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	<title>Comments on: A Third Theory</title>
	<atom:link href="http://climateaudit.org/2009/11/23/an-accident/feed/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>http://climateaudit.org/2009/11/23/an-accident/</link>
	<description>by Steve McIntyre</description>
	<lastBuildDate>Sun, 19 May 2013 07:46:52 +0000</lastBuildDate>
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		<title>By: Scott Lurndal</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2009/11/23/an-accident/#comment-204489</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Scott Lurndal]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 24 Nov 2009 21:11:02 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://camirror.wordpress.com/?p=40#comment-204489</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[From a forensics point of view, the timestamps on the files within the original zipfile are interesting.   The bulk of the data, and many of the documents have what appear to be the orignal file metadata (mostly from the 90&#039;s).   However, all the mail, and several of the documents have a date of december 31, 2008.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>From a forensics point of view, the timestamps on the files within the original zipfile are interesting.   The bulk of the data, and many of the documents have what appear to be the orignal file metadata (mostly from the 90&#8242;s).   However, all the mail, and several of the documents have a date of december 31, 2008.</p>
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		<title>By: Molon Labe</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2009/11/23/an-accident/#comment-204488</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Molon Labe]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 24 Nov 2009 16:11:59 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://camirror.wordpress.com/?p=40#comment-204488</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Apologies to Gavin for this wildly incorrect assertion on my part.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Apologies to Gavin for this wildly incorrect assertion on my part.</p>
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		<title>By: steven mosher</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2009/11/23/an-accident/#comment-204487</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[steven mosher]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 24 Nov 2009 08:57:23 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://camirror.wordpress.com/?p=40#comment-204487</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Well Steve,

Just thinking. You got an  rejection to your FOI request and CRU argued that reason you were denied was as follows:
CRU had confidentiality agreements in place and they might harm international relations and their ability to get data.

But now you know that Jones et al met with the FOI office and explained to them that CA was an evil place full of nasty people. Hmm. Sounds like the basis for some further legal action]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Well Steve,</p>
<p>Just thinking. You got an  rejection to your FOI request and CRU argued that reason you were denied was as follows:<br />
CRU had confidentiality agreements in place and they might harm international relations and their ability to get data.</p>
<p>But now you know that Jones et al met with the FOI office and explained to them that CA was an evil place full of nasty people. Hmm. Sounds like the basis for some further legal action</p>
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		<title>By: ROM</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2009/11/23/an-accident/#comment-204486</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[ROM]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 24 Nov 2009 08:53:27 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://camirror.wordpress.com/?p=40#comment-204486</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Thank you Mr McIntyre for all the work you have put in over the years and for continuing the battle despite all the odium  that has been heaped on you by the warmista ideologists.
I read your blog nearly every day even though a lot of it is way above my understanding  but nevertheless, over the last couple of years I have learn&#039;t a great deal about climate, climate research, climate politics and  the climate researchers involved from Climate Audit.

This is my first try at posting on your site and down at a level even I can understand.

FOI theory;
This theory has already surfaced in Australia but sorry! I don&#039;t buy it Charles.
If it was a prepared file to cover the anticipated FOI request and then left lying around as superfluous after the FOI mob were conned into rejecting the request, why is Jone&#039;s mail which is more or less crowing over how the FOI request was rejected, included in a FOI file that should have been well wrapped up before  the FOI request was rejected.
And FOIA file. Note the &quot;A&quot;.  Is there a &quot;B&quot; and maybe even a &quot;C&quot;  file still to come as suggested by the original releaser.

The &quot;Hacker&quot; was obviously quite familiar with the UK FOI process as well. It was not in any way a random hack.
He also appears to be very familiar with all of CRU&#039;s internal coding  practices and e-mail programs.

For ten years of e-mails from a group that relies extensively on e-mail to move their numerical data around  for which e-mail is ideally suited, that 1000 odd number of mails expanded to perhaps some 3 or 4 thousand with all the replies is just a drop in the bucket over ten years.
That&#039;s only 400 or so mails a year from the entire &quot;in &quot; group and in the numerically  and statistically based climate business and personnel spread over a couple of continents that does not compute.
My guess is that there are a lot more e-mails out there as promised by the hacker.

