There has been some turmoil yesterday on the leaderboard of the U.S. (Temperature) Open and there is a new leader.
A little unexpectedly, 1998 had a late bogey and 1934 had a late birdie. (I thought that they were both in the clubhouse since the turmoil seemed to be in the 2000s.) In any event, the new leader atop the U.S. Open is 1934.
2006 had a couple of late bogeys and fell to 4th place, behind even 1921. I think that there’s a little air in the 2006 numbers even within GISS procedures as the other post-2000 lost about 0.15 strokes through late bogeys, while it lost only 0.10 strokes. It is faltering and it might yet fall behind 1931 into 5th place.
Four of the top 10 are now from the 1930s: 1934, 1931, 1938 and 1939, while only 3 of the top 10 are from the last 10 years (1998, 2006, 1999). Several years (2000, 2002, 2003, 2004) fell well down the leaderboard, behind even 1900. (World rankings are calculated separately.) Note: For the new leaderboard see http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/Fig.D.txt. The old data has been erased; by sheer chance, I had the old data active in my R-session but I can’t give a link to it.)
GISS U.S. Temperatures (deg C) in New Order
| Year | Old | New |
| 1934 | 1.23 | 1.25 |
| 1998 | 1.24 | 1.23 |
| 1921 | 1.12 | 1.15 |
| 2006 | 1.23 | 1.13 |
| 1931 | 1.08 | 1.08 |
| 1999 | 0.94 | 0.93 |
| 1953 | 0.91 | 0.90 |
| 1990 | 0.88 | 0.87 |
| 1938 | 0.85 | 0.86 |
| 1939 | 0.84 | 0.85 |
Here’s the old leaderboard.
| Year | Old | New |
| 1998 | 1.24 | 1.23 |
| 1934 | 1.23 | 1.25 |
| 2006 | 1.23 | 1.13 |
| 1921 | 1.12 | 1.15 |
| 1931 | 1.08 | 1.08 |
| 1999 | 0.94 | 0.93 |
| 1953 | 0.91 | 0.90 |
| 2001 | 0.90 | 0.76 |
| 1990 | 0.88 | 0.87 |
| 1938 | 0.85 | 0.86 |
Climate Audit 
157 Comments
No doubt whispered with a British accent.
I think this answers my question regarding what years were affected by the error. Apparently every year since 2000. Although I still do not understand how 1934 got the late birdie to take the lead.
pk, I was thinking the same thing as I read the posting 🙂
Steve, does GISS recognize / acknowledge the above or is this your analysis only thus far? When do the world rankings come out?
This is based entirely on GISS numbers as presently online. The results are pretty much in accordance with what I ball parked (and BTW I don’t necessarily agree that their processing is written in stone.) 2006 wasn’t adjusted as much as the other years – why: who knows?
They’ve said that this does not make any real difference to the world rankings. The problems with Chinese and Indonesian SST temperatures are each distinct. I’ve observed many times that the US results, where there are rural stations, differ remarkably from the ROW results and the ROW results deserve even more analysis than the US results.
Would it be possible to put up the former leader board for comparison?
Steve:From whence?
Steve, thanks for the explanation. I had gone to the GISS website looking for a press release and, when I found none, thought I would ask 🙂
Steve, Have you done a new linear regression on this data? I’m getting some very interesting results (trend is .04 deg C/decade).
Should be .046 deg C/decade.
Steve, could you put up a plot of the lower 48 US states temperature anomaly from 1979 through 2006 using the new GISS, the latest Hadley and the UAH and RSS MSU data? I was only able to find the data from version 2 of HADCRU up to 2005 in easy-to-use form. The correlation between yearly averages from Hadley and UAH seemed to be quite good to me, 0.92 using Excel CORREL function. Interestingly enough, the linear trend through the yearly averages was slightly higher for the UAH satellite lower troposphere data. In fact it was 0.29 C/decade compared to 0.24/decade for the surface temperature. This is, IIRC, about the amount the models predict.
Yes, we’re talking about less than 2% of the earth’s surface, but all the systematic errors in the satellite data interpretation found so far have been global, so one good calibration point may be enough.
Let me get this straight, because I want to be sure of the significance of this: with the adjustments due to the fixing of the “Hansen Y2K error”, the ranking of the hottest years in America has been largely re-ordered? If that’s the case, that’s pretty big news. I hope the University of Guelph (that’s where you work, right?) has their publicist ready to handle the calls!
#11. No, it’s my friend and coauthor McKitrick at U of Guelph. No calls for me yet. They’ve been “re-ordered” – have they been “largely re-ordered” – that’s a stronger claim.
Does this affect the global rankings substantively?
Shouldn’t that read “fell to 4th place”, not 5th?
Mark
Sorry, now I’ve read post #4. Nevermind.
I wonder now what everyone thinks of the surfacestations work over at the other blogs. Or even the openness and worth of the adjustments done, and the “trust us we’re climate scientists, no need to examine our work” mantra.
Is it just me or have they changed their numbers again? I’d swear this morning (Europe time), when I posted in the Hansen-Y2K thread, 2006 was still ahead of 1921.
Don’t suppose you might link to the actual page within the GISS website?
My guess is that the AGW True Believers will say that it means nothing and we’re just nitpicking.
Re #19
bigcitylib,
Maybe not as obvious as gravel on asphalt, but the link is in the last paragraph.
Well, that is the first of the statistical mistakes… I wonder what it will look like after the asphault, wind and bbq adjustment.
Re: 19
BCL
Bit of a cold shower? Must be.
Assuming GISS adjusts 2006 down some more [as they may well have to] we’ll be left with a bladeless hockey stick.
Talk about putting the puck in the net. Well done, Steve.
Re:5
Stan
The old leaderboard has been erased, but Steve appears to have archived that data. It certainly makes one wonder why the need to cover the tracks?
Even a stopped clock is right twice a day. Congrats Steve. Did a quickie post on this at:
http://bigcitylib.blogspot.com/2007/08/give-denier-his-due.html#links
I don’t think they’re covering their tracks, it’s simply outdated information now and should be removed.
Mark
Climate change in action.
