Comments on: Steig’s Trick

By: Early Christmas Gift From The Warmista!!! Blast From The Past!!! WAIS Again!!! | suyts space

Mon, 24 Dec 2012 17:38:06 +0000

[...] a look at the raw temp record from Byrd, and a couple of the locations. You can find this here and several other [...]

By: Matters of Fact « the Air Vent

Matters of Fact « the Air Vent — Sat, 23 Jul 2011 13:28:37 +0000

[...] to my post on Feb 7, 2010 here, Steig informed me by email that he had not seen our Response to his Third [...]

By: test

test — Tue, 15 Mar 2011 21:39:07 +0000

Thanks, it worked after I changed the working directory and uncommented downData() function in file RO10 Code.txt as advised by Nick on March 3rd post.

By: test

test — Tue, 15 Mar 2011 19:33:54 +0000

Provided R code is not working:
rls.grid = recon.rls[[1]][, grid.locs]
Error: object ‘recon.rls’ not found
> colnames(rls.grid) = grid.names
Error in colnames(rls.grid) = grid.names : object ‘rls.grid’ not found
>
> ### Get the data from the S09 reconstruction
>
> S09.grid = saved.S09.recon[, grid.locs]
Error: object ‘saved.S09.recon’ not found
> colnames(S09.grid) = grid.names
Error in colnames(S09.grid) = grid.names : object ‘S09.grid’ not found
>
> ### Calculate stats
>
> eigen.stats = getStats(grid.orig, eigen.grid, idx)[[1]]
Error in getStats(grid.orig, eigen.grid, idx) :
object ‘grid.orig’ not found
> rls.stats = getStats(grid.orig, rls.grid, idx)[[1]]
Error in getStats(grid.orig, rls.grid, idx) :
object ‘grid.orig’ not found
> S09.stats = getStats(grid.orig, S09.grid, idx)[[1]]
Error in getStats(grid.orig, S09.grid, idx) :
object ‘grid.orig’ not found
>
> ### Calculate stats for just 1957 – 1981
>
> eigen.stats.57.81 = getStats(grid.orig[1:300, ], eigen.grid[1:300, ], idx[1:300, ])[[1]]
Error in getStats(grid.orig[1:300, ], eigen.grid[1:300, ], idx[1:300, :
object 'grid.orig' not found
> rls.stats.57.81 = getStats(grid.orig[1:300, ], rls.grid[1:300, ], idx[1:300, ])[[1]]
Error in getStats(grid.orig[1:300, ], rls.grid[1:300, ], idx[1:300, ]) :
object ‘grid.orig’ not found
> S09.stats.57.81 = getStats(grid.orig[1:300, ], S09.grid[1:300, ], idx[1:300, ])[[1]]
Error in getStats(grid.orig[1:300, ], S09.grid[1:300, ], idx[1:300, ]) :
object ‘grid.orig’ not found
>
> ### Calculate stats for just 1982 – 2006
>
> eigen.stats.82.06 = getStats(grid.orig[301:600, ], eigen.grid[301:600, ], idx[301:600, ])[[1]]
Error in getStats(grid.orig[301:600, ], eigen.grid[301:600, ], idx[301:600, :
object 'grid.orig' not found
> rls.stats.82.06 = getStats(grid.orig[301:600, ], rls.grid[301:600, ], idx[301:600, ])[[1]]
Error in getStats(grid.orig[301:600, ], rls.grid[301:600, ], idx[301:600, :
object 'grid.orig' not found
> S09.stats.82.06 = getStats(grid.orig[301:600, ], S09.grid[301:600, ], idx[301:600, ])[[1]]
Error in getStats(grid.orig[301:600, ], S09.grid[301:600, ], idx[301:600, :
object 'grid.orig' not found
>
>
> ###==============================================
> ### EIGEN AND RLS SATELLITE STATS FOR COMPARISON
> ###==============================================
>
> ### Compare EIGEN and RLS vs. satellite
>
> eigen.sat.stats = getStats(makeAnom(all.avhrr), window(recon.eigen[[1]], start = 1982))
Error in inherits(x, “ts”) : object ‘all.avhrr’ not found
> rls.sat.stats = getStats(makeAnom(all.avhrr), window(recon.rls[[1]], start = 1982))
Error in inherits(x, “ts”) : object ‘all.avhrr’ not found
>
> ### Compare S09 unspliced solution vs. satellite
>
> S09.sat.stats = getStats(makeAnom(all.avhrr), window(recon.S09[[1]], start = 1982))
Error in inherits(x, “ts”) : object ‘all.avhrr’ not found
>
>
> ################################################################################
> ###################### END VERIFICATION ######################
> ################################################################################

