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	<title>Comments on: Pielke Jr on Models</title>
	<atom:link href="http://climateaudit.org/2009/06/16/pielke-jr-on-models/feed/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>http://climateaudit.org/2009/06/16/pielke-jr-on-models/</link>
	<description>by Steve McIntyre</description>
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		<title>By: pete m</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2009/06/16/pielke-jr-on-models/#comment-185654</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[pete m]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 23 Jun 2009 01:24:20 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=6298#comment-185654</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Steve, Pielke Jr has moved his site:

&lt;a href=&quot;http://rogerpielkejr.blogspot.com/&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;linky&lt;/a&gt;]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Steve, Pielke Jr has moved his site:</p>
<p><a href="http://rogerpielkejr.blogspot.com/" rel="nofollow">linky</a></p>
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		<title>By: Gerald Machnee</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2009/06/16/pielke-jr-on-models/#comment-185653</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Gerald Machnee]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 21 Jun 2009 14:58:33 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=6298#comment-185653</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Re: &lt;a href=&quot;#comment-346451&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;gah (#7)&lt;/a&gt;,

&lt;blockquote&gt;Very understandable as the climate change deniers have no model of their own and they probably wouldn&#039;t even know where to start.&lt;/blockquote&gt;
&quot;Climate change deniers&quot; do not want a model, they just want facts. One would be the MEASUREMENT of the temperature increase or decrease caused by greenhouse gases.
Contributors here are not &quot;deniers&quot; but &quot;questioners&quot; and researchers who seek answers. There are many knowledgeable contributors to this weblog, likely a higher number than most other blogs.
Would you say that the statistical connection between CO2 and temperature is &quot;inane&quot;?]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Re: <a href="#comment-346451" rel="nofollow">gah (#7)</a>,</p>
<blockquote><p>Very understandable as the climate change deniers have no model of their own and they probably wouldn&#8217;t even know where to start.</p></blockquote>
<p>&#8220;Climate change deniers&#8221; do not want a model, they just want facts. One would be the MEASUREMENT of the temperature increase or decrease caused by greenhouse gases.<br />
Contributors here are not &#8220;deniers&#8221; but &#8220;questioners&#8221; and researchers who seek answers. There are many knowledgeable contributors to this weblog, likely a higher number than most other blogs.<br />
Would you say that the statistical connection between CO2 and temperature is &#8220;inane&#8221;?</p>
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		<title>By: Steve McIntyre</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2009/06/16/pielke-jr-on-models/#comment-185652</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Steve McIntyre]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 20 Jun 2009 22:34:10 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=6298#comment-185652</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Re: &lt;a href=&quot;#comment-346451&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;gah (#7)&lt;/a&gt;,

The greater part of the commentary at this site pertains to proxy reconstructions, rather than climate models. Proxy reconstructions of the Mannian type or the Steig climate reconstruction rely entirely on statistical correlation.

If you choose to regard Steig et al 2009, Mann et al 2008 and similar literature as built on &quot;inane statistical correlations&quot;, then you are obviously free to do so and you will find that few readers here will disagree with you.

I&#039;m not sure what point you believe that Hendry was &quot;missing&quot;. Hendry&#039;s article was written in the early 1980s, long before IPCC, and addressed the problem of spurious correlation and the difficulty that it presented for standard statistical tests. Hendry is a distinguished econometrician and your name-calling here shows more about you than about him.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Re: <a href="#comment-346451" rel="nofollow">gah (#7)</a>,</p>
<p>The greater part of the commentary at this site pertains to proxy reconstructions, rather than climate models. Proxy reconstructions of the Mannian type or the Steig climate reconstruction rely entirely on statistical correlation.</p>
<p>If you choose to regard Steig et al 2009, Mann et al 2008 and similar literature as built on &#8220;inane statistical correlations&#8221;, then you are obviously free to do so and you will find that few readers here will disagree with you.</p>
<p>I&#8217;m not sure what point you believe that Hendry was &#8220;missing&#8221;. Hendry&#8217;s article was written in the early 1980s, long before IPCC, and addressed the problem of spurious correlation and the difficulty that it presented for standard statistical tests. Hendry is a distinguished econometrician and your name-calling here shows more about you than about him.</p>
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		<title>By: gah</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2009/06/16/pielke-jr-on-models/#comment-185651</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[gah]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 20 Jun 2009 22:07:52 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=6298#comment-185651</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I noticed people haven&#039;t commented too much on this thread. Very understandable as the climate change deniers have no model of their own and they probably wouldn&#039;t even know where to start.

