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	<title>Comments on: Briffa&#8217;s Avam-Taimyr Series</title>
	<atom:link href="http://climateaudit.org/2009/09/26/briffas-avam-taymir-series/feed/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>http://climateaudit.org/2009/09/26/briffas-avam-taymir-series/</link>
	<description>by Steve McIntyre</description>
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		<title>By: Yamal: A &#8220;Divergence&#8221; Problem &#171; Climate Audit</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2009/09/26/briffas-avam-taymir-series/#comment-227136</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Yamal: A &#8220;Divergence&#8221; Problem &#171; Climate Audit]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 05 Apr 2010 23:54:03 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=7158#comment-227136</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[[...] picked from a larger population &#8211; measurements from the larger population remain unavailable.  One post ago, I observed that Briffa had supplemented the Taimyr data set (which had a pronounced 20th century [...]]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] picked from a larger population &#8211; measurements from the larger population remain unavailable.  One post ago, I observed that Briffa had supplemented the Taimyr data set (which had a pronounced 20th century [...]</p>
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		<title>By: Yamal: A &#8220;Divergence&#8221; Problem &#8211; Climate Audit &#171; climategate.tv</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2009/09/26/briffas-avam-taymir-series/#comment-207871</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Yamal: A &#8220;Divergence&#8221; Problem &#8211; Climate Audit &#171; climategate.tv]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 10 Dec 2009 15:26:34 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=7158#comment-207871</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[[...] picked from a larger population – measurements from the larger population remain unavailable.  One post ago, I observed that Briffa had supplemented the Taimyr data set (which had a pronounced 20th century [...]]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] picked from a larger population – measurements from the larger population remain unavailable.  One post ago, I observed that Briffa had supplemented the Taimyr data set (which had a pronounced 20th century [...]</p>
]]></content:encoded>
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	<item>
		<title>By: Kylmää vettä MOT:n niskaan &#171; Gaia</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2009/09/26/briffas-avam-taymir-series/#comment-195388</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Kylmää vettä MOT:n niskaan &#171; Gaia]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 09 Nov 2009 04:36:08 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=7158#comment-195388</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[[...] http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=7158 [...]]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] <a href="http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=7158" rel="nofollow">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=7158</a> [...]</p>
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		<title>By: Roberty Burlow</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2009/09/26/briffas-avam-taymir-series/#comment-195387</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Roberty Burlow]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 01 Oct 2009 17:00:11 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=7158#comment-195387</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Bol&#039;shoi Avam is clearly the odd man out here, since it is situated at c. 200 meters altitude in a narrow valley deep in the Putorana Mountains, and probably has a considerably different local climate than the other sites which are in lowland forest

