HURRICANE NOGURI – 1805 Z, 11-JAN-08

EARLIER TODAY, TYPHOON NOGURI CROSSED 180, AFTER A SIGNIFICANT LEFTWARD / NORTHWARD WOBBLE. THIS STORM IS NOW DESIGNATED AS HURRICANE NOGURI, A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE. LOCATION IS 179W, 40N, TRACK HAS RESUMED ESE. AT THIS TIME, THIS FEATURE IS OF NOTE SOLELY TO MARINE TRAFFIC (ESPECIALLY DUMB SHIPS) AS IT IS EXPECTED TO PULL UP STATIONARY AGAINST A PROGRESSIVE RIDGE PROG’ED TO BE ALONG 14OW AT THE TIME. STORM IS PROG’ED TO THEN LOSE STRENGTH, AND, IF IT EVER REACHES LAND, SHOULD BE A TD, AT MOST. NONETHELESS … THIS IS THE 4TH NAMED STORM (AND 4TH HURRICANE!) IN THIS HIGHLY UNPRECEDENTED 2008 SEASON. RETROSPECTIVELY, CHANGING SEASON TO YEAR ROUND (JAN 01 THROUGH DEC 31) WAS A *WISE* CHOICE. EOT. FORECASTER – HAY-MAN.

Posted by stevesadlov at 10:05 AM 0 comments

HURRICANE BORIS – TS WATCH – 1755Z, 11-JAN-08

THE NATIONAL HYSTERIA CENTER (“NHC”), NEPAC DIVISION, HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA, BETWEEN VICTORIA, AND, JUNEAU. HURRICANE BORIS, A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE, IS CURRENTLY LOCATED AT 150W, 42N, AND IS ON A STEADY NE TRACK. GIVEN SST’S (WHICH LOWER CLOSER TO LAND, DUE TO UPWELLING AND THE LONG SHORE CURRENT OUT OF THE NORTH), WE EXPECT SOME REDUCTION IN STRENGTH, DOWN TO TS LEVEL, PRIOR TO LANDFALL. LANDFALL IS PROG’ED FOR SOME TIME LATE Z TOMORROW OR EARLY Z THE FOLLOWING DAY. STRONG WINDS, HEAVY FLOODING RAINS AND NOTABLE STORM SURGE ALONG WITH DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE LAND FALL ZONE, PARTICULARLY IN THE RIGHT, FRONT QUADRANT OF THE STORM. NEXT UPDATE, EARLY, 12-JAN-08 Z. EOT. FORECASTER – HOLDEN.

Of course, odd or unusual weather in a location is heralded as an example of climate change or global warming, and this event is no exception. Iraq snow = climate change

These snowfalls are linked to the climate change that is happening everywhere. We are finding some places in the world which are warm and are supposed to be cold.”

I have an alternative explanation: it is winter.

The final six hours included this note from the NHC:

OLGA LACKS THE CONVECTION REQUIRED OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE…AND BASED
ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY PROBABLY ALSO LACKS A CLOSED SURFACE
CIRCULATION. HOWEVER…WE WILL HANG ON TO OLGA FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS JUST IN CASE DEEP CONVECTION RETURNS OR WEST WINDS BECOME
EVIDENT.

At the time it was declared to be “tropical” it had been over land (Dominican Republic peninsula) for six hours and was entering the very rugged mountains of that island. The NHC based its tropical classification on

THE PROXIMITY OF THE WINDS TO THE CENTER AND THE
PRESENCE OF DEEP CONVECTION SUGGESTED THAT OLGA MADE THE TRANSITION
TO A TROPICAL STORM. RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT COULD NOT MEASURE DATA
FROM OLGA’S CENTER BECAUSE THE CYCLONE HAD ALREADY MOVED INLAND
PRIOR TO A POSSIBLE PENETRATION

That is weak. There was no measurement of a warm core, any winds and precipitation were affected by land/mountain interaction and the winds were still removed from the center. On the consequence side, the system was about to die in the Hispaniola mountains. Why make the classification change based on such weak conjecture? It baffles me. I hope they reconsider the classification when the reanalysis is performed.