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	<title>Comments on: Ryan Maue&#039;s 2007 ACE Estimate</title>
	<atom:link href="http://climateaudit.org/2007/10/24/ryan-maues-2007-ace-estimate/feed/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>http://climateaudit.org/2007/10/24/ryan-maues-2007-ace-estimate/</link>
	<description>by Steve McIntyre</description>
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	<item>
		<title>By: cyclone vs hurricane &#124; Popular Urls</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2007/10/24/ryan-maues-2007-ace-estimate/#comment-113297</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[cyclone vs hurricane &#124; Popular Urls]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 22 Nov 2007 05:13:55 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=2268#comment-113297</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[[...] Ryan Maue??s 2007 ACE Estimate [...]]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] Ryan Maue??s 2007 ACE Estimate [...]</p>
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		<title>By: Geoff Sherrington</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2007/10/24/ryan-maues-2007-ace-estimate/#comment-113296</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Geoff Sherrington]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 27 Oct 2007 10:20:22 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=2268#comment-113296</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Fires in Australia - occasional thoughts

Many of the native flora of Australia have seeds that germinate poorly unless subjected to severe threatment, including bushfires. Nurseries and research bodies use high heat, immersion in strong sulphuric acid, abrasion with coarse sand paper and other ways to improve the germination rate.

In the wild, there are hard decisions. In many places, the present landform is dedicated with reverence to the prudent past use of fire management by aborigines. Of course, more fires giving more seeds giving more vegetation can lead to hotter and more destructive fires, harder to control. In our World Heritage areas mere mortals are not allowed to light fires except in devices provided; but I think that aborigines can. I&#039;m not sure. The national science body, the CSIRO, has predictive computer programs to model the effect of fire management regimes (I&#039;ll wash my mouth with soap for mentioning models).

This brings us to carbon trading schemes. In the Northern Territory, a fuel  refinery is said to be paying aborigines to light smaller fires than before, on the grounds that each fire gives off less atmospheric carbon dioxide. Thus, CO2 is conserved and carbon credits can be traded. Of course, this is nonsense because it does not matter if CO2 comes from trees burned today or rotted a decade hence. Fire management will scarcely change the large tree distribution, because termites typically degrade them before they reach a size suitable for commercial harvesting.

The termites create weak, waste areas in the lumber, if harvested, and they also emit a lot of methane after eating. I have seen estimates of termite methane farts enough to affect climate models. Not only termites attack vegetation, there are also witchetty grubs that bore holes in tree roots and decaying trees. These grubs contain sugars - hard to find in the bush - and are harvested and eaten by some aborigines. Aborigines as a group have a high incidence of both diabetes and alcoholism and they and others have been known to leave broken bottles in remote places, objects possibly able to cause fires like a magnifying glass.

So, there are little feedback mechanisms nested in bigger feeddback mechanisms until we reach a serious size scale. More than once over the years, I have flown in a modern jet at night for an hour, with a bushfire front visible the whole time. That&#039;s about 500 miles, I guess. The smoke from fires like this can be generated for many days before a change in wind, or a storm, puts them out. One of the main textural patterns on the outback ground seen from aircraft is past fire damage. Is it damage, or is it nature at work? Sure creates a lot of smoke and a lot of CO2.

The native trees of Australia are almost all evergreens. They do not have Fall season. There is continuous accumulation of fire-loving underbrush. (I wonder of the Mauna Loa CO2 style of annual oscillations are present over Australia). Fire management is quite important in populated areas because of danger to people and property, but Australia is sparse and a lot of the time fires are just a way of life.

I&#039;m waiting for some bright spark to link them to AGW.

