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	<title>Comments on: USHCN &quot;Raw&quot; &#8211; A Small Puzzle</title>
	<atom:link href="http://climateaudit.org/2008/03/05/ushcn-raw-a-small-puzzle/feed/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>http://climateaudit.org/2008/03/05/ushcn-raw-a-small-puzzle/</link>
	<description>by Steve McIntyre</description>
	<lastBuildDate>Tue, 21 May 2013 15:32:22 +0000</lastBuildDate>
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	<item>
		<title>By: John Goetz</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2008/03/05/ushcn-raw-a-small-puzzle/#comment-139992</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[John Goetz]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 13 Mar 2008 22:12:37 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=2830#comment-139992</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Steve McIntyre,

In your Kalispell plot, do both datasets you used to compare begin in 1896 or 1899? I ask because the monthly data I find begins in 1896, but the daily data found in &lt;a href=&quot;http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/ghcn/daily/42500244558.dly&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/ghcn/daily/42500244558.dly&lt;/a&gt; begins in 1899. Right now I am assuming that you are ignoring the years 1896 through 1898, but it is hard to tell from the plot.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Steve McIntyre,</p>
<p>In your Kalispell plot, do both datasets you used to compare begin in 1896 or 1899? I ask because the monthly data I find begins in 1896, but the daily data found in <a href="http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/ghcn/daily/42500244558.dly" rel="nofollow">http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/ghcn/daily/42500244558.dly</a> begins in 1899. Right now I am assuming that you are ignoring the years 1896 through 1898, but it is hard to tell from the plot.</p>
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		<title>By: John Goetz</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2008/03/05/ushcn-raw-a-small-puzzle/#comment-139991</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[John Goetz]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 09 Mar 2008 19:52:24 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=2830#comment-139991</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Steve McIntyre,

In your Kalispell plot, do both datasets you used to compare begin in 1896 or 1899? I ask because the monthly data I find begins in 1896, but the daily data found in http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/ghcn/daily/42500244558.dly begins in 1899. Right now I am assuming that you are ignoring the years 1896 through 1898, but it is hard to tell from the plot.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Steve McIntyre,</p>
<p>In your Kalispell plot, do both datasets you used to compare begin in 1896 or 1899? I ask because the monthly data I find begins in 1896, but the daily data found in <a href="http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/ghcn/daily/42500244558.dly" rel="nofollow">http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/ghcn/daily/42500244558.dly</a> begins in 1899. Right now I am assuming that you are ignoring the years 1896 through 1898, but it is hard to tell from the plot.</p>
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		<title>By: JerryB</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2008/03/05/ushcn-raw-a-small-puzzle/#comment-139990</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[JerryB]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 09 Mar 2008 19:20:29 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=2830#comment-139990</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Re #47,

John,

If you are looking in hcn_doe_mean_data.Z , the fourth line
labeled 3C is a &quot;confidence factor&quot;, and is not related to
the urban adjustment.  The USHCN urban adjusted mean temps
are in a different file: urban_mean_fahr.Z .]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Re #47,</p>
<p>John,</p>
<p>If you are looking in hcn_doe_mean_data.Z , the fourth line<br />
labeled 3C is a &#8220;confidence factor&#8221;, and is not related to<br />
the urban adjustment.  The USHCN urban adjusted mean temps<br />
are in a different file: urban_mean_fahr.Z .</p>
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		<title>By: aurbo</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2008/03/05/ushcn-raw-a-small-puzzle/#comment-139989</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[aurbo]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 09 Mar 2008 18:49:49 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=2830#comment-139989</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Re #44:

Jerry

The 128°F &quot;outlier&quot; from McConnellsville Lock OH back on Jan 2, 1900 would never have been a problem for contemporary weather plotters and analysts back then. They would have simply noted that the three nearest first order stations...Columbus OH, Parkersburg WV and Cincinnati OH all reported a max temperatures of 28°F for that date and you can guess what they plotted for McConnellsville.

