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	<title>Comments on: Mannian CPS</title>
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	<link>http://climateaudit.org/2008/11/01/mannian-cps/</link>
	<description>by Steve McIntyre</description>
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		<title>By: JamesG</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2008/11/01/mannian-cps/#comment-166946</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[JamesG]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 07 Nov 2008 08:13:56 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=4244#comment-166946</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[In any event Mann already has a couple of Chinese proxies with an MWP, and also MWP&#039;s from Central and South America. What he didn&#039;t seem to have was any MWP for the Arctic or Northern Europe. Of course if he had inverted the Finnish lake data then it&#039;d be different. But this was the big oddity for me in the proxies since Mann was previously very vocal in asserting that that it was only a &quot;European&quot; warm period yet none of his data seems to support that point of view.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>In any event Mann already has a couple of Chinese proxies with an MWP, and also MWP&#8217;s from Central and South America. What he didn&#8217;t seem to have was any MWP for the Arctic or Northern Europe. Of course if he had inverted the Finnish lake data then it&#8217;d be different. But this was the big oddity for me in the proxies since Mann was previously very vocal in asserting that that it was only a &#8220;European&#8221; warm period yet none of his data seems to support that point of view.</p>
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		<title>By: Willis Eschenbach</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2008/11/01/mannian-cps/#comment-166945</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Willis Eschenbach]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 07 Nov 2008 05:44:30 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=4244#comment-166945</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[mpaul, thanks for the link to the chinese proxy. I was curious how a rainfall proxy could also be a temperature proxy ... they say:

&lt;blockquote&gt;The WX42B δ18O record presents an apparent negative correlation to the local precipitation (r=-0.64) and a strong positive correlation with local temperature after the 1960&#039;s (r=0.8) .&lt;/blockquote&gt;

In other words, if you throw away the first decade of temperature data (1950-1960) there is a good correlation with temperature (0.80). However, this struck me as a strange claim ... why not include all the data? I digitized their post 1950 data, and I agree with their post-1960 figure of 0.8.

What they neglect to mention is that if you throw away the last decade of data (1990-2000) the correlation with temperature drops to a miserable (and no longer statistically significant) 0.32 ... I weep for the death of science.

Finally, the monsoons are driven by the summer temperature difference between the ocean and the land. Accordingly, there should be more rain when there are hotter summers ... but their data indicates the opposite. What&#039;s up with that?

w.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>mpaul, thanks for the link to the chinese proxy. I was curious how a rainfall proxy could also be a temperature proxy &#8230; they say:</p>
<blockquote><p>The WX42B δ18O record presents an apparent negative correlation to the local precipitation (r=-0.64) and a strong positive correlation with local temperature after the 1960&#8242;s (r=0.8) .</p></blockquote>
<p>In other words, if you throw away the first decade of temperature data (1950-1960) there is a good correlation with temperature (0.80). However, this struck me as a strange claim &#8230; why not include all the data? I digitized their post 1950 data, and I agree with their post-1960 figure of 0.8.</p>
<p>What they neglect to mention is that if you throw away the last decade of data (1990-2000) the correlation with temperature drops to a miserable (and no longer statistically significant) 0.32 &#8230; I weep for the death of science.</p>
<p>Finally, the monsoons are driven by the summer temperature difference between the ocean and the land. Accordingly, there should be more rain when there are hotter summers &#8230; but their data indicates the opposite. What&#8217;s up with that?</p>
<p>w.</p>
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		<title>By: Steve McIntyre</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2008/11/01/mannian-cps/#comment-166944</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Steve McIntyre]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 07 Nov 2008 02:56:26 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=4244#comment-166944</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[ACtually, it turns out that this is very much on topic.  In the AD800, AD1000 Mann 2008 segments, speleothems are very important -something that&#039;s been mentioned before in connection with Socotra and Dongge. I&#039;ve been spending a lot of time in the past 2 weeks looking at speloethem papers, especially in south Asia. So this new proxy is relevant.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>ACtually, it turns out that this is very much on topic.  In the AD800, AD1000 Mann 2008 segments, speleothems are very important -something that&#8217;s been mentioned before in connection with Socotra and Dongge. I&#8217;ve been spending a lot of time in the past 2 weeks looking at speloethem papers, especially in south Asia. So this new proxy is relevant.</p>
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		<title>By: mpaul</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2008/11/01/mannian-cps/#comment-166943</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[mpaul]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 07 Nov 2008 01:19:17 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=4244#comment-166943</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[A bit OT.  Actually, kinda far OT.

