Comments on: Submitted Article on Tropical Troposphere Trends

By: Santer's Boss Seeks to "Clarify Mis-Impressions" « Climate Audit

Santer's Boss Seeks to "Clarify Mis-Impressions" « Climate Audit — Mon, 30 May 2011 21:34:01 +0000

[...] Jan 26, Ross and I submitted an article on Santer et al 2008, noted up the next day here ; I reported in the post that our submission included comments on the data refusal. On January 27, I [...]

By: Connolley co-author: “Unfortunately we have deleted all the NetCDF files…” « Climate Audit

Sat, 04 Dec 2010 18:16:03 +0000

[...] I recounted this refusal and the progress of several FOI requests in several contemporary posts here here here and here. [...]

By: Obama opens his Administration with a powerful and important action « Fabius Maximus

Wed, 04 Feb 2009 08:16:19 +0000

[...] Climate Audit today, Steve McIntyrewrites about getting data about the Santer article: With all the problems for the new US [...]

By: Stuart Harmon

Stuart Harmon — Thu, 29 Jan 2009 22:21:17 +0000

The year is 2025 there’s been a great deal of wobble tilt and solar activity all at once.
A man is looking for a bar in Antarctica when he comes across a sign outside a pub :-

“A pint
A pie
and a Friendly Word”

This seems fine so in he goes.

Customer: “A pint please”

Customer: “I’ll also have a pie”

Silence

Customer: “Landlord what about the Friendly Word”

Landlord: “Don’t eat the pie”

By: David Jay

David Jay — Thu, 29 Jan 2009 20:30:53 +0000

A REAL programmer can write FORTRAN in any language!

(quote from: “Real Programmers Don’t Do Pascal”)

By: Steve McIntyre

Steve McIntyre — Thu, 29 Jan 2009 18:21:29 +0000

Roman, I agree with your diagnosis. Here’s how I went about getting the results. There’s a little more structure in Model than you may be using. Each item has a useful name and is a time series, not just a matrix. Also sapply and tapply are really elegant R functions for ragged arrays that take a little getting used to. The Team uses Fortran do loops even in R. (It’s like they speak R with a heavy accent).

id=names(Model[[1]])
test=sapply(id,function(x) strsplit(x,”/”)[[1]])
Info.Model=data.frame(model=test[1,],run=test[2,])
row.names(Info.Model)=1:49

h=function(A) {
temp=(time(A)>=1979)& (time(A)<2000)
fm=lm(A[temp,"TROP"]~A[temp,"RTIME"])
h=fm$coef[2];
h}

Info.Model$trend_T2=sapply(Model[[1]],h)
Info.Model$trend_T2LT=sapply(Model[["T2LT"]],h)

Info=data.frame(model=unique(Info.Model$model))
Info$trend_T2=tapply(Info.Model$trend_T2,Info.Model$model,mean)
Info$trend_T2LT=tapply(Info.Model$trend_T2LT,Info.Model$model,mean)

SANTER TABLE 1 #1. Santer 2008 Table 1
loc=”http://data.climateaudit.org/data/models/santer_2008_table1.dat”
santer=read.table(loc,skip=1)
names(santer)=c(“item”,”layer”,”trend”,”se”,”sd”,”r1″,”neff”)
row.names(santer)=paste(santer[,1],santer[,2],sep=”_”)
santer=santer[,3:ncol(santer)]

rbind(10*apply(Info[,2:3],2,sd),
santer[c(16,12),1])
# trend_T2 trend_T2LT
#[1,] 0.09778996 0.09208094
#[2,] 0.09800000 0.09200000

rbind(10*apply(Info[,2:3],2,mean),
santer[c(15,11),1])
# trend_T2 trend_T2LT
#[1,] 0.1992421 0.2147754
#[2,] 0.1990000 0.2150000

By: RomanM

RomanM — Thu, 29 Jan 2009 17:36:42 +0000

I have been able to replicate the values obtained by Santer in Table I for the Multi-model means and the Inter-model SDs for both the T2 and the T2LT. These are calculated simply by first finding the slopes for the 49 runs, then by calculating the average for each of the 19 models from which the runs are taken and finally taking the average of the latter 19 results (as advertised in the paper), The SDs are the sample variance of the 19 model averages.