Just about now, CA is reporting several diverse links between scientific observations and AGW. Some very long bows are being drawn. Fires seem to be another.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Fires in Australia &#8211; occasional thoughts</p>
<p>Many of the native flora of Australia have seeds that germinate poorly unless subjected to severe threatment, including bushfires. Nurseries and research bodies use high heat, immersion in strong sulphuric acid, abrasion with coarse sand paper and other ways to improve the germination rate.</p>
<p>In the wild, there are hard decisions. In many places, the present landform is dedicated with reverence to the prudent past use of fire management by aborigines. Of course, more fires giving more seeds giving more vegetation can lead to hotter and more destructive fires, harder to control. In our World Heritage areas mere mortals are not allowed to light fires except in devices provided; but I think that aborigines can. I&#8217;m not sure. The national science body, the CSIRO, has predictive computer programs to model the effect of fire management regimes (I&#8217;ll wash my mouth with soap for mentioning models).</p>
<p>This brings us to carbon trading schemes. In the Northern Territory, a fuel  refinery is said to be paying aborigines to light smaller fires than before, on the grounds that each fire gives off less atmospheric carbon dioxide. Thus, CO2 is conserved and carbon credits can be traded. Of course, this is nonsense because it does not matter if CO2 comes from trees burned today or rotted a decade hence. Fire management will scarcely change the large tree distribution, because termites typically degrade them before they reach a size suitable for commercial harvesting.</p>
<p>The termites create weak, waste areas in the lumber, if harvested, and they also emit a lot of methane after eating. I have seen estimates of termite methane farts enough to affect climate models. Not only termites attack vegetation, there are also witchetty grubs that bore holes in tree roots and decaying trees. These grubs contain sugars &#8211; hard to find in the bush &#8211; and are harvested and eaten by some aborigines. Aborigines as a group have a high incidence of both diabetes and alcoholism and they and others have been known to leave broken bottles in remote places, objects possibly able to cause fires like a magnifying glass.</p>
<p>So, there are little feedback mechanisms nested in bigger feeddback mechanisms until we reach a serious size scale. More than once over the years, I have flown in a modern jet at night for an hour, with a bushfire front visible the whole time. That&#8217;s about 500 miles, I guess. The smoke from fires like this can be generated for many days before a change in wind, or a storm, puts them out. One of the main textural patterns on the outback ground seen from aircraft is past fire damage. Is it damage, or is it nature at work? Sure creates a lot of smoke and a lot of CO2.</p>
<p>The native trees of Australia are almost all evergreens. They do not have Fall season. There is continuous accumulation of fire-loving underbrush. (I wonder of the Mauna Loa CO2 style of annual oscillations are present over Australia). Fire management is quite important in populated areas because of danger to people and property, but Australia is sparse and a lot of the time fires are just a way of life.</p>
<p>I&#8217;m waiting for some bright spark to link them to AGW.</p>
<p>Just about now, CA is reporting several diverse links between scientific observations and AGW. Some very long bows are being drawn. Fires seem to be another.</p>
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		<title>By: Andrey Levin</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2007/10/24/ryan-maues-2007-ace-estimate/#comment-113295</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Andrey Levin]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 27 Oct 2007 07:22:28 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=2268#comment-113295</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Re:#62, Nevket:



&lt;blockquote&gt;if it wasnt air pollution when the indigenous people carried out controlled burns, why is it air pollution now???&lt;/blockquote&gt;



Because we live longer .

BTW, indigenous people suffered from smoke too:



&lt;blockquote&gt;According to the World Health Organisation, 1.5 million people die from illnesses caused by indoor smoke (also know as indoor air pollution) every year. Illnesses caused by indoor smoke include pneumonia, chronic respiratory disease and lung cancer. A child exposed to smoke in the home is two to three times more likely to catch pneumonia, which is one of the world&#039;s leading killers of young children. Women who cook on solid fuels are up to four times more likely to suffer from chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases, such as chronic bronchitis.&lt;/blockquote&gt;


http://practicalaction.org/?id=smoke_background

I do not care about smoke in remote unpopulated areas, or when freighter burns heavy oil with 5% sulfur in the middle of the ocean. But in populated areas forest fire smoke is not healthy addition to air.

