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	<title>Comments on: Mann et al 2008: Korttajärvi</title>
	<atom:link href="http://climateaudit.org/2008/09/03/mann-et-al-2008-korttajarvi/feed/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>http://climateaudit.org/2008/09/03/mann-et-al-2008-korttajarvi/</link>
	<description>by Steve McIntyre</description>
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		<title>By: EW</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2008/09/03/mann-et-al-2008-korttajarvi/#comment-161116</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[EW]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 03 Oct 2008 22:51:45 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=3536#comment-161116</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Still at sea. I&#039;m only a biologist after all. I somehow supposed that there is embedded some sort of instrumental temperature calibration guesswork in ther analysis for all these proxies.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Still at sea. I&#8217;m only a biologist after all. I somehow supposed that there is embedded some sort of instrumental temperature calibration guesswork in ther analysis for all these proxies.</p>
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		<title>By: Steve McIntyre</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2008/09/03/mann-et-al-2008-korttajarvi/#comment-161115</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Steve McIntyre]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 02 Oct 2008 18:51:14 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=3536#comment-161115</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[It&#039;s not converted directly into temperature. It&#039;s standardized and then input into the Mannomatic RegEM algorithm, which we&#039;re trying to figure out. At the end of the day, the Mannomatic will assign weights to these and other series and use that to make their temperature estimate. The $64 question is how much weight is borne by this sort of data in the final result. In the non-dendro recon, it appears to be quite material for their MWP estimates, but we don&#039;t know yet.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>It&#8217;s not converted directly into temperature. It&#8217;s standardized and then input into the Mannomatic RegEM algorithm, which we&#8217;re trying to figure out. At the end of the day, the Mannomatic will assign weights to these and other series and use that to make their temperature estimate. The $64 question is how much weight is borne by this sort of data in the final result. In the non-dendro recon, it appears to be quite material for their MWP estimates, but we don&#8217;t know yet.</p>
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		<title>By: EW</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2008/09/03/mann-et-al-2008-korttajarvi/#comment-161114</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[EW]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 02 Oct 2008 18:47:25 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=3536#comment-161114</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Now I&#039;m really confused and lost. How were the varve data converted into temperatures in Mann08, when the original authors do not make any translation of the whole curve into degrees?]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Now I&#8217;m really confused and lost. How were the varve data converted into temperatures in Mann08, when the original authors do not make any translation of the whole curve into degrees?</p>
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		<title>By: Jean S</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2008/09/03/mann-et-al-2008-korttajarvi/#comment-161113</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Jean S]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 02 Oct 2008 13:06:36 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=3536#comment-161113</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Re: &lt;a href=&quot;#comment-302263&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;Nylo (#13)&lt;/a&gt;,
There is an additional irony here. The very same study was used by a Finnish TV program MOT in 2004 in order to support the idea of MWP (in Finland)! They even interviewed (script &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.yle.fi/mot/mb040906/kasikirjoitus.htm&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;here&lt;/a&gt;) the third author (Antti Ojala) who estimated that MWP was 0.5C-1C warmer thant the present in Finland.

&lt;blockquote&gt;Mot: ”Mitä arvioisit, kuinka paljon lämpimämpää oli tuolloin keskiajalla Suomessa kuin on nyt?
[Mot: What would you estimate, how much warmer than the present it was during the medieval times in Finland?]

Ojala: ”Sitä on näiden perusteella aika vaikea täsmällisesti sanoa. mutta puhutaan tommosesta puolesta asteesta, jopa asteesta erilaisten eurooppalaisten tutkimusten valossa”.
[Ojala: In the light of these results, it is very hard to tell exactly, but we talk about something like half a degree, even one degree in the light of various European research results.]&lt;/blockquote&gt;]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Re: <a href="#comment-302263" rel="nofollow">Nylo (#13)</a>,<br />
There is an additional irony here. The very same study was used by a Finnish TV program MOT in 2004 in order to support the idea of MWP (in Finland)! They even interviewed (script <a href="http://www.yle.fi/mot/mb040906/kasikirjoitus.htm" rel="nofollow">here</a>) the third author (Antti Ojala) who estimated that MWP was 0.5C-1C warmer thant the present in Finland.</p>
<blockquote><p>Mot: ”Mitä arvioisit, kuinka paljon lämpimämpää oli tuolloin keskiajalla Suomessa kuin on nyt?<br />
[Mot: What would you estimate, how much warmer than the present it was during the medieval times in Finland?]</p>
<p>Ojala: ”Sitä on näiden perusteella aika vaikea täsmällisesti sanoa. mutta puhutaan tommosesta puolesta asteesta, jopa asteesta erilaisten eurooppalaisten tutkimusten valossa”.<br />
[Ojala: In the light of these results, it is very hard to tell exactly, but we talk about something like half a degree, even one degree in the light of various European research results.]</p></blockquote>
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		<title>By: Nylo</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2008/09/03/mann-et-al-2008-korttajarvi/#comment-161112</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Nylo]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 02 Oct 2008 11:21:08 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=3536#comment-161112</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Re: &lt;a href=&quot;#comment-302254&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;Jean S (#12)&lt;/a&gt;,