R.Burlow
owner of website --&gt; &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.dimensionsguide.com&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;Billiard Table Dimensions&lt;/a&gt;]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Bol&#8217;shoi Avam is clearly the odd man out here, since it is situated at c. 200 meters altitude in a narrow valley deep in the Putorana Mountains, and probably has a considerably different local climate than the other sites which are in lowland forest</p>
<p>R.Burlow<br />
owner of website &#8211;&gt; <a href="http://www.dimensionsguide.com" rel="nofollow">Billiard Table Dimensions</a></p>
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		<title>By: The Siberian Tree-Ring Circus &#171; the Air Vent</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2009/09/26/briffas-avam-taymir-series/#comment-195386</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[The Siberian Tree-Ring Circus &#171; the Air Vent]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 29 Sep 2009 17:25:08 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=7158#comment-195386</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[[...] is an attempt at a non-staistical explanation of work done by Steve McIntyre (especially here, here and here) and Ross McKitrick, all credit belongs there not here - Update (29 Sept) The key final [...]]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] is an attempt at a non-staistical explanation of work done by Steve McIntyre (especially here, here and here) and Ross McKitrick, all credit belongs there not here &#8211; Update (29 Sept) The key final [...]</p>
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		<title>By: Breaking Hockey Sticks- One more time - ehosterman&#8217;s blog - RedState</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2009/09/26/briffas-avam-taymir-series/#comment-195385</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Breaking Hockey Sticks- One more time - ehosterman&#8217;s blog - RedState]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 29 Sep 2009 16:21:59 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=7158#comment-195385</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[[...] were picked from a larger population - measurements from the larger population remain unavailable.  One post ago, I observed that Briffa had supplemented the Taimyr data set (which had a pronounced 20th century [...]]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] were picked from a larger population &#8211; measurements from the larger population remain unavailable.  One post ago, I observed that Briffa had supplemented the Taimyr data set (which had a pronounced 20th century [...]</p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>By: Jean S</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2009/09/26/briffas-avam-taymir-series/#comment-195384</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Jean S]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 29 Sep 2009 12:31:37 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=7158#comment-195384</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Re: &lt;a href=&quot;#comment-357713&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;Steve McIntyre (#7)&lt;/a&gt;,
Hijacking this back to the original topic ;), I was wondering if you have tried how &quot;robust&quot; Figure 8 (&quot;the moving window Kendall&#039;s W&quot;) of Briffa et al is for this  Avam-Taimyr (and other) modification? They make rather strong statements based on the curves (once again, unnecessary smoothing used but that&#039;s different story) such as (my bold)
&lt;blockquote&gt;In the unsmoothed data, relatively high concordance is apparent again in medieval times, but the highest values in 2000 years are recorded for windows spanning the most recent century or so. In figure 8b, concordance is calculated for different length windows using the raw RCS indices, but the results for each window length are smoothed (using the negative exponential least-squares method; Mclain 1974), which is roughly equivalent to using a 200-year spline. In the unsmoothed concordance series, except for the shortest (51 years) window results which clearly show high concordance approximately 900, &lt;strong&gt;there is evidence of rising and unprecedented similarity in tree growth across northwest Eurasia in the most recent century&lt;/strong&gt;. This is accentuated in the smoothed series for 101- and 201-year window lengths.&lt;/blockquote&gt;
The statement is made despite the fact that  51-year window has diverged from the other two windows, and is about to drop below the &quot;significance level&quot; (dashed line) ... This &quot;result&quot; is given already in the abstract as follows (my bold)
&lt;blockquote&gt;Using Kendall&#039;s concordance, we quantify the time-dependent relationship between growth trends of the long chronologies as a group. This provides strong evidence that the extent of recent widespread warming across northwest Eurasia, &lt;strong&gt;with respect to 100- to 200-year trends&lt;/strong&gt;, is unprecedented in the last 2000 years.&lt;/blockquote&gt;
Somehow, I&#039;m reminded about Mann&#039;s &quot;robust&quot; &quot;evolving multivariate correlations&quot; :)]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Re: <a href="#comment-357713" rel="nofollow">Steve McIntyre (#7)</a>,<br />
Hijacking this back to the original topic <img src='http://s1.wp.com/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_wink.gif' alt=';)' class='wp-smiley' /> , I was wondering if you have tried how &#8220;robust&#8221; Figure 8 (&#8220;the moving window Kendall&#8217;s W&#8221;) of Briffa et al is for this  Avam-Taimyr (and other) modification? They make rather strong statements based on the curves (once again, unnecessary smoothing used but that&#8217;s different story) such as (my bold)</p>
<blockquote><p>In the unsmoothed data, relatively high concordance is apparent again in medieval times, but the highest values in 2000 years are recorded for windows spanning the most recent century or so. In figure 8b, concordance is calculated for different length windows using the raw RCS indices, but the results for each window length are smoothed (using the negative exponential least-squares method; Mclain 1974), which is roughly equivalent to using a 200-year spline. In the unsmoothed concordance series, except for the shortest (51 years) window results which clearly show high concordance approximately 900, <strong>there is evidence of rising and unprecedented similarity in tree growth across northwest Eurasia in the most recent century</strong>. This is accentuated in the smoothed series for 101- and 201-year window lengths.</p></blockquote>
<p>The statement is made despite the fact that  51-year window has diverged from the other two windows, and is about to drop below the &#8220;significance level&#8221; (dashed line) &#8230; This &#8220;result&#8221; is given already in the abstract as follows (my bold)</p>
<blockquote><p>Using Kendall&#8217;s concordance, we quantify the time-dependent relationship between growth trends of the long chronologies as a group. This provides strong evidence that the extent of recent widespread warming across northwest Eurasia, <strong>with respect to 100- to 200-year trends</strong>, is unprecedented in the last 2000 years.</p></blockquote>
<p>Somehow, I&#8217;m reminded about Mann&#8217;s &#8220;robust&#8221; &#8220;evolving multivariate correlations&#8221; <img src='http://s0.wp.com/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif' alt=':)' class='wp-smiley' /> </p>
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		<title>By: Steve McIntyre</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2009/09/26/briffas-avam-taymir-series/#comment-195383</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Steve McIntyre]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 29 Sep 2009 11:53:53 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=7158#comment-195383</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Re: &lt;a href=&quot;#comment-357306&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;tty (#2)&lt;/a&gt;,