I suspect you already heard this kind of reasoning from EPA and CARB officials It is true, but the guys forget that in real world sometimes they have to choose between air pollution from controlled burn, or air pollution from wildfire with destruction of homes and lives]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Re:#62, Nevket:</p>
<blockquote><p>if it wasnt air pollution when the indigenous people carried out controlled burns, why is it air pollution now???</p></blockquote>
<p>Because we live longer .</p>
<p>BTW, indigenous people suffered from smoke too:</p>
<blockquote><p>According to the World Health Organisation, 1.5 million people die from illnesses caused by indoor smoke (also know as indoor air pollution) every year. Illnesses caused by indoor smoke include pneumonia, chronic respiratory disease and lung cancer. A child exposed to smoke in the home is two to three times more likely to catch pneumonia, which is one of the world&#8217;s leading killers of young children. Women who cook on solid fuels are up to four times more likely to suffer from chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases, such as chronic bronchitis.</p></blockquote>
<p><a href="http://practicalaction.org/?id=smoke_background" rel="nofollow">http://practicalaction.org/?id=smoke_background</a></p>
<p>I do not care about smoke in remote unpopulated areas, or when freighter burns heavy oil with 5% sulfur in the middle of the ocean. But in populated areas forest fire smoke is not healthy addition to air.</p>
<p>I suspect you already heard this kind of reasoning from EPA and CARB officials It is true, but the guys forget that in real world sometimes they have to choose between air pollution from controlled burn, or air pollution from wildfire with destruction of homes and lives</p>
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		<title>By: JP</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2007/10/24/ryan-maues-2007-ace-estimate/#comment-113294</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[JP]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 27 Oct 2007 03:03:05 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=2268#comment-113294</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Just another poor excuse of climatologists using sub-synotic scale weather events to push an agenda. If this occured 60 years ago, no one would have noticed. My father, during the Korean War, excercised with his fellow Marines in these very same regions before they shipped out overseas. Today, by virtue of sheer numbers (500,000- 1,000,000), civilains decided to anchor thier homesteads. One million evacuated civilians garner more attewntion tha do 18,000 members of the 3rd Marine Division.

So, cool maritime polar airmasses from the Pacific, invade the 4-Corners Region and produce a dry 60mph wind accross a desert. These winds, in turn, cause hundreds of thousands of acres of what was previously uninhabitated scrub land to burn. In an El Nino episode, saturated warm pacific air masses would have caused massive mud slides. It sucks to live in So Cali. Either way you are screwed. Fire or mudslides: Insurance Companies hate both.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Just another poor excuse of climatologists using sub-synotic scale weather events to push an agenda. If this occured 60 years ago, no one would have noticed. My father, during the Korean War, excercised with his fellow Marines in these very same regions before they shipped out overseas. Today, by virtue of sheer numbers (500,000- 1,000,000), civilains decided to anchor thier homesteads. One million evacuated civilians garner more attewntion tha do 18,000 members of the 3rd Marine Division.</p>
<p>So, cool maritime polar airmasses from the Pacific, invade the 4-Corners Region and produce a dry 60mph wind accross a desert. These winds, in turn, cause hundreds of thousands of acres of what was previously uninhabitated scrub land to burn. In an El Nino episode, saturated warm pacific air masses would have caused massive mud slides. It sucks to live in So Cali. Either way you are screwed. Fire or mudslides: Insurance Companies hate both.</p>
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		<title>By: tom s</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2007/10/24/ryan-maues-2007-ace-estimate/#comment-113293</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[tom s]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 27 Oct 2007 01:27:24 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=2268#comment-113293</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Tony Edwards says:

October 26th, 2007 at 5:24 pm
Will C, Willie Wonka and the Chocolate Factory, of course. That was easy, one of my favourites.



Beat me to it...shoulda checked before I posted I guess.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Tony Edwards says:</p>
<p>October 26th, 2007 at 5:24 pm<br />
Will C, Willie Wonka and the Chocolate Factory, of course. That was easy, one of my favourites.</p>
<p>Beat me to it&#8230;shoulda checked before I posted I guess.</p>
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		<title>By: tom s</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2007/10/24/ryan-maues-2007-ace-estimate/#comment-113292</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[tom s]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 27 Oct 2007 01:22:02 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=2268#comment-113292</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[re: 49 Will C. says:

October 26th, 2007 at 8:17 am
Theres no earthly way of knowing, which direction we are going, Theres no knowing where were rowing, or which way the rivers flowing, is it raining is it snowing is a hurricane a-blowing? Not a speck of light is showing, So the danger must be growing. Are the fires of hell a-glowing? Is the grisly reaper mowing? Yes! The danger must be growing For the rowers keep on rowing! And theyre certainly not showing Any signs that they are slowing!