By: B. Kindseth

B. Kindseth — Thu, 03 Mar 2011 22:51:32 +0000

Thanks Nick, That worked

By: Nick Stokes

Nick Stokes — Thu, 03 Mar 2011 20:54:34 +0000

Re: B. Kindseth (Mar 3 14:22), BK, there's a function call in there called downData() which has been commented out. If you restore that, it will fetch the files (once you have them, you can comment it out again). The files come from Eric Steig's site.

By: B. Kindseth

B. Kindseth — Thu, 03 Mar 2011 19:22:30 +0000

I tried running your code as you described above. I used R10 Code.txt as opposed to R10 Script (old).R. Is that correct? I also had to download aws.Rdata and manned.Rdata. Then I got a message “cannot open file” READER_groundstations.txt.”" Which I cannot find on the website. I also tried R10 Script (old).R and got the same message.

By: kgnd & Cross-Validation – By Ryan ODonnell « the Air Vent

kgnd & Cross-Validation – By Ryan ODonnell « the Air Vent — Mon, 28 Feb 2011 22:26:06 +0000

[...] (excepting, perhaps, the erroneous calculation of the Byrd station trend, which we evaluated here). Steig – as per usual – doesn’t do calculations to evaluate his own claim. He simply [...]

By: Jockdownsouth

Jockdownsouth — Wed, 23 Feb 2011 18:31:34 +0000

I’m not a scientist but have read and appreciated The Hockey Stick Illusion, and am a regular reader of this and other blogs. As I understand it neither Steve McIntyre nor Ryan O’Donnell is claiming they have better results than Mann, Steig & the team. Rather they are saying, “your methodology is flawed, so the results can’t be relied upon”.

I’ve dug up an old Guardian piece lauding Steig et al 09 -
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/jan/21/global-warming-antarctica?INTCMP=SRCH

The article incudes the following paragraph -
“Steig’s team found the mathematical relationships between the weather station data and satellite data, tested them, and then used them to go back in time to estimate temperatures across the continent back to 1957. Their statistical model has now been validated by an ice core drilled into the Rutford ice stream in West Antarctica by the British Antarctic Survey, from which temperature records can be measured. That independent work also came up with a warming of 0.17C a decade for the region, and stretched the trend back to at least 1930.”

I haven’t seen any mention of this point in any of the various recent posts and wonder if Ryan or one of his colleagues could comment on whether it does or doesn’t validate either Steig’s work or O’Donnell et al’s work.

By: Ryan O

Ryan O — Wed, 23 Feb 2011 14:47:06 +0000

By the way, if you wish to start with a physical reason for this behavior, start with winds.

The winds in Antarctica heat the ice surface due to friction. This is one of the reasons a strong (> 3 degree) gradient can be observed in air temperature as one proceeds from the ice surface to a few meters above the ice surface. Slight differences in sensor height (or extreme, like whether the sensor is at a manned station – where the height is maintained – or an AWS station which can get buried in the snow) can cause massive (in terms of trend) errors when attempting to simply splice two raw data sets together. This means sensors at exactly the same geographic location can show multi-degree differences.

Of course, Google maps won’t tell you that.