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	<title>Comments on: Yamal and the Vaganov Network</title>
	<atom:link href="http://climateaudit.org/2010/04/23/yamal-and-the-vaganov-network/feed/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>http://climateaudit.org/2010/04/23/yamal-and-the-vaganov-network/</link>
	<description>by Steve McIntyre</description>
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		<title>By: John Blake</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2010/04/23/yamal-and-the-vaganov-network/#comment-228992</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[John Blake]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 29 Apr 2010 00:13:50 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://climateaudit.org/?p=10822#comment-228992</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Given the Russian aerial photo of larch thickets closely tracking river margins, correlating tree-ring patterns with water-tables would be an interesting exercise.  Are any requisite hydrological data historically available from this area?]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Given the Russian aerial photo of larch thickets closely tracking river margins, correlating tree-ring patterns with water-tables would be an interesting exercise.  Are any requisite hydrological data historically available from this area?</p>
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		<title>By: john</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2010/04/23/yamal-and-the-vaganov-network/#comment-228848</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[john]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 26 Apr 2010 22:18:52 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://climateaudit.org/?p=10822#comment-228848</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I sometimes think that Steve McIntyre&#039;s  posts are somewhat obscure . I recently sent an e-mail to a third party (see below) trying to clarify what he said in the Yamal post of April 23. Do I give a  reasonably accurate synopsis of what he wrote there?

Besides e-mails, the climategate files include data files, obscurely labled, that might or might not be related to published results. Steve McIntyre has performed some impressive detective work in identifying files relating to the Yamal chronology. The published work based on the Yamal chronology shows a recent six standard deviation movement in temperature upwards from the long run fluctuations about the average. The climategate files, that he suggests underlies the published Yamal chronology, are dramatically different and taken together show a decline in recent years. 

Graphs of the comparisons can be found at:

http://climateaudit.org/

McIntyre is asking for an explanation for the discrepency which he thinks the Oxburgh inquirey could have also demanded.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I sometimes think that Steve McIntyre&#8217;s  posts are somewhat obscure . I recently sent an e-mail to a third party (see below) trying to clarify what he said in the Yamal post of April 23. Do I give a  reasonably accurate synopsis of what he wrote there?</p>
<p>Besides e-mails, the climategate files include data files, obscurely labled, that might or might not be related to published results. Steve McIntyre has performed some impressive detective work in identifying files relating to the Yamal chronology. The published work based on the Yamal chronology shows a recent six standard deviation movement in temperature upwards from the long run fluctuations about the average. The climategate files, that he suggests underlies the published Yamal chronology, are dramatically different and taken together show a decline in recent years. </p>
<p>Graphs of the comparisons can be found at:</p>
<p><a href="http://climateaudit.org/" rel="nofollow">http://climateaudit.org/</a></p>
<p>McIntyre is asking for an explanation for the discrepency which he thinks the Oxburgh inquirey could have also demanded.</p>
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		<title>By: mpaul</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2010/04/23/yamal-and-the-vaganov-network/#comment-228841</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[mpaul]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 26 Apr 2010 16:32:24 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://climateaudit.org/?p=10822#comment-228841</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Tree rings, as a general matter, show very weak (if any) correlation to temperature.  A very small number of magical trees have been discovered that happen to show correlation to temperature during a very brief period.  These trees were then specially selected (cherry picked) to be &#039;temperature responders&#039;.  Later, it was discovered that this &quot;correlation&quot; was ephemeral -- like mist on an early morning lake.  I don&#039;t think its correct to say that we have a &#039;divergence problem&#039; nor do I think its correct to look for a cause.  I think it&#039;s more correct to say that the appropriateness of using tree rings as temperature proxies has not been established and that recent data calls into question the reliance on tree rings in major paleo reconstructions.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Tree rings, as a general matter, show very weak (if any) correlation to temperature.  A very small number of magical trees have been discovered that happen to show correlation to temperature during a very brief period.  These trees were then specially selected (cherry picked) to be &#8216;temperature responders&#8217;.  Later, it was discovered that this &#8220;correlation&#8221; was ephemeral &#8212; like mist on an early morning lake.  I don&#8217;t think its correct to say that we have a &#8216;divergence problem&#8217; nor do I think its correct to look for a cause.  I think it&#8217;s more correct to say that the appropriateness of using tree rings as temperature proxies has not been established and that recent data calls into question the reliance on tree rings in major paleo reconstructions.</p>
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		<title>By: DocMartyn</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2010/04/23/yamal-and-the-vaganov-network/#comment-228769</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[DocMartyn]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 26 Apr 2010 00:07:12 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://climateaudit.org/?p=10822#comment-228769</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[&quot;Craig Loehle

The problem, of course, is that you can not do physiological experiments with long-lived trees.&quot;

