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	<title>Comments on: Briffa et al 2008</title>
	<atom:link href="http://climateaudit.org/2008/07/14/briffa-et-al-2007/feed/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>http://climateaudit.org/2008/07/14/briffa-et-al-2007/</link>
	<description>by Steve McIntyre</description>
	<lastBuildDate>Tue, 21 May 2013 15:32:22 +0000</lastBuildDate>
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		<title>By: Tornetrask Digital Version &#8211; Hooray! &#171; Climate Audit</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2008/07/14/briffa-et-al-2007/#comment-343348</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Tornetrask Digital Version &#8211; Hooray! &#171; Climate Audit]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 18 Jul 2012 14:56:34 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=3266#comment-343348</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[[...] press), which included Tornetrask, mixed in some proportion with Finnish Lapland. As noted in my discussion of this post, no data was archived. I have just heard back from the journal and will profile this [...]]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] press), which included Tornetrask, mixed in some proportion with Finnish Lapland. As noted in my discussion of this post, no data was archived. I have just heard back from the journal and will profile this [...]</p>
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		<title>By: Climate Research News &#187; The &#8216;Hockey Stick&#8217; IS Dead</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2008/07/14/briffa-et-al-2007/#comment-154888</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Climate Research News &#187; The &#8216;Hockey Stick&#8217; IS Dead]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 28 Sep 2009 10:44:23 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=3266#comment-154888</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[[...] 5. Then one day Briffa et al. published a paper in 2008 using the Yamal series, again without archiving it. However they published in a Phil Tran Royal Soc journal which has strict data sharing rules. Steve got on the case. http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=3266 [...]]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] 5. Then one day Briffa et al. published a paper in 2008 using the Yamal series, again without archiving it. However they published in a Phil Tran Royal Soc journal which has strict data sharing rules. Steve got on the case. <a href="http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=3266" rel="nofollow">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=3266</a> [...]</p>
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		<title>By: Quote of the week #20 &#8211; ding dong the stick is dead &#171; Watts Up With That?</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2008/07/14/briffa-et-al-2007/#comment-154887</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Quote of the week #20 &#8211; ding dong the stick is dead &#171; Watts Up With That?]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 28 Sep 2009 03:27:18 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=3266#comment-154887</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[[...] 5. Then one day Briffa et al. published a paper in 2008 using the Yamal series, again without archiving it. However they published in a Phil Tran Royal Soc journal which has strict data sharing rules. Steve got on the case. http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=3266 [...]]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] 5. Then one day Briffa et al. published a paper in 2008 using the Yamal series, again without archiving it. However they published in a Phil Tran Royal Soc journal which has strict data sharing rules. Steve got on the case. <a href="http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=3266" rel="nofollow">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=3266</a> [...]</p>
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		<title>By: K. Hamed</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2008/07/14/briffa-et-al-2007/#comment-154886</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[K. Hamed]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 19 Jul 2008 10:31:15 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=3266#comment-154886</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Bernie #65

In my openion, the test is approporiate for this kind of investigation. My only concern is the effect of autocorrelation. Judging by the simulations supplied by Willis #42 and my experience with tau, the existence of autocorrelation in each series increases the variance of the test statistic, resulting in more rejections (or equivalently highly significant test statistic values) than when each series is random.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Bernie #65</p>
<p>In my openion, the test is approporiate for this kind of investigation. My only concern is the effect of autocorrelation. Judging by the simulations supplied by Willis #42 and my experience with tau, the existence of autocorrelation in each series increases the variance of the test statistic, resulting in more rejections (or equivalently highly significant test statistic values) than when each series is random.</p>
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		<title>By: Willis Eschenbach</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2008/07/14/briffa-et-al-2007/#comment-154885</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Willis Eschenbach]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 18 Jul 2008 21:53:08 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=3266#comment-154885</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Further to my last post, error bars are also useful when comparing different length records. Briffa 2008 shows us Kendall W figures for data lengths of 51, 101, and 201 years. Surely the accuracy of the statistic improves with increasing length of the datasets considered.

