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	<title>Comments on: Replication Policy Re-Posted</title>
	<atom:link href="http://climateaudit.org/2007/08/21/replication-policy-re-posted/feed/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>http://climateaudit.org/2007/08/21/replication-policy-re-posted/</link>
	<description>by Steve McIntyre</description>
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		<title>By: cttaxed.com &#187; Blog Archive &#187; Much of Global Warming Science is not being PEER REVIEWED</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2007/08/21/replication-policy-re-posted/#comment-100807</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[cttaxed.com &#187; Blog Archive &#187; Much of Global Warming Science is not being PEER REVIEWED]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 28 Aug 2007 22:27:21 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=1952#comment-100807</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[[...] the NASA scientist (Hansen) who crunches the temperature data will not publish his software code. Making it impossible to verify the conclusions and results of temperature data. [...]]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] the NASA scientist (Hansen) who crunches the temperature data will not publish his software code. Making it impossible to verify the conclusions and results of temperature data. [...]</p>
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		<title>By: per</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2007/08/21/replication-policy-re-posted/#comment-100806</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[per]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 26 Aug 2007 20:51:07 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=1952#comment-100806</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Deech 56 August 22nd, 2007 at 6:16 pm said:
&lt;blockquote&gt;My point is that there is an expectation that there is enough information in a published paper so that someone who was trained in that field can replicate the data.&lt;/blockquote&gt;

I think this is a problem. There is an increasing expectation that journals do not provide the necessary information for replication. Controls, the experiments done; mere detail that a scientist in the field could replicate.  I remember Nature showing the creation of knock-out mice with a single sentence; this is a procedure that takes ~2-3 years! Wholly inadequate.

However, it is when something goes wrong that a thorough description of methods pay off. You then have a hope of working out what went wrong, with resorting to quasi-litigation just to find the barest details.

It is also a lot easier if the experiments are fairly simple, with a fairly direct route from the data (which may be shown) through to analysis. However, once you start to get complex analysis (e.g. ratios, mathematical transformations) , the number of ways of perverting a data set becomes large. I am familiar with a whole host of abominations by way of data analysis, all under the murky cover of inadequately described data and methods.

per]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Deech 56 August 22nd, 2007 at 6:16 pm said:</p>
<blockquote><p>My point is that there is an expectation that there is enough information in a published paper so that someone who was trained in that field can replicate the data.</p></blockquote>
<p>I think this is a problem. There is an increasing expectation that journals do not provide the necessary information for replication. Controls, the experiments done; mere detail that a scientist in the field could replicate.  I remember Nature showing the creation of knock-out mice with a single sentence; this is a procedure that takes ~2-3 years! Wholly inadequate.</p>
<p>However, it is when something goes wrong that a thorough description of methods pay off. You then have a hope of working out what went wrong, with resorting to quasi-litigation just to find the barest details.</p>
<p>It is also a lot easier if the experiments are fairly simple, with a fairly direct route from the data (which may be shown) through to analysis. However, once you start to get complex analysis (e.g. ratios, mathematical transformations) , the number of ways of perverting a data set becomes large. I am familiar with a whole host of abominations by way of data analysis, all under the murky cover of inadequately described data and methods.</p>
<p>per</p>
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		<title>By: Arthur Edelstein</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2007/08/21/replication-policy-re-posted/#comment-100805</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Arthur Edelstein]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 26 Aug 2007 11:50:48 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=1952#comment-100805</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Re #213, I have now more or less tracked down Lugina et al&#039;s three main references for station data:

World Weather Records
&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/oldpubs/#WWR&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/oldpubs/#WWR&lt;/a&gt;

Monthly Climatic Data for the World
&lt;a href=&quot;http://www7.ncdc.noaa.gov/IPS/MCDWPubs?action=getpublication&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;http://www7.ncdc.noaa.gov/IPS/MCDWPubs?action=getpublication&lt;/a&gt;

