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	<title>Comments on: GISS Spackle and Caulk</title>
	<atom:link href="http://climateaudit.org/2008/08/11/giss-spackle-and-caulk/feed/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>http://climateaudit.org/2008/08/11/giss-spackle-and-caulk/</link>
	<description>by Steve McIntyre</description>
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		<title>By: Walter Dnes</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2008/08/11/giss-spackle-and-caulk/#comment-158376</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Walter Dnes]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 13 Aug 2008 21:21:48 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=3415#comment-158376</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Can somebody post a URL where I can get my hands on the actual global station temperature data, not the gridded data? And the 1951..1980 normals that GISS compares against? And also the adjustment factors used?  I want to get my hands dirty looking at this.
&lt;strong&gt;
Steve:&lt;/strong&gt; If you go to the &quot;page&quot; in the left frame entitled &quot;Station Data&quot;, I&#039;ve collected many links.  I have some scripts online as well in the scripts directory, but you&#039;ll have to forage through them a bit.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Can somebody post a URL where I can get my hands on the actual global station temperature data, not the gridded data? And the 1951..1980 normals that GISS compares against? And also the adjustment factors used?  I want to get my hands dirty looking at this.<br />
<strong><br />
Steve:</strong> If you go to the &#8220;page&#8221; in the left frame entitled &#8220;Station Data&#8221;, I&#8217;ve collected many links.  I have some scripts online as well in the scripts directory, but you&#8217;ll have to forage through them a bit.</p>
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		<title>By: Tim Ball</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2008/08/11/giss-spackle-and-caulk/#comment-158375</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Tim Ball]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 12 Aug 2008 20:00:29 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=3415#comment-158375</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[They made the shift back in the 1990s over the protests of some of the staff. The AWOS installed were so unreliable they hired people to check them. I  know at Winnipeg a retired employee came in early every morning to compare the AWOS readings to calibrated thermometers.  When NavCanada was formed and took over the airports they refused to accept the AWOS as unreliable which triggered a hearing in the Senate chaired by Senator Carney.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>They made the shift back in the 1990s over the protests of some of the staff. The AWOS installed were so unreliable they hired people to check them. I  know at Winnipeg a retired employee came in early every morning to compare the AWOS readings to calibrated thermometers.  When NavCanada was formed and took over the airports they refused to accept the AWOS as unreliable which triggered a hearing in the Senate chaired by Senator Carney.</p>
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		<title>By: Fred Nieuwenhuis</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2008/08/11/giss-spackle-and-caulk/#comment-158374</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Fred Nieuwenhuis]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 12 Aug 2008 18:35:49 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description><![CDATA[CA has discussed GHCN and Canadian stations, particularly Dawson, YT here:
http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=1538   &amp; http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=2772

There are four Dawson YT sites in the Canadian data set, three of which are used in the GHCN station list:

CA002100400	64.05	-139.43	320	DAWSON
CA002100LRP	64.05	-139.13	370	DAWSON
CA002100402	64.05	-139.13	370	DAWSON A	GSN	71966

2100400 daily data starts in 1897 and ends in 1979 (http://www.climate.weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/climateData/dailydata_e.html?timeframe=2&amp;Prov=CA&amp;StationID=1534)
2100LRP daily data starts in 1995 and is current (http://www.climate.weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/climateData/dailydata_e.html?timeframe=2&amp;Prov=CA&amp;StationID=10194)

2100402 daily data starts in 1976 and ends in 2007 (http://www.climate.weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/climateData/dailydata_e.html?timeframe=2&amp;Prov=CA&amp;StationID=1535)  This is one of the stations that I noticed data issues with regards resolution.  Starting June of &#039;95, the daily Tmin and Tmax readings are in X.0 or X.5.

I suspect 2100LRP and 2100402 are the same station but different equipment since Env. Can has given the LRP station the WMO ID# 71966 but GHCN is giving 2100402 the WMO ID# 71966.