Several renditions of GISS USA historical temperature average ‘anomalies’
may be viewed at the following links.
as of June 2000
as of March 2001
as of February 2007
as of this morning
A saved version of the data (excludes 2006) is available via the Wayback Machine here:
http://web.archive.org/web/*/http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/Fig.D.txt
Re: 26
Mark T
One does not discard old data sets just because there are now new “adjusted” ones. We have refence libraries full of “old” data, invaluable for comparative analysis. We didn’t erase Newton’s calculations after Einstein demonstrated that they were partially flawed and “updated” our understanding of the universe. [Steve M., my apologies for the somewhat off-topic analogy].
Congratulations Steve!
On your own you’ve managed to reduce temperatures more than the Kyoto Protocol ever could!
–Chris
#28…Google cached a version on Jul 23, 2007 15:04:08 GMT. Here it is:
Contiguous 48 U.S. Surface Air Temperature Anomaly (C)
——————————————————
year Annual_Mean 5-year_Mean
———————————
1880 -.27 *
1881 .28 *
1882 .08 -.24
1883 -.67 -.29
1884 -.63 -.41
1885 -.52 -.46
1886 -.29 -.39
1887 -.20 -.21
1888 -.33 -.07
1889 .28 -.05
1890 .18 -.11
1891 -.20 -.19
1892 -.50 -.22
1893 -.73 -.39
1894 .16 -.31
1895 -.65 -.23
1896 .17 -.11
1897 -.08 -.22
1898 -.14 .02
1899 -.41 .00
1900 .57 -.01
1901 .05 -.11
1902 -.13 -.13
1903 -.64 -.33
1904 -.48 -.35
1905 -.46 -.37
1906 -.01 -.21
1907 -.25 -.17
1908 .14 -.03
1909 -.28 .01
1910 .27 -.11
1911 .15 -.15
1912 -.87 -.08
1913 -.04 -.16
1914 .08 -.30
1915 -.13 -.33
1916 -.52 -.31
1917 -1.06 -.35
1918 .06 -.41
1919 -.11 -.08
1920 -.41 .17
1921 1.12 .14
1922 .17 .02
1923 -.07 .17
1924 -.73 -.05
1925 .36 -.05
1926 .04 -.02
1927 .14 .01
1928 .08 -.03
1929 -.57 .18
1930 .16 .15
1931 1.08 .27
1932 .00 .63
1933 .66 .60
1934 1.23 .42
1935 .03 .39
1936 .18 .43
1937 -.13 .35
1938 .85 .36
1939 .84 .44
1940 .03 .49
1941 .62 .35
1942 .09 .21
1943 .16 .20
1944 .14 .21
1945 -.03 .21
1946 .70 .17
1947 .09 .18
1948 -.08 .12
1949 .20 -.10
1950 -.30 -.05
1951 -.42 .14
1952 .32 .27
1953 .91 .32
1954 .82 .45
1955 -.05 .42
1956 .27 .25
1957 .14 .12
1958 .07 .09
1959 .17 .03
1960 -.23 .00
1961 .00 .02
1962 -.02 -.03
1963 .19 -.01
1964 -.08 -.05
1965 -.12 -.07
1966 -.24 -.16
1967 -.10 -.19
1968 -.28 -.19
1969 -.23 -.17
1970 -.12 -.22
1971 -.10 -.11
1972 -.36 -.04
1973 .25 -.05
1974 .16 -.08
1975 -.19 .07
1976 -.23 -.08
1977 .37 -.23
1978 -.51 -.15
1979 -.58 .03
1980 .22 -.12
1981 .65 -.01
1982 -.36 .11
1983 .00 -.02
1984 .02 -.01
1985 -.42 .24
1986 .73 .30
1987 .85 .26
1988 .34 .52
1989 -.18 .52
1990 .88 .41
1991 .70 .26
1992 .31 .39
1993 -.43 .28
1994 .47 .11
1995 .35 .06
1996 -.17 .39
1997 .05 .48
1998 1.24 .54
1999 .94 .76
2000 .65 .88
2001 .90 .76
2002 .68 .69
2003 .65 .73
2004 .60 .80
2005 .85 *
2006 1.23 *
———————————
With the correction for the period 2000-2007, what do the records now indicate for total warming in the US in that time period?
We’re clearly experiencing wild climate change across the board!
So the average of the 1930s was +.500 from the defined mean, and the average of the 1990s was +.424, and the 2000s so far is .493?
Given that these results are from calculations that were in error, yes, we do. Their presence serves no point.
There’s a difference between old data and data that was created in error. The error in this case created meaningless data, with no value for comparison. Certainly studies that used such erroneous data should now be reassessed, however.
Newton’s calculations still hold for less than relativistic velocities, and hence, serve as a good approximation to what really happens in a lab. The analogy here is thin, at best.
Mark
I’m still pretty amazed by this. This is going to be huge in the media. Think of how many studies are invalidated by this! Can someone who has access to WebOfScience, etc. do a citation search for one of the Hansen/Karl GISS temperature studies to see how many dependencies there are?
…and from the 19-teens to the 1930s, the trend was +.356/decade, but from 1970s average to the average of the 2000s is +.158/decade?
o.k., the 2000s have fewer years, and this mucks with the numbers…but still…
Correction: …and from the 19-teens to the 1930s, the trend was +.356/decade, but from 1980s average to the average of the 2000s is +.158/decade?
o.k., the 2000s have fewer years, and this mucks with the numbers…but still
Re #19:
The link you requested showing the revised GISS Annual Mean Temperature Graph is here.
I would like to encourage caution regarding the recent adjustments to the adjustments.
They may be replaced by other adjustments at any time that the folks at GISS my decide to do so.
The recent changes to the adjustments seem to me to be a rather dubious attempt
to reconcile incompatibilities between using some USHCN adjustments for pre-2000
data, and using raw USHCN data for subsequent years.
Meanwhile, we can enjoy watching the show while avoiding taking it too seriously.
Re: 35
Mark T
The question I have, as I know a good number of others do too, is: was this data which you argue was “created in error” in fact created for a purpose? Therein lies the adder, because if so, the legal implications and political ramifiactions are of consequence. Your other points all well taken.
