Comments on: IPCC and the Al Gore Hockey Stick

By: Kendall Svengalis

Kendall Svengalis — Tue, 29 Apr 2008 01:44:07 +0000

Getting back to the science: What are we to make of the fact that much of the world is in a panic over the fact that the temperature of the Earth is now roughly equivalent to its 3000-year average, having risen about .8ºC since the end of the Little Ice Age 150-200 years ago? Reflecting on Robinson and Soon’s representation of Sargasso Sea temperature history, temperatures were colder than they had been for about 1,500 years. It is from this relative trough that we have emerged. Viewed from this historical perspective, our current temperature history is relatively unremarkable, which is why Mann and Gore had to distort it to make their case, and add the GCMs at the end of the historic record to accentuate it. And, overwhelmingly, neither the general public nor the media can recite either the current average temperature or its historical context. Instead we hear meaningless anecdotes (e.g. 2004 was the warmest year in X years) from “presentists” caught up in the moment.

Interesting, the Mann “hockey stick” graph, as it appeared in the 2001 IPCC report, is reproduced in a recent book published by the American Bar Association entitled “Global Climate Change and the Law,” edited by Michael Gerrard. While Gerrard admits in his introductory chapter that “this depiction became controversial,” he quotes approvingly the NRC which concluded “with a high degree of confidence that global mean surface temperature was higher during the last few decades of the 20th century than during any comparable period during the preceding four centuries.” Again, a meaningless statement when viewed against the Little Ice Age history. One would have thought that our recent 1970s experience with predictions of a coming ice age would have cautioned the doomsayers, but they never seem to learn. Lawyers, of course, stand to make a good living off the complex regulatory schemes imposed by local, state, federal governments, which is why lawyers Gerrard et al accepted the global warming hype and worked backwards to supply the “evidence.”

Kudos to Steve and Ross for discovering the flaws in Mann’s research methodology.

By: John Brignell

John Brignell — Wed, 18 Jul 2007 17:29:59 +0000

The relative suppression of the English mediaeval viticulture was largely a political matter. It is rather too long to quote directly, but you will find a discussion of it at:
http://www.numberwatch.co.uk/2006%20March.htm#vino

By: jackee

jackee — Wed, 18 Jul 2007 08:40:57 +0000

i read all blogs mostly about to making wine in these tempreture proxy and interesting in grape wine. i
am also a wine blog lover.

By: John F. Pittman

John F. Pittman — Thu, 03 May 2007 22:40:30 +0000

#36

Yes, but the interesting part is not about temperature proxies in modern times but reliable estimates of temperature in past times of LIA and MWP. And note we will assume that the lab developed strains did not exit as one of our working assumptions.

By: DougM

DougM — Thu, 03 May 2007 01:29:21 +0000

Some current grape varieties have been bred to withstand much colder conditions. There are some wine grapes that will wistand -40 centigrade winter temperatures, developed by the U. of Minnesota. The northward migration of grape growing in recent times in NA is he result of improvements of cold resistance in varieties and growing techniques. Care should be taken to eliminate the possible effect of these variables before the acceptence of grapesas atemperature proxy.

By: Mark T.

Mark T. — Thu, 03 May 2007 00:04:33 +0000

Yeah, they said that if they let the grapes thaw in the sun, the sugar deteriorates within the day. As a result, they harvest in the dead of night. Gotta pay them harvesters big bucks for that.

Mark

By: bender

bender — Wed, 02 May 2007 23:52:01 +0000

It is sweet because the sugar content goes through the roof as a result of freezing. And expensive because it takes a lot of grapes due to low amount of juice you get from a frozen grape. I think global coolers in the 1970s were predicting that ice wine one day will be grown in Florida.

By: Mark T.

Mark T. — Wed, 02 May 2007 23:37:21 +0000

Pardon my ignorance. I did not know that Missouri produced wines. Now I am intrigued.
What are they like?

Outstanding, but I’m biased given that I went to school in the Ozarks, and grew up in St. Louis. My favorite is a Norton from Stone Hill Winery. My brothers and I once even did a road trip to Hermann (many wineries there) for their version of “Octoberfest” which ended rather… well, the three of us shouldn’t drink together.

Not grapes, just they did not have enough sugar to be commerical in nature. Although temperature can be harsh, the varietals appear to be about weather condition not temperature.

A particularly interesting grape is the one they use to produce the Canadian “Ice Wine.” I have seen a special on it (Discovery or something) and they harvest the little dudes while _frozen_. Seems odd. I have not had the wine yet.

Mark

By: bender

bender — Wed, 02 May 2007 22:57:48 +0000

That is why in #14 I pointed to the Chuine thread. There are threads for grapes (harvest volume, harvest date, sugar content, etc.) as a climate proxy.

By: kchua

kchua — Wed, 02 May 2007 22:20:36 +0000

#26

Pardon my ignorance. I did not know that Missouri produced wines. Now I am intrigued.
What are they like?

Steve, I realise this is not the forum for a discussion on wine. But just this once …