Just a little confusing...]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>CA has discussed GHCN and Canadian stations, particularly Dawson, YT here:<br />
<a href="http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=1538" rel="nofollow">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=1538</a>   &amp; <a href="http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=2772" rel="nofollow">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=2772</a></p>
<p>There are four Dawson YT sites in the Canadian data set, three of which are used in the GHCN station list:</p>
<p>CA002100400	64.05	-139.43	320	DAWSON<br />
CA002100LRP	64.05	-139.13	370	DAWSON<br />
CA002100402	64.05	-139.13	370	DAWSON A	GSN	71966</p>
<p>2100400 daily data starts in 1897 and ends in 1979 (<a href="http://www.climate.weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/climateData/dailydata_e.html?timeframe=2&#038;Prov=CA&#038;StationID=1534" rel="nofollow">http://www.climate.weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/climateData/dailydata_e.html?timeframe=2&#038;Prov=CA&#038;StationID=1534</a>)<br />
2100LRP daily data starts in 1995 and is current (<a href="http://www.climate.weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/climateData/dailydata_e.html?timeframe=2&#038;Prov=CA&#038;StationID=10194" rel="nofollow">http://www.climate.weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/climateData/dailydata_e.html?timeframe=2&#038;Prov=CA&#038;StationID=10194</a>)</p>
<p>2100402 daily data starts in 1976 and ends in 2007 (<a href="http://www.climate.weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/climateData/dailydata_e.html?timeframe=2&#038;Prov=CA&#038;StationID=1535" rel="nofollow">http://www.climate.weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/climateData/dailydata_e.html?timeframe=2&#038;Prov=CA&#038;StationID=1535</a>)  This is one of the stations that I noticed data issues with regards resolution.  Starting June of &#8217;95, the daily Tmin and Tmax readings are in X.0 or X.5.</p>
<p>I suspect 2100LRP and 2100402 are the same station but different equipment since Env. Can has given the LRP station the WMO ID# 71966 but GHCN is giving 2100402 the WMO ID# 71966.</p>
<p>Just a little confusing&#8230;</p>
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		<title>By: Fred Nieuwenhuis</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2008/08/11/giss-spackle-and-caulk/#comment-158373</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Fred Nieuwenhuis]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 12 Aug 2008 17:20:45 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=3415#comment-158373</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Tim,
I have no idea (re AWOS stations).  That info is not readily available on the Env. Can. website(http://www.msc-smc.ec.gc.ca/_toc/index_e.html) .  However, I have noticed a few stations that have QC  issues, e.g. daily temperature readings with a 0.5 C of resolution ie. readings of X.0 or X.5.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Tim,<br />
I have no idea (re AWOS stations).  That info is not readily available on the Env. Can. website(<a href="http://www.msc-smc.ec.gc.ca/_toc/index_e.html" rel="nofollow">http://www.msc-smc.ec.gc.ca/_toc/index_e.html</a>) .  However, I have noticed a few stations that have QC  issues, e.g. daily temperature readings with a 0.5 C of resolution ie. readings of X.0 or X.5.</p>
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		<title>By: Tim Ball</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2008/08/11/giss-spackle-and-caulk/#comment-158372</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Tim Ball]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 12 Aug 2008 16:28:16 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=3415#comment-158372</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[How many of the Canadian stations switched from observer readings to Automatic Weather Observing Stations (AWOS) during the period of record?]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>How many of the Canadian stations switched from observer readings to Automatic Weather Observing Stations (AWOS) during the period of record?</p>
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		<title>By: Carl Gullans</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2008/08/11/giss-spackle-and-caulk/#comment-158371</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Carl Gullans]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 12 Aug 2008 12:29:16 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=3415#comment-158371</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[#27:  Yes, that is the case, but the metadata to determine weather on a daily basis is not readily available.  Another idea which is a bit easier but still problematic due to poor metadata would be to look at missing values by measurement instrument (mercury, MMTS).  I&#039;d think that missing values would be happening for different reasons between these two, and that there might be a stronger bias in one group or the other.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>#27:  Yes, that is the case, but the metadata to determine weather on a daily basis is not readily available.  Another idea which is a bit easier but still problematic due to poor metadata would be to look at missing values by measurement instrument (mercury, MMTS).  I&#8217;d think that missing values would be happening for different reasons between these two, and that there might be a stronger bias in one group or the other.</p>
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		<title>By: FrancisT</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2008/08/11/giss-spackle-and-caulk/#comment-158370</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[FrancisT]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 12 Aug 2008 08:37:01 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=3415#comment-158370</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[It seems to me that one interesting question is why they do the monthly average with the other two months in the quarter instead of the two adjacent months even if one is out of the quarter. This is effectively linear interpolation and could clearly be extended if 2 or more months in sequence are missing their data.

Relatedly there is the question of what happens if you do the average that way?

I can see that this could reduce the variance of the data. I&#039;d be very curious to know if it also changed the accuracy. [Perhaps I need to figure out how to get the GISS data into R and run the tests unfortunately I&#039;ve yet to get R working for me]]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>It seems to me that one interesting question is why they do the monthly average with the other two months in the quarter instead of the two adjacent months even if one is out of the quarter. This is effectively linear interpolation and could clearly be extended if 2 or more months in sequence are missing their data.</p>
<p>Relatedly there is the question of what happens if you do the average that way?</p>
<p>I can see that this could reduce the variance of the data. I&#8217;d be very curious to know if it also changed the accuracy. [Perhaps I need to figure out how to get the GISS data into R and run the tests unfortunately I've yet to get R working for me]</p>
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		<title>By: Geoff Sherrington</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2008/08/11/giss-spackle-and-caulk/#comment-158369</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Geoff Sherrington]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 12 Aug 2008 05:58:42 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=3415#comment-158369</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I think I can recall correctly that in the olden days we were taught

1. Do not assume that normal distribution statistics apply simply because a curve looks bell-shaped. Test the maths.

2. Aggregation of many observations will generally give a better precision estimate, but might say nothing about accuracy (bias) improvement.

3. Where possible, use standard units of measurement. Imagine that the ranges derived above could be anomalies versus a stipulated period, or Celcius, or degrees F, or degrees absolute. Each choice gives a different appearance to the plot.