The groups are given (using the notation and group order in the paper in Figure 3A) by the script:

modgrp = c(12,1,1,1,1,1,13,14,15,15,15,2,2,2,3,3,3,17,17,4,4,4,4,4,5,
5,5,5,5,10,11,16,16,16,18,19,7,6,6,6,8,8,8,8,8,9,9,9,9)

labs =c(“CCSM3.0″,”GFDL-CM2.0″,”GFDL-CM2.1″,”GISS-EH”,”GISS-ER”,
“MIROC3.2(medres)”,”MIROC3.2(hires)”,”MRI-CGCM2.3.2″,”PCM”,
“UKMO-HadCM3″,”UKMO-HadGEM1″,”CCCma-CGCM3.1(T47)”,”CNRM-CM3″,
“CSIRO-Mk3.0″,”ECHAM5/MPI-OM”,”FGOALS-g1.0″,”GISS-AOM”,”INM-CM3.0″,”IPSL-CM4″)

modgrp = factor(modgrp,labels=labs)

My scripts for extracting 1979 to 1999 and getting the regression coefficients were a bit clumsy so I won’t post them.

By: Steve McIntyre

Steve McIntyre — Thu, 29 Jan 2009 16:58:13 +0000

Here are values from the original data. The jump up occurs precisely at 1900.0 – sort of a century version of Y2K . The down draft occurs precisely at 1960. I wonder how they do that.

478 1899.7500 1197.0000 -1.1508 -1.1220 -1.1796 -1.0806 -0.8283 -1.3482 -0.5948 -0.8760 -1.5586 -1.4458
479 1899.8334 1198.0000 -1.1223 -1.0900 -1.1544 -0.2054 -1.1610 -1.2751 -0.8686 -1.0499 -1.3076 -1.2619
480 1899.9166 1199.0000 -0.9937 -0.9119 -1.0754 0.4406 -1.0786 -1.1522 -0.7002 -1.0025 -1.2294 -1.1892
481 1900.0000 1200.0000 8.8407 8.4133 9.2676 3.4258 6.6583 11.0346 4.0506 7.8419 11.7094 11.7167
482 1900.0834 1201.0000 9.1429 8.7014 9.5840 4.3542 6.5638 11.4312 4.8833 8.1336 11.9055 11.9967
483 1900.1666 1202.0000 9.4028 8.9432 9.8619 4.0595 7.1663 11.5526 5.7646 8.3075 12.0979 12.2001
484 1900.2500 1203.0000 9.5233 9.1686 9.8774 4.4947 7.4680 11.6661 6.1120 8.2685 12.0644 12.1947
485 1900.3334 1204.0000 9.6344 9.6008 9.6673 5.6921 8.1642 11.7000 6.0567 8.2723 11.6562 12.0354
486 1900.4166 1205.0000 9.7839 10.0083 9.5591 6.0204 9.0062 11.8106 6.5351 8.3135 11.2813 11.8192
487 1900.5000 1206.0000 9.7135 10.0107 9.4157 6.0511 9.1357 11.7125 6.5922 7.8483 11.3199 11.7708

By: Steve McIntyre

Steve McIntyre — Thu, 29 Jan 2009 16:41:37 +0000

Nice. I didn’t know about the pdf tool either; that’s cool. The labeling can be improved though. tam2 and tam6 are the “levels” T2 and T2LT and not the “models”.
names(Model) #[1] “T2″ “T2LT”

My explanation of my collation wasn’t very clear. The 7th data set in Model[[1]] also has a name:

names(Model[[1]])[7]
#[1] “CNRM3.0/20c3m_run1/Xy/tam2_CNRM3.0_20c3m_run1_mm_xy_wf_r0000_0000.nc”

So you’ve plotted (I think) model CNRM3.0 run 1 for level T2. The model can be parsed from the name string.

model_id=strsplit(names(Model[[1]])[7] ,”/”)[[1]][1] #”CNRM3.0″
run_id= strsplit(names(Model[[1]])[7] ,”/”)[[1]][2] # “20c3m_run1″

By: RomanM

RomanM — Thu, 29 Jan 2009 12:35:15 +0000

I neglected to mention the other oddity. Run 31 contains a bunch of -999.90 (obviously missing values) in 1901 for both Model[1] and Model[2]. The graph makes it obvious (modplot(1,31)).