JerryB, thanks for your post and your links to old GISS versions. Here’s a graph of the post-1970 changes in the four versions you linked to:
Note the difference between the trend in the June 2000 “data” and the current “data” …
w.
Steve:
My guess is that your main point remains that the data is being adjusted by unspecified and unpublicized means leaving them still unreplicable. What I admire most about your work on this site is your commitment to the fundamentals of good science. Hopefully, this latest set of adjustments will trigger a greater degree of openness than has hitherto been evident.
35: While, the old data should not be on the front page and should be clearly labelled as in error, it is desirable not to delete it as mixed compilations or papers that have used the data set may be examined and it is useful to have what they worked off of.
bigcitylib: You keep this up your going to have to call yourself a denier.
ALL…
I⳶e been browsing through Nasa-Giss for some years and
I would say that the rest of the world is even worse,
perhaps much worse…If we get some more Pinatubos
or Mt Helens … the port of Lisbon will once more freeze over
It snowed there though Jan 29 2006 BUT did not settle
like it did last time Feb 2, 1954…Cold in Europe
warm in US at least annually…1987 warm US very cold
year in all of Sweden…the latest one …Yes and I want
to mention when I started browsing Nasa Giss in August
of 2005 they had already the annual mean for 2005!!! Anybody else
remembering seen/saved that?? Just that and you get a
little suspicious regarding methods …Just tops
of icebergs melting yet…
Steve,
Congrats again on this discovery. It seems you have your pick of peer reviewed journals to publish this story in now. I hope you pick one with a large readership.
It should just be a simple note. May even be best handled in the NASA paper already being worked on. None of the speculation, Cram-cackling, gloating, etc. Mosh-pit hits the right note.
Re: 44
TCO
Speaks to my point about “reference libraries”.
4/Steve: I think this post “problems with” should be more neutral. You don’t know if they have problems or not. Perhaps they’re underestimating warming even. I think when you are careful, you keep more caveats in, but every now and then the mask drops…
Why have you gone all cutesy and presented this really interesting and important data as a golf game?
For a start that guarantees those that neither know nor care about golf can’t follow the article with any sense of understanding.
This has always been a great website with well presented factual information, okay often a bit too scientific for most, so why have you suddenly dropped into this golf analogy style?
Have you fallen for the trap of trying to hide something or are you so proud of it that it deserved a better staus than normal (with the glee of overconfidence).
Work of this significance needs a better standard of reporting, not some golf mumbo jumbo – leave that to a commentator to do in their blog for their audience that might understand it.
Steve,
I like your writing style. I’m sorry Warwick does not, but I hope you continue to write exactly as you do.
Also, may I suggest you consent to an interview on Hannity and Colmes? I think Hannity would like to discuss the implications of your discovery and what other subjects you are investigating.
Oh sure. After years of condescension from the team at realclimate, I think we’re entitled to a little payback.
1998: the warmest year on record
1998: the warmest year on record
1998: the warmest year on record
1998: the warmest year on record
1998: the warmest year on record
OOPS!
1934: the warmest year on record
Doesn’t quite have the same scare-value, does it?
One of the amusing things about this is why the rankings of 1934 and 1998 should be reversed after they are both long in the clubhouse? Why should the correction of an erroneous change from USHCN adjusted data up to 2000 to GHCN raw data after 2000 affect their rankings? Doncha think that such software needs a little cross-examination?
50, What should he say? If the china and India sites are not accurate that is a problem no matter which way the bias is. 51, golf has no place if this is to be publish in a peer reviewed article. But this is a blog the same standards don’t apply.
Steve, Hannity is a moron. Everyone who knew him in Atlanta is amazed he is rich now. I guess he hits the average idiot level well.
#51
Just a hunch (could be wrong) but “Warwick” is not the true Warwick who has done so much admirable work in this area.
re: 54
Steve,
This is exactly the same issue I was commenting on in #2 above. It looks like GISS knew they had other errors and decided to correct them at the same time they corrected the error you found. Perhaps you will have an opportunity to ask Jim Hansen about it sometime soon.
When do we get to see the source code that GISS is using? If their work is publicly funded and having a major impact on public policy, we as taxpayers should have a right to access and review their code.
This black box stuff has got to go the way of the dinosaur.
I’ve been an application developer for ages and understand how easy it is to make mistakes, so I’m not interested in pointing fingers. However, the code they are using needs to be subject to a public audit and review process.
Kudos to Steve and Anthony and to all of the other inquiring minds on this blog. Fascinating reading material.
re: 56
TCO,
Are you suggesting Steve turn down an invitation from Hannity if one is forthcoming?
Wow! So Al Gore was right when he said “All of our economies will be hurt if the Year 2000 Problem is not solved in time.” http://bogota.usembassy.gov/wwwsagni.shtml. Thanks to Steve M. we are finally making some progress.
Anthony Watts’ data collection may in fact be a positive endeavor leading to valuable information. It’s lookin’ pretty good today.
Every single adjustment after 1972 is flat or decreasing. Even ignoring the post-2000 data that’s odd.
Steve needs to get his head straight, write the published papers, hand me the R code that he is holding out on, do an honest assessment of overall HS impact (not NA PC1) from decentering alone, etc. Those all first.
“When do we get to see the source code that GISS is using? If their work is publicly funded and having a major impact on public policy, we as taxpayers should have a right to access and review their code.”
To say nothing of scientific method!
re: #51 Warwick,
Well, for one thing, in open play, it’s always possible for someone to come back at the end. Particularly when there’s someone close to the leader. You mentioned “trap”. Well, landing in a trap can easily blow a lead. Not that I’m a golfer but both my brothers are. And coming from Jack Nicklaus’ hometown, I followed it. Right now I’d say the warmers are a stroke or two up but hit their tee shot in the deep rough on #15.
Interesting times. I wonder how this new adjustment will square with the observed solar activity. Wasn’t that discounted due to recent decreasing solar output not matching a continued rise in observed temperatures?
In any event I am looking forward to some interesting conversations in light of this, congratulations.
