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	<title>Comments on: Y2K Re-Visited</title>
	<atom:link href="http://climateaudit.org/2010/11/11/y2k-re-visited/feed/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>http://climateaudit.org/2010/11/11/y2k-re-visited/</link>
	<description>by Steve McIntyre</description>
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		<title>By: Mike Ozanne</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2010/11/11/y2k-re-visited/#comment-245695</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Mike Ozanne]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 22 Nov 2010 14:12:48 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://climateaudit.org/?p=12345#comment-245695</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I can understand how the actual results from a group of stations might have weightings and inclusion/exclusion criteria applied to them in the course of generating a derived set of aggregate readings say for a defined district or a geographical &#039;Box&#039; but I still don&#039;t see why changing the original data is involved. I&#039;d also expect any such aggregation process and indeed any decision points to exclude &#039;outliers&#039; to be based on a published specification detailing how they estimated the &#039;normal&#039; mean and variability of the climate at each station. Which distribution was used to deal with rare events and why. How they would ascribe any particular set of readings as normal or indicative of a change in mean or variability. What the weighting/exclusion algorithms are and how well they are conditioned in response to changes in the data. Is all that available?

The other thing suggested is that what&#039;s really needed is a self calibrating network that isolates locations that are drifting away from &quot;true&quot;. Having been involved in building sensor nets for industrial processes, I would have tp say it&#039;s difficult enough to get working when its been designed for purpose with malice and forethought and you have some control over the operational environment. Trying to synthesise that result from a set of stations NOT designed for it by torturing the data isn&#039;t likely to give reliable results.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I can understand how the actual results from a group of stations might have weightings and inclusion/exclusion criteria applied to them in the course of generating a derived set of aggregate readings say for a defined district or a geographical &#8216;Box&#8217; but I still don&#8217;t see why changing the original data is involved. I&#8217;d also expect any such aggregation process and indeed any decision points to exclude &#8216;outliers&#8217; to be based on a published specification detailing how they estimated the &#8216;normal&#8217; mean and variability of the climate at each station. Which distribution was used to deal with rare events and why. How they would ascribe any particular set of readings as normal or indicative of a change in mean or variability. What the weighting/exclusion algorithms are and how well they are conditioned in response to changes in the data. Is all that available?</p>
<p>The other thing suggested is that what&#8217;s really needed is a self calibrating network that isolates locations that are drifting away from &#8220;true&#8221;. Having been involved in building sensor nets for industrial processes, I would have tp say it&#8217;s difficult enough to get working when its been designed for purpose with malice and forethought and you have some control over the operational environment. Trying to synthesise that result from a set of stations NOT designed for it by torturing the data isn&#8217;t likely to give reliable results.</p>
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		<title>By: Brian H</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2010/11/11/y2k-re-visited/#comment-245674</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Brian H]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 21 Nov 2010 04:46:30 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://climateaudit.org/?p=12345#comment-245674</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[And what makes you think anyone dired? Whatever that is.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>And what makes you think anyone dired? Whatever that is.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>By: Jeff Alberts</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2010/11/11/y2k-re-visited/#comment-245663</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Jeff Alberts]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 20 Nov 2010 18:09:03 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://climateaudit.org/?p=12345#comment-245663</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Actually it is a sensible analogy.

With AGW we have:

The vanity of the modelers thinking their models accurately represent reality
The vanity of the reconstructors to think no one would check their work
The vanity of the clique to think they could control peer review.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Actually it is a sensible analogy.</p>
<p>With AGW we have:</p>
<p>The vanity of the modelers thinking their models accurately represent reality<br />
The vanity of the reconstructors to think no one would check their work<br />
The vanity of the clique to think they could control peer review.</p>
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		<title>By: thefordprefect</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2010/11/11/y2k-re-visited/#comment-245658</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[thefordprefect]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 20 Nov 2010 11:44:37 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://climateaudit.org/?p=12345#comment-245658</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The Titanic is not a sensible analogy here. People dired because of so many vanities:

The vanity of the engineer thinking it was unsinkable and so did not require a lifeboat for each passenger,
The vanity of the company wanting maximum speed
The vanity of humanity assuming the rich deserve better treatment than the poor.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The Titanic is not a sensible analogy here. People dired because of so many vanities:</p>
<p>The vanity of the engineer thinking it was unsinkable and so did not require a lifeboat for each passenger,<br />
The vanity of the company wanting maximum speed<br />
The vanity of humanity assuming the rich deserve better treatment than the poor.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>By: POWinCA</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2010/11/11/y2k-re-visited/#comment-245613</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[POWinCA]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 18 Nov 2010 02:10:49 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://climateaudit.org/?p=12345#comment-245613</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Steve:

I skimmed  a recent issue of Scientific American containing an article regarding global warming research skeptics and how some researchers are taking them more seriously, or at least allowing them a voice.

The article states that several skeptic theories have been disproved, yet continue to circulate nonetheless. Naturally, the author doesn&#039;t waste any ink telling us which theories those are, who disproved them, and whether there have been subsequent rebuttals by the skeptics.

I know you can&#039;t read the mind of the author, but can you shed some light on what you think this author considers &quot;disproved&quot;?

