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	<title>Comments on: OK, What Caused the Problem?</title>
	<atom:link href="http://climateaudit.org/2008/11/16/ok-what-caused-the-problem/feed/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>http://climateaudit.org/2008/11/16/ok-what-caused-the-problem/</link>
	<description>by Steve McIntyre</description>
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		<title>By: GISS: Warmest March ever in Finland &#171; Climate Audit</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2008/11/16/ok-what-caused-the-problem/#comment-227823</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[GISS: Warmest March ever in Finland &#171; Climate Audit]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 15 Apr 2010 14:58:37 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=4370#comment-227823</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[[...] Warmest March ever in&#160;Finland  A year and half ago Steve  recalled some encounters with NASA GISS. One could imagine that after all that embarrassment the quality [...]]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] Warmest March ever in&nbsp;Finland  A year and half ago Steve  recalled some encounters with NASA GISS. One could imagine that after all that embarrassment the quality [...]</p>
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		<title>By: The End of CRUTEM? &#171; Climate Audit</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2008/11/16/ok-what-caused-the-problem/#comment-218520</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[The End of CRUTEM? &#171; Climate Audit]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 30 Jan 2010 21:24:51 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=4370#comment-218520</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[[...] again in a couple of 2008 posts here here noting (in this case GISS&#8217;) inability to locate Canadian station data: How hard can it be to [...]]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] again in a couple of 2008 posts here here noting (in this case GISS&#8217;) inability to locate Canadian station data: How hard can it be to [...]</p>
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		<title>By: M. Simon</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2008/11/16/ok-what-caused-the-problem/#comment-217915</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[M. Simon]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 26 Jan 2010 08:04:08 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=4370#comment-217915</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[&lt;i&gt;Hansen and the IPCC use something called the “Bern Carbon Model”. This is a bizarre mathematical construct which figures that part of the CO2 decays with a short e-folding time (2.5 years), part of it decays at a medium e-folding time (18 years), and a small amount of it has an e-folding time of 171 years! I don’t know how they figure that happens in the real world (how does a molecule know?), but that’s how the math works.&lt;/i&gt;

This is a rather common situation in electronics which is called capacitor soakage. It is not bizarre at all in some situations. For first order approximations it is seldom used. It does come up in sample and hold circuits where the sample time is short and the hold time is very long. Depending on capacitor type and the times involved it can be a non-issue or it can ruin your month.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><i>Hansen and the IPCC use something called the “Bern Carbon Model”. This is a bizarre mathematical construct which figures that part of the CO2 decays with a short e-folding time (2.5 years), part of it decays at a medium e-folding time (18 years), and a small amount of it has an e-folding time of 171 years! I don’t know how they figure that happens in the real world (how does a molecule know?), but that’s how the math works.</i></p>
<p>This is a rather common situation in electronics which is called capacitor soakage. It is not bizarre at all in some situations. For first order approximations it is seldom used. It does come up in sample and hold circuits where the sample time is short and the hold time is very long. Depending on capacitor type and the times involved it can be a non-issue or it can ruin your month.</p>
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		<title>By: Deep Climate</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2008/11/16/ok-what-caused-the-problem/#comment-168369</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Deep Climate]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 23 Nov 2008 18:25:59 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=4370#comment-168369</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Finland - summer 2008 (again divide by 10 for actual)
StaionID____	Jun	Jul	Aug	Name
61402836000	108	134	102	SODANKYLA
61402869000	110	130	100	KUUSAMO
61402875000	122	148	126	OULU
61402897000	120	142	119	KAJAANI
61402929000	129	157	130	JOENSUU
61402935000	127	150	125	JYVASKYLA
61402958000	136	163	141	LAPPEENRANTA
61402963000	138	163	140	JOKIOINEN
61402972000	145	170	145	TURKU
61402974000	145	173	148	HELSINKI/SEUTULA

Speculation:
Perhaps the bug in averaging module manifests on a particular situation in the data (perhaps missing records), but disappears with later datasets with more complete data. Or ... the bug has been fixed but averaging has not been redone as far back as March 2008.

Since GHCN continues to update past records as new data arrives, at least some of the past monthly averages have to be redone each month. I don&#039;t know whether this done only for stations flagged with new data or globally, and so far, I haven&#039;t seen this level of detail in the NCDC documentation.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Finland &#8211; summer 2008 (again divide by 10 for actual)<br />
StaionID____	Jun	Jul	Aug	Name<br />
61402836000	108	134	102	SODANKYLA<br />
61402869000	110	130	100	KUUSAMO<br />
61402875000	122	148	126	OULU<br />
61402897000	120	142	119	KAJAANI<br />
61402929000	129	157	130	JOENSUU<br />
61402935000	127	150	125	JYVASKYLA<br />
61402958000	136	163	141	LAPPEENRANTA<br />
61402963000	138	163	140	JOKIOINEN<br />
61402972000	145	170	145	TURKU<br />
61402974000	145	173	148	HELSINKI/SEUTULA</p>
<p>Speculation:<br />
Perhaps the bug in averaging module manifests on a particular situation in the data (perhaps missing records), but disappears with later datasets with more complete data. Or &#8230; the bug has been fixed but averaging has not been redone as far back as March 2008.</p>
<p>Since GHCN continues to update past records as new data arrives, at least some of the past monthly averages have to be redone each month. I don&#8217;t know whether this done only for stations flagged with new data or globally, and so far, I haven&#8217;t seen this level of detail in the NCDC documentation.</p>
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	<item>
		<title>By: Deep Climate</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2008/11/16/ok-what-caused-the-problem/#comment-168368</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Deep Climate]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 23 Nov 2008 09:06:26 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=4370#comment-168368</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I did a quick check on the latest GHCN monthly dataset (v2.mean.Z archived today)