Jones figures prominently in most or nearly all of those mails and may be the target of the whole hack.
Mann may be a secondary target but as his reputation is already somewhat on the knife edge he will go down with Jones if that is the object of the hack.

The e-mails on their own are almost enough to destroy Jones and even CRU but he will get a lot of sympathy as a target so another strategy was added to reinforce the perceptions arising from the e-mails.
Reams of Code are also included in the hacked files.
Why go to this trouble?
The reaction of a number of financial industry coders on their blog thread, Market Ticker Forums, coders on whose code billions of dollars may be at stake, were to say the least, appalled, caustic, sarcastic and just plain totally disgusted at the standard of the so called coding by the CRU crew as exhibited in the &quot;hacked&quot; file.
Other coders who have looked at the files are expressing surprise at the deliberate coding for biases that are built into the code and notated in the code by the CRU coders.

Jones is head of the climate outfit CRU that creates this coding and the results that come from this appalling quality code is promulgated as the highest standards of global temperature data analysis.
Lousy,  biased and just plain appalling standards of coding under the Jones stewardship of CRU and one of the two major players in the global surface station data analysis and in the  analysis of climate temperature proxies will be laid sooner or later, as head of the CRU, at Jones feet.
That aspect has a good chance of getting the  professional climate researchers upset particularly when they realise that the basic assumptions and data that their work is based on may have been corrupted by bad initial data coding originating in the  CRU and also from CRU origin  data in the IPCC. data base.
Their research work may turn out to be near useless!
 Another nail in Jone&#039;s stewardship of the CRU.

Timing is amazingly coincidental; Just long enough before Copenhagen to allow it all to sink into the public perceptions that CRU was a disaster and just in time to place Jones, head of CRU and Mann and a few others in the spotlight as being responsible for this whole debacle and all this just before Jones, Mann, Briffa and etc would have been hailed by the big boys of the Global Warming ideology and the environmental remoras of Copenhagen as the most significant climatologists of the century.
Coincidental or has somebody cold bloodingly calculated this hack release timing?

No personal details as that would have backfired badly in a personal revenge attack. In a random hack there would have been a large number of personal  details in those e-mails and in a personal, emotionally driven attack those personal details would have been highlighted.
Did not happen!

To me, more and more it is looking like a long term  professional revenge attack where the hacker is emotionally well controlled and is going about this in a very systematic manner along the lines; &quot;revenge is best served cold&quot;.
The alternative is a principled CRU insider who is going to a lot of very carefully controlled trouble to get this right.

The data and coding  in the file / files yet to come may have been collected, combed and sorted over quite a period and may also have been cached on a secure outside server for release when required.
Not so hard if the hacker is working out of house  on occasions and if an IT professional inside CRU he may well have had access to all the pass words.
A hack attack would be a good cover . A multiple hack attack would provide ideal cover as the &quot;hacker&quot; rushed to the rescue and stopped the hack in it&#039;s tracks. Not hard when you know the timing and form of the attack.

And did those Russians ever see the color of their money  and for what and how much!
Russians still want to be amongst the biggest players on the global scene and in climate research also, so eliminating CRU which holds different views on the future global climate temperature trends to the Russians by providing a platform for a disgruntled employee with a secure sever network and a little help along the way would likely materially assist their own ambitions and without any risk to them at all.

