Simon, I’m not following you friend. Can you elaborate?

Steve is only interested in the audit.

However, here is a counter factual.

Why have there been no higher peaks since 1998?

My question would be, why is it so difficult to be able to verify the process they went through to reach their conclusions?

(I keep forgetting how confusing everything is until I go back to http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/gcag/gcagmerged.html and remember what I’ve forgotten. Shudder.)

No, certainly not, just making the destinction. There are implicit logical inferences here, so I think it’s a very useful exercise to make this explicit, because there are a lot of skeptics on this blog that are making an incorrect logical leap. The logical steps are:

Hansen statistical procedure -> conclusion: 1998 was warmest year -> AGW is supported

Steve M is clearly criticising the Hansen statistical procedure, and thus concluding or implying that the conclusion that 1998 was the warmest year is incorrect. This is resulting in a lot of attention (well deserved). A lot of this attention, though not all, is because it implies that the third part is incorrect.

I’m just noticing that no one on this blog, including Steve, seems very interested in validating whether the conclusion that 1998 was the warmest year or not is actually valid, regardless of deficiencies in Hansen’s methodology. Steve probably wouldn’t get nearly as much attention if he announced:

Hansen’s statistical procedure was flawed, but his conclusion that 1998 was the warmest year is still correct.

I think the data shows that Hansen’s explicit conclusion is correct! 1998 was the warmest year. We have records from various continents which show that the 1930s warming was not global. Therefore, it was globally cooler than 1998, since we know from satellite data that 1998 was globally warm. We would be intellectually dishonest and no better than Mann and Hansen if we glossed over this fact, just because it’s not the answer some want. We have to follow the evidence where ever it leads.

And for you partisan anti-AGWers out there, it’s a stupid strategy. You are vulnerable to Hansen realizing the same thing, and switching the argument to use what I just said. Then you would lose, since the only argument you have developed is that Hansen’s statistical procedure is flawed.

He only wants to verify the process they went through to reach their conclusions, not validate/invalidate their conclusions.

Are you implying that there is something wrong with this? I can’t tell.

Sorry, I was actually talking to MarkW. Yes, the satellite record picks up 1998′s El Nino a lot more than the surface record. I’d imagine this would be because the satellite tracks the ocean warmth better. I don’t see how solar could be involved as the solar cycle maximum was around 2002–and pretty much the same as 1991.

Talking about measuring something and if it tells us anything in the first place is different. That’s what all the measurements are. Samples. Averages. Just stick to mainstream published papers, and keep stuff you’ll read at the sidebared blogs and other resources over there where they’re for that, if it’s not about auditing. I’m sure wikipedia or giss or rc etc would be very helpful for those interested in those subjects. Or a blog about thermodynamics.

Talking about Where’s Waldo and figuring out if what is being said is doing what it’s said to be doing is interesting. Discussions about IR absorbtion and stuff like that are not interesting.

Hello Pete,

Glad to see you’ve made it over.

regards,

The only selection criterion I find interesting at this point is based on the condition that a location (identified by the 5 digit WMO number) have observations for both the 30s and the 90s. I want to make use of the monthly nature of the data. I am still thinking about the game plan (as I do not like running multiple specs).

I have a gut reaction against using annual averages (no, I am not going to discuss the reasons here). I don’t like monthly averages much either as a calendar month is an arbitrary boundary. Ideally, I would like to work with seasons defined by the angle of the sun etc.

Dunno. I have to think more.

Sinan