I love your position that governments should make decisions on the best available information…and I don’t disagree. However, it seems a bit odd to call the surface temperature data the best available information. I would have to give that distinction to the satelite and balooon data, even if the trail doesn’t go back as long.

It is scary that the quality of the temperature data in the US is so suspect, when it is probably the best in the world. If my estimate is right, the US constitutes about 6% of the world area. If they can’t get it right over the 6% with the best equipment, what can we make of the data from the rest?

I have never seen what the standard error is of the SST. How big is it and is all the observed change within the error of measurement?

By the way, I do agree that a government has to go with the best guess at a point in time if there is an incumbant reason to do so. At this point, it doesn’t look like there is much urgency…and then, I would suggest that it should reasonbaly wait until they have the quality of information necessary to make expensive decisions.

I suspect you will enjoy this story. I was briefing this joker (http://www.af.mil/bios/bio.asp?bioID=5383)
and his horse holder whose last name was Abel: Fain and Abel.

Without getting into the details, at one point, Fain plops his rather small cowboy boots on the
table and fires this missile down my snot locker:

“son, are you trying to blow smoke up my ass”

…..

“Not as far as you know sir”

That was pretty damn funny, I thought. I do believe my boss shat himself.

Fain laughed. Abel scribbled notes.

The Mig 17″F” was equipped with the same engine fitted with an afterburner but I still don’t think it was supersonic. The Mig 17 superfluates the BBQ (note none visible at this site). Imagine how many weenies you could roast at full afterburner!

Re # 111

A fagot is also a British pork meat ball according to Wikipedia, but I trust Wikipedia only slightly more than RealClimate.

I thought the Mig15 was non afterburning and the 17 was afterburning? Not that you light
it up next to the weather sensor.

I asked that question of a CWO program manager at a WSFO….I also asked if the MMTS units were periodically checked for accuracy.

That would be a silly and incorrect thing to do in this Mann’s world.

“Where is the calibration record of each instrument?”

I asked that question of a CWO program manager at a WSFO. The answer: “there isn’t one”. Or at least one that he knew of.

I also asked if the MMTS units were periodically checked for accuracy. The answer: “only if somebody complains that they seem to be reading incorrectly”.

The larger issues, the statistical issues, revolve around how they wwill correlate the new system with the old system.

I have an even simpler question. Let us try to correlate the old system with the old system

Where is the calibration record of each instrument?

Yeah, Mig 15 and 17 are very similar. Both use the same Klimov VK-1 engine so their effect on temperature readings would be the same. How do these guys have the cojones to use such compromised data and make such arrogantly confident projections?

P.S. I don’t think its PC to use the old NATO designation “Fagot” for the Mig 15. Perhaps a kinder gentler call name such as “Fabulous” could be substituted.