All guess work but the implications of this, particularly the code release, when the professionals get their teeth into it, may be very profound.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Thank you Mr McIntyre for all the work you have put in over the years and for continuing the battle despite all the odium  that has been heaped on you by the warmista ideologists.<br />
I read your blog nearly every day even though a lot of it is way above my understanding  but nevertheless, over the last couple of years I have learn&#8217;t a great deal about climate, climate research, climate politics and  the climate researchers involved from Climate Audit.</p>
<p>This is my first try at posting on your site and down at a level even I can understand.</p>
<p>FOI theory;<br />
This theory has already surfaced in Australia but sorry! I don&#8217;t buy it Charles.<br />
If it was a prepared file to cover the anticipated FOI request and then left lying around as superfluous after the FOI mob were conned into rejecting the request, why is Jone&#8217;s mail which is more or less crowing over how the FOI request was rejected, included in a FOI file that should have been well wrapped up before  the FOI request was rejected.<br />
And FOIA file. Note the &#8220;A&#8221;.  Is there a &#8220;B&#8221; and maybe even a &#8220;C&#8221;  file still to come as suggested by the original releaser.</p>
<p>The &#8220;Hacker&#8221; was obviously quite familiar with the UK FOI process as well. It was not in any way a random hack.<br />
He also appears to be very familiar with all of CRU&#8217;s internal coding  practices and e-mail programs.</p>
<p>For ten years of e-mails from a group that relies extensively on e-mail to move their numerical data around  for which e-mail is ideally suited, that 1000 odd number of mails expanded to perhaps some 3 or 4 thousand with all the replies is just a drop in the bucket over ten years.<br />
That&#8217;s only 400 or so mails a year from the entire &#8220;in &#8221; group and in the numerically  and statistically based climate business and personnel spread over a couple of continents that does not compute.<br />
My guess is that there are a lot more e-mails out there as promised by the hacker.</p>
<p>Jones figures prominently in most or nearly all of those mails and may be the target of the whole hack.<br />
Mann may be a secondary target but as his reputation is already somewhat on the knife edge he will go down with Jones if that is the object of the hack.</p>
<p>The e-mails on their own are almost enough to destroy Jones and even CRU but he will get a lot of sympathy as a target so another strategy was added to reinforce the perceptions arising from the e-mails.<br />
Reams of Code are also included in the hacked files.<br />
Why go to this trouble?<br />
The reaction of a number of financial industry coders on their blog thread, Market Ticker Forums, coders on whose code billions of dollars may be at stake, were to say the least, appalled, caustic, sarcastic and just plain totally disgusted at the standard of the so called coding by the CRU crew as exhibited in the &#8220;hacked&#8221; file.<br />
Other coders who have looked at the files are expressing surprise at the deliberate coding for biases that are built into the code and notated in the code by the CRU coders.</p>
<p>Jones is head of the climate outfit CRU that creates this coding and the results that come from this appalling quality code is promulgated as the highest standards of global temperature data analysis.<br />
Lousy,  biased and just plain appalling standards of coding under the Jones stewardship of CRU and one of the two major players in the global surface station data analysis and in the  analysis of climate temperature proxies will be laid sooner or later, as head of the CRU, at Jones feet.<br />
That aspect has a good chance of getting the  professional climate researchers upset particularly when they realise that the basic assumptions and data that their work is based on may have been corrupted by bad initial data coding originating in the  CRU and also from CRU origin  data in the IPCC. data base.<br />
Their research work may turn out to be near useless!<br />
 Another nail in Jone&#8217;s stewardship of the CRU.</p>
<p>Timing is amazingly coincidental; Just long enough before Copenhagen to allow it all to sink into the public perceptions that CRU was a disaster and just in time to place Jones, head of CRU and Mann and a few others in the spotlight as being responsible for this whole debacle and all this just before Jones, Mann, Briffa and etc would have been hailed by the big boys of the Global Warming ideology and the environmental remoras of Copenhagen as the most significant climatologists of the century.<br />
Coincidental or has somebody cold bloodingly calculated this hack release timing?</p>
<p>No personal details as that would have backfired badly in a personal revenge attack. In a random hack there would have been a large number of personal  details in those e-mails and in a personal, emotionally driven attack those personal details would have been highlighted.<br />
Did not happen!</p>
<p>To me, more and more it is looking like a long term  professional revenge attack where the hacker is emotionally well controlled and is going about this in a very systematic manner along the lines; &#8220;revenge is best served cold&#8221;.<br />
The alternative is a principled CRU insider who is going to a lot of very carefully controlled trouble to get this right.</p>
<p>The data and coding  in the file / files yet to come may have been collected, combed and sorted over quite a period and may also have been cached on a secure outside server for release when required.<br />
Not so hard if the hacker is working out of house  on occasions and if an IT professional inside CRU he may well have had access to all the pass words.<br />
A hack attack would be a good cover . A multiple hack attack would provide ideal cover as the &#8220;hacker&#8221; rushed to the rescue and stopped the hack in it&#8217;s tracks. Not hard when you know the timing and form of the attack.</p>
<p>And did those Russians ever see the color of their money  and for what and how much!<br />
Russians still want to be amongst the biggest players on the global scene and in climate research also, so eliminating CRU which holds different views on the future global climate temperature trends to the Russians by providing a platform for a disgruntled employee with a secure sever network and a little help along the way would likely materially assist their own ambitions and without any risk to them at all.</p>
<p>All guess work but the implications of this, particularly the code release, when the professionals get their teeth into it, may be very profound.</p>
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		<title>By: Bernie</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2009/11/23/an-accident/#comment-204485</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Bernie]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 24 Nov 2009 05:30:54 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://camirror.wordpress.com/?p=40#comment-204485</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Has anyone tried a search string that will pull all the existing email threads that would be relevant to the FOI request.  For example,
Briffa +Yamal +data +FOI +temperature