Gotta run, more later,

w.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Further to my last post, error bars are also useful when comparing different length records. Briffa 2008 shows us Kendall W figures for data lengths of 51, 101, and 201 years. Surely the accuracy of the statistic improves with increasing length of the datasets considered.</p>
<p>Gotta run, more later,</p>
<p>w.</p>
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		<title>By: Willis Eschenbach</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2008/07/14/briffa-et-al-2007/#comment-154884</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Willis Eschenbach]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 18 Jul 2008 21:47:46 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=3266#comment-154884</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Ulises, thanks for your thoughts and clarifications. Among them, you say:

&lt;blockquote&gt;What would you do with it if you knew it ? With more discrepancies between series, R is low and W drops accordingly. That&#039;s the logic of the test, no matter how R is composed.&lt;/blockquote&gt;

I fear you misunderstand my point. Inherently, there is nothing to distinguish between a Kendall W comprised of six identical Spearman Rank correlations between k=4 datasets (lets say all of the R&#039;s are 0.5), and a Kendall W comprised of six Spearman Rank correlations of R = (0, 0.25, 0.5, 0.5, 0.75, 1). Because the averages are equal, both give a W statistic of (3*R+1)/4 = 0.625

I hold that in the second case, the Kendall W will have a greater inherent inaccuracy than in the first, and that the way to deal with this is to put error bars on the Concordance figure. This is particularly true when a claim is made (as in Briffa 2008) that a slight change in the W statistic has some larger significance. If the slight change is less than the sum in quadrature of the relevant errors, then it has no statistical significance.

w.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Ulises, thanks for your thoughts and clarifications. Among them, you say:</p>
<blockquote><p>What would you do with it if you knew it ? With more discrepancies between series, R is low and W drops accordingly. That&#8217;s the logic of the test, no matter how R is composed.</p></blockquote>
<p>I fear you misunderstand my point. Inherently, there is nothing to distinguish between a Kendall W comprised of six identical Spearman Rank correlations between k=4 datasets (lets say all of the R&#8217;s are 0.5), and a Kendall W comprised of six Spearman Rank correlations of R = (0, 0.25, 0.5, 0.5, 0.75, 1). Because the averages are equal, both give a W statistic of (3*R+1)/4 = 0.625</p>
<p>I hold that in the second case, the Kendall W will have a greater inherent inaccuracy than in the first, and that the way to deal with this is to put error bars on the Concordance figure. This is particularly true when a claim is made (as in Briffa 2008) that a slight change in the W statistic has some larger significance. If the slight change is less than the sum in quadrature of the relevant errors, then it has no statistical significance.</p>
<p>w.</p>
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		<title>By: bernie</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2008/07/14/briffa-et-al-2007/#comment-154883</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[bernie]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 18 Jul 2008 21:45:06 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=3266#comment-154883</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[K. Hamed:
I would still be interested on your take on how Briffa used Kendall W both specifically with respect to the results (How should he have stated his results?) and from a pure measurement point of view ( Would you have used this measure?).]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>K. Hamed:<br />
I would still be interested on your take on how Briffa used Kendall W both specifically with respect to the results (How should he have stated his results?) and from a pure measurement point of view ( Would you have used this measure?).</p>
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	<item>
		<title>By: K. Hamed</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2008/07/14/briffa-et-al-2007/#comment-154882</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[K. Hamed]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 18 Jul 2008 18:47:16 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=3266#comment-154882</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Ulises #63