Re:63
TCO
Out of curiosity, ever asked Hanssen and Co or anyone else that side of the fence for the same type of standards, by way of “those all first”? Assuming you did, ever get them to play? If so, I’m sure many of us would like to see. Straight head, cricket, the goose and the gander, and all of that, you know?
re:63
TCO,
What is this nonsense about Steve withholding code? I do not buy it for a minute. And you want an honest assessment of the HS? You’ve got to be kidding, right? Steve has written more than enough on that subject. The Hockey Stick is broken. It cannot be taped back together.
Not only are the 90s not the warmest decade of the last thousand years, they are not even the warmest decade in the 20th century… at least in North America. And as Pielke and Steve say, the warming bias outside the U.S. is probably greater than inside.
TCO, why do you want to derail Steve’s efforts so much? What you are afraid of?
It now seems “plausible” that there may have been a miscalculation. We can blame it on the computer. I saw a new model of a hockey stick in a sports store – it has a bend in the middle like a shovel handle or those curling brooms so us old timers do not have to bend over.
Fantastic work, i’ve been reading the blog for months now, and i’m always impressed by the quality of you work. I just hope that the media won’t take too long to digest this information.
As somebody who doesn’t do computer code but does read history, I gotta say that learning that 1934 is a contendah is not a surprise.
Yeah, Grapes of Wrath and all that… there was a reason, ya know.
Mark
#55
Yes, I know about blog standards or lack of but this article is way out of context with everything else here that reeks of credibility
#57
Never done any work in the area, just a very interested observer who gets lost in the science here so usually rely on someone else’s interpretation. Just disappointed by lack of scientific approach – more like a style adopted by warmists.
#65
I think they are setting about building their own course and trying to get others to play on it. Me, I think the entry fee is way too excessive!
#80
Ron Cram, TCO is ‘trying to derail’ Steve’s efforts. He just has different ideas about what Steve’s priorities should be. Sure, he’s opinionated about it (and annoying), but viva la difference I say.
Does the Giss set use the Folland and Parker bucket correction?
JF
Just posted the following at Pielke Sr’s site:
Umm . . . that didn’t come out the way I expected. Could someone point me to a quick reference guide to using html tags?
Congrats Steve and Anthony on this initial finding. Having read many of your posts this does resemble one of the stylistic approaches you take from time to time.
I would suspect once you have had more time to look at the data we will see a more serious post with more quantitative analysis. While changing which year was the warmest changes little for me on a statistical point of view, sadly many have been scared into believing in AGW based on the populist claims made by Gore (and others) that are proving to be ill informed (at least considering Gore seemed so confident that he’d bet his entire possessions that the claims are objectively true). What does catch my eye is the warming trend since 1970 has been cut in half. This will surely throw off the computer models quite a bit.
I just hope you are able to set a good example out of this. Get a paper published, while providing full disclosure of the data and methodologies. Teach those guys over at realclimate how to follow the scientific method.
Dear Steve, very good job. Congratulations. If I understand well this is US data only. Maybe people promoting the CO2->T causal relationship will have to do some homework since I’ve been told (I ignore if is true) CO2 emission levels did fall in the US immediately after the 1929 crash. Maybe Ross can check it quickly.
best
I can confirm that the Warwick in #57 amd #74 is not Warwick Hughes, but another Warwick. This has caused confusion amongst some old timers but I’m sure its not done deliberately by anyone. WH doesn’t have a trademark on the name.
Steve –
Do we have any error bars on those temperatures?
Rafa –
CO2 is well mixed in the atmosphere, so any change in US emissions in the 1930s would not be noticed. In any case, the current understanding is that we don’t have much of an AGW signal prior to the 1970s.
#81
Cheers John A, I shall breathe again and return to lurking…
GISS source code
http://www.giss.nasa.gov/tools/modelE/
If you continue to force the powers that be to revise surface temp trends, the case will eventually be made that you are validating the GCM’s. For the first time the ratio of tropospheric trends to surface trends will match the model predictions.
i dont understand, is this official, i mean will this be the official data, that for instance the NOAA will use
because that would mean a BIG victory for the sceptics,
Great news
Lurker, you say:
That is the source code for the GISS GCM computer model. What Steve M. is trying to obtain is the source code for the GISS temperature “data”, which is a very different thing.
All the best,
w.
From Web of Science – citations of GISS papers 10 yrs back:
Hansen J, Sato M, Ruedy R, et al.
Global temperature change
PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA 103 (39): 14288-14293 SEP 26 2006
Times Cited: 11
Schmidt GA, Ruedy R, Hansen JE, et al.
Present-day atmospheric simulations using GISS ModelE: Comparison to in situ, satellite, and reanalysis data
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 19 (2): 153-192 JAN 2006
Times Cited: 49
Hansen J, Sato M, Ruedy R, et al.
Efficacy of climate forcings
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES 110 (D18): Art. No. D18104 SEP 28 2005
Times Cited: 38
5. Santer BD, Wigley TML, Mears C, et al.
Amplification of surface temperature trends and variability in the tropical atmosphere
SCIENCE 309 (5740): 1551-1556 SEP 2 2005
Times Cited: 35
Oman L, Robock A, Stenchikov G, et al.
Climatic response to high-latitude volcanic eruptions
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES 110 (D13): Art. No. D13103 JUL 1 2005
Times Cited: 6
Hansen J, Nazarenko L, Ruedy R, et al.
Earth’s energy imbalance: Confirmation and implications
SCIENCE 308 (5727): 1431-1435 JUN 3 2005
Times Cited: 64
Santer BD, Sausen R, Wigley TML, et al.
Behavior of tropopause height and atmospheric temperature in models, reanalyses, and observations: Decadal changes
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES 108 (D1): Art. No. 4002 JAN 3 2003
Times Cited: 22
Hansen J, Sato M, Nazarenko L, et al.
Climate forcings in Goddard Institute for Space Studies SI2000 simulations
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES 107 (D18): Art. No. 4347 SEP 2002
Times Cited: 101
Hansen J, Ruedy R, Sato M, et al.
A closer look at United States and global surface temperature change
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES 106 (D20): 23947-23963 OCT 27 2001
Times Cited: 102
Russell GL, Miller JR, Rind D, et al.