Obviously such a string might have pulled other threads as well but it might provide a hint as to the origins of this file.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Has anyone tried a search string that will pull all the existing email threads that would be relevant to the FOI request.  For example,<br />
Briffa +Yamal +data +FOI +temperature</p>
<p>Obviously such a string might have pulled other threads as well but it might provide a hint as to the origins of this file.</p>
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		<title>By: mick</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2009/11/23/an-accident/#comment-204484</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[mick]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 24 Nov 2009 04:40:56 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://camirror.wordpress.com/?p=40#comment-204484</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Since everyone is having a go, the zip is a sack of sensitive stuff pulled together &amp; hidden offsite temporarily on realclimate, to be shuffled on to wherever later when things cooled down. Someone got the url that shouldn&#039;t have.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Since everyone is having a go, the zip is a sack of sensitive stuff pulled together &amp; hidden offsite temporarily on realclimate, to be shuffled on to wherever later when things cooled down. Someone got the url that shouldn&#8217;t have.</p>
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		<title>By: DeNihilist</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2009/11/23/an-accident/#comment-204483</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[DeNihilist]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 24 Nov 2009 04:20:34 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://camirror.wordpress.com/?p=40#comment-204483</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[&quot; Chris Knight,
It’s obviously a cunning ploy by “Harry” to open-source his workload and get the code and data fixed by all the willing “hackers” and self-styled auditors in Sceptic land. I estimate all the data, analysis and graphs will be in the blogosphere in about 5 days, peer reviewed by the sharpest critics, and squeaky clean. &quot;

Thanx Chris! Now I gotta clean my keyboard....
LMFAROTFP!]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&#8221; Chris Knight,<br />
It’s obviously a cunning ploy by “Harry” to open-source his workload and get the code and data fixed by all the willing “hackers” and self-styled auditors in Sceptic land. I estimate all the data, analysis and graphs will be in the blogosphere in about 5 days, peer reviewed by the sharpest critics, and squeaky clean. &#8221;</p>
<p>Thanx Chris! Now I gotta clean my keyboard&#8230;.<br />
LMFAROTFP!</p>
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		<title>By: Mr Purple</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2009/11/23/an-accident/#comment-204482</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Mr Purple]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 24 Nov 2009 03:36:45 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://camirror.wordpress.com/?p=40#comment-204482</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[It certainly looks targeted towards your inquiries - and he makes an excellent point about the time it would take a hacker to acquire this specific data.

If this is what they would be required to release then it would certainly be something they would want to fight. Plenty of ammo there.

What I think the skeptics should be focusing on right now is that once again their statements are being proven right. Skeptics predicted cooling. Skeptics have been claiming biased science and manipulated data by the alarmists. Skeptics have been saying they are shut out of the review process and publicly scorned for their views.