Thanks for the explanation. However, in his book &quot;Rank Correlation Methods (1948)&quot;, Kendall writes about tau (section 1.13): &quot;...... and thus has evident recommendations as a measure of the concordance between two rankings.&quot;
There should be no problem in calling perfect negative correlation between two rankings &quot;discordance&quot; or &quot;perfect disagreement&quot; which is also used by Kendall in section 1.8 in his book. Of course for three or more rankings we can only talk about concordance or discordance.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Ulises #63</p>
<p>Thanks for the explanation. However, in his book &#8220;Rank Correlation Methods (1948)&#8221;, Kendall writes about tau (section 1.13): &#8220;&#8230;&#8230; and thus has evident recommendations as a measure of the concordance between two rankings.&#8221;<br />
There should be no problem in calling perfect negative correlation between two rankings &#8220;discordance&#8221; or &#8220;perfect disagreement&#8221; which is also used by Kendall in section 1.8 in his book. Of course for three or more rankings we can only talk about concordance or discordance.</p>
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		<title>By: Ulises</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2008/07/14/briffa-et-al-2007/#comment-154881</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Ulises]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 18 Jul 2008 15:32:13 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=3266#comment-154881</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[# 59 K. Hamed :

&lt;blockquote&gt;I was referring to Kendall&#039;s Tau, another measure of concordance....&lt;/blockquote&gt;

In fact, it&#039;s a measure of correlation, let&#039;s not confound the concepts. Imagine you have the series x = (1,2,3,4) and y = (1,2,3,4). Then you have perfect correlation and perfect concordance (agreement between series). With y = (4,3,2,1) instead, you still have perfect (negative) correlation, but zero concordance.

  # 61 Willis :


&lt;blockquote&gt;The Kendall W is defined as....&lt;/blockquote&gt;

BTW,the original definition is a different one. The computation through the average rank correlations is just one way. Conover (&quot;Practical Nonparametric Statistics&quot;) explains the interrelationships between Kendall&#039;s W, Friedman Test (a rank-based analysis of variance) and average Spearman&#039;s rho.



&lt;blockquote&gt;...there is another uncertainty in the calculation of W, which is the standard error of the mean of the... pairwise rank coefficients.
Without the data, however, there&#039;s no way to tell how large that uncertainty is.&lt;/blockquote&gt;

What would you do with it if you knew it ? With more discrepancies between series, R is low and W drops accordingly. That&#039;s the logic of the test, no matter how R is composed.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p># 59 K. Hamed :</p>
<blockquote><p>I was referring to Kendall&#8217;s Tau, another measure of concordance&#8230;.</p></blockquote>
<p>In fact, it&#8217;s a measure of correlation, let&#8217;s not confound the concepts. Imagine you have the series x = (1,2,3,4) and y = (1,2,3,4). Then you have perfect correlation and perfect concordance (agreement between series). With y = (4,3,2,1) instead, you still have perfect (negative) correlation, but zero concordance.</p>
<p>  # 61 Willis :</p>
<blockquote><p>The Kendall W is defined as&#8230;.</p></blockquote>
<p>BTW,the original definition is a different one. The computation through the average rank correlations is just one way. Conover (&#8220;Practical Nonparametric Statistics&#8221;) explains the interrelationships between Kendall&#8217;s W, Friedman Test (a rank-based analysis of variance) and average Spearman&#8217;s rho.</p>
<blockquote><p>&#8230;there is another uncertainty in the calculation of W, which is the standard error of the mean of the&#8230; pairwise rank coefficients.<br />
Without the data, however, there&#8217;s no way to tell how large that uncertainty is.</p></blockquote>
<p>What would you do with it if you knew it ? With more discrepancies between series, R is low and W drops accordingly. That&#8217;s the logic of the test, no matter how R is composed.</p>
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		<title>By: Bishop Hill</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2008/07/14/briffa-et-al-2007/#comment-154880</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Bishop Hill]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 18 Jul 2008 06:22:42 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=3266#comment-154880</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Steve #60

You&#039;re welcome. Just don&#039;t go holding your breath, OK?]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Steve #60</p>
<p>You&#8217;re welcome. Just don&#8217;t go holding your breath, OK?</p>
]]></content:encoded>
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