BTW, UK rainfall as a predictor of GDP is not a model so much as a correlation. Models usually come form first principles and unless you have something that follows a reasonable and logical causality, I wouldn&#039;t count it as a model. Yet, similar inane statistical correlations is what the ClimateAudit seem to treat as their bread and butter, and it doesn&#039;t surprise me that Hendry misses the point entirely.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I noticed people haven&#8217;t commented too much on this thread. Very understandable as the climate change deniers have no model of their own and they probably wouldn&#8217;t even know where to start.</p>
<p>BTW, UK rainfall as a predictor of GDP is not a model so much as a correlation. Models usually come form first principles and unless you have something that follows a reasonable and logical causality, I wouldn&#8217;t count it as a model. Yet, similar inane statistical correlations is what the ClimateAudit seem to treat as their bread and butter, and it doesn&#8217;t surprise me that Hendry misses the point entirely.</p>
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		<title>By: MikeN</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2009/06/16/pielke-jr-on-models/#comment-185650</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[MikeN]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 18 Jun 2009 19:52:31 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=6298#comment-185650</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Regarding the IPCC not providing data, don&#039;t their reports use the Mauna Loa CO2 levels?  THat site has a license for use which requires all users to be reciprocal, and to provide all data and methods and be helpful to people who ask.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Regarding the IPCC not providing data, don&#8217;t their reports use the Mauna Loa CO2 levels?  THat site has a license for use which requires all users to be reciprocal, and to provide all data and methods and be helpful to people who ask.</p>
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		<title>By: Kenneth Fritsch</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2009/06/16/pielke-jr-on-models/#comment-185649</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Kenneth Fritsch]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 17 Jun 2009 21:01:17 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=6298#comment-185649</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I am not as confident as some of you apparently are that model failure is the real culprit here.  I suspect that modelers know better than advertised the risk involved at the extremes. Those in positions who had to make decisions based on these models had another risk issue and that being if things really went wrong at the extremes of the model what would be the consequences and was too big, or too important, to fail an input (official or unofficial)  into that process. I think it was.  Government enterprises in the US, like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, were often noted by government officials as not backed by the US government, but, in fact, were rated as though they were by investors and their borrowing powers and indeed, as finally reality showed, that was the case.

I would suggest that models used for hurricane risk and hurricane event forecasting have an additional inherent risk factor that officially and/or unofficially considers the failure of over and under predicting these events and consequences.  Given the initial choice of a model that might under predict or over predict, the over prediction, I judge, has the least adverse consequences if incorrect in the opposite direction.

The confidences and narrow uncertainties that climate scientists claim for their climate models forecasts, and for that matter, the climate scientist consensus on AGW are predicated as much, in my view, on what they see as the consequences of being wrong as on any hard analysis on a scientific level.  I would suggest that most of these climate scientists see little adverse unintended consequences of AGW mitigation (unlike myself) and many of them would judge the mitigation actions worthy even without the issue of AGW.

