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	<title>Comments on: Tropical Troposphere &#8211; March 2009</title>
	<atom:link href="http://climateaudit.org/2009/04/14/tropical-troposphere-march-2009/feed/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>http://climateaudit.org/2009/04/14/tropical-troposphere-march-2009/</link>
	<description>by Steve McIntyre</description>
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		<title>By: Cold Lynx</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2009/04/14/tropical-troposphere-march-2009/#comment-181736</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Cold Lynx]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 02 Oct 2009 15:19:09 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=5756#comment-181736</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Forgot some of the links,  about tide in general,
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tide
Especially Laplace´s tidal equation
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Theory_of_tides#Laplace.27s_tidal_equations]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Forgot some of the links,  about tide in general,<br />
<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tide" rel="nofollow">http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tide</a><br />
Especially Laplace´s tidal equation<br />
<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Theory_of_tides#Laplace.27s_tidal_equations" rel="nofollow">http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Theory_of_tides#Laplace.27s_tidal_equations</a></p>
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		<title>By: Cold Lynx</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2009/04/14/tropical-troposphere-march-2009/#comment-181735</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Cold Lynx]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 02 Oct 2009 12:01:22 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=5756#comment-181735</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[There certainly appears to be a relationship with both MJO and ENSO.
But what drives this waves?
I say tide.

The suns diurnal tide have a the strongest but still weak gravital force impact at sunrise and sunset.
This small but percistant solar gravitation acceleration will in the morning have a horisontal composant that will bring on a small force on everything on the planet. Fluids like air will accelerated horisonatlly. Yes that is wind.
In the morning east going. During the day just little bit less gravitation, and in the evening slow down the wind by a force westwards.
Wind start in the morning continue over the day and slow down in the evening.
Familiar to most of us but we are all thought that this is only by convection.
That is another source but tide is one important as well.
This solar tide accelerate the air up to of about 5 -6 m/s during the day.
And make the wind slow down with about the same figures wind during night time.
MJO travels with about this speed.

With a lunar component will the atmospheric tide change even further.
More wind and by that more evaporation will induce more vapor into the atmosphere. Most important is that the wind will lower static pressure and help tha cloud formation. Vapor that form clouds release a big amount of heat and that is the heating of the trophosphere. Visible in the graphs. High troposheric temperatures in August is a sign of strong tide.
Unfortunatly is this increased cloud formation cooling the earth significantly.

An even moore intresting aspect is the inclination of the horisontal gravital force.
Earth tilt of max 23.5 degrees make the solar tide induced wind will come from south west in the NH summer. And from north west in the NH winter.
The lunar inclination will modify these direction and that have a strong impact of local climate.
A period with less tilt and a lunar tilt not in favor will reduce the south west composant and cool the NH.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>There certainly appears to be a relationship with both MJO and ENSO.<br />
But what drives this waves?<br />
I say tide.</p>
<p>The suns diurnal tide have a the strongest but still weak gravital force impact at sunrise and sunset.<br />
This small but percistant solar gravitation acceleration will in the morning have a horisontal composant that will bring on a small force on everything on the planet. Fluids like air will accelerated horisonatlly. Yes that is wind.<br />
In the morning east going. During the day just little bit less gravitation, and in the evening slow down the wind by a force westwards.<br />
Wind start in the morning continue over the day and slow down in the evening.<br />
Familiar to most of us but we are all thought that this is only by convection.<br />
That is another source but tide is one important as well.<br />
This solar tide accelerate the air up to of about 5 -6 m/s during the day.<br />
And make the wind slow down with about the same figures wind during night time.<br />
MJO travels with about this speed.</p>
<p>With a lunar component will the atmospheric tide change even further.<br />
More wind and by that more evaporation will induce more vapor into the atmosphere. Most important is that the wind will lower static pressure and help tha cloud formation. Vapor that form clouds release a big amount of heat and that is the heating of the trophosphere. Visible in the graphs. High troposheric temperatures in August is a sign of strong tide.<br />
Unfortunatly is this increased cloud formation cooling the earth significantly.</p>
<p>An even moore intresting aspect is the inclination of the horisontal gravital force.<br />
Earth tilt of max 23.5 degrees make the solar tide induced wind will come from south west in the NH summer. And from north west in the NH winter.<br />
The lunar inclination will modify these direction and that have a strong impact of local climate.<br />
A period with less tilt and a lunar tilt not in favor will reduce the south west composant and cool the NH.</p>
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		<title>By: Jonathan Schafer</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2009/04/14/tropical-troposphere-march-2009/#comment-181734</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Jonathan Schafer]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 07 Sep 2009 04:01:59 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=5756#comment-181734</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Re: &lt;a href=&quot;#comment-355331&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;David Smith (#87)&lt;/a&gt;,

Thanks for the graph David.  There certainly appears to be a relationship, but of course, it could also be just that; an appearance only.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Re: <a href="#comment-355331" rel="nofollow">David Smith (#87)</a>,</p>
<p>Thanks for the graph David.  There certainly appears to be a relationship, but of course, it could also be just that; an appearance only.</p>
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		<title>By: David Smith</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2009/04/14/tropical-troposphere-march-2009/#comment-181733</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[David Smith]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 06 Sep 2009 20:25:49 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=5756#comment-181733</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Re #87 I forgot to mention that the ONI plot is shifted to the right by four months (ONI activity preceeds the tropospheric response)]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Re #87 I forgot to mention that the ONI plot is shifted to the right by four months (ONI activity preceeds the tropospheric response)</p>
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		<title>By: David Smith</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2009/04/14/tropical-troposphere-march-2009/#comment-181732</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[David Smith]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 06 Sep 2009 20:23:50 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=5756#comment-181732</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Re #85 Here&#039;s the tropospheric plot plus an ENSO index (ONI, scaled):



