Comments on: The Bias Method's Perfect Siberian Storm

By: captdallas2

captdallas2 — Sat, 15 Sep 2007 22:41:36 +0000

Here is one site that is interesting, but not in Siberia, Everglades Florida.

1) the gisstemp shows a warming trend.
2) the co2science site shows a cooling trend (same data set?)
3) the monthly download from giss indicated bad months.
4) the daily data from ghcn has bad days every where, so bad I would not attempt to run a monthlies from that data.

By: captdallas2

captdallas2 — Thu, 13 Sep 2007 14:51:47 +0000

Okay, the daily averages I calculated are correct. They just don’t match the GISS averages due to 1) an obvious 2 degree scribal error in Aug series 2 data, 2)Major inconsistancy in the series 0 data set due to apparent instrumentation error and 3)an unknown positive winter temperature bias in series 1 and 2.

Other than that the record is just fine.

Leba series JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
series 0 1989 1.4 4.1 8.7 10.4 12.3 16.5 20.3 17.9 14.8 9.4 2.8 1
series 1 1989 3.4 4.3 5.4 7.5 11.1 14.1 16.9 16.4 14.4 10.9 4.2 2
series 2 1989 3.4 4.3 5.4 7.5 11.1 14.1 16.9 14.4 14.4 10.9 4.2 2
combined 1989 2.5 4 6.3 8.2 11.3 14.7 17.8 16 14.3 10.2 3.5 1.4
from daily 2.9 4.2 5.5 7.5 10.7 13.8 16.4 16.3 14.3 10.6 4.1 1.7
0,1,2 mean 2.7 4.2 6.5 8.5 11.5 14.9 18.0 16.2 14.5 10.4 3.7 1.7

By: captdallas2

captdallas2 — Wed, 12 Sep 2007 17:22:23 +0000

84 I may have to leave the dailies to the pros, that is a ton of data! I did find the 1989 daily but it doesn’t match the any of the Leba sets from GISS, close but not quite. Then I had to calculate Tmean from the Tmax and Tmin so it was a waste of time.

Sorry I got on the digital track, I still haven’t found out what if any instrumentation changes were made in 1987.

By: John Goetz

John Goetz — Wed, 12 Sep 2007 15:32:58 +0000

#85 M. Simon

Note that what prompted the quote “Excuse me if I misunderstood your post, but some sort of offset method is required to combine independent records (not scribal variations) at a single station.” was an odd pattern I observed in the differences between two scribal records for Bratsk from 1951 to 1965. I really don’t think the Russians at this particular station were using a digital thermometer at that time.

By: M. Simon

M. Simon — Wed, 12 Sep 2007 15:17:30 +0000

That should be:

even mW differences in resistor dissipation

By: M. Simon

M. Simon — Wed, 12 Sep 2007 15:16:21 +0000

Demesure September 11th, 2007 at 2:27 am,

The uptrend has been made both ways by Hot Hansen: cool the past, heat the present.

That would be cool the past, heat the immediate past, ignore the present.

John V. September 11th, 2007 at 7:55 am,

Excuse me if I misunderstood your post, but some sort of offset method is required to combine independent records (not scribal variations) at a single station.

You have to allow for the possibility of not just offset differences but also gain differences.

Glass thermometers can suffer bore variations and electronics gain can vary with circuit output with even mW differences in resistance in the measuring circuit. The gain bias may not be random if the resistors used in a given design came from the same mfg. batch.

Thermistor heating can introduce another variable bias depending on temp, wind speed, and RH.

A lot of this could be fixed with high precision resistor networks. They cost more than $.01 per resistor.

By: John Goetz

John Goetz — Wed, 12 Sep 2007 14:37:49 +0000

#83 captdallas2 You can try to find daily values at one of the sites Steve links to here: http://www.climateaudit.org/?page_id=1686 Try GHCN daily and Russian METEO daily

By: captdallas2

captdallas2 — Wed, 12 Sep 2007 14:29:41 +0000

The Leba site (635121200002)is very interesting. If you compare the 1987 – 1989 monthlies you will see the same stuff I saw the first time we set up a A to D converter to run a month long test of a shopping mall air conditioning system. (Then the boss cheaped out with 2% resistors instead of precisions.) Without the daily values it is impossible to determine what happened, but there are some strange values to average.

By: steven mosher

steven mosher — Wed, 12 Sep 2007 13:10:51 +0000

re 77

The Rural adjustment uses a different range. It uses 1000km.
oh and the test for 1000km doesnt care if it crosses a big body of water

By: steven mosher

steven mosher — Wed, 12 Sep 2007 13:08:41 +0000

re 66 yes thats it.

In Hansen 2001, for example, Hansen excised 5 nrthern california sites that had a cooling
trend. The overall cooling was .01C. Cool be gone.
So if his methd here had a cooling bias he would find it.
And it is highly unlikely the bias would be 0.
Therefore I predict the Bias will be a warming one