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	<title>Comments on: Briffa and MBH99 Smoothing</title>
	<atom:link href="http://climateaudit.org/2007/05/14/briffa-and-mbh99-smoothing/feed/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>http://climateaudit.org/2007/05/14/briffa-and-mbh99-smoothing/</link>
	<description>by Steve McIntyre</description>
	<lastBuildDate>Mon, 20 May 2013 09:05:54 +0000</lastBuildDate>
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	<item>
		<title>By: UC</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2007/05/14/briffa-and-mbh99-smoothing/#comment-88095</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[UC]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 15 May 2007 05:52:27 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=1564#comment-88095</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Here&#039;s how I understood it:

Take 1-sigma and 2-sigma envelopes of all 10 reconstructions (*1). At given year go through all temperatures, and count scores. If given temperature is only within one 2-sigma envelope, lightest color is used (0..10), as the score is 5. If temperature does not touch any of those envelopes, no points, and color will be white. Within 1-sigma envelope, they&#039;ll give double points. Go through all points of the figure (y=temperature, x=year).

The problem is that this doesn&#039;t explain the width of coloring from 1960-present. Maybe they heard me laughing when I saw MannJones2003,  http://www.geocities.com/uc_edit/divergence.html



*1 Note that there are 12 reconstructions in Fig. 6.10 b ...]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Here&#8217;s how I understood it:</p>
<p>Take 1-sigma and 2-sigma envelopes of all 10 reconstructions (*1). At given year go through all temperatures, and count scores. If given temperature is only within one 2-sigma envelope, lightest color is used (0..10), as the score is 5. If temperature does not touch any of those envelopes, no points, and color will be white. Within 1-sigma envelope, they&#8217;ll give double points. Go through all points of the figure (y=temperature, x=year).</p>
<p>The problem is that this doesn&#8217;t explain the width of coloring from 1960-present. Maybe they heard me laughing when I saw MannJones2003,  <a href="http://www.geocities.com/uc_edit/divergence.html" rel="nofollow">http://www.geocities.com/uc_edit/divergence.html</a></p>
<p>*1 Note that there are 12 reconstructions in Fig. 6.10 b &#8230;</p>
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		<title>By: bender</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2007/05/14/briffa-and-mbh99-smoothing/#comment-88094</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[bender]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 14 May 2007 22:25:45 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=1564#comment-88094</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Crowley &amp; Lowrey (orange) fits within the Fig. 6.10 anomaly envelope at ca. 1800-1850 (assuming that&#039;s a valid, apples-to-apples comparison). The question is why the 6.10 interval is so wide. Frankly, the caption makes no sense to me. If they supplied code, I would not have to second guess what they did. Do you understand the caption, UC?

One thing to note on Fig. 6.10 is the high top end of the envelope at ~AD990. I&#039;ve commented on it several times now (based on other papers) and have yet to hear a single comment back. It seems to me the thouuuuuuusand year AD mark is itself cherry-picked. Warmers don&#039;t want to talk about the potentially unprecedented trend AD910-990.

Finally, why are anomalies computed using the 1961-1990? Shouldn&#039;t they be using the 1970-200 window, now that it is 2007? Isn&#039;t that what we always  used to do? Looks like the baseline might have been cherry-picked too.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Crowley &amp; Lowrey (orange) fits within the Fig. 6.10 anomaly envelope at ca. 1800-1850 (assuming that&#8217;s a valid, apples-to-apples comparison). The question is why the 6.10 interval is so wide. Frankly, the caption makes no sense to me. If they supplied code, I would not have to second guess what they did. Do you understand the caption, UC?</p>
<p>One thing to note on Fig. 6.10 is the high top end of the envelope at ~AD990. I&#8217;ve commented on it several times now (based on other papers) and have yet to hear a single comment back. It seems to me the thouuuuuuusand year AD mark is itself cherry-picked. Warmers don&#8217;t want to talk about the potentially unprecedented trend AD910-990.</p>
<p>Finally, why are anomalies computed using the 1961-1990? Shouldn&#8217;t they be using the 1970-200 window, now that it is 2007? Isn&#8217;t that what we always  used to do? Looks like the baseline might have been cherry-picked too.</p>
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	<item>
		<title>By: UC</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2007/05/14/briffa-and-mbh99-smoothing/#comment-88093</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[UC]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 14 May 2007 18:57:31 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=1564#comment-88093</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[# 6

Different picture, I&#039;m puzzled by IPCC AR4 Ch 6 Fig 6.10, sorry for OT. Caption says


&lt;blockquote&gt;Overlap of the published multi-decadal time scale uncertainty ranges of all temperature reconstructions identified in Table 6.1 (except for RMO..2005 and PS2004), with temperatures within ⯱ standard error (SE) of a reconstruction scoring&#039; 10%, and regions within the 5 to 95% range scoring&#039; 5% (the maximum 100% is obtained only for temperatures that fall within ⯱ SE of all 10 reconstructions).&lt;/blockquote&gt;]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p># 6</p>
<p>Different picture, I&#8217;m puzzled by IPCC AR4 Ch 6 Fig 6.10, sorry for OT. Caption says</p>
<blockquote><p>Overlap of the published multi-decadal time scale uncertainty ranges of all temperature reconstructions identified in Table 6.1 (except for RMO..2005 and PS2004), with temperatures within ⯱ standard error (SE) of a reconstruction scoring&#8217; 10%, and regions within the 5 to 95% range scoring&#8217; 5% (the maximum 100% is obtained only for temperatures that fall within ⯱ SE of all 10 reconstructions).</p></blockquote>
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		<title>By: Michael Jankowski</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2007/05/14/briffa-and-mbh99-smoothing/#comment-88092</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Michael Jankowski]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 14 May 2007 18:40:12 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=1564#comment-88092</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[&lt;blockquote&gt;It&#039;s not a confidence interval. Instead, it&#039;s more of a confidence “envelope”, created as the:
“Overlap of the published multi-decadal time scale uncertainty ranges of all temperature reconstructions identified in Table 6.1&#039;€³
It&#039;s probably the overlap that makes it so wide.&lt;/blockquote&gt;