Meteorological Data for Individual Years over the Northern Hemisphere Excluding the USSR
(an approximate title)
&lt;a href=&quot;http://meteo.ru/english/data_b/sp.php?id_article=170&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;http://meteo.ru/english/data_b/sp.php?id_article=170&lt;/a&gt;

Unfortunately the data for some of these is not actually online. Of course they have only 384 stations in their pool, so it is not clear which ones were selected.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Re #213, I have now more or less tracked down Lugina et al&#8217;s three main references for station data:</p>
<p>World Weather Records<br />
<a href="http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/oldpubs/#WWR" rel="nofollow">http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/oldpubs/#WWR</a></p>
<p>Monthly Climatic Data for the World<br />
<a href="http://www7.ncdc.noaa.gov/IPS/MCDWPubs?action=getpublication" rel="nofollow">http://www7.ncdc.noaa.gov/IPS/MCDWPubs?action=getpublication</a></p>
<p>Meteorological Data for Individual Years over the Northern Hemisphere Excluding the USSR<br />
(an approximate title)<br />
<a href="http://meteo.ru/english/data_b/sp.php?id_article=170" rel="nofollow">http://meteo.ru/english/data_b/sp.php?id_article=170</a></p>
<p>Unfortunately the data for some of these is not actually online. Of course they have only 384 stations in their pool, so it is not clear which ones were selected.</p>
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		<title>By: M. Simon</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2007/08/21/replication-policy-re-posted/#comment-100804</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[M. Simon]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 25 Aug 2007 22:38:16 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=1952#comment-100804</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[gb August 25th, 2007 at 5:23 am ,

I think the open audit as practiced here is more valuable.

I admit it is messier and more time consuming. However, sometimes value has its price.

Relative to climate science we are now in a period of &quot;buyers remorse&quot; for failure to do our audits earlier. However, since the technology wasn&#039;t available earlier I think the audit community can be forgiven. However, hanging on to old styles is a mark against it.

In addition earlier open review will help good thinking propagate faster. No need to wait for the official review.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>gb August 25th, 2007 at 5:23 am ,</p>
<p>I think the open audit as practiced here is more valuable.</p>
<p>I admit it is messier and more time consuming. However, sometimes value has its price.</p>
<p>Relative to climate science we are now in a period of &#8220;buyers remorse&#8221; for failure to do our audits earlier. However, since the technology wasn&#8217;t available earlier I think the audit community can be forgiven. However, hanging on to old styles is a mark against it.</p>
<p>In addition earlier open review will help good thinking propagate faster. No need to wait for the official review.</p>
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		<title>By: John F. Pittman</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2007/08/21/replication-policy-re-posted/#comment-100803</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[John F. Pittman]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 25 Aug 2007 12:46:52 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=1952#comment-100803</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Simon August 24th, 2007 at 8:27 am

If I said that the torque on the bolts holding an anhydrous ammonia line together was &quot;to be reasonably&quot; tightened, and it failed, then I could be sued and jailed for criminal negligence. Not to mention that I would have to specify the gasket, and materials of construction, wetted and non-wetted surfaces.

gb August 25th, 2007 at 5:23 am If these journals were

&lt;blockquote&gt;serious scientific journals&lt;/blockquote&gt; how could they allow such handwaving; when the product of a scientific enquiry is supposed to be repeatable and verifiable.