Comparison of model and observed regional temperature changes during the past 40 years
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES 105 (D11): 14891-14898 JUN 16 2000
Times Cited: 34
Hansen J, Ruedy R, Glascoe J, et al.
GISS analysis of surface temperature change
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES 104 (D24): 30997-31022 DEC 27 1999
Times Cited: 182
Hansen JE, Sato M, Lacis A, et al.
Climate forcings in the Industrial era
PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA 95 (22): 12753-12758 OCT 27 1998
Times Cited: 150
Hansen J, Sato M, Ruedy R, et al.
Forcings and chaos in interannual to decadal climate change
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES 102 (D22): 25679-25720 NOV 27 1997
Times Cited: 108
Hansen J, Sato M, Ruedy R
Radiative forcing and climate response
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES 102 (D6): 6831-6864 MAR 27 1997
Times Cited: 382
re 80:
http://cdiac.esd.ornl.gov/trends/emis/tre_usa.htm
That was quite a temporal anomaly.
Wasn’t quite clear from the earlier post: did the error simply take place in 2000, or is Steve speculating that it is actually a result of the “Y2K” bug?
The silence on RealClimate is deafening!
Steve:
Perhaps you can repeat your most recent Pielke post here, adding who and where to write. Strike while the iron is hot and all that.
#42
Willis
Nobody has commented on your graph. Are you saying that despite these adjustments, the GISS data is showing an increase in the decade over decade temperature increase?
Lets distinguish between what Steve has done from GISS’ response.
Steve found a problem with how GISS was handling pre 2000 USHCN data
relative to post 1999 USHCN data.
The reponse by GISS, in addition to acknowledging, and describing the
problem further, was to back out a portion of USHCN adjustments from
pre 2000 data. GISS could have, and still could, decide instead to
add post 1999 USHCN adjustments. If they had, this thread would not
exist. If they do, this thread will seem odd at best.
[snip – religious words not allowed]
Starting at comment #110, Gavin at RC is commenting on Steve’s corrections to GISS.
Re: Bill’s comment
Bill,
Cannot you understand that it’s a big deal that 1930s were officially the hottest decade in the US on record? I mean, nearly 80 years later after pumping CO2 into the atmosphere like crazy, the 30s still top all? How can that possibly be given the precision with which climate scientists predict calamity?
We’ve been hearing ad nauseum about 0.6 degrees C of warming over the last century. Now that we’re finding out just how dodgy the data is, maybe climate scientists should stop asserting so confidently that temps have rising a fraction of a degree over a hundred years.
Re 98
Oh, only a small change? Look at the graph in comment #42. If that’s correct Steve has managed to cut the trend in the US by almost a third with just one “minor” correction.
If there are problems with the US data adjustments do you really think that other parts of the world are even close to ours in terms of reliability of measurements? What calculations are being used to correct those sites? I see many more True Believers in the AGW crowd than those of us who follow this site. For example, your post.
Folland and Parker’s bucket correction adds .3 dec C to the SSTs in the ’30s. If this correction is incorporated into GISS then it is easy to re-establish the heat primacy of the last decade. Remove the ‘correction’. However, the correction is there for the purpose of making the models work, is it not?
I know I have a vested interest in removing the bucket correction — it confuses the data from 39 to 45 — but I’m not sure that trying to re-establish a sensible correlation with CO2 levels is a valid reason for tinkering with the past willy-nilly.
JF
Gavin says that this has “nothing” to do with station quality problems. That’s not true. Defenders of abysmal quality sites argued that Hansen’s software could sort out bad data (sort of like Mann’s principal components, I guess.) Hansen’s software remains undisclosed, but it was obviously unequal to the challenge of identifying inconsistent splices. So I remain unconvinced that HAnsen or USHCN software can sort out bad data.
Also as far as the global data goes – the big question is why the US data with its high proportion of rural data – has a negligible trend, while the rest of the world has a very strong trend. Has the growth of Chinese and Indonesian cities been properly allowed for? (Actually GISS makes no allowance for it.)
JerryB, it no doubt is me, but I sometimes have a difficult time following your points. I think many of the posters here might not have the details to fill in what you are saying. More details in these posts would be great for those of us here to learn — recognizing that I might be slower in that department than others.
Steve, use some of the money I just put in the tip jar to feed Anthony Watts a nice dinner next time you see him, eh?
Kenneth,
See the thread “Quantifying the Hansen Y2K Error” at
http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=1868
including Reto Ruedy’s note to Steve, and my comments
56 and 57 in that thread.
GISS took an approach which eliminated the bump between pre 2000
and and post 1999 data, but they could take a different approach which
would leave the old “leaderboard” intact.
Re: #41
That’s a completely different fish to fry, and the fact that the auditors have the data, old and new, is likely sufficient. I’m sure GISS still has copies of the old data/software as well. No need for them to advertise that fact on their own webpage, however.
That said, I’m a firm believer that most of the “agenda” I (and many others) sometimes gripe about is most probably confirmation bias wrapped up with a bit of ego. Even the most ethical scientist feels threatened when his work is challenged and once he’s on the train, it’s hard to get off.
In other news, it looks as if the blogosphere has caught this one. It will be hard to ignore.
Mark
Has anyone attempted to go through the office of the President of the United States to compel NASA to release the data and software? If you can show that you have first attempted to go through lower channels without success, I wouldn’t think there would be anything wrong with going up the chain. Explain why it is so important and document what you have done to get the information in more conventional ways and basically petition the President to compel NASA to make the information public.
You aren’t asking for a reprimand or passing judgment on anyone, you are simply asking for data and software. I believe the President could get this done with the stoke of a pen. And if a letter doesn’t work, the White House spokesman, Tony Snow, seems to be pretty accessible to people including bloggers. Framing the question along the likes of “shouldn’t the data that we are being asked to modify our lives around and the programs used to process that data be open and accessible so that others may check and recheck it in order to make sure it is correct before we invest so much time, effort and money into the conclusions drawn from them?”
It just seems that having transparency of that sort would be a good idea going forward no matter WHO is in office in the future. It would be completely apolitical. It’s just data and software.