http://www.wtop.com/?nid=220&amp;sid=1512340

I can&#039;t seem to find the original paper referenced.  But this article implies that this is a non-European proxy showing a medieval warm period.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>A bit OT.  Actually, kinda far OT.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.wtop.com/?nid=220&#038;sid=1512340" rel="nofollow">http://www.wtop.com/?nid=220&#038;sid=1512340</a></p>
<p>I can&#8217;t seem to find the original paper referenced.  But this article implies that this is a non-European proxy showing a medieval warm period.</p>
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		<title>By: Dave Dardinger</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2008/11/01/mannian-cps/#comment-166942</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Dave Dardinger]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 06 Nov 2008 16:43:12 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=4244#comment-166942</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Steve,

&quot;Back to business.&quot;

You go first.  I&#039;ve noticed a paucity of messages lately but we got 200+ messages on a one day thread.  Could you come up with a moderately provocative climate thread which would get those of us trying to detox from the US election back on track?  Maybe something like how long it will take / has taken for the current economic downturn to affect the slope of the CO2 emissions / CO2 atmospheric concentration curves?  In fact I wonder if ocean SSTs have been declining (due to PDO or whatever) and if that will make it difficult to observe any economic impact since colder SSTs should result in increased uptake of atmospheric CO2.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Steve,</p>
<p>&#8220;Back to business.&#8221;</p>
<p>You go first.  I&#8217;ve noticed a paucity of messages lately but we got 200+ messages on a one day thread.  Could you come up with a moderately provocative climate thread which would get those of us trying to detox from the US election back on track?  Maybe something like how long it will take / has taken for the current economic downturn to affect the slope of the CO2 emissions / CO2 atmospheric concentration curves?  In fact I wonder if ocean SSTs have been declining (due to PDO or whatever) and if that will make it difficult to observe any economic impact since colder SSTs should result in increased uptake of atmospheric CO2.</p>
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		<title>By: Peter D. Tillman</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2008/11/01/mannian-cps/#comment-166941</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Peter D. Tillman]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 04 Nov 2008 02:22:07 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=4244#comment-166941</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Re: &lt;a href=&quot;#comment-309439&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;UC (#8)&lt;/a&gt;,

Thanks, UC.

Here&#039;s a decent beginner&#039;s guide to Multivariate Calibration:
http://dbkgroup.org/WhitePapers/imc.htm

Best, Pete Tillman]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Re: <a href="#comment-309439" rel="nofollow">UC (#8)</a>,</p>
<p>Thanks, UC.</p>
<p>Here&#8217;s a decent beginner&#8217;s guide to Multivariate Calibration:<br />
<a href="http://dbkgroup.org/WhitePapers/imc.htm" rel="nofollow">http://dbkgroup.org/WhitePapers/imc.htm</a></p>
<p>Best, Pete Tillman</p>
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		<title>By: Carl Gullans</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2008/11/01/mannian-cps/#comment-166940</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Carl Gullans]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 03 Nov 2008 14:10:20 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=4244#comment-166940</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[#19:  Here is an extensive list of acronyms that some climate audit readers have been compiling:

-http://climateaudit101.wikispot.org/Glossary_of_Acronyms]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>#19:  Here is an extensive list of acronyms that some climate audit readers have been compiling:</p>
<p>-http://climateaudit101.wikispot.org/Glossary_of_Acronyms</p>
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		<title>By: Steve McIntyre</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2008/11/01/mannian-cps/#comment-166939</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Steve McIntyre]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 03 Nov 2008 13:48:29 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=4244#comment-166939</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[#17. I try to write clearly, but I&#039;m not trying to make each blog post as a self-standing essay in which everything is defined. It would be nice to do so, but I don&#039;t have time to do this and keep doing new work.