From the downloadable PDF at your link, I would remark a couple of sentences:

(Pg 22)
&lt;blockquote&gt;&quot;The most distinctive climate period in the whole sediment sequence is the Medieval Warm Period in AD 980-1250&quot;&lt;/blockquote&gt;

(Pg 24)
&lt;blockquote&gt;&quot;Since the early 18th century, the sedimentation has clearly been affected by increased human impact and therefore not useful for paleoclimate research&quot;.&lt;/blockquote&gt;

Yet Mann manages to use it to prove AGW...]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Re: <a href="#comment-302254" rel="nofollow">Jean S (#12)</a>,</p>
<p>From the downloadable PDF at your link, I would remark a couple of sentences:</p>
<p>(Pg 22)</p>
<blockquote><p>&#8220;The most distinctive climate period in the whole sediment sequence is the Medieval Warm Period in AD 980-1250&#8243;</p></blockquote>
<p>(Pg 24)</p>
<blockquote><p>&#8220;Since the early 18th century, the sedimentation has clearly been affected by increased human impact and therefore not useful for paleoclimate research&#8221;.</p></blockquote>
<p>Yet Mann manages to use it to prove AGW&#8230;</p>
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		<title>By: Jean S</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2008/09/03/mann-et-al-2008-korttajarvi/#comment-161111</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Jean S]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 02 Oct 2008 10:30:46 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=3536#comment-161111</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Tiljander&#039;s PhD thesis, which also summarizes her paper linked by Steve in #4, is available &lt;a href=&quot;http://ethesis.helsinki.fi/julkaisut/mat/geolo/vk/tiljander/&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;here&lt;/a&gt;.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Tiljander&#8217;s PhD thesis, which also summarizes her paper linked by Steve in #4, is available <a href="http://ethesis.helsinki.fi/julkaisut/mat/geolo/vk/tiljander/" rel="nofollow">here</a>.</p>
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		<title>By: Nylo</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2008/09/03/mann-et-al-2008-korttajarvi/#comment-161110</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Nylo]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 02 Oct 2008 09:29:43 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=3536#comment-161110</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Re: &lt;a href=&quot;#comment-302203&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;Steve McIntyre (#10)&lt;/a&gt;,

I can&#039;t believe it... Mann manages to bury his standards deeper and deeper, again and again. He should be in the Guiness book. This is just hilarious.

I&#039;m sure it is just a mistake by Mann. But mistakes like this prove that whenever they get the &quot;right&quot; answer, no further research or data verification is performed. This way, errors can only bias any study in the desired direction. Bad science.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Re: <a href="#comment-302203" rel="nofollow">Steve McIntyre (#10)</a>,</p>
<p>I can&#8217;t believe it&#8230; Mann manages to bury his standards deeper and deeper, again and again. He should be in the Guiness book. This is just hilarious.</p>
<p>I&#8217;m sure it is just a mistake by Mann. But mistakes like this prove that whenever they get the &#8220;right&#8221; answer, no further research or data verification is performed. This way, errors can only bias any study in the desired direction. Bad science.</p>
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		<title>By: Steve McIntyre</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2008/09/03/mann-et-al-2008-korttajarvi/#comment-161109</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Steve McIntyre]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 02 Oct 2008 04:07:35 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=3536#comment-161109</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[#9. bingo, you got it. I&#039;ll so a post on this tomorrow.

