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	<title>Comments on: Trouet et al 2009: “Scuppering the Deniers”</title>
	<atom:link href="http://climateaudit.org/2009/04/03/trouet-et-al-2009-the-medieval-nao/feed/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>http://climateaudit.org/2009/04/03/trouet-et-al-2009-the-medieval-nao/</link>
	<description>by Steve McIntyre</description>
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		<title>By: Data Archiving for Trouet-Esper &#171; Climate Audit</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2009/04/03/trouet-et-al-2009-the-medieval-nao/#comment-237718</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Data Archiving for Trouet-Esper &#171; Climate Audit]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 04 Aug 2010 14:09:25 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=5647#comment-237718</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[[...] any data. Discussion began here on April 3 in the comments here and later that day I posted on it here observing: Unfortunately, the authors failed to provide any digital data citations (see for example [...]]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] any data. Discussion began here on April 3 in the comments here and later that day I posted on it here observing: Unfortunately, the authors failed to provide any digital data citations (see for example [...]</p>
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		<title>By: Alex Atkinson</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2009/04/03/trouet-et-al-2009-the-medieval-nao/#comment-234784</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Alex Atkinson]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 08 Jul 2010 19:58:15 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=5647#comment-234784</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I’ve been re-working speleothem data from a number of locations and comparing them to solar activity proxies for the past ~2000 years. Spannagel is an *extremely* unusual case and I am unsure as to the quality of this temperature reconstruction. If you re-work their data using the above link, and compare this to solar activity (which is availabe at radiocarbon.org – pref. use the intcal04 data set), there seems to be a 50 year shift in the solar activity data. For example, if we look at the Dalton Minimum, it appears to occur around ~1750 at Spannagel, whilst in the solar record it’s known to have onset around 1790. The whole tuning of this record is suspect and the original paper poorly explains how this record has been produced.

If anyone can explain to me why I am getting this, and how they have actually produced the solar/temperature link (with a backward sensitivity at that) i&#039;d be very appreciative.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I’ve been re-working speleothem data from a number of locations and comparing them to solar activity proxies for the past ~2000 years. Spannagel is an *extremely* unusual case and I am unsure as to the quality of this temperature reconstruction. If you re-work their data using the above link, and compare this to solar activity (which is availabe at radiocarbon.org – pref. use the intcal04 data set), there seems to be a 50 year shift in the solar activity data. For example, if we look at the Dalton Minimum, it appears to occur around ~1750 at Spannagel, whilst in the solar record it’s known to have onset around 1790. The whole tuning of this record is suspect and the original paper poorly explains how this record has been produced.</p>
<p>If anyone can explain to me why I am getting this, and how they have actually produced the solar/temperature link (with a backward sensitivity at that) i&#8217;d be very appreciative.</p>
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		<title>By: john mathon</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2009/04/03/trouet-et-al-2009-the-medieval-nao/#comment-181418</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[john mathon]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 13 Apr 2009 17:53:03 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=5647#comment-181418</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The presumption of the article seems to be that the MWP was mainly a regional phenomenon.   Are there other instances of hundred to 2 hundred year periods where &quot;regions&quot; of the world have experienced a large temperature increase or decrease where the rest of the world is unaffected?   I find this bizarre that somehow there would be this region that experienced much warmer temperatures and the rest of the world was unchanged or maybe dropped in temperature over a period as large as 1 or 2 hundred years.   I am not familiar with any other such phenomenon ever having occurred.   Does this strike anyone else as completely bizarre?]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The presumption of the article seems to be that the MWP was mainly a regional phenomenon.   Are there other instances of hundred to 2 hundred year periods where &#8220;regions&#8221; of the world have experienced a large temperature increase or decrease where the rest of the world is unaffected?   I find this bizarre that somehow there would be this region that experienced much warmer temperatures and the rest of the world was unchanged or maybe dropped in temperature over a period as large as 1 or 2 hundred years.   I am not familiar with any other such phenomenon ever having occurred.   Does this strike anyone else as completely bizarre?</p>
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		<title>By: Corey S.</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2009/04/03/trouet-et-al-2009-the-medieval-nao/#comment-181417</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Corey S.]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 10 Apr 2009 18:24:17 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=5647#comment-181417</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[&lt;blockquote&gt;I admit I don&#039;t have access to the actual Science paper&lt;/blockquote&gt;