This sort of illustrates the value of what was lost when computers programmed without AI oversight replaced thinking humans. Of course computers can do a lot more and much more quickly than people, but the point is that before the computer age, with much less to do and more time to do it, weather observers on the whole were more precise and fussier about their observations then than they are today when the dependence is on machines and electronics. The McConnellsville record was clearly a typo rather than a faulty observation. Where and how it entered into the NCDC data base is a matter of speculation, but you can bet that no observer ever entered that number onto the original record.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Re #44:</p>
<p>Jerry</p>
<p>The 128°F &#8220;outlier&#8221; from McConnellsville Lock OH back on Jan 2, 1900 would never have been a problem for contemporary weather plotters and analysts back then. They would have simply noted that the three nearest first order stations&#8230;Columbus OH, Parkersburg WV and Cincinnati OH all reported a max temperatures of 28°F for that date and you can guess what they plotted for McConnellsville.</p>
<p>This sort of illustrates the value of what was lost when computers programmed without AI oversight replaced thinking humans. Of course computers can do a lot more and much more quickly than people, but the point is that before the computer age, with much less to do and more time to do it, weather observers on the whole were more precise and fussier about their observations then than they are today when the dependence is on machines and electronics. The McConnellsville record was clearly a typo rather than a faulty observation. Where and how it entered into the NCDC data base is a matter of speculation, but you can bet that no observer ever entered that number onto the original record.</p>
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		<title>By: John Goetz</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2008/03/05/ushcn-raw-a-small-puzzle/#comment-139988</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[John Goetz]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 09 Mar 2008 18:19:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=2830#comment-139988</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[#40 aurbo

When I look at the records for Kalispell, the &quot;4. Urban: these data have all adjustments including the urban heat (UHI) adjustments.&quot; records all have a small magnitude. Does this represent the &lt;em&gt;amount of&lt;/em&gt; adjustment? It clearly does not represent the adjusted temperature.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>#40 aurbo</p>
<p>When I look at the records for Kalispell, the &#8220;4. Urban: these data have all adjustments including the urban heat (UHI) adjustments.&#8221; records all have a small magnitude. Does this represent the <em>amount of</em> adjustment? It clearly does not represent the adjusted temperature.</p>
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		<title>By: John Goetz</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2008/03/05/ushcn-raw-a-small-puzzle/#comment-139987</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[John Goetz]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 09 Mar 2008 17:58:56 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=2830#comment-139987</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[aurbo and  JerryB

Thank you for pointing me to exactly what I was looking for.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>aurbo and  JerryB</p>
<p>Thank you for pointing me to exactly what I was looking for.</p>
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		<title>By: steven mosher</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2008/03/05/ushcn-raw-a-small-puzzle/#comment-139986</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[steven mosher]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 09 Mar 2008 17:56:23 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=2830#comment-139986</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Somehow I knew you knew about this.

Moving from 138 stations to 1062 by &quot;changing a few&quot; quality rules seems to me to be
a step change of sorts.?

One criteria that interested me was attempt to select stations that had minimal TOBS
adjustments ( not in magnatude but in number) I think it would be interesting from a purely
theoretcial standpoint to look at what trends and errors we get in the US record if we select
Homogeneous stations  at the start, rather than trying to homogenize bad stations to
good ones and pretending that we gain &quot;area coverage&quot; thereby. ( I think willis and I have beat this dead horse and are ready to mumify it)]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Somehow I knew you knew about this.</p>
<p>Moving from 138 stations to 1062 by &#8220;changing a few&#8221; quality rules seems to me to be<br />
a step change of sorts.?</p>
<p>One criteria that interested me was attempt to select stations that had minimal TOBS<br />
adjustments ( not in magnatude but in number) I think it would be interesting from a purely<br />
theoretcial standpoint to look at what trends and errors we get in the US record if we select<br />
Homogeneous stations  at the start, rather than trying to homogenize bad stations to<br />
good ones and pretending that we gain &#8220;area coverage&#8221; thereby. ( I think willis and I have beat this dead horse and are ready to mumify it)</p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>By: JerryB</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2008/03/05/ushcn-raw-a-small-puzzle/#comment-139985</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[JerryB]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 09 Mar 2008 17:39:57 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=2830#comment-139985</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[steven,

I have been aware of the 138 station collection (NPD042), and
have saved a copy of it, but have not done anything else with it.
I have tinkered a bit with the 1062 station collection (NDP070).

It was in NDP070 that I first noticed my favorite &quot;outlier&quot;:
128 F TMAX in McConnellsville Lock, Ohio, on January 2, 1900.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>steven,</p>
<p>I have been aware of the 138 station collection (NPD042), and<br />
have saved a copy of it, but have not done anything else with it.<br />
I have tinkered a bit with the 1062 station collection (NDP070).</p>
<p>It was in NDP070 that I first noticed my favorite &#8220;outlier&#8221;:<br />
128 F TMAX in McConnellsville Lock, Ohio, on January 2, 1900.</p>
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		<title>By: steven mosher</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2008/03/05/ushcn-raw-a-small-puzzle/#comment-139984</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[steven mosher]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 09 Mar 2008 15:57:10 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=2830#comment-139984</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[re 42. JerryB, did you know about this list of 138 Prime USHCN stations?

ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/ushcn/daily/README

It would appear that in 1992 (H92) they selected the best 138 stations, and then later expanded that to 1062, changing the quality guidelines to gain spatial coverage.

The selection of stations for inclusion
    in H92 was performed with the following data quality issues in mind.

      1. The degree to which each station maintained a constant
         observation time for maximum and minimum temperatures,
         excursions from a station&#039;s predominant observing time of no
         more than four years being desired.

      2. At least 95% of a station&#039;s pre-1951 data should be contained
         in NCDC digital daily archives.

      3. A station&#039;s potential for heat island bias over time should be
         low.

      4. Quality assessments based upon the decile ranking assigned by
         Karl et al. (1990) to the stations&#039; monthly maximum/minimum
         temperature data for certain quality characteristics.

    Since the release of H92, much more work has been conducted at NCDC
    involving compilation and digitizing of daily data.  However, to enable
    the compilation of a database providing better spatial coverage of the
    contiguous United States, the four station selection criteria listed
    above were not strictly adhered to in the current version of the HCN/D
    presented here.&quot;]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>re 42. JerryB, did you know about this list of 138 Prime USHCN stations?</p>
<p><a href="ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/ushcn/daily/README" rel="nofollow">ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/ushcn/daily/README</a></p>
<p>It would appear that in 1992 (H92) they selected the best 138 stations, and then later expanded that to 1062, changing the quality guidelines to gain spatial coverage.</p>
<p>The selection of stations for inclusion<br />
    in H92 was performed with the following data quality issues in mind.</p>
<p>      1. The degree to which each station maintained a constant<br />
         observation time for maximum and minimum temperatures,<br />
         excursions from a station&#8217;s predominant observing time of no<br />
         more than four years being desired.</p>
<p>      2. At least 95% of a station&#8217;s pre-1951 data should be contained<br />
         in NCDC digital daily archives.</p>
<p>      3. A station&#8217;s potential for heat island bias over time should be<br />
         low.</p>
<p>      4. Quality assessments based upon the decile ranking assigned by<br />
         Karl et al. (1990) to the stations&#8217; monthly maximum/minimum<br />
         temperature data for certain quality characteristics.</p>
<p>    Since the release of H92, much more work has been conducted at NCDC<br />
    involving compilation and digitizing of daily data.  However, to enable<br />
    the compilation of a database providing better spatial coverage of the<br />
    contiguous United States, the four station selection criteria listed<br />
    above were not strictly adhered to in the current version of the HCN/D<br />
    presented here.&#8221;</p>
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		<title>By: JerryB</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2008/03/05/ushcn-raw-a-small-puzzle/#comment-139983</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[JerryB]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 09 Mar 2008 10:50:46 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=2830#comment-139983</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[John Goetz,

A revision, and a bit more:

&quot;..., and could not be the source for stations for which TMAX/TMIN data
are not reported.&quot;

should have been:

&quot;..., and could not be the source for stations for which the &quot;official&quot;
TMEAN is based on something other than TMAX and TMIN.&quot;

Regarding USHCN data getting to GHCN, see the update to
http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=2711

Various parts of the US NCDC route data to various collections such as
GHCN and USHCN.  The USHCN data go through USHCN processing before they
become &quot;official&quot; and go to GHCN, or get published in the USHCN
directory, on the NCDC FTP server.  Then GISS, or whoever wishes to do
so, e.g. CDIAC, can pick them up.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>John Goetz,</p>
<p>A revision, and a bit more:</p>
<p>&#8220;&#8230;, and could not be the source for stations for which TMAX/TMIN data<br />
are not reported.&#8221;</p>
<p>should have been:</p>
<p>&#8220;&#8230;, and could not be the source for stations for which the &#8220;official&#8221;<br />
TMEAN is based on something other than TMAX and TMIN.&#8221;</p>
<p>Regarding USHCN data getting to GHCN, see the update to<br />
<a href="http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=2711" rel="nofollow">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=2711</a></p>
<p>Various parts of the US NCDC route data to various collections such as<br />
GHCN and USHCN.  The USHCN data go through USHCN processing before they<br />
become &#8220;official&#8221; and go to GHCN, or get published in the USHCN<br />
directory, on the NCDC FTP server.  Then GISS, or whoever wishes to do<br />
so, e.g. CDIAC, can pick them up.</p>
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