regression-and-varimax-rotation/#comment-84046</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Mark T.]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 05 Apr 2007 17:40:49 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=1324#comment-84046</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[My stationarity issue is regarding the mixing matrix, primarily (well, the combination of signals from mixing).  One cannot differentiate changing mixing vs. changing signals using any form of standard component analysis.  Heck, even in the comm world we use differential encoding on the bits because there&#039;s no distinction between a +/-1 data bit and a +/-1 channel sign.

Mark]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>My stationarity issue is regarding the mixing matrix, primarily (well, the combination of signals from mixing).  One cannot differentiate changing mixing vs. changing signals using any form of standard component analysis.  Heck, even in the comm world we use differential encoding on the bits because there&#8217;s no distinction between a +/-1 data bit and a +/-1 channel sign.</p>
<p>Mark</p>
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