I sorted the 800 stations that had data for all 10 months and checked for Mar-Apr and Sep-Oct possible carryovers (i.e. 0 difference in these months). These three northern Canadian stations are definitely wrong in April (includes Resolute previously found by Steve).

(Reminder: Divide by 10 to get actual temp averages, i.e. -286 = -28.6)

StationID__ Name_________          Jan  Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul  Aug	Sep  Oct
403 71081 HALL BEACH,N. -286 -366 &lt;strong&gt;-308 -308&lt;/strong&gt;  -36  16  59   38  -2  -67
403 71926 RESOLUTE,N.W -295 -345 &lt;strong&gt;-313 -313&lt;/strong&gt;  -30	 52 134	 104 23	-38
403 71924 BAKER LAKE,N -317 -351 &lt;strong&gt;-322 -322&lt;/strong&gt; -73	21	53	23	-50	-108

These two are possible carryover errors in Oct., but these would need to be confirmed by actual calculation of the avarage from station data

309	84628	LIMA-CALLAO/A	225	230	237	203	174	177	186	177	&lt;strong&gt;175	175&lt;/strong&gt;
207	42933	AKOLA (India)...	228	227	292	325	347	311	283	273	&lt;strong&gt;276	276&lt;/strong&gt;

After that there are about a dozen &quot;zero&quot; difference records that are likely chance occurrences in the tropics, e.g.:
149	63862	DODOMA (Tanz.) 238	224	&lt;strong&gt;220	220 &lt;/strong&gt;215	200	198	208	220	244

I haven&#039;t checked all the months, but I did notice that the Finland July-August carryover error appeared to be gone.

Tentative conclusions:
- The &quot;carryover&quot; error appears to occur in clusters within countries.
- There are still some such errors in the 2008 record, but most likely a small number of them, and the effect is probably insubstantial for the most part (but of course needs to be fixed)
- Any fix in averaging should be applied to all 2008 data, and previous years should perhaps be examined (I&#039;ll look at 2007 when I have a chance)
- the sparse northern stations may have an upward effect on the April anomaly when corrected.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I did a quick check on the latest GHCN monthly dataset (v2.mean.Z archived today)</p>
<p>I sorted the 800 stations that had data for all 10 months and checked for Mar-Apr and Sep-Oct possible carryovers (i.e. 0 difference in these months). These three northern Canadian stations are definitely wrong in April (includes Resolute previously found by Steve).</p>
<p>(Reminder: Divide by 10 to get actual temp averages, i.e. -286 = -28.6)</p>
<p>StationID__ Name_________          Jan  Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul  Aug	Sep  Oct<br />
403 71081 HALL BEACH,N. -286 -366 <strong>-308 -308</strong>  -36  16  59   38  -2  -67<br />
403 71926 RESOLUTE,N.W -295 -345 <strong>-313 -313</strong>  -30	 52 134	 104 23	-38<br />
403 71924 BAKER LAKE,N -317 -351 <strong>-322 -322</strong> -73	21	53	23	-50	-108</p>
<p>These two are possible carryover errors in Oct., but these would need to be confirmed by actual calculation of the avarage from station data</p>
<p>309	84628	LIMA-CALLAO/A	225	230	237	203	174	177	186	177	<strong>175	175</strong><br />
207	42933	AKOLA (India)&#8230;	228	227	292	325	347	311	283	273	<strong>276	276</strong></p>
<p>After that there are about a dozen &#8220;zero&#8221; difference records that are likely chance occurrences in the tropics, e.g.:<br />
149	63862	DODOMA (Tanz.) 238	224	<strong>220	220 </strong>215	200	198	208	220	244</p>
<p>I haven&#8217;t checked all the months, but I did notice that the Finland July-August carryover error appeared to be gone.</p>
<p>Tentative conclusions:<br />
- The &#8220;carryover&#8221; error appears to occur in clusters within countries.<br />
- There are still some such errors in the 2008 record, but most likely a small number of them, and the effect is probably insubstantial for the most part (but of course needs to be fixed)<br />
- Any fix in averaging should be applied to all 2008 data, and previous years should perhaps be examined (I&#8217;ll look at 2007 when I have a chance)<br />
- the sparse northern stations may have an upward effect on the April anomaly when corrected.</p>
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		<title>By: Jonathan Schafer</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2008/11/16/ok-what-caused-the-problem/#comment-168367</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Jonathan Schafer]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 20 Nov 2008 02:07:09 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=4370#comment-168367</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Re: &lt;a href=&quot;#comment-312578&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;John A (#155)&lt;/a&gt;,