At the risk of hijacking my own thread, I think my misspelling &quot;Taymir&quot; is a curious sort of Freudian slip. One of our friends is a Scottish immigrant to Toronto (as opposed to long-term Scottish diaspora like me) and is fond of bad poetry (and good) poetry. McGonagall, recognized in &lt;a href=&quot;http://poetry.about.com/od/19thcpoets/a/mcgonagall.htm&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;some quarters &lt;/a&gt;as the author of the &quot;worst poem&quot; in the English language is one of his favorites. And the highlights of the McGonagall opus are the &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.mcgonagall-online.org.uk/poems/pgbridge.htm&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;Silvery Bridge over the River Tay&lt;/a&gt; and &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.mcgonagall-online.org.uk/poems/pgdisaster.htm&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;The Tay Bridge Disaster&lt;/a&gt;, the latter generally conceded to hold a more special place.

An excerpt from the first poem:

&lt;blockquote&gt;
Beautiful Railway Bridge of the Silvery Tay !
And prosperity to Messrs Bouche and Grothe,
The famous engineers of the present day,
Who have succeeded in erecting the Railway
Bridge of the Silvery Tay,
Which stands unequalled to be seen
Near by Dundee and the Magdalen Green.&lt;/blockquote&gt;

and of the second:
&lt;blockquote&gt;
I must now conclude my lay
By telling the world fearlessly without the least dismay,
That your central girders would not have given way,
At least many sensible men do say,
Had they been supported on each side with buttresses,
At least many sensible men confesses,
&lt;/blockquote&gt;

However, I think that McGonagall&#039;s undoubted triumphs are easily surpassed by a poet of the Scottish Diaspora in Ontario, one whose name conjures up lyric images (I mean, of course,..... James McIntyre), whose most famous poem commences:

&lt;blockquote&gt;We have seen thee, queen of cheese,
Lying quietly at your ease,
Gently fanned by evening breeze,
Thy fair form no flies dare seize.&lt;/blockquote&gt;

McGonagall&#039;s corpus is &lt;a href=&quot;http://poetry.about.com/od/19thcpoets/a/mcgonagall.htm&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;said&lt;/a&gt; to include the following:
&lt;blockquote&gt;
His unparalleled awkward rhythms and dud rhymes were perfectly matched by his subject matter: spectacular train wrecks and the mountains of Greenland.&lt;/blockquote&gt;