#103. Gavin also states that although the US is a large proportion of the data it is only 2% of world land area and so the problem has a minimal effect globally. But by having the bulk of the data, the US is the best sampled, and possibly the most reliable area to judge change over decadal scales. So the US trends carry more importance than a simple measure of land area would indicate. Change in the trend in 2% of the land area affects the confidence in the global trend more than 2%.
What if other networks in other parts of the world use the same process that Hansen uses? What if NASA shares that with them or collects their raw data, processes it, and gives it back? Does anyone know if anyone else might use NASA’s process?
Given the current political “climate”, it would be political suicide for the President’s office to even appear to give aid and comfort to anyone perceived as a part of the “denier” camp.
Hi all
Great work Steve. No doubt the beleivers are working out their response, after consulting their comrads.
Would be good to see what other countries data is like.
Regards
Peter Bickle
Jeez:
It wouldn’t have to be aimed at anyone at all. Simply order all climate data and software to be publicly available. That’s it. No need to name names, it would be a matter of policy.
The correction was due to the transition to a different dataset for the US. It has no effect on any other measurements anywhere in the world.
#69:
Gore’s highly publicised conspiracy theory twaddle of yesterday.
Did I miss something? Could you fill me in?
SteveM (#103),
Is there a plausible physical explanation for this, specifically one that does not include a term related to (unrecognized) UHI?
Assuming the USHCN/GISS data are now OK [an unrealistic assumption, but for now…], we have some explaining to do: The 1930s is now the decade with the highest number of peaks (not the same as the warmest decade, but still interesting), followed by the 1990s, with only one top-10 appearance from the 2000s (so far), the 1920s, and the 1950s. At present, the U.S. temperature anomaly record seems at odds with both AGW theory (that CO2 should cause substantial global warming) as well as with the non-U.S. temperature data.
On the other hand, Antarctica seems to have been cooling for decades. It makes me wonder about SteveM’s question: Perhaps temperature data coming from the not-very-urban penguin homeland and the not-very-urban U.S. have something in common?
“What if other networks in other parts of the world use the same process that Hansen uses? What if NASA shares that with them or collects their raw data, processes it, and gives it back? Does anyone know if anyone else might use NASA’s process?”
From what I understand not even NOAA uses NASA data. 2005 is ranked as warmest year by NASA, but not by some other records indicated by NOAA. My guess is that there is even less correspondence between NASA and other stations, although it’s always possible that there is better.
…………
More to the point, I feel that this discovery, while interesting, isn’t the breakthrough that everyone thinks it is. Errors likely exist in all datasets, whether in climate science or other fields. Errors also exist in understanding data. I think that some here are simply echoing a skeptical argument that has been at the heart of all science since its inception. Even Darwin spoke of bad data. And remember: corrections in errors can skew the record not just down, but also up, and there is absolutely no way to predict what future corrections will indicate: they could easily make the trend steeper.
I don’t deny that information audits should be completed. But given the fact that errors are detected anyway through audits that are completed anyway, what real difference would adding another auditor make? 1 or 2 errors and corrections that have no overall impact?
What’s interesting is that some here choose, on the one hand, to doubt NASA’s ability to compile and process data, yet on the other hand derive that very diagnosis from the fact that NASA accepted that an error existed. Question the validator, and then use it to help validate? Kudos.
Anyway, congrats on the finding.
Justin
“Cannot you understand that it’s a big deal that 1930s were officially the hottest decade in the US on record?”
In the US, perhaps. But what about GLOBALLY. As I said before, there is a world beyond your borders. Regional effects, while interesting, do not make for global trends.
“If there are problems with the US data adjustments do you really think that other parts of the world are even close to ours in terms of reliability of measurements?”
So people in Europe, Asia, India, Africa etc.etc (i.e. the rest of the world that isn’t covered by the USA) are incapable of making temperature measurements? Why shouldn’t they be MORE reliable? After all, one of (or just about the only) bugbears on this site is the poor quality of temperature measurements in the US, chiefly owing to bad positioning. Fair point. BUT that doesn’t alter the fact that the trend in global temperatures is upward and that the climate models point to AGW as the culprit. Retro-tested, the models explain the data very closely.
“I see many more True Believers in the AGW crowd than those of us who follow this site.”
I’m not a believer: I follow where the evidence and the science indicate. Until 18 months ago I was as skeptical as you. But there comes a point when the evidence becomes undeniable and if the science provides a model that works, the conclusion is ineluctable: AGW is a reality.
Great work, Steve.
By the way another pillar of AGW is under attack- the “insignificant” role of UHI in contaminating the Global Temperature record.
See http://www.informath.org/WCWF07a.pdf
Jones may finally get his come-uppance!
Bill,
You show the typical response of a true believer.
Claim: The US data is better quality than many other parts of the world.
Response: What? You don’t believe that anyone else in the world is capable of taking data?
If you don’t see the disconnect between claim and response, ask nicely and I will try to point it out.
You state that it doesn’t matter that the data has problems, because the data matches the models.
Of course it does. The models have been carefully calibrated to match the data.
Regardless, being able to match bad data is not an attribute I would typically brag on.
You claim that the evidence convinced you? What evidence was that?
Steven McIntyre-
Winner of the “Emporers New Clothes Award” for scientific scrutiny. Second time.
Realclimate has a response. I urge everyone to put away the party hats and be rational about this.
1934 and All That
Justin
121: We know.
127: RC has a point, but they actually admitted that Steve Mc is right. Do you think they will now embrace the idea of auditing? And who knows how much “error” exists for the rest of the world’s “Global Average Temperature,” whatever the heck that is.
The fundamental point to take away from this is:
If you’d open the flipping source to peer review, this would have been fixed 6+ years ago.
Gavin’s latest missif has two standard GISS graphs – but they use different scales on the y-axis. I clumsily adjusted the scales and what becomes apparent is that the Global temperatures series for the 30s is where the US diverges from the ROW and that this divergence contributes significantly to the apparent trend. Yet much of the world during this period was dramatically unstable. How can these records be reviewed and checked?
[off-topic]
Bernie,
Some one has checked some of the records and has found problems:
http://powerandcontrol.blogspot.com/2007/08/problems-in-asia.html
#120 Justin,
There is always the possibility that the next correction will swamp the “heating” data. Or a number of “insignificant” changes will all add up the “wrong” way.