I&#039;ve been involved in research projects and mingling with competitors promoting their differing theories and methods - but I never pondered hitting them! I may have been intrigued or amused by their ideas but this anger being expressed is what alarms me.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>It certainly looks targeted towards your inquiries &#8211; and he makes an excellent point about the time it would take a hacker to acquire this specific data.</p>
<p>If this is what they would be required to release then it would certainly be something they would want to fight. Plenty of ammo there.</p>
<p>What I think the skeptics should be focusing on right now is that once again their statements are being proven right. Skeptics predicted cooling. Skeptics have been claiming biased science and manipulated data by the alarmists. Skeptics have been saying they are shut out of the review process and publicly scorned for their views.</p>
<p>I&#8217;ve been involved in research projects and mingling with competitors promoting their differing theories and methods &#8211; but I never pondered hitting them! I may have been intrigued or amused by their ideas but this anger being expressed is what alarms me.</p>
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		<title>By: Larry Kain</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2009/11/23/an-accident/#comment-204481</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Larry Kain]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 24 Nov 2009 02:16:13 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://camirror.wordpress.com/?p=40#comment-204481</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Doesn&#039;t sound that crazy to me.  I have been thinking along the same lines but with an added wrinkle: If you start with Phil Jones an go up the ladder of power at UEA, into the ranks of the “big boys” you will soon come to someone who values the reputation of the University of East Anglia more than the career of Professor Jones.   Criticism of his stance of not releasing data and code was starting to come from mainstream scientists like Von Scorch, not just skeptics/auditors.
If the UEA administration knew what was going on at CRU, and it&#039;s their job to know, they would see some bad PR for UEA in the near future and Prof. Jones as a liability.   A convenient “leak” of information kills two birds with one stone: The FOI is rendered moot without UEA compromising its autonomy.  The other bird?  Phil  Jones.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Doesn&#8217;t sound that crazy to me.  I have been thinking along the same lines but with an added wrinkle: If you start with Phil Jones an go up the ladder of power at UEA, into the ranks of the “big boys” you will soon come to someone who values the reputation of the University of East Anglia more than the career of Professor Jones.   Criticism of his stance of not releasing data and code was starting to come from mainstream scientists like Von Scorch, not just skeptics/auditors.<br />
If the UEA administration knew what was going on at CRU, and it&#8217;s their job to know, they would see some bad PR for UEA in the near future and Prof. Jones as a liability.   A convenient “leak” of information kills two birds with one stone: The FOI is rendered moot without UEA compromising its autonomy.  The other bird?  Phil  Jones.</p>
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		<title>By: Corey</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2009/11/23/an-accident/#comment-204480</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Corey]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 24 Nov 2009 00:42:40 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://camirror.wordpress.com/?p=40#comment-204480</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[This is an interesting request from Gavin:

&lt;blockquote&gt;The use of a turkish computer would seem to imply that this upload and hack was not solely a whistleblower act, but one that involved more sophisticated knowledge. &lt;strong&gt;If SM or JeffID want to share the IPs associated with the comments on their sites, I’ll be happy to post the IP address that was used to compromise RC.&lt;/strong&gt;
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2009/11/the-cru-hack-context/comment-page-3/#comments&lt;/blockquote&gt;

If there is an investigation, Gavin would be compromising it at the least, and at the extreme interfering with it by asking and posting this information. I personally do not believe that he was hacked. He is just trying to get the IP address from either JeffID or Steve. Sorry, I&#039;m not buying it.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>This is an interesting request from Gavin:</p>
<blockquote><p>The use of a turkish computer would seem to imply that this upload and hack was not solely a whistleblower act, but one that involved more sophisticated knowledge. <strong>If SM or JeffID want to share the IPs associated with the comments on their sites, I’ll be happy to post the IP address that was used to compromise RC.</strong><br />
<a href="http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2009/11/the-cru-hack-context/comment-page-3/#comments" rel="nofollow">http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2009/11/the-cru-hack-context/comment-page-3/#comments</a></p></blockquote>
<p>If there is an investigation, Gavin would be compromising it at the least, and at the extreme interfering with it by asking and posting this information. I personally do not believe that he was hacked. He is just trying to get the IP address from either JeffID or Steve. Sorry, I&#8217;m not buying it.</p>
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