I have not examined McGonagall&#039;s corpus in detail. Both topics - the Arctic mountains of Greenland and train wrecks - are highly topical in paleoclimate.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Re: <a href="#comment-357306" rel="nofollow">tty (#2)</a>,</p>
<p>At the risk of hijacking my own thread, I think my misspelling &#8220;Taymir&#8221; is a curious sort of Freudian slip. One of our friends is a Scottish immigrant to Toronto (as opposed to long-term Scottish diaspora like me) and is fond of bad poetry (and good) poetry. McGonagall, recognized in <a href="http://poetry.about.com/od/19thcpoets/a/mcgonagall.htm" rel="nofollow">some quarters </a>as the author of the &#8220;worst poem&#8221; in the English language is one of his favorites. And the highlights of the McGonagall opus are the <a href="http://www.mcgonagall-online.org.uk/poems/pgbridge.htm" rel="nofollow">Silvery Bridge over the River Tay</a> and <a href="http://www.mcgonagall-online.org.uk/poems/pgdisaster.htm" rel="nofollow">The Tay Bridge Disaster</a>, the latter generally conceded to hold a more special place.</p>
<p>An excerpt from the first poem:</p>
<blockquote><p>
Beautiful Railway Bridge of the Silvery Tay !<br />
And prosperity to Messrs Bouche and Grothe,<br />
The famous engineers of the present day,<br />
Who have succeeded in erecting the Railway<br />
Bridge of the Silvery Tay,<br />
Which stands unequalled to be seen<br />
Near by Dundee and the Magdalen Green.</p></blockquote>
<p>and of the second:</p>
<blockquote><p>
I must now conclude my lay<br />
By telling the world fearlessly without the least dismay,<br />
That your central girders would not have given way,<br />
At least many sensible men do say,<br />
Had they been supported on each side with buttresses,<br />
At least many sensible men confesses,
</p></blockquote>
<p>However, I think that McGonagall&#8217;s undoubted triumphs are easily surpassed by a poet of the Scottish Diaspora in Ontario, one whose name conjures up lyric images (I mean, of course,&#8230;.. James McIntyre), whose most famous poem commences:</p>
<blockquote><p>We have seen thee, queen of cheese,<br />
Lying quietly at your ease,<br />
Gently fanned by evening breeze,<br />
Thy fair form no flies dare seize.</p></blockquote>
<p>McGonagall&#8217;s corpus is <a href="http://poetry.about.com/od/19thcpoets/a/mcgonagall.htm" rel="nofollow">said</a> to include the following:</p>
<blockquote><p>
His unparalleled awkward rhythms and dud rhymes were perfectly matched by his subject matter: spectacular train wrecks and the mountains of Greenland.</p></blockquote>
<p>I have not examined McGonagall&#8217;s corpus in detail. Both topics &#8211; the Arctic mountains of Greenland and train wrecks &#8211; are highly topical in paleoclimate.</p>
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		<title>By: MIRROR POSTING of Climate Audit Article on Yamal a &#8220;Divergence&#8221; problem &#171; Watts Up With That?</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2009/09/26/briffas-avam-taymir-series/#comment-195382</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[MIRROR POSTING of Climate Audit Article on Yamal a &#8220;Divergence&#8221; problem &#171; Watts Up With That?]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 28 Sep 2009 23:04:48 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=7158#comment-195382</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[[...] picked from a larger population &#8211; measurements from the larger population remain unavailable.  One post ago, I observed that Briffa had supplemented the Taymir data set (which had a pronounced 20th century [...]]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] picked from a larger population &#8211; measurements from the larger population remain unavailable.  One post ago, I observed that Briffa had supplemented the Taymir data set (which had a pronounced 20th century [...]</p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>By: Climate Research News &#187; The &#8216;Hockey Stick&#8217; IS Dead</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2009/09/26/briffas-avam-taymir-series/#comment-195381</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Climate Research News &#187; The &#8216;Hockey Stick&#8217; IS Dead]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 28 Sep 2009 10:44:53 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=7158#comment-195381</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[[...] 8. Faced with a sample in the Taymir chronology that likely had 3-4 times as many series as the Yamal chronology, Briffa added in data from other researchers&#8217; samples taken at the Avam site, some 400 km away. He also used data from the Schweingruber sampling program circa 1990, also taken about 400 km from Taymir. Regardless of the merits or otherwise of pooling samples from such disparate locations, this establishes a precedent where Briffa added a Schweingruber site to provide additional samples. This, incidentally, ramped up the hockey-stickness of the (now Avam-) Taymir chronology. http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=7158 [...]]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] 8. Faced with a sample in the Taymir chronology that likely had 3-4 times as many series as the Yamal chronology, Briffa added in data from other researchers&#8217; samples taken at the Avam site, some 400 km away. He also used data from the Schweingruber sampling program circa 1990, also taken about 400 km from Taymir. Regardless of the merits or otherwise of pooling samples from such disparate locations, this establishes a precedent where Briffa added a Schweingruber site to provide additional samples. This, incidentally, ramped up the hockey-stickness of the (now Avam-) Taymir chronology. <a href="http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=7158" rel="nofollow">http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=7158</a> [...]</p>
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