Comments on: Memo to Gavin Schmidt

By: bender

bender — Mon, 21 Dec 2009 23:36:43 +0000

Kirensk, mentioned above, is one station fingered by Kamel to be wholly inconsistent with Jones’s Siberian data. Comments, Gavin?

By: Dennis Wingo

Dennis Wingo — Mon, 17 Nov 2008 06:14:22 +0000

Steve

There is something that is incongruous about the Siberian warming. If you have watched the march of the Arctic ice on a daily basis this year (I have) the Arctic ice marched like Sherman to the coast from the end of September till about the end of October when it completely filled the region abutting the Russian northern mainland. Here are the trendlines from Cryosphere.

Lapatev Sea

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/recent365.anom.region.8.html

Kara Sea

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/recent365.anom.region.7.html

East Siberian Sea

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/recent365.anom.region.9.html

Chukchi Sea

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/recent365.anom.region.10.html

Barents Sea

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/recent365.anom.region.6.html

Even though there is an October or early November “blip” in the ice area, each of the specific areas sans one on the Russian side of the Arctic is hundreds of thousands of square miles more in extent than at this time last year and in aggregate is over 1 million square km larger in extent than last year. Yet Siberia is shown as much warmer than the rest of the Arctic regions?

Something is clearly amiss here.

By: KimberleyCornish

KimberleyCornish — Sat, 15 Nov 2008 22:11:28 +0000

Working on the principle that (even in the post-communist era) no information emerges from Russia without scrutiny and approval by the Russian intelligence agencies, is there any way that reports of a warming Siberia work to the political advantage of Russia? That is to say, do the Russians have a political motive to massage reported temperature data upwards? (I am not saying that they do, but would be interested to see feedback.)

By: Sam Urbinto

Sam Urbinto — Fri, 14 Nov 2008 21:13:59 +0000

As I asked on the BB, what is in store for October, November and December for the anomaly?

The last 10 years were

1998 .447
1999 .320
2000 .217
2001 .540
2002 .453
2003 .610
2004 .573
2005 .647
2006 .637
2007 .470

Are we in for another 1984? A 1992? A 1997? Well it’s pretty sure it will be between 0 and .65

And really, what’s +/-.325 amongst friends.

By: Patrick M.

Patrick M. — Fri, 14 Nov 2008 12:25:08 +0000

If you look at the “Watch the pea thread” you can see that Australia heated up at the same time as North America. Now NA has gone back to where it was but Australia has not.

By: Bob Koss

Bob Koss — Fri, 14 Nov 2008 07:38:04 +0000

I just checked Australia in GHCN and it is the same as GISS for 2006-07. All 43 stations in 2008 have essentially complete data for the year. Wonder what happened in 06-07.

By: STAY WARM, WORLD… Roger Carr « Stay Warm, World…

STAY WARM, WORLD… Roger Carr « Stay Warm, World… — Fri, 14 Nov 2008 07:35:18 +0000

[...] “Jeez, I just noticed – northern Canada has reverted back to what it was on Monday. WTF??” (Post [...]

By: Bob Koss

Bob Koss — Fri, 14 Nov 2008 05:04:30 +0000

This might be slightly off-topic since it’s not about the current year of data, but it certainly is a curiosity. Move if you think appropriate.

The GISS Australian data that is missing for 2006-07 is so standardized it is hard to believe.

80% of the 43 stations have no annual temperature for 2007 and those stations have the same missing months of data. Jan, Feb, Mar, May. They all have Apr.

2006 has annual temperatures for 80% of the stations, but Oct, Nov, and Dec are missing. The 20% that have no annual temperature are missing almost identical months.

Here is a spreadsheet for Australia 2006-07.

Does anyone know if Australia uniformly shut down most of their network for extended periods over the previous two years?

Steve: Good post. The NA distribution is insane.

By: Dishman

Dishman — Fri, 14 Nov 2008 03:51:25 +0000

I don’t think Gavin has done much to set the tenor.
I believe far more responsibility for that falls to Dr. Hansen.
Perhaps this would be a good time for Gavin to look at the tone set by his boss, and contemplate how that would look to people who don’t think he’s always right. Perhaps he could try to think of himself being on the outside, looking in.

Perhaps he might find some new understanding through this event.

By: ianl

ianl — Fri, 14 Nov 2008 02:51:37 +0000

Re: ianl (#12), Well, there's no discrepancy now on the ground. The night-time temperatures in the Irkutsk region,just one week later, are now down around -25C