I must respectfully disagree, the experiments have been done. 
In Parks and Arboretums all around the world are tress that were placed there some decades ago; where they were moved from and when is known. There are many hundreds of transplanted tress in Central Park NY alone.  
It would be quite easy to look at the tree rings of moved tress at Kew Gardens, outside London.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&#8220;Craig Loehle</p>
<p>The problem, of course, is that you can not do physiological experiments with long-lived trees.&#8221;</p>
<p>I must respectfully disagree, the experiments have been done.<br />
In Parks and Arboretums all around the world are tress that were placed there some decades ago; where they were moved from and when is known. There are many hundreds of transplanted tress in Central Park NY alone.<br />
It would be quite easy to look at the tree rings of moved tress at Kew Gardens, outside London.</p>
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		<title>By: Robert</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2010/04/23/yamal-and-the-vaganov-network/#comment-228749</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Robert]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 25 Apr 2010 19:20:39 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://climateaudit.org/?p=10822#comment-228749</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[You are indeed correct that the method is still in its infancy. Maybe in a month or so I will be done with a higher certainty in my results and such, its hard to find time to do things sometimes when you&#039;re working only outside of work hours, i&#039;m sure you can relate.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>You are indeed correct that the method is still in its infancy. Maybe in a month or so I will be done with a higher certainty in my results and such, its hard to find time to do things sometimes when you&#8217;re working only outside of work hours, i&#8217;m sure you can relate.</p>
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		<title>By: LearDog</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2010/04/23/yamal-and-the-vaganov-network/#comment-228738</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[LearDog]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 25 Apr 2010 15:18:07 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://climateaudit.org/?p=10822#comment-228738</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Steve, Geoff, Craig - 

love the analysis and comments (&#039;losing weight by eating donuts&#039; ha ha ha!  ). Of course all you&#039;re doing is merely indicting an entire wing of &#039;science&#039; that has kind of gotten away from reality.  


Honestly can&#039;t expect the dendrochronologists to face such difficult questions, they&#039;re human after all. Best for them to ignore the elephant in the room (la la la la). That&#039;s why they&#039;ve been forced to resort to elaborate and unscientific tricks to keep the edifice in place:
a) &#039;hiding the decline&#039;,
b) forcing the densities to match, or 
c) selecting the &quot;well-behaved&quot; trees to get around the &#039;divergence&#039; issue. 

Otherwise - they would have to squarely address the fact that their chosen field isn&#039;t really science. 

Irreproducible.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Steve, Geoff, Craig &#8211; </p>
<p>love the analysis and comments (&#8216;losing weight by eating donuts&#8217; ha ha ha!  ). Of course all you&#8217;re doing is merely indicting an entire wing of &#8216;science&#8217; that has kind of gotten away from reality.  </p>
<p>Honestly can&#8217;t expect the dendrochronologists to face such difficult questions, they&#8217;re human after all. Best for them to ignore the elephant in the room (la la la la). That&#8217;s why they&#8217;ve been forced to resort to elaborate and unscientific tricks to keep the edifice in place:<br />
a) &#8216;hiding the decline&#8217;,<br />
b) forcing the densities to match, or<br />
c) selecting the &#8220;well-behaved&#8221; trees to get around the &#8216;divergence&#8217; issue. </p>
<p>Otherwise &#8211; they would have to squarely address the fact that their chosen field isn&#8217;t really science. </p>
<p>Irreproducible.</p>
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		<title>By: Mesa</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2010/04/23/yamal-and-the-vaganov-network/#comment-228734</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Mesa]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 25 Apr 2010 14:34:33 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://climateaudit.org/?p=10822#comment-228734</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I suspect that the paleo argument would be that temperature is a somehow a universal observable variable across the globe due to CO2 increases, while things like precipitation and crowding, nutrients etc would &quot;average out&quot;.  I think what has really happened is basically an &quot;averaging out&quot; of everything (as this blog has pointed out may times), coupled with careful selection and combination of proxies in unusually &quot;creative&quot; ways to claim evidence of warming recently.  It&#039;s pretty obvious from say the satellite record that temperature changes are not well correlated enough across the globe to be claimed to be universal, at least to the level of resolution we are talking about here, say 1 degree C.   I&#039;d be interested if there is a counter-argument paleos might make.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I suspect that the paleo argument would be that temperature is a somehow a universal observable variable across the globe due to CO2 increases, while things like precipitation and crowding, nutrients etc would &#8220;average out&#8221;.  I think what has really happened is basically an &#8220;averaging out&#8221; of everything (as this blog has pointed out may times), coupled with careful selection and combination of proxies in unusually &#8220;creative&#8221; ways to claim evidence of warming recently.  It&#8217;s pretty obvious from say the satellite record that temperature changes are not well correlated enough across the globe to be claimed to be universal, at least to the level of resolution we are talking about here, say 1 degree C.   I&#8217;d be interested if there is a counter-argument paleos might make.</p>
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		<title>By: Dave L.</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2010/04/23/yamal-and-the-vaganov-network/#comment-228730</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Dave L.]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 25 Apr 2010 12:06:47 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://climateaudit.org/?p=10822#comment-228730</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Stephen,