CPS is a technique that&#039;s been discussed dozens of times here and if you do the site google, you get dozens of references on this site alone. Having said that, it should have been in the list of acronyms, which I haven&#039;t been keeping up to data - my apologies - and I&#039;ve added to it.

PS someone posted up a comment suggesting a link to a better list of acronyms. If they&#039;ll refresh this, I&#039;ll attend to it.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>#17. I try to write clearly, but I&#8217;m not trying to make each blog post as a self-standing essay in which everything is defined. It would be nice to do so, but I don&#8217;t have time to do this and keep doing new work.</p>
<p>CPS is a technique that&#8217;s been discussed dozens of times here and if you do the site google, you get dozens of references on this site alone. Having said that, it should have been in the list of acronyms, which I haven&#8217;t been keeping up to data &#8211; my apologies &#8211; and I&#8217;ve added to it.</p>
<p>PS someone posted up a comment suggesting a link to a better list of acronyms. If they&#8217;ll refresh this, I&#8217;ll attend to it.</p>
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		<title>By: Jim Melton</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2008/11/01/mannian-cps/#comment-166938</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Jim Melton]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 03 Nov 2008 13:44:43 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=4244#comment-166938</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Thanks again for your efforts Steve and I do hope that you dig up something interesting in your further analysis, but for me the graphs of the proxies are enough:

Even where you can find one proxy that seems to show a sensitivity similar to another at one time period somewhere else in time there are massive divergences. What does averaging (or any other inappropriate stat) tell you about the collected data.

1) They are not the same
2) They are not measurements or approximations to any single or related group of constants that is understood
3) er..

This is not apples v pears or even Cherries v cherry pie more like Barbara Cartland&#039;s novels v Magna Carta.

They share some vagaries of common language and nothing else.

Astrology for the 21st Century]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Thanks again for your efforts Steve and I do hope that you dig up something interesting in your further analysis, but for me the graphs of the proxies are enough:</p>
<p>Even where you can find one proxy that seems to show a sensitivity similar to another at one time period somewhere else in time there are massive divergences. What does averaging (or any other inappropriate stat) tell you about the collected data.</p>
<p>1) They are not the same<br />
2) They are not measurements or approximations to any single or related group of constants that is understood<br />
3) er..</p>
<p>This is not apples v pears or even Cherries v cherry pie more like Barbara Cartland&#8217;s novels v Magna Carta.</p>
<p>They share some vagaries of common language and nothing else.</p>
<p>Astrology for the 21st Century</p>
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		<title>By: braddles</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2008/11/01/mannian-cps/#comment-166937</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[braddles]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 03 Nov 2008 10:44:21 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=4244#comment-166937</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[For lesser readers like me feel a bit stupid because they don&#039;t know what &quot;CPS&quot; is, it stands for &quot;composite-plus-scale&quot;. The fact that it has been reduced to its initials here does not mean that it is in common usage.

In fact, Googling &quot;composite plus scale&quot; finds no more than about 40 hits on the entire Web, virtually all of them related to Mann and temperature reconstructions. Wikipedia has a long list of things called &quot;CPS&quot; but this is not one of them. There doesn&#039;t seem to be anything standard about it.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>For lesser readers like me feel a bit stupid because they don&#8217;t know what &#8220;CPS&#8221; is, it stands for &#8220;composite-plus-scale&#8221;. The fact that it has been reduced to its initials here does not mean that it is in common usage.</p>
<p>In fact, Googling &#8220;composite plus scale&#8221; finds no more than about 40 hits on the entire Web, virtually all of them related to Mann and temperature reconstructions. Wikipedia has a long list of things called &#8220;CPS&#8221; but this is not one of them. There doesn&#8217;t seem to be anything standard about it.</p>
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