You prevent propagation of errors by correcting them as soon as possible. In the review stage is best. However, immediately after publication of methods, data, and conclusions (which ought to happen simultaneously) would be good. Just as in industry. The farther down the chain the errors propagate the more costly they are to fix.
No scientific conclusion reached on the basis secrets (keeping the data and methods hidden) can be considered reliable.
Peer review is just not up to the task of doing what 10,000 interested and 50 qualified amateurs can do.
IMO we are actually entering a golden age of science. The beginning of a transformation of how science will be done.
I may be retired. I have not quit. [snip]
#133
That is a good reference. Doug Keenan has a powerful way of presenting an argument. He is also gracious to others, except when they are not straightforward. I can just imagine his calls to Jones and Wang. The link you provided leads to only a foreshortened 4 page PDF copy of his article. I am looking for the complete version now.
#133
M. Simon (A first name would make life easier or at least friendlier)
I made a mistake it is a four pager – but ends in a kind of abrupt way. More to the point, he raises the same point that I noted elsewhere on the suposed continuity of records for large areas of East Asia. In the 30s and 40s it was war with the Japanese and the among the warlords and in the 60s it was Mao’s revolutionary guard. The whole China record for these periods needs to be examined very very carefully or discarded. The more recent record is likely subject to pretty extreme UHI, micro-site and Keenan’s favorite – location shifts as China experiences tremendous urban growth.
I would certainlylike to see the record sans the Chinese data.
bernie,
My friends call me Simon. The M. is to honor my dad who signed that way.
Let me repost something here that I just put up that goes to the heart of the matter:
http://powerandcontrol.blogspot.com/2007/08/default-interpretation.html
I was reading the comments at Coyote Blog since I just finished a bit about a climate article they had put up and I came across this little gem by dearieme posted Aug 9, 2007 12:15:51 PM:
“Government scientists ..refuse to publicly release their temperature adjustment algorithms or software”: the default interpretation of that is that they are crooks.
It seems like a lot of people are coming to that conclusion.
===
It looks like it has gone beyond simple mistakes and errors of judgment.
BTW the 1221 US stations – the quality stations – are 1/2 the global network. Taking out the Chinese and Russian data will leave big gaps in the coverage.
Simon:
The number of US stations impacts only the precison of the US data. My understanding is that the Global figures are based on 5 degree long. x 5 degree lat. blocks for the entire world. Poor or non-existent records for a particular area means a huge amount of interpolation and estimation or simply bad numbers for numerous of estimated 1600 odd land blocks. (30% x 72 x 72) North America represent some 16% of these and the US 6 %. Someone who understands the actual specifics can provide more of the details.
bernie,
I understand your point.
However, it is acknowledged that the USA has the “best” system in the world. We are discovering that the USA network as a whole is at best “fair” in terms of quality. We know there are problems with Russia and China. How do you suppose things are in Africa? South America? Where there are far fewer “quality” stations? None of which have yet been audited, to my knowledge.
The only way out is a release of all data and methods, plus a proper survey of all stations used in the models.
Isn’t 1954 tied for 10th?
There was some serious work being done earlier examining records in CHina. With Keenan’s article is it worthwhile revisiting that to see if the temperature record for the 30s is as robust as Gavin et al would have us believe?
It is my understanding that the US is 6% of the world land area.
United States — Area (Land): 9,161,923 SQ KM
World — Area (Land): 148.94 Million SQ KM
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/
The US is about 1.8% of the world surface area.
United States — Area (Land): 9,161,923 SQ KM
Earth — Surface Area: 510,065,600 km2
According to http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earth
#143
One issue is the nature and scope of the corrections. These are, of course, limited to the US which is as you say a small % of the surface and land mass. However, this issue puts into question how records are kept and checked in both the US and ROW. Second, the fact that the 30s were brought into the spotlight as a warm decade raises additiona questions as to the integrity of the record for the ROW during that decade – a period of widespread turmoil. While it is certainly possible that the warmth of the 30s was purely a North American phenomenon, it would be unwise to assume that was the case without closer scrutiny of the temperature records. Given the paucity of well kept records outside of North America, Europe and selected other countries, there has to be a significant amount of “adjustments” and interpolations.
The finding of the GISS errors has some secondary effects beyond merely the correction of the US records from 2000.
Re #144
It should be noted that what we are seeing is not continuous records from one reporting station but the splicing of different records to make what appears to be a continuous record. Instrumentation differs, different units (Kelvin vs Celsius), locations differ. They look at the data and make guesses as to how to correct the data, even where they have no documentation as to what might have happened to the site. A general description of the changes that are made and reference to papers generally describing the process are provided. If Hansen can’t catch a data error (spliced data from two different sources not a Y2K error) that’s been there for six years in the US data, how can anyone have confidence in anything he says? I thought his QA was supposed to catch those errors?
Barry:
Your point about the quality of the data is well taken.
I just analyzed the population data for 37 GISS Brazilian station (see Brazil thread). To put it mildly, the population numbers used to designate stations as rural, suburban and urban are hopelessly out of date. Yet it would take but an intern to keep these updated. Hansen should probably spend a bit more time checking the quality of his data rather than politiking.
Recently, I also looked at the “Contiguous 48 U.S. Surface Air Temperature Anomaly (C) chart, and have a few quick questions:
1. How accurate is a chart listing the 48 Contiguous states temp, when we didn’t get 48 states till 1912?, True, some of the states were long time territories before statehood, but when the chart starts in 1880, when we had 38 states, is that representitive of the whole U.S? In other words did expanding land usage (depletion of forests) cause some problems?
2. When did we start including Alaska and Hawaii (or do we) in this listing? If we don’t, how are those temp stations included in the world averages?
3. In 1934 we had an extreme drought (the “dust bowl”). If 1998 was only off by .02 degrees (a statistical dead heat), why no corresponding “disaster”. Is it possible that the socio-economic world conditions (after the depression, etc) may have led to some problems (burning more wood because of costs, etc?)