Trouet, V, Esper J, Graham NE, Baker A, Scourse JD, Frank DC (2009) Persistent positive North Atlantic Oscillation mode dominated the Medieval Climate Anomaly. Science 324, 78-80. (&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.wsl.ch/staff/jan.esper/publications/Trouet_2009_Science.pdf&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;pdf&lt;/a&gt;)

Found &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.wsl.ch/staff/jan.esper/publications.html&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;here&lt;/a&gt;.

Not sure if this has already been supplied from looking over the thread, but here it is.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<blockquote><p>I admit I don&#8217;t have access to the actual Science paper</p></blockquote>
<p>Trouet, V, Esper J, Graham NE, Baker A, Scourse JD, Frank DC (2009) Persistent positive North Atlantic Oscillation mode dominated the Medieval Climate Anomaly. Science 324, 78-80. (<a href="http://www.wsl.ch/staff/jan.esper/publications/Trouet_2009_Science.pdf" rel="nofollow">pdf</a>)</p>
<p>Found <a href="http://www.wsl.ch/staff/jan.esper/publications.html" rel="nofollow">here</a>.</p>
<p>Not sure if this has already been supplied from looking over the thread, but here it is.</p>
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		<title>By: bender</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2009/04/03/trouet-et-al-2009-the-medieval-nao/#comment-181416</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[bender]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 07 Apr 2009 17:40:06 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=5647#comment-181416</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn16892-natural-mechanism-for-medieval-warming-discovered.html?DCMP=OTC-rss&amp;nsref=online-news&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;New Scientist blurb on Trouet&lt;/a&gt;

&lt;blockquote&gt;Mann is also concerned that the dominance of medieval La Niña conditions now indicated by Trouet&#039;s work might make it more likely that the current man-made warming could also put the El Niño system back into a La Niña mode&lt;/blockquote&gt;

Wait a sec. I thought they reconstructed NAO, not ENSO. How did ENSO get in here?

&lt;blockquote&gt;El Niño and the NAO are connected by a process called thermohaline circulation, which drives the &quot;ocean conveyor belt&quot; that shuttles sea water of different density around the world&#039;s oceans.&lt;/blockquote&gt;
Oh. No reason to restrict ourselves to discussing NAO when we can extrapolate by looking on down the teleconnective line. Another pea under thimble game.

&lt;blockquote&gt;According to Trouet, a Pacific La Niña mode and a positive NAO mode could have reinforced each other in a positive feedback loop – and this could explain the stability of the medieval climate anomaly.&lt;/blockquote&gt;

But did Trouet show this in this paper? Or is she theorizing, extrapolating beyond the data? Or was she misquoted/quoted out of context. Val?

&lt;blockquote&gt;Mann is also concerned that the dominance of medieval La Niña conditions now indicated by Trouet&#039;s work might make it more likely that the current man-made warming could also put the El Niño system back into a La Niña mode, although &lt;strong&gt;most climate models so far had predicted the opposite&lt;/strong&gt;.&lt;/blockquote&gt;