I cultivate thousands of flower bulbs, and I fully agree with you. It is not possible to analyze the combinations of temperature and moisture that you list because the data is not available for the actual locations of the trees (microclimates), and another important aspect is the occurrence of a brief late significant freeze in spring (I have no fruit on my trees this year because of such a late freeze).

Another very important contribution that is not evaluated: nutrients, in particular the crowding together of individual trees -- too much competition from crowding and growth is stunted, but the degree of crowding versus stunting is not a linear relationship. I can tell you from personal observations, that when stunting occurs, the overall effects upon individual growing parts are definitely not uniform (at least in flower bulbs); some parts show more pronounced effects than other parts.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Stephen,</p>
<p>I cultivate thousands of flower bulbs, and I fully agree with you. It is not possible to analyze the combinations of temperature and moisture that you list because the data is not available for the actual locations of the trees (microclimates), and another important aspect is the occurrence of a brief late significant freeze in spring (I have no fruit on my trees this year because of such a late freeze).</p>
<p>Another very important contribution that is not evaluated: nutrients, in particular the crowding together of individual trees &#8212; too much competition from crowding and growth is stunted, but the degree of crowding versus stunting is not a linear relationship. I can tell you from personal observations, that when stunting occurs, the overall effects upon individual growing parts are definitely not uniform (at least in flower bulbs); some parts show more pronounced effects than other parts.</p>
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		<title>By: stephen richards</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2010/04/23/yamal-and-the-vaganov-network/#comment-228728</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[stephen richards]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 25 Apr 2010 11:18:52 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://climateaudit.org/?p=10822#comment-228728</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[There are some things we can say for certain about plant(almost)and their relation to growing conditions.  They adapt.

However, certain types of plant adapt to their environment more readily than others.  It appears from the fossil record that trees may adapt more slowly than for instance legumes and that this could be down to the fertilisation process, perhaps, or longevity.  What we can say for certain, as vegetable growers is that warm and averagely damp is best.  Warm and too damp is bad, cold and dry is bad, cold and wet is bad; cold and dry is hopeless as is warm and dry.  Put this into an equation and what do get?  You get that temperature is NOT mutually exclusive.  It virtually has to be impossible to separate the warm signal from the precipitation signal even with stats, unless you have a suitable calibration parametre which will allow you to isolate the precipitation.  I don&#039;t see one back to the year dot.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>There are some things we can say for certain about plant(almost)and their relation to growing conditions.  They adapt.</p>
<p>However, certain types of plant adapt to their environment more readily than others.  It appears from the fossil record that trees may adapt more slowly than for instance legumes and that this could be down to the fertilisation process, perhaps, or longevity.  What we can say for certain, as vegetable growers is that warm and averagely damp is best.  Warm and too damp is bad, cold and dry is bad, cold and wet is bad; cold and dry is hopeless as is warm and dry.  Put this into an equation and what do get?  You get that temperature is NOT mutually exclusive.  It virtually has to be impossible to separate the warm signal from the precipitation signal even with stats, unless you have a suitable calibration parametre which will allow you to isolate the precipitation.  I don&#8217;t see one back to the year dot.</p>
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		<title>By: Barclay E MacDonald</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2010/04/23/yamal-and-the-vaganov-network/#comment-228727</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Barclay E MacDonald]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 25 Apr 2010 11:15:17 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://climateaudit.org/?p=10822#comment-228727</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Robert, any chance you would like to show us more of what you have found, perhaps your composite? What leads you to believe there has been rapid warming demonstrated in your area of focus? If true, can it possibly be explained by changing ocean currents or indirect El Nino effects or something else? Sorry if I&#039;m being premature. Maybe you&#039;re not ready yet, or it wouldn&#039;t be material to the blog. Oops! I see I am digressing from the topic of the thread. I blame it on the above comments leading me astray:)]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Robert, any chance you would like to show us more of what you have found, perhaps your composite? What leads you to believe there has been rapid warming demonstrated in your area of focus? If true, can it possibly be explained by changing ocean currents or indirect El Nino effects or something else? Sorry if I&#8217;m being premature. Maybe you&#8217;re not ready yet, or it wouldn&#8217;t be material to the blog. Oops! I see I am digressing from the topic of the thread. I blame it on the above comments leading me astray:)</p>
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