Keynes may have been in tune with mass psychology in some areas, but that would not necessarily extent to his ability in being rather blind (I hope) to the reaction of politicians to what his economic model called for in good economic times when politicians were expected to balance their budgets.  Keynes also may have seen the adverse effects of others models, but not his own.  That is perhaps human nature.  In my view stagflation broke the Keynesian model in the US in the 1970s for all to see, but there are no doubts that that model is being applied aggressively in current time.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I am not as confident as some of you apparently are that model failure is the real culprit here.  I suspect that modelers know better than advertised the risk involved at the extremes. Those in positions who had to make decisions based on these models had another risk issue and that being if things really went wrong at the extremes of the model what would be the consequences and was too big, or too important, to fail an input (official or unofficial)  into that process. I think it was.  Government enterprises in the US, like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, were often noted by government officials as not backed by the US government, but, in fact, were rated as though they were by investors and their borrowing powers and indeed, as finally reality showed, that was the case.</p>
<p>I would suggest that models used for hurricane risk and hurricane event forecasting have an additional inherent risk factor that officially and/or unofficially considers the failure of over and under predicting these events and consequences.  Given the initial choice of a model that might under predict or over predict, the over prediction, I judge, has the least adverse consequences if incorrect in the opposite direction.</p>
<p>The confidences and narrow uncertainties that climate scientists claim for their climate models forecasts, and for that matter, the climate scientist consensus on AGW are predicated as much, in my view, on what they see as the consequences of being wrong as on any hard analysis on a scientific level.  I would suggest that most of these climate scientists see little adverse unintended consequences of AGW mitigation (unlike myself) and many of them would judge the mitigation actions worthy even without the issue of AGW.</p>
<p>Keynes may have been in tune with mass psychology in some areas, but that would not necessarily extent to his ability in being rather blind (I hope) to the reaction of politicians to what his economic model called for in good economic times when politicians were expected to balance their budgets.  Keynes also may have seen the adverse effects of others models, but not his own.  That is perhaps human nature.  In my view stagflation broke the Keynesian model in the US in the 1970s for all to see, but there are no doubts that that model is being applied aggressively in current time.</p>
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		<title>By: Andrew</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2009/06/16/pielke-jr-on-models/#comment-185648</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Andrew]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 17 Jun 2009 13:44:45 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=6298#comment-185648</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Re: &lt;a href=&quot;#comment-346052&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;Hoi Polloi (#3)&lt;/a&gt;, As much as I totally agree...isn&#039;t allowing comments like these against blog policy?
&lt;strong&gt;
Steve:&lt;/strong&gt; yes. It was deleted.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Re: <a href="#comment-346052" rel="nofollow">Hoi Polloi (#3)</a>, As much as I totally agree&#8230;isn&#8217;t allowing comments like these against blog policy?<br />
<strong><br />
Steve:</strong> yes. It was deleted.</p>
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		<title>By: Tom C</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2009/06/16/pielke-jr-on-models/#comment-185647</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Tom C]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 17 Jun 2009 13:42:50 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=6298#comment-185647</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[&lt;blockquote&gt;...a correlation so imposing that is puzzling that it was neglected by Steig et al 2009 and Mann et al 2008. &lt;/blockquote&gt;

Good grief! Don&#039;t give them any more ideas.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<blockquote><p>&#8230;a correlation so imposing that is puzzling that it was neglected by Steig et al 2009 and Mann et al 2008. </p></blockquote>
<p>Good grief! Don&#8217;t give them any more ideas.</p>
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		<title>By: Geoff Sherrington</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2009/06/16/pielke-jr-on-models/#comment-185646</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Geoff Sherrington]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 17 Jun 2009 09:37:44 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=6298#comment-185646</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Re: &lt;a href=&quot;#comment-346007&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;jae (#1)&lt;/a&gt;,

Why complain? The problem is explicitly stated and it has not been fixed. Would you continue to drive your car without further comment when you knew it had a flat?]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Re: <a href="#comment-346007" rel="nofollow">jae (#1)</a>,</p>
<p>Why complain? The problem is explicitly stated and it has not been fixed. Would you continue to drive your car without further comment when you knew it had a flat?</p>
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		<title>By: jae</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2009/06/16/pielke-jr-on-models/#comment-185645</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[jae]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 17 Jun 2009 02:22:08 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=6298#comment-185645</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[&lt;blockquote&gt;I placed it online when we discussed (here) Hendry&#039;s Econometrics - Alchemy or Science, in which Hendry also discussed using cumulative UK rainfall as a predictor (&quot;proxy&quot;) for the Consumer Price Index, a correlation so imposing that is puzzling that it was neglected by Steig et al 2009 and Mann et al 2008.&lt;/blockquote&gt;


LOL. You just cannot resist the rib, eh?]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<blockquote><p>I placed it online when we discussed (here) Hendry&#8217;s Econometrics &#8211; Alchemy or Science, in which Hendry also discussed using cumulative UK rainfall as a predictor (&#8220;proxy&#8221;) for the Consumer Price Index, a correlation so imposing that is puzzling that it was neglected by Steig et al 2009 and Mann et al 2008.</p></blockquote>
<p>LOL. You just cannot resist the rib, eh?</p>
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