2007 1 0.594
2007 2 0.45
2007 3 0.403
2007 4 0.244
2007 5 0.199
2007 6 0.203
2007 7 0.255
2007 8 0.286
2007 9 0.201
2007 10 0.231
2007 11 0.209
2007 12 0.114
2008 1 -0.046
2008 2 0.02
2008 3 0.089
2008 4 0.015
2008 5 -0.18
2008 6 -0.114

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NO SIGNIFICANT WARMING SINCE AT LEAST ~1940

Posted with figures and sources May 24, 2008 at
http://www.iberica2000.org/Es/Articulo.asp?Id=3774

Excerpt:

The evidence to date suggests that increased atmospheric CO2 plays NO significant role in causing global warming.

The best data shows no significant warming since ~1940. The lack of significant warming is evident in UAH Lower Troposphere temperature data from ~1980 to end April 2008, and Hadcrut3 Surface Temperature data from ~1940 to ~1980.

Chart: The global cooling from approximately 1946-1977 coincides with the cool phase of a natural cycle called the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and the warming from approximately 1977-2007 coincides with the warming phase of the PDO. NASA announced in 2008 that the PDO has again shifted to its cool phase. Significant cooling was experienced in 2007-2008, and is expected to continue.

Furthermore, it is clear that CO2 lags temperature at all measured time scales, from ice core data spanning thousands of years to sub-decadal trends – the latter as stated in my January 31, 2008 paper and previously by Kuo (1990) and Keeling (1995) .

In late November 2007 Pieter Tans described the close relationship between dCO2/dt and temperature, about one month before I made a similar finding. This is a further step forward in our understanding.

Figure 3 from my 2008 paper shows the close relationship between dCO2/dt and temperature, and the approximate 9 month lag of CO2 after temperature.

Finally, human-made CO2 emissions have increased almost 800% since 1940.

This data consistently suggests that the sensitivity of global temperature to increased atmospheric CO2 is near-zero, and thus there is no human-made catastrophic global warming crisis.

Allan MacRae, Calgary

May 24th, 2008

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Data sources:

LT data: http://www.atmos.uah.edu/data/msu/t2lt/tltglhmam_5.2

ST data: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/temperature/hadcrut3gl.txt

My paper: http://icecap.us/images/uploads/CO2vsTMacRae.pdf

Tan’s paper: http://esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/co2conference/agenda.html

CO2 data from CDIAC: http://cdiac.ornl.gov/ftp/ndp030/global.1751_2004.ems

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Further explanation:

There has been very significant Lower Troposphere (LT) cooling in the past 18 months. This cooling has also been observed in the Surface Temperature (ST), but that data is much less reliable, as further discussed further below.

The average LT global temperature anomaly for the four months January-April 2008 (inclusive) is +0.02 degrees C.
The average LT global temperature anomaly for year 1980 is +0.09 degrees C.

The average ST global temperature anomaly for year 1980 is +0.08 degrees C.
The average ST global temperature anomaly for year 1940 is +0.02 degrees C.

By no significant warming, I mean no net average global warming between 1940 and 2008, as measured by our best instruments. There has been some cooling and warming and very recent cooling again, but not much net change since 1940.

Some observers might want to (erroneously, imo) use the ST data exclusively, to prove that warming has occurred. The 1980-to-present ST data exhibits a strong and misleading warming bias, as demonstrated by Michaels and McKitrick (2007) and others. Although the monthly variations in the ST and LT data match very well, the two plots diverge, with ST rising above LT. I sincerely doubt that this divergence is a long-term reality, since it would suggest that the surface has warmed significantly more than the Lower Troposphere over the past few decades.

For a comparison of ST and LT data, see Figure 1 of my January 31, 2008 paper.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO):

In ~1905, the PDO shifted into its warm phase and the world got warmer.
In ~1946, the PDO shifted into its cold phase and the world got colder.
In ~1977, the PDO shifted into its warm phase and the world got warmer again.
In ~2007-08, the PDO shifted into its cold phase and the world got much colder.

***********************************************************************************************

CU.

Not bad for a warming scenario.

I didn’t find it here
http://www.climateaudit.org/?page_id=1288

June comes in at 26, continuing the downward trend at GISS and making it the seventh lowest anomaly this decade.

Lots of history was rewritten by the June temperature, with 89 monthly adjustments upward and 22 downward. Most of the downward adjustments were made this decade, and most of the upward adjustments were made pre-1941. At an annual level, 9 years before 1928 were adjusted upward, and 2007 was adjusted downward.

As for 2008, Jan and Feb were unchanged, Mar up 2, Apr up 1, and May up 3. The uplifts in M-A-M surprised me some, because I would have expected out of season months (such as June) to have no effect. Such is the GISS method.

If I have two sources of measurement, one noisier than the other, how should they be combined to get the most “information”? Pick the least noisy only? no, you combine them through an inverse covariance filter.

Not exactly. This assumes that the sources are in fact unbiased for the parameters being estimated. Including a source which is biased (regardless of its variability) can produce an estimator with a higher mean-square error than omitting it. In this case, I suspect that, because the ice has a considerably higher variability than the mercury, it would require a demonstration that that the bias is very low before using it as a “proxy”. Considering the effects of other variables (cloud, sea currents, etc.) on the melting of ice, this sounds like quite a task.