Clearly, the hockey league no longer wishes to play.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Steve:</p>
<p>I skimmed  a recent issue of Scientific American containing an article regarding global warming research skeptics and how some researchers are taking them more seriously, or at least allowing them a voice.</p>
<p>The article states that several skeptic theories have been disproved, yet continue to circulate nonetheless. Naturally, the author doesn&#8217;t waste any ink telling us which theories those are, who disproved them, and whether there have been subsequent rebuttals by the skeptics.</p>
<p>I know you can&#8217;t read the mind of the author, but can you shed some light on what you think this author considers &#8220;disproved&#8221;?</p>
<p>Clearly, the hockey league no longer wishes to play.</p>
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		<title>By: Jeff Alberts</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2010/11/11/y2k-re-visited/#comment-245581</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Jeff Alberts]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 16 Nov 2010 02:35:10 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://climateaudit.org/?p=12345#comment-245581</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[&quot;climactic phenomenon&quot;

Freudian slip? How do we know Freud even WORE a slip?]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&#8220;climactic phenomenon&#8221;</p>
<p>Freudian slip? How do we know Freud even WORE a slip?</p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>By: Andy L</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2010/11/11/y2k-re-visited/#comment-245575</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Andy L]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 15 Nov 2010 21:19:19 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://climateaudit.org/?p=12345#comment-245575</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Not that I entirely approve of the tactic, but the idea is that when you&#039;re making local measurements of a larger climactic phenomenon, you&#039;re necessarily taking a sample at a point where even a slightly larger local averaging could produce results that differ from it.  The homogenization techniques are designed, in theory, to allow you to have an estimate of the average local temperature; using things like spatial averaging to attempt to isolate and repair both single-measurement outliers and trends not related to actual climate (siting and local environmental changes).

That said, I have not been thrilled by what I have seen of the actual techniques employed, especially since it is very difficult to determine whether the applied adjustments are actually improving the quality of the data.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Not that I entirely approve of the tactic, but the idea is that when you&#8217;re making local measurements of a larger climactic phenomenon, you&#8217;re necessarily taking a sample at a point where even a slightly larger local averaging could produce results that differ from it.  The homogenization techniques are designed, in theory, to allow you to have an estimate of the average local temperature; using things like spatial averaging to attempt to isolate and repair both single-measurement outliers and trends not related to actual climate (siting and local environmental changes).</p>
<p>That said, I have not been thrilled by what I have seen of the actual techniques employed, especially since it is very difficult to determine whether the applied adjustments are actually improving the quality of the data.</p>
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		<title>By: Michael Ozanne</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2010/11/11/y2k-re-visited/#comment-245563</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Michael Ozanne]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 15 Nov 2010 10:31:58 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://climateaudit.org/?p=12345#comment-245563</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[As someone who in auto-manufacturing had to put up with capability studies, guage R&amp;R, calibration traceability, control charting etc ad nauseum. Can I just ask the default question, why is it ever necessary to adjust instrument data if it&#039;s believed that the device is working properly, is in calibration and is being operated with a sound measurement method ? I can understand that the results might be classed as the result of an assignable cause. I can understand that you might check the guage decide it&#039;s gone wonky or the method is unreliable and strike the results from calculation. But I don&#039;t quite get why they should be altered....... Am I being obtuse here? but surely the results are the results?]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>As someone who in auto-manufacturing had to put up with capability studies, guage R&amp;R, calibration traceability, control charting etc ad nauseum. Can I just ask the default question, why is it ever necessary to adjust instrument data if it&#8217;s believed that the device is working properly, is in calibration and is being operated with a sound measurement method ? I can understand that the results might be classed as the result of an assignable cause. I can understand that you might check the guage decide it&#8217;s gone wonky or the method is unreliable and strike the results from calculation. But I don&#8217;t quite get why they should be altered&#8230;&#8230;. Am I being obtuse here? but surely the results are the results?</p>
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		<title>By: Brian H</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2010/11/11/y2k-re-visited/#comment-245542</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Brian H]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 14 Nov 2010 00:58:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://climateaudit.org/?p=12345#comment-245542</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The (AGW) future is certain. Only the past is subject to adjustment.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The (AGW) future is certain. Only the past is subject to adjustment.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>By: Richard Drake</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2010/11/11/y2k-re-visited/#comment-245500</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Richard Drake]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 12 Nov 2010 12:06:31 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://climateaudit.org/?p=12345#comment-245500</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Ha. He doesn&#039;t get a mention in &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.ohloh.net/blog/worlds_oldest_source_code_repositories&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;The World&#039;s Oldest Source Code Repositories&lt;/a&gt; but isn&#039;t that typical, the real pioneers never get any credit. (It&#039;s a cool lineup, if you&#039;re into that kind of thing.)]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Ha. He doesn&#8217;t get a mention in <a href="http://www.ohloh.net/blog/worlds_oldest_source_code_repositories" rel="nofollow">The World&#8217;s Oldest Source Code Repositories</a> but isn&#8217;t that typical, the real pioneers never get any credit. (It&#8217;s a cool lineup, if you&#8217;re into that kind of thing.)</p>
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