The perfect rescue device. Models that are sufficiently vague that anything is consistent with them. Newflash: This is not a proof by lack of contradiction, guys. It&#039;s called a poor hypothesis test. There&#039;s a difference.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn16892-natural-mechanism-for-medieval-warming-discovered.html?DCMP=OTC-rss&amp;nsref=online-news" rel="nofollow">New Scientist blurb on Trouet</a></p>
<blockquote><p>Mann is also concerned that the dominance of medieval La Niña conditions now indicated by Trouet&#8217;s work might make it more likely that the current man-made warming could also put the El Niño system back into a La Niña mode</p></blockquote>
<p>Wait a sec. I thought they reconstructed NAO, not ENSO. How did ENSO get in here?</p>
<blockquote><p>El Niño and the NAO are connected by a process called thermohaline circulation, which drives the &#8220;ocean conveyor belt&#8221; that shuttles sea water of different density around the world&#8217;s oceans.</p></blockquote>
<p>Oh. No reason to restrict ourselves to discussing NAO when we can extrapolate by looking on down the teleconnective line. Another pea under thimble game.</p>
<blockquote><p>According to Trouet, a Pacific La Niña mode and a positive NAO mode could have reinforced each other in a positive feedback loop – and this could explain the stability of the medieval climate anomaly.</p></blockquote>
<p>But did Trouet show this in this paper? Or is she theorizing, extrapolating beyond the data? Or was she misquoted/quoted out of context. Val?</p>
<blockquote><p>Mann is also concerned that the dominance of medieval La Niña conditions now indicated by Trouet&#8217;s work might make it more likely that the current man-made warming could also put the El Niño system back into a La Niña mode, although <strong>most climate models so far had predicted the opposite</strong>.</p></blockquote>
<p>The perfect rescue device. Models that are sufficiently vague that anything is consistent with them. Newflash: This is not a proof by lack of contradiction, guys. It&#8217;s called a poor hypothesis test. There&#8217;s a difference.</p>
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		<title>By: Heath</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2009/04/03/trouet-et-al-2009-the-medieval-nao/#comment-181415</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Heath]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 07 Apr 2009 02:37:54 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=5647#comment-181415</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[On a sidenote, I also have grave concerns about the mentallity of the masses when it comes to understanding these VERY complex and interracting disciplines. My wife, bless her heart, is convinced the poor polar bears are doomed. Just today I explained (or attempted to) the lagging nature of CO2 vs temperature and she responded with, &quot;well everyone has an opinion&quot;. And that is what this debate IS in the mainstream...a conflict of opinions just like pro life/choice or anything else political. Our media has become so instantaneous that questional reports &quot;du jour&quot; litter our favorite homepage and make headlines on CNN morning shows. They have little factual teeth and lots of entertaining fluff designed for Joe Plumber (sorry Obama). We literally have two, maybe three generations of folks who were indoctrinated into the environmentalist movement as children. When I was in school it was &quot;The ozone layer&quot; and was led to believe that spray-painting a rusty charcoal grill was destroying our world and my sister&#039;s hair-style was the essence of evil. Not to mention the seventies brought is the &quot;global cooling&quot; scare.

It is difficult to find a clear thinking, logical mind who can purely grasp the irony of it all. It is no wonder the AGW train has picked up so much momentum.

Apologies to Mr. McIntyre if I have strayed off topic. I probably never really was On topic. I just appreciate the opportunity to voice my dissenting view as an intelligent, reasonably educated man who&#039;ll never be heard above the voices who would squash it.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>On a sidenote, I also have grave concerns about the mentallity of the masses when it comes to understanding these VERY complex and interracting disciplines. My wife, bless her heart, is convinced the poor polar bears are doomed. Just today I explained (or attempted to) the lagging nature of CO2 vs temperature and she responded with, &#8220;well everyone has an opinion&#8221;. And that is what this debate IS in the mainstream&#8230;a conflict of opinions just like pro life/choice or anything else political. Our media has become so instantaneous that questional reports &#8220;du jour&#8221; litter our favorite homepage and make headlines on CNN morning shows. They have little factual teeth and lots of entertaining fluff designed for Joe Plumber (sorry Obama). We literally have two, maybe three generations of folks who were indoctrinated into the environmentalist movement as children. When I was in school it was &#8220;The ozone layer&#8221; and was led to believe that spray-painting a rusty charcoal grill was destroying our world and my sister&#8217;s hair-style was the essence of evil. Not to mention the seventies brought is the &#8220;global cooling&#8221; scare.</p>
<p>It is difficult to find a clear thinking, logical mind who can purely grasp the irony of it all. It is no wonder the AGW train has picked up so much momentum.</p>
<p>Apologies to Mr. McIntyre if I have strayed off topic. I probably never really was On topic. I just appreciate the opportunity to voice my dissenting view as an intelligent, reasonably educated man who&#8217;ll never be heard above the voices who would squash it.</p>
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		<title>By: Heath</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2009/04/03/trouet-et-al-2009-the-medieval-nao/#comment-181414</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Heath]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 07 Apr 2009 02:16:34 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=5647#comment-181414</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Very interesting website. I am not a scientist in the academic sense but I work in a lab invironment that deals heavily with statistical data. Years ago when I first encountered the famous &quot;hockey stick&quot; graph ie Mann I was taken aback at the fine resolution of the temperature data when coordinated against the very long time axis. If anyone here is familiar with chromatography then you can understand how questionable it is to find significance when data points of interest are so close to baseline &quot;noise&quot;. Indeed, climate fluctuations are an analog phenom and (I should think) subject to the same 3:1 ratio rule that any statistical dataset is.