Mann&#039;s flipping of the data is both humorous and illuminating. Yes, he used the data upside down (Upside-Down Mann) as a paleoclimate proxy based on a spurious correlation between increased sediments directly attributable to farming and a supposed teleconnection to world temperature. :)

All 4 Kortajarvi  series are used incorrectly.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>#9. bingo, you got it. I&#8217;ll so a post on this tomorrow.</p>
<p>Mann&#8217;s flipping of the data is both humorous and illuminating. Yes, he used the data upside down (Upside-Down Mann) as a paleoclimate proxy based on a spurious correlation between increased sediments directly attributable to farming and a supposed teleconnection to world temperature. <img src='http://s0.wp.com/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif' alt=':)' class='wp-smiley' /> </p>
<p>All 4 Kortajarvi  series are used incorrectly.</p>
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		<title>By: varve</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2008/09/03/mann-et-al-2008-korttajarvi/#comment-161108</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[varve]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 02 Oct 2008 03:41:08 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=3536#comment-161108</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Re: &lt;a href=&quot;#comment-301991&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;Steve McIntyre (#4)&lt;/a&gt;,

After reading the Tiljander paper, it&#039;s clear that the measurement of the amount of minerals deposited annually in the lake sedimentation (designated as LS by Tiljander) should be inverted if it is going to be used as a temperature proxy (which at one point in the paper Tiljander seems to caution against doing, suggesting instead that hydrology rather than temperature is indicated).  According to the authors, in years where the temperature is colder, more snow falls in the winter and consequently the spring thaw brings a larger amount of erosion from the melting snow -- depositing more minerals in the lake bottom.

This is in contrast to the measurement of the organic matter in the sedimentation (designated as DS by Tiljander).  Again, according to the paper, in years where the temperature is warmer, more organic matter is deposited in the lake bottom.  (Of course, the authors also point out that given the introduction of anthropogenic factors in recent times disturbing the natural deposition of sediment in the lake, neither of these relationships really holds true for the last two centuries)

Yet the proxy series used by Mann (Lightsum -- proxy #1061) corresponding to the measurement of the minerals does not seem to be inverted.  It appears to be used in the same fashion as the series for measurement of the organic matter (Darksum -- proxy #1062).  This seems like such an elementary mistake that I&#039;m sure it must be me that is confused, and not Mr. Mann.  Perhaps the Lightsum series was inverted by Mr. Mann without any clear notation?]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Re: <a href="#comment-301991" rel="nofollow">Steve McIntyre (#4)</a>,</p>
<p>After reading the Tiljander paper, it&#8217;s clear that the measurement of the amount of minerals deposited annually in the lake sedimentation (designated as LS by Tiljander) should be inverted if it is going to be used as a temperature proxy (which at one point in the paper Tiljander seems to caution against doing, suggesting instead that hydrology rather than temperature is indicated).  According to the authors, in years where the temperature is colder, more snow falls in the winter and consequently the spring thaw brings a larger amount of erosion from the melting snow &#8212; depositing more minerals in the lake bottom.</p>
<p>This is in contrast to the measurement of the organic matter in the sedimentation (designated as DS by Tiljander).  Again, according to the paper, in years where the temperature is warmer, more organic matter is deposited in the lake bottom.  (Of course, the authors also point out that given the introduction of anthropogenic factors in recent times disturbing the natural deposition of sediment in the lake, neither of these relationships really holds true for the last two centuries)</p>
<p>Yet the proxy series used by Mann (Lightsum &#8212; proxy #1061) corresponding to the measurement of the minerals does not seem to be inverted.  It appears to be used in the same fashion as the series for measurement of the organic matter (Darksum &#8212; proxy #1062).  This seems like such an elementary mistake that I&#8217;m sure it must be me that is confused, and not Mr. Mann.  Perhaps the Lightsum series was inverted by Mr. Mann without any clear notation?</p>
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		<title>By: tty</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2008/09/03/mann-et-al-2008-korttajarvi/#comment-161107</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[tty]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 01 Oct 2008 18:40:20 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=3536#comment-161107</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Re: 7

There is practically no permafrost in Finland today and probably hasn&#039;t been since the last glaciation. The exception is &quot;palsar&quot;, mounds of permanently frozen peat that occur locally in bogs in northernmost Finland. And while the southern limit of permafrost is very sensitive to climatic change, the deep permafrost in Northern Siberia is more durable than most people think. During the previous interglacial (which lasted for 10,000 years) temperatures were as much as 10 degrees higher than today on the Taimyr peninsula, and even so some permafrost survived (and no large CH4 outgassing occurred).]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Re: 7</p>
<p>There is practically no permafrost in Finland today and probably hasn&#8217;t been since the last glaciation. The exception is &#8220;palsar&#8221;, mounds of permanently frozen peat that occur locally in bogs in northernmost Finland. And while the southern limit of permafrost is very sensitive to climatic change, the deep permafrost in Northern Siberia is more durable than most people think. During the previous interglacial (which lasted for 10,000 years) temperatures were as much as 10 degrees higher than today on the Taimyr peninsula, and even so some permafrost survived (and no large CH4 outgassing occurred).</p>
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