There&#039;s a pretty good hint of a troposphere / ENSO relationship, as expected.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Re #85 Here&#8217;s the tropospheric plot plus an ENSO index (ONI, scaled):</p>
<p>There&#8217;s a pretty good hint of a troposphere / ENSO relationship, as expected.</p>
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		<title>By: David Smith</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2009/04/14/tropical-troposphere-march-2009/#comment-181731</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[David Smith]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 06 Sep 2009 19:48:47 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=5756#comment-181731</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Jonathan, I think you are right. In addition to ENSO variation one may see, with imagination, a hint of volcanic dust suppression of temperature in early to mid 2009. But, this is like reading tea leaves or tree rings or silt - caution is needed to avoid bringing ones preconceptions to the effort.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Jonathan, I think you are right. In addition to ENSO variation one may see, with imagination, a hint of volcanic dust suppression of temperature in early to mid 2009. But, this is like reading tea leaves or tree rings or silt &#8211; caution is needed to avoid bringing ones preconceptions to the effort.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>By: Jonathan Schafer</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2009/04/14/tropical-troposphere-march-2009/#comment-181730</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Jonathan Schafer]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 06 Sep 2009 17:13:51 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=5756#comment-181730</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Re: &lt;a href=&quot;#comment-355320&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;David Smith (#83)&lt;/a&gt;,

Haven&#039;t checked for sure, but at first glance, it would also appear that the overall general trend looks to me like it shows the transaition from La Nina to El Nino as well.  Have you overlaid this with an ENSO chart to see if the general upward trends match?]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Re: <a href="#comment-355320" rel="nofollow">David Smith (#83)</a>,</p>
<p>Haven&#8217;t checked for sure, but at first glance, it would also appear that the overall general trend looks to me like it shows the transaition from La Nina to El Nino as well.  Have you overlaid this with an ENSO chart to see if the general upward trends match?</p>
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		<title>By: David Smith</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2009/04/14/tropical-troposphere-march-2009/#comment-181729</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[David Smith]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 06 Sep 2009 16:58:25 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=5756#comment-181729</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[RE #83 An alternate hypothesis is that the base-peak-base behavior reflects tropospheric modes of heat removal efficiency and is not directly related to the amount of heat entering the troposphere from the surface. Dunno.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>RE #83 An alternate hypothesis is that the base-peak-base behavior reflects tropospheric modes of heat removal efficiency and is not directly related to the amount of heat entering the troposphere from the surface. Dunno.</p>
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		<title>By: David Smith</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2009/04/14/tropical-troposphere-march-2009/#comment-181728</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[David Smith]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 06 Sep 2009 16:19:39 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=5756#comment-181728</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The troposphere has ended its rest at +0.15C anomaly and has begun a sharp rise upwards -



The spike is apparently related to MJO behavior in the tropics and, if history holds, should peak (green dot) in the next several weeks at +0.45 to +0.60C, then decline back to a base anomaly for several weeks. We&#039;ll see.

So, the satellite-derived temperature anomaly for September may well exceed the anomaly for August. August had four &quot;peak&quot; days, four &quot;transition&quot; days and the remainder were &quot;base&quot; days around +0.15C. September may see the opposite, with relatively few base and transition days and the remainder in the peak region.

The rather repetitive base-peak-base behavior of the tropospheric temperature is interesting. The spikes represent the removal of a lot of heat from the planet&#039;s surface.  Do the period and amplitude of the spikes vary naturally, and why? How would increased GHG affect this pattern? Does the apparent rapid cooling during the downleg indicate that the tropical upper troposphere (the heat radiator, so to speak) indicate that the upper troposphere has ample ability to radiate away heat even with today&#039;s higher CO2? Many questions to my mind on what seems to me to be an important topic.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The troposphere has ended its rest at +0.15C anomaly and has begun a sharp rise upwards -</p>
<p>The spike is apparently related to MJO behavior in the tropics and, if history holds, should peak (green dot) in the next several weeks at +0.45 to +0.60C, then decline back to a base anomaly for several weeks. We&#8217;ll see.</p>
<p>So, the satellite-derived temperature anomaly for September may well exceed the anomaly for August. August had four &#8220;peak&#8221; days, four &#8220;transition&#8221; days and the remainder were &#8220;base&#8221; days around +0.15C. September may see the opposite, with relatively few base and transition days and the remainder in the peak region.</p>
<p>The rather repetitive base-peak-base behavior of the tropospheric temperature is interesting. The spikes represent the removal of a lot of heat from the planet&#8217;s surface.  Do the period and amplitude of the spikes vary naturally, and why? How would increased GHG affect this pattern? Does the apparent rapid cooling during the downleg indicate that the tropical upper troposphere (the heat radiator, so to speak) indicate that the upper troposphere has ample ability to radiate away heat even with today&#8217;s higher CO2? Many questions to my mind on what seems to me to be an important topic.</p>
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		<title>By: David Smith</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2009/04/14/tropical-troposphere-march-2009/#comment-181727</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[David Smith]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 30 Aug 2009 02:13:39 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=5756#comment-181727</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Re #80  The tropospheric temperature leveled at +0.1 to +0.15 versus the forecasted 0 in #80:



The question is, when it breaks from this level, will it break sharply higher or sharply lower?]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Re #80  The tropospheric temperature leveled at +0.1 to +0.15 versus the forecasted 0 in #80:</p>
<p>The question is, when it breaks from this level, will it break sharply higher or sharply lower?</p>
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