Steve and Anthony were also mentioned the other day on the Mark Levin show, based on the Times article.  They were referenced indirectly on the Glenn Beck show as well.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Re: <a href="#comment-312578" rel="nofollow">John A (#155)</a>,</p>
<p>Steve and Anthony were also mentioned the other day on the Mark Levin show, based on the Times article.  They were referenced indirectly on the Glenn Beck show as well.</p>
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		<title>By: A discussion about global warming &#171; Fabius Maximus</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2008/11/16/ok-what-caused-the-problem/#comment-168366</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[A discussion about global warming &#171; Fabius Maximus]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 20 Nov 2008 00:04:14 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=4370#comment-168366</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[[...] system vital to climate-related public policy. However, events have shown this to be false (see this, for example). I doubt lack of funding is the problem, given the relatively tiny sums [...]]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] system vital to climate-related public policy. However, events have shown this to be false (see this, for example). I doubt lack of funding is the problem, given the relatively tiny sums [...]</p>
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		<title>By: Lucy Skywalker</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2008/11/16/ok-what-caused-the-problem/#comment-168365</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Lucy Skywalker]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 19 Nov 2008 23:20:06 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=4370#comment-168365</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[sorry Steve, guess I started the CO2 residence stuff by drawing attention to Criton. I&#039;ve started a thread on this in our forum &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.greenworldtrust.org.uk/Forum/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?t=89&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;here&lt;/a&gt; and though I cannot start with &quot;the standard papers&quot; unless people list them, I&#039;m interested in trying to understand the process better.
&lt;strong&gt;
Steve&lt;/strong&gt;: I&#039;ve not followed the topic, so you&#039;ll have to research the issue.  I&#039;m pretty sure that Bert Bolin&#039;s claim to fame were a couple of papers in the 1960s purporting to explain how the atmosphere could build up CO2 - I&#039;d suggest fully understanding his viewpoint. The critics may or may not be right, but be fair about it.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>sorry Steve, guess I started the CO2 residence stuff by drawing attention to Criton. I&#8217;ve started a thread on this in our forum <a href="http://www.greenworldtrust.org.uk/Forum/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?t=89" rel="nofollow">here</a> and though I cannot start with &#8220;the standard papers&#8221; unless people list them, I&#8217;m interested in trying to understand the process better.<br />
<strong><br />
Steve</strong>: I&#8217;ve not followed the topic, so you&#8217;ll have to research the issue.  I&#8217;m pretty sure that Bert Bolin&#8217;s claim to fame were a couple of papers in the 1960s purporting to explain how the atmosphere could build up CO2 &#8211; I&#8217;d suggest fully understanding his viewpoint. The critics may or may not be right, but be fair about it.</p>
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		<title>By: John A</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2008/11/16/ok-what-caused-the-problem/#comment-168364</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[John A]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 19 Nov 2008 23:10:21 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=4370#comment-168364</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The Register has this story (and mentions both Anthony and Steve): http://www.theregister.co.uk/2008/11/19/nasa_giss_cockup_catalog/]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The Register has this story (and mentions both Anthony and Steve): <a href="http://www.theregister.co.uk/2008/11/19/nasa_giss_cockup_catalog/" rel="nofollow">http://www.theregister.co.uk/2008/11/19/nasa_giss_cockup_catalog/</a></p>
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		<title>By: Hu McCulloch</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2008/11/16/ok-what-caused-the-problem/#comment-168363</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Hu McCulloch]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 19 Nov 2008 21:40:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=4370#comment-168363</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Re # 128, 132, &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/2008/oct/global.html&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;NCDC/NOAA&lt;/a&gt; is still (Wednesday) sticking by their story of Monday that Oct 2002 has the warmest land temperatures in 129 years (+1.12 dC), with the NH 3rd warmest at +1.14 dC and SH 2nd warmest at +1.06 dC.

Are they using the invalid data GISS got from them, or are these figures based on corrected data??

If the former, are there invalid data from the SH as well as NH causing both hemispheres to appear spuriously warm?  I thought the GISS/CRU problem was concentrated in the NH.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Re # 128, 132, <a href="http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/2008/oct/global.html" rel="nofollow">NCDC/NOAA</a> is still (Wednesday) sticking by their story of Monday that Oct 2002 has the warmest land temperatures in 129 years (+1.12 dC), with the NH 3rd warmest at +1.14 dC and SH 2nd warmest at +1.06 dC.</p>
<p>Are they using the invalid data GISS got from them, or are these figures based on corrected data??</p>
<p>If the former, are there invalid data from the SH as well as NH causing both hemispheres to appear spuriously warm?  I thought the GISS/CRU problem was concentrated in the NH.</p>
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