Continuation from [insert].
The graphic below shows the daily change in sea ice extent (JAXA). The end of the melt season is about day 259 (about 40 days from now.) The big 2007 was early in July. 2008 had a prolonged melt through August. In the last week or so, 2009 slowed down pretty dramatically. The difference between a 2008-type trajectory and a 2002-3 trajectory in the next 40 days is about 1 million sq km.
Figure 1. Daily Arctic seaice change. Smoothed with gaussian 31-point filter with mean padding (yeah, yeah: there’s undoubtedly a better way of doing it, but I’ve got mean padding handy and not a lot of time today.) Unfiltered 2009 is also shown.
Update: Here is a link to July 2009 predictions of Sept by official modelers. (h/t to reader below for link).