And yet Crowley and Lowrey (orange) goes outside all the envelopes in the 1800s.  Does that mean it&#039;s not in Table 6.1, and if not, why is it shown graphically?]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<blockquote><p>It&#8217;s not a confidence interval. Instead, it&#8217;s more of a confidence “envelope”, created as the:<br />
“Overlap of the published multi-decadal time scale uncertainty ranges of all temperature reconstructions identified in Table 6.1&#8242;€³<br />
It&#8217;s probably the overlap that makes it so wide.</p></blockquote>
<p>And yet Crowley and Lowrey (orange) goes outside all the envelopes in the 1800s.  Does that mean it&#8217;s not in Table 6.1, and if not, why is it shown graphically?</p>
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	<item>
		<title>By: UC</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2007/05/14/briffa-and-mbh99-smoothing/#comment-88091</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[UC]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 14 May 2007 17:56:55 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=1564#comment-88091</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[#2
I still don&#039;t get it.. What reconstruction makes 0..10 color down to -0.6 C? What makes it up to +0.7 C? And it seems that PS2004 uncertainties are not used, it cannot bring that up..]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>#2<br />
I still don&#8217;t get it.. What reconstruction makes 0..10 color down to -0.6 C? What makes it up to +0.7 C? And it seems that PS2004 uncertainties are not used, it cannot bring that up..</p>
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		<title>By: Dave Dardinger</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2007/05/14/briffa-and-mbh99-smoothing/#comment-88090</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Dave Dardinger]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 14 May 2007 14:43:40 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=1564#comment-88090</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Hyrum,

You might want to start by looking at the page linked in the left-hand margin second box, &quot;Common Acronyms used on This Blog&quot; or CATB if you prefer.  (The alternative title, &quot;Common Acronyms of Climate Audit&quot; unfortunately has an Acronym, CACA, which would be too enthusiastically adopted by certain resident trolls.)]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Hyrum,</p>
<p>You might want to start by looking at the page linked in the left-hand margin second box, &#8220;Common Acronyms used on This Blog&#8221; or CATB if you prefer.  (The alternative title, &#8220;Common Acronyms of Climate Audit&#8221; unfortunately has an Acronym, CACA, which would be too enthusiastically adopted by certain resident trolls.)</p>
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	</item>
	<item>
		<title>By: Hyrum</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2007/05/14/briffa-and-mbh99-smoothing/#comment-88089</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Hyrum]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 14 May 2007 13:31:13 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=1564#comment-88089</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I am interested in knowing what is going on in the environment, and I don&#039;t want to take the politician&#039;s words as fact.  I just don&#039;t understand what all those graphs mean. Could some one provide some definitions for all this?]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I am interested in knowing what is going on in the environment, and I don&#8217;t want to take the politician&#8217;s words as fact.  I just don&#8217;t understand what all those graphs mean. Could some one provide some definitions for all this?</p>
]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>By: bender</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2007/05/14/briffa-and-mbh99-smoothing/#comment-88088</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[bender]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 14 May 2007 13:21:12 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=1564#comment-88088</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[&lt;blockquote&gt;can anyone explain 6.10 c uncertainties&#039;, they seem to expand from 1960-present quite remarkably&lt;/blockquote&gt;
It&#039;s not a confidence interval. Instead, it&#039;s more of a confidence &quot;envelope&quot;, created as the:
&quot;Overlap of the published multi-decadal time scale uncertainty ranges of all temperature reconstructions identified in Table 6.1&quot;
It&#039;s probably the overlap that makes it so wide.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<blockquote><p>can anyone explain 6.10 c uncertainties&#8217;, they seem to expand from 1960-present quite remarkably</p></blockquote>
<p>It&#8217;s not a confidence interval. Instead, it&#8217;s more of a confidence &#8220;envelope&#8221;, created as the:<br />
&#8220;Overlap of the published multi-decadal time scale uncertainty ranges of all temperature reconstructions identified in Table 6.1&#8243;<br />
It&#8217;s probably the overlap that makes it so wide.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>By: UC</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2007/05/14/briffa-and-mbh99-smoothing/#comment-88087</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[UC]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 14 May 2007 12:29:30 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=1564#comment-88087</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[AR4 Ch6 fig 6.10 b is trickier, same kind of smooth there? BTW, can anyone explain 6.10 c &#039;uncertainties&#039;, they seem to expand from 1960-present quite remarkably..]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>AR4 Ch6 fig 6.10 b is trickier, same kind of smooth there? BTW, can anyone explain 6.10 c &#8216;uncertainties&#8217;, they seem to expand from 1960-present quite remarkably..</p>
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