Oh and by the way,

&lt;blockquote&gt;I dont believe in the value of an audit but (by) just some person&lt;/blockquote&gt;. One of the nicest things about an audit is that it is auditable. Audits have been thrown out when the auditors did not do a proper audit trail in their work. So, if you think an auditor may not have value in their audit, you need only audit the audit. If they can&#039;t produce the materials for you to properly audit their audit, you should discount any claims made. You can also provide proof that the auditers were wrong and have them change the product or comments. I have done this several times.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Simon August 24th, 2007 at 8:27 am</p>
<p>If I said that the torque on the bolts holding an anhydrous ammonia line together was &#8220;to be reasonably&#8221; tightened, and it failed, then I could be sued and jailed for criminal negligence. Not to mention that I would have to specify the gasket, and materials of construction, wetted and non-wetted surfaces.</p>
<p>gb August 25th, 2007 at 5:23 am If these journals were</p>
<blockquote><p>serious scientific journals</p></blockquote>
<p> how could they allow such handwaving; when the product of a scientific enquiry is supposed to be repeatable and verifiable.</p>
<p>Oh and by the way,</p>
<blockquote><p>I dont believe in the value of an audit but (by) just some person</p></blockquote>
<p>. One of the nicest things about an audit is that it is auditable. Audits have been thrown out when the auditors did not do a proper audit trail in their work. So, if you think an auditor may not have value in their audit, you need only audit the audit. If they can&#8217;t produce the materials for you to properly audit their audit, you should discount any claims made. You can also provide proof that the auditers were wrong and have them change the product or comments. I have done this several times.</p>
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		<title>By: gb</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2007/08/21/replication-policy-re-posted/#comment-100802</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[gb]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 25 Aug 2007 11:23:13 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=1952#comment-100802</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Re # 176: &quot;Sam I think this is more than once this scientist versus Engineer thing has come up. The latter being schooled in having their cavities probed by the crooked fingered, ragged nailed inspector, and the former perhaps being more accustomed to the gentle persuasions of peer review.&quot;

Steven Mosher, it is clear that you never have submitted an article to a serious scientific journal. Editors from the more high quality journals reject sometimes 50% of the articles they receive, or even more. My experience is that in general at least one of the reviewers is (highly) critical and it costs me a significant amount of time to satisfy the reviewer(s).In general the quality of my articles has improved significantly because of the comments of the reviewers. But is also clear that the best reviews are written by good scientist with a lot of knowledge about the topic, so therefore I don&#039;t believe in the value of an audit but just some person.

Many scientist agree that the review process is not ideal. But they also know there is no good alternative. It doesn&#039;t prevent bad science but is prevents many bad publications.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Re # 176: &#8220;Sam I think this is more than once this scientist versus Engineer thing has come up. The latter being schooled in having their cavities probed by the crooked fingered, ragged nailed inspector, and the former perhaps being more accustomed to the gentle persuasions of peer review.&#8221;</p>
<p>Steven Mosher, it is clear that you never have submitted an article to a serious scientific journal. Editors from the more high quality journals reject sometimes 50% of the articles they receive, or even more. My experience is that in general at least one of the reviewers is (highly) critical and it costs me a significant amount of time to satisfy the reviewer(s).In general the quality of my articles has improved significantly because of the comments of the reviewers. But is also clear that the best reviews are written by good scientist with a lot of knowledge about the topic, so therefore I don&#8217;t believe in the value of an audit but just some person.</p>
<p>Many scientist agree that the review process is not ideal. But they also know there is no good alternative. It doesn&#8217;t prevent bad science but is prevents many bad publications.</p>
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		<title>By: Paul Penrose</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2007/08/21/replication-policy-re-posted/#comment-100801</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Paul Penrose]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 24 Aug 2007 17:43:54 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=1952#comment-100801</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[It&#039;s clear to me from the way these guys (Hansen, Gavin, Mann, etc.) are acting that they have invested a huge chunk of their ego into their work. In effect, their work has now become a part of them, and as such they can&#039;t bear the thought of it being inspected. What if something was found to be wrong with the work? To them this would amount to a personal attack on their very identity, and so they can&#039;t allow it.

I&#039;ve seen this in the software industry where people protect &quot;thier&quot; code as if it were an arm or a leg. When these people are laid-off their first concern is about what will happen to &quot;their&quot; code; they want to take it with them and they can&#039;t so it&#039;s very traumatic.