Re #137:
BTW the 1221 US stations – the quality stations – are 1/2 the global network. Taking out the Chinese and Russian data will leave big gaps in the coverage.
Is this right? That 1/2 of the global network is being used to monitor 2% of the total land area, and STILL only has a small effect on the global averages?
Somebody please try someting – remove ALL of the US records, and see what that does to the global averages by year. See if it’s really us or not…
A new, new, leaderboard has arisen as a result of the change of USHCN input file
at GISS.
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/
mentions the change of the file, and
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/Fig.D.txt
has the new GISS estimates of US contiguous 48 temperature “anomalies” by year.
It looks like 1934 and 1998 are now tied, and 1921, and 2006 have swapped places.
Re #150
New top ten US
Year Temp
1934 1.24 (tie)
1998 1.24 (tie)
2006 1.15
1921 1.13
1931 1.08
1999 0.94
1953 0.9
1990 0.88
1938 0.85
1939 0.84
Can I say it – I have to say it (if no one else will) – “It looks like ‘the fix’ is finally in”.
One caveat regarding the statement at GISS:
“We switched to the current version of USHCN data set which includes data through
2005.”
They switched to the edition at the CDIAC server. There is an edition at the NCDC
server which includes 2006 data. Except that it does not include the 2006 data,
the edition at the CDIAC server is a duplicate of the edition at the NCDC server.
I use the word edition, instead of the word version, in order to avoid confusion
with the NCDC terminology which regards the various editions of USHCN as all
being version 1, and the forthcoming edition as being version 2.
This new leaderboard is really something else. I’m going to post on this: but if the SHAP version was what they used for the past decade, it’s a little – shall we say – “convenient” to decide in Sept 2007 that they are going to switch to the FILNET version (without announcing it on their website) and then, surprise, surprise, 1998 is now tied for the warmest year. This is going to send shivers up the spine of any readers familiar with accounting principles.
It would appear that after telling the world over at RC that the relative positions of 1934 and 1998 didn’t mean anything, that it matters a lot to someone at NASA. Some considerable effort went into this achievement.
I’m a little confused Steve. The details at the GISS link you provide do NOT match your leaderboard. They still show 1998 as hotter than 1934 and the numbers dont match. Has Hansen pulled a “swifty”?
#158. The leaderboard changed again in September. If you track through the category – Surface Record: Hansen in September, you’ll see that they changed their originating data set to a different version in September and – surprise, surprise – 1934 was no longer at the top of the leaderboard. (BTW they didn’t announce the change in methodology at the time so it was rather intriguing trying to keep up with GISS machinations.)
I know I am not the smartest guy on here but can anyone answer this for me? The reranked data from 2000-2006 here, and now 1998 is less hot then 1934? Can someone explain to me how data not touched changed?
Very interesting points in your blog it sure cleared many questions that i may have had. I loved it because i did learn a lot from it because of it.
Dear Sirs,
I have been following the matter of the US temp. data for some time. It came up in a book review I did for Quaternary Science Reviews (I stated that the 1930’s was probably the hottest decade of the 20th Cent., circum Dust-Bowl). How OFFICIAL is this view now (can you reiterate this point in email)? It’s not a question of belief, it’s just that I don’t think this is officially admitted by NASA yet (in Euro. and Japan, with LESS relative UHI differential through time, the 1930’s also seems to be hotter than the 1990’s).
Bruce M. Albert, Ph.D., Leverhulme post-doc PDRA
while only 3 of the top 10 are from the last 10 years (1998, 2006, 1999)
Very generous of you to include 1998 and 1999 in the last 10 years. 2000-2009 would be the last 10 years, and only 1 year (2006) falls in that category.
never mind my last post..I didn’t look at the original date for your post
Use NOAA data they are more accurate and the official temp keepers
All these temperature measurements are sort of red herrings, if for no other reason than that they are subject to human errors. Look for changes in ecologies that indicate warming (or cooling – but there are none of those) temperatures. Migration patterns of flora and fauna. (Flora move up mountains until they get to the top and die, or they move north) Changes in time of migration. Changes in sex ratios of some amphibians. Continuously shrinking ice sheets and glaciers. Earlier melt times and later freeze times of large bodies of water and rivers. Average these over decades.
And before some ignoramus points to more ice and snow in the antarctic, let me say that that is evidence of global warming, not cooling. This is also true of glaciers that grow in areas that, despite general warming, still seldom get above freezing. Find a climate expert to explain it to you. It has to do with the fact that a warmer antarctic or mountains are still well below freezing almost the the entire year, and the earth is still not warm enough for it to rain there.
Nature will not be fooled.
All these temperature measurements are sort of red herrings, if for no other reason than that they are subject to human errors. Look for changes in ecologies that indicate warming
Why would measurements of ecology be less prone to error than simple measurement of temperature? I would suggest that determining the boundary point of a species is a terrible guide, prone to all sorts of wishful thinking.
Mangrove swamps are a warm water phenomenon. They are declining world-wide. Are we to take this as evidence that the water is getting colder?
No doubt we can find some area where warm temperature species are expanding. Especially if we don’t look too hard for the spots where the opposite is true.
The complete scientific illiteracy here is scary. Did not a single person here bother to look at the actual data?? Did no one notice the column on the right? Surely given your right wing tendencies, you would have looked at the right hand column. The one that shows 5 year averages? And while the 30’s peaked at .58, EVERY single 5 year period after 1998 was over .6 with one exception, 2009.
But wait… It gets worse. I actually looked at the individual years from the link that you gave.
years yrly mean 5 year mean
1998 1.3040 0.6268
2006 1.2890 0.7784
1934 1.2210 0.4088
1921 1.1000 0.1202
1999 1.0650 0.8234
It is like 911 “truthers” or creationists. All of the referenced facts are lies. You just make things up. Note above that years 3&4 are not so special when you examine 5 year mean.
Of course, given your scientific illiteracy, and willful blindness, one should not expect you to see the obvious. As to mangrove swamps shrinking. What is your point? With rising waters and more severe weather, what did you expect? But they are not moving south to get away from the cooling are they. ON the other hand, almost every other species on the planet that can relocate, including plants is either moving north or up. Perhaps you can find one that is not.
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