Seemed like an appropriate metaphor for the times

Now, someone guess the movie without googling



  WILLY WONKA! The original with Gene Wilder...best scene of the movie!]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>re: 49 Will C. says:</p>
<p>October 26th, 2007 at 8:17 am<br />
Theres no earthly way of knowing, which direction we are going, Theres no knowing where were rowing, or which way the rivers flowing, is it raining is it snowing is a hurricane a-blowing? Not a speck of light is showing, So the danger must be growing. Are the fires of hell a-glowing? Is the grisly reaper mowing? Yes! The danger must be growing For the rowers keep on rowing! And theyre certainly not showing Any signs that they are slowing!</p>
<p>Seemed like an appropriate metaphor for the times</p>
<p>Now, someone guess the movie without googling</p>
<p>  WILLY WONKA! The original with Gene Wilder&#8230;best scene of the movie!</p>
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		<title>By: tom s</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2007/10/24/ryan-maues-2007-ace-estimate/#comment-113291</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[tom s]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 27 Oct 2007 01:13:12 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=2268#comment-113291</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[27 ed says:

&#039;The only thing unusual about this weeks fires is the number of them. It is not yet clear if some of them were caused by humans.&#039;

Actually Ed, all of these fires in and around San Diego were caused by man one way or another unfortunately. There have been no thunderstorms in your area since when these fires began. These fires were either the result of arson or other non-intentional causes such as sparks, cigs,  downed powerlines from wind etc....Once the fires get going, they feed off themselves of course but none of the recent fires across southern CA and San Diego were caused by natural forces, unless you argue mankind is a natural force of which I will agree. But pinning it on CO2 induced warming is...well...foolish, which you didn&#039;t of course.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>27 ed says:</p>
<p>&#8216;The only thing unusual about this weeks fires is the number of them. It is not yet clear if some of them were caused by humans.&#8217;</p>
<p>Actually Ed, all of these fires in and around San Diego were caused by man one way or another unfortunately. There have been no thunderstorms in your area since when these fires began. These fires were either the result of arson or other non-intentional causes such as sparks, cigs,  downed powerlines from wind etc&#8230;.Once the fires get going, they feed off themselves of course but none of the recent fires across southern CA and San Diego were caused by natural forces, unless you argue mankind is a natural force of which I will agree. But pinning it on CO2 induced warming is&#8230;well&#8230;foolish, which you didn&#8217;t of course.</p>
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		<title>By: nevket240</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2007/10/24/ryan-maues-2007-ace-estimate/#comment-113290</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[nevket240]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 27 Oct 2007 01:05:03 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=2268#comment-113290</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[#52.
Andrey.
       if it wasn&#039;t air pollution when the indigenous people carried out controlled burns, why is it air pollution now???

if it alright to have the Precautionary Principle for CO2 induced CC, why was the same principle abandoned by the same RWMHT in regards to fuel reduction??
(hint, it destroyed their crops)

  cheers.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>#52.<br />
Andrey.<br />
       if it wasn&#8217;t air pollution when the indigenous people carried out controlled burns, why is it air pollution now???</p>
<p>if it alright to have the Precautionary Principle for CO2 induced CC, why was the same principle abandoned by the same RWMHT in regards to fuel reduction??<br />
(hint, it destroyed their crops)</p>
<p>  cheers.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>By: tom s</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2007/10/24/ryan-maues-2007-ace-estimate/#comment-113289</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[tom s]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 27 Oct 2007 00:57:18 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=2268#comment-113289</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[re: 26

Yes tropical storms are very important to rainfall budgets, but if the nutcases have their way they will be trying to thwart and move tropical cyclones. Yeah, that&#039;s what we need...


Former Naval Physicist: Government Can Control Hurricanes

http://www.prisonplanet.com/articles/october2005/141005weather_modification.htm]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>re: 26</p>
<p>Yes tropical storms are very important to rainfall budgets, but if the nutcases have their way they will be trying to thwart and move tropical cyclones. Yeah, that&#8217;s what we need&#8230;</p>
<p>Former Naval Physicist: Government Can Control Hurricanes</p>
<p><a href="http://www.prisonplanet.com/articles/october2005/141005weather_modification.htm" rel="nofollow">http://www.prisonplanet.com/articles/october2005/141005weather_modification.htm</a></p>
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		<title>By: Tony Edwards</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2007/10/24/ryan-maues-2007-ace-estimate/#comment-113288</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Tony Edwards]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 26 Oct 2007 23:24:02 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=2268#comment-113288</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Will C, Willie Wonka and the Chocolate Factory, of course. That was easy, one of my favourites.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Will C, Willie Wonka and the Chocolate Factory, of course. That was easy, one of my favourites.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
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