Good scientists and engineers have learned to keep their work seperate from their egos. You can easily tell who these people are: they &lt;em&gt;ask&lt;/em&gt; others to inspect their work. Their focus is on getting the work as correct as possible, and generally their work is of a higher quality as a result.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>It&#8217;s clear to me from the way these guys (Hansen, Gavin, Mann, etc.) are acting that they have invested a huge chunk of their ego into their work. In effect, their work has now become a part of them, and as such they can&#8217;t bear the thought of it being inspected. What if something was found to be wrong with the work? To them this would amount to a personal attack on their very identity, and so they can&#8217;t allow it.</p>
<p>I&#8217;ve seen this in the software industry where people protect &#8220;thier&#8221; code as if it were an arm or a leg. When these people are laid-off their first concern is about what will happen to &#8220;their&#8221; code; they want to take it with them and they can&#8217;t so it&#8217;s very traumatic.</p>
<p>Good scientists and engineers have learned to keep their work seperate from their egos. You can easily tell who these people are: they <em>ask</em> others to inspect their work. Their focus is on getting the work as correct as possible, and generally their work is of a higher quality as a result.</p>
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		<title>By: M. Simon</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2007/08/21/replication-policy-re-posted/#comment-100800</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[M. Simon]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 24 Aug 2007 14:27:14 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=1952#comment-100800</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[BTW Deech,

When you are testing a drug in an animal what is the protocol?

x mg/Kg? or a reasonable amount per Kg?

What would the FDA say if you told them that a reasonable amount per Kg had x effect? Approved for human use? Or suppose in an animal test you told the FDA that you injected a reasonable amount of drug y at some unspecified consistent interval and the results wer a not inconsiderable reduction of an induced tumor. You going to pass that to the FDA reviewer?

Those guys want specifications that can easily be replicated. They want numbaz. Lots and lots of numbaz.

I know that if I give a bolt tightening spec of a &quot;reasonable torque&quot; the FAA would laugh me out of the room. My design review peers would have drilled me a new one.

Or suppose I describe a breaker as tripping at an excessive  current but holding at reasonable current? You gonna fly on an aircraft built to such specs? Or suppose I said the minimum air speed for take off was reasonably fast. The FAA going to buy that? Or suppose I say that the captain of the aircraft must abort a take off if he hasn&#039;t reached a reasonable speed while there was still considerable runway left for braking? Want to fly on that one?

What makes &quot;climate science&quot; different?]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>BTW Deech,</p>
<p>When you are testing a drug in an animal what is the protocol?</p>
<p>x mg/Kg? or a reasonable amount per Kg?</p>
<p>What would the FDA say if you told them that a reasonable amount per Kg had x effect? Approved for human use? Or suppose in an animal test you told the FDA that you injected a reasonable amount of drug y at some unspecified consistent interval and the results wer a not inconsiderable reduction of an induced tumor. You going to pass that to the FDA reviewer?</p>
<p>Those guys want specifications that can easily be replicated. They want numbaz. Lots and lots of numbaz.</p>
<p>I know that if I give a bolt tightening spec of a &#8220;reasonable torque&#8221; the FAA would laugh me out of the room. My design review peers would have drilled me a new one.</p>
<p>Or suppose I describe a breaker as tripping at an excessive  current but holding at reasonable current? You gonna fly on an aircraft built to such specs? Or suppose I said the minimum air speed for take off was reasonably fast. The FAA going to buy that? Or suppose I say that the captain of the aircraft must abort a take off if he hasn&#8217;t reached a reasonable speed while there was still considerable runway left for braking? Want to fly on that one?</p>
<p>What makes &#8220;climate science&#8221; different?</p>
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		<title>By: M. Simon</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2007/08/21/replication-policy-re-posted/#comment-100799</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[M. Simon]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 24 Aug 2007 10:26:19 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=1952#comment-100799</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Deech56 August 24th, 2007 at 4:01 am,