Re the question of massaging of Canadian data before its is processed more. I have a paper &quot;&lt;strong&gt;Updating Australia&#039;s high-quality annual temperature dataset&lt;/strong&gt;&quot; by Paul Della-Marta, Dean Collins and Karl Braganza. Rec&#039;d June 2003. Published &lt;em&gt;Aust. Met. Mag.&lt;/em&gt; 53 (2004) 75-93. I have it in paper form only.

Some quotes: On UHI correction &quot;Ultimately a subjective decision was made for each station as to whether it was likely to have been influenced by urbanisation.&quot; Point of illustration - this procedure, repeated many times, might have evened out the plus and minus precision deviations, but it might have done nothing for bias).

On station quality &quot;However, at present, the information in the database is only reliable since the mid to late 1990s&quot; (GS: This might have improved since).

On this thread &quot;Some records contain(ed) many years in which annual mean values were estimated by Torok and Nicholls (1996) using a reference series based on highly correlated neighbour series&quot;.

It is unfair to cite these comments out of context, but one might see some similarity with the procedures of the thread above. At last inquiry, I was invited to go to the BOM library to read the PhD thesis of S.J. Torok 1996 from Melbourne University. I gained the impression that much Australian temperature data handling is based on this thesis.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I think I can recall correctly that in the olden days we were taught</p>
<p>1. Do not assume that normal distribution statistics apply simply because a curve looks bell-shaped. Test the maths.</p>
<p>2. Aggregation of many observations will generally give a better precision estimate, but might say nothing about accuracy (bias) improvement.</p>
<p>3. Where possible, use standard units of measurement. Imagine that the ranges derived above could be anomalies versus a stipulated period, or Celcius, or degrees F, or degrees absolute. Each choice gives a different appearance to the plot.</p>
<p>Re the question of massaging of Canadian data before its is processed more. I have a paper &#8220;<strong>Updating Australia&#8217;s high-quality annual temperature dataset</strong>&#8221; by Paul Della-Marta, Dean Collins and Karl Braganza. Rec&#8217;d June 2003. Published <em>Aust. Met. Mag.</em> 53 (2004) 75-93. I have it in paper form only.</p>
<p>Some quotes: On UHI correction &#8220;Ultimately a subjective decision was made for each station as to whether it was likely to have been influenced by urbanisation.&#8221; Point of illustration &#8211; this procedure, repeated many times, might have evened out the plus and minus precision deviations, but it might have done nothing for bias).</p>
<p>On station quality &#8220;However, at present, the information in the database is only reliable since the mid to late 1990s&#8221; (GS: This might have improved since).</p>
<p>On this thread &#8220;Some records contain(ed) many years in which annual mean values were estimated by Torok and Nicholls (1996) using a reference series based on highly correlated neighbour series&#8221;.</p>
<p>It is unfair to cite these comments out of context, but one might see some similarity with the procedures of the thread above. At last inquiry, I was invited to go to the BOM library to read the PhD thesis of S.J. Torok 1996 from Melbourne University. I gained the impression that much Australian temperature data handling is based on this thesis.</p>
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		<title>By: Michael Hauber</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2008/08/11/giss-spackle-and-caulk/#comment-158368</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Michael Hauber]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 12 Aug 2008 05:36:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=3415#comment-158368</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[#19 Johan,

if we assume 1000 random estimateions with an error of 1 degree, and the error is randomly and normally distributed, the error in the average is:
individual error / sqrt(number measurements) = .03 degrees.
This won&#039;t take into account any systematic errors/biases, such any tendancy for measurements to be more likely missing in snow storms etc.

If there is a systematic bias due to the &#039;snow storm effect&#039;, this may not effect the trend unless the bias changes over time.  For instance if there are more or less snow storms now than 20 years ago, or if measurers today are more/less devoted and less/more likely to skip a measurement today in a snow storm than they were 20 years ago.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>#19 Johan,</p>
<p>if we assume 1000 random estimateions with an error of 1 degree, and the error is randomly and normally distributed, the error in the average is:<br />
individual error / sqrt(number measurements) = .03 degrees.<br />
This won&#8217;t take into account any systematic errors/biases, such any tendancy for measurements to be more likely missing in snow storms etc.</p>
<p>If there is a systematic bias due to the &#8216;snow storm effect&#8217;, this may not effect the trend unless the bias changes over time.  For instance if there are more or less snow storms now than 20 years ago, or if measurers today are more/less devoted and less/more likely to skip a measurement today in a snow storm than they were 20 years ago.</p>
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		<title>By: Matt</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2008/08/11/giss-spackle-and-caulk/#comment-158367</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Matt]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 12 Aug 2008 04:06:42 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=3415#comment-158367</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Re: #9 Carl

Yes, I had the same thought with a different twist.  There may be more likelyhood of missing data on cold/windy/stormy/snowed-in days than on a balmy winter days.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Re: #9 Carl</p>
<p>Yes, I had the same thought with a different twist.  There may be more likelyhood of missing data on cold/windy/stormy/snowed-in days than on a balmy winter days.</p>
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