I do believe this warming period is real. I also believe that the science behind it has unfortunately been poisoned by politicians (ie Gorites) and others who have emotional and financial motivations to see this hysteria through.

I have serious concerns when I see supposed &quot;unbiased peer-reviewed&quot; talking heads claiming the matter is &quot;settled&quot; and practically mocking those who offer counter debate. If I were a research scientist I should think that I would WANT and DESIRE open dialogue, to have my research scrutinized to further bring us to THE TRUTH. Unfortunately the nature of modern science which depends on funding and financial backing from whoever holds a checkbook has placed integrity on the backburner in favor of publication and notoriety.

I apologize if my sarcasm poisons my POV.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Very interesting website. I am not a scientist in the academic sense but I work in a lab invironment that deals heavily with statistical data. Years ago when I first encountered the famous &#8220;hockey stick&#8221; graph ie Mann I was taken aback at the fine resolution of the temperature data when coordinated against the very long time axis. If anyone here is familiar with chromatography then you can understand how questionable it is to find significance when data points of interest are so close to baseline &#8220;noise&#8221;. Indeed, climate fluctuations are an analog phenom and (I should think) subject to the same 3:1 ratio rule that any statistical dataset is.</p>
<p>I do believe this warming period is real. I also believe that the science behind it has unfortunately been poisoned by politicians (ie Gorites) and others who have emotional and financial motivations to see this hysteria through.</p>
<p>I have serious concerns when I see supposed &#8220;unbiased peer-reviewed&#8221; talking heads claiming the matter is &#8220;settled&#8221; and practically mocking those who offer counter debate. If I were a research scientist I should think that I would WANT and DESIRE open dialogue, to have my research scrutinized to further bring us to THE TRUTH. Unfortunately the nature of modern science which depends on funding and financial backing from whoever holds a checkbook has placed integrity on the backburner in favor of publication and notoriety.</p>
<p>I apologize if my sarcasm poisons my POV.</p>
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		<title>By: Henry</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2009/04/03/trouet-et-al-2009-the-medieval-nao/#comment-181413</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Henry]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 07 Apr 2009 00:07:19 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=5647#comment-181413</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Isn&#039;t the 25/50-year issue visually obvious from the chart: there seem to be 17/18/19 or so turning points on each line in a 900 year period. Some reviewers might spot this sort of thing without needing to look at the sources.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Isn&#8217;t the 25/50-year issue visually obvious from the chart: there seem to be 17/18/19 or so turning points on each line in a 900 year period. Some reviewers might spot this sort of thing without needing to look at the sources.</p>
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		<title>By: Andrew</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2009/04/03/trouet-et-al-2009-the-medieval-nao/#comment-181412</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Andrew]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 06 Apr 2009 23:50:04 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=5647#comment-181412</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Re: &lt;a href=&quot;#comment-336386&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;Tolz (#56)&lt;/a&gt;, So true. Sigh.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Re: <a href="#comment-336386" rel="nofollow">Tolz (#56)</a>, So true. Sigh.</p>
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		<title>By: Tolz</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2009/04/03/trouet-et-al-2009-the-medieval-nao/#comment-181411</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Tolz]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 06 Apr 2009 23:43:33 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=5647#comment-181411</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Re: &lt;a href=&quot;#comment-336378&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;Andrew (#55)&lt;/a&gt;,

One doesn&#039;t hear the current state of the climate being referred to as &quot;widespread warming&quot;, very often, IMO.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Re: <a href="#comment-336378" rel="nofollow">Andrew (#55)</a>,</p>
<p>One doesn&#8217;t hear the current state of the climate being referred to as &#8220;widespread warming&#8221;, very often, IMO.</p>
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