&lt;blockquote&gt;RE M. Simon #262: When your Dr. prescribes medicine does he say you should take a reasonable amount for a reasonable length of time? Or does he say two pills four times a day for two weeks? Would you want your Dr. prescribing according to climate science methodology? Ooh - not so good analogy. Even a 10-day bid course is an approximation at best. The dose of medicine is not adjusted for body mass and the pharmacokinetics of a drug in me is not the same it is in you. And despite large clinical trials, the safety of any given drug can vary from person to person. I suppose to apply the standards that are demanded for climate science the drug course in any person would be carefully calculated - maybe after a quick PK study.&lt;/blockquote&gt;

Excellent! you made my point even better than I did.

Pay your taxes without coercion? I&#039;ll believe that when you tell me you sent them 30% more than they asked for.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Deech56 August 24th, 2007 at 4:01 am,</p>
<blockquote><p>RE M. Simon #262: When your Dr. prescribes medicine does he say you should take a reasonable amount for a reasonable length of time? Or does he say two pills four times a day for two weeks? Would you want your Dr. prescribing according to climate science methodology? Ooh &#8211; not so good analogy. Even a 10-day bid course is an approximation at best. The dose of medicine is not adjusted for body mass and the pharmacokinetics of a drug in me is not the same it is in you. And despite large clinical trials, the safety of any given drug can vary from person to person. I suppose to apply the standards that are demanded for climate science the drug course in any person would be carefully calculated &#8211; maybe after a quick PK study.</p></blockquote>
<p>Excellent! you made my point even better than I did.</p>
<p>Pay your taxes without coercion? I&#8217;ll believe that when you tell me you sent them 30% more than they asked for.</p>
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		<title>By: Deech56</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2007/08/21/replication-policy-re-posted/#comment-100798</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Deech56]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 24 Aug 2007 10:01:25 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=1952#comment-100798</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[RE M. Simon #262: &quot;When your Dr. prescribes medicine does he say you should take a reasonable amount for a reasonable length of time? Or does he say two pills four times a day for two weeks? Would you want your Dr. prescribing according to climate science methodology?&quot; Ooh - not so good analogy. Even a 10-day bid course is an approximation at best. The dose of medicine is not adjusted for body mass and the pharmacokinetics of a drug in me is not the same it is in you. And despite large clinical trials, the safety of any given drug can vary from person to person. I suppose to apply the standards that are demanded for climate science the drug course in any person would be carefully calculated - maybe after a quick PK study.

Maybe it&#039;s just my POV coming from the world of biology which has greater complexity and messy data due to so many biological and biochemical interactions and individual variation. Despite this, we have learned a lot about what happens in biological systems and we base decisions on what we do know.

And I pay my taxes cheerfully, without coercion. After all, the taxpayers paid for my graduate education, which was at a land-grant state university (getting an excellent return on their investment, BTW), and it&#039;s the least I can do.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>RE M. Simon #262: &#8220;When your Dr. prescribes medicine does he say you should take a reasonable amount for a reasonable length of time? Or does he say two pills four times a day for two weeks? Would you want your Dr. prescribing according to climate science methodology?&#8221; Ooh &#8211; not so good analogy. Even a 10-day bid course is an approximation at best. The dose of medicine is not adjusted for body mass and the pharmacokinetics of a drug in me is not the same it is in you. And despite large clinical trials, the safety of any given drug can vary from person to person. I suppose to apply the standards that are demanded for climate science the drug course in any person would be carefully calculated &#8211; maybe after a quick PK study.</p>
<p>Maybe it&#8217;s just my POV coming from the world of biology which has greater complexity and messy data due to so many biological and biochemical interactions and individual variation. Despite this, we have learned a lot about what happens in biological systems and we base decisions on what we do know.</p>
<p>And I pay my taxes cheerfully, without coercion. After all, the taxpayers paid for my graduate education, which was at a land-grant state university (getting an excellent return on their investment, BTW), and it&#8217;s the least I can do.</p>
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