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	<title>Comments on: Troy: Dessler(2010) &#8220;artifact of combining two flux calculations&#8221;</title>
	<atom:link href="http://climateaudit.org/2011/09/21/troy-dessler2010-artifact-of-combining-two-flux-calculations/feed/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>http://climateaudit.org/2011/09/21/troy-dessler2010-artifact-of-combining-two-flux-calculations/</link>
	<description>by Steve McIntyre</description>
	<lastBuildDate>Wed, 19 Jun 2013 17:55:02 +0000</lastBuildDate>
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		<title>By: Nick Stokes</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2011/09/21/troy-dessler2010-artifact-of-combining-two-flux-calculations/#comment-305022</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Nick Stokes]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 25 Sep 2011 12:50:49 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://climateaudit.org/?p=14611#comment-305022</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Troy,
 Belatedly responding to your list:
 1) Slight dry bias - I don&#039;t see why it should be slight.
 2) Bias positive? I don&#039;t know how the effect on the &lt;i&gt;trend&lt;/i&gt; can be determined.
 3)Yes
 4) No - I don&#039;t agree with the logic of Fig 1, and Fig 2 has causation issues. I think you suggest that clear-sky albedo changes are not cloud related, but they could well be. I suspect a big factor in monthly fluctuations is just how cloudy it has been over land relative to sea. Land albedo is much higher and if some goes missing from the clear-sky set for a cloudy month, it makes a difference.
 5,6)  As for 4.
 7)  Not sure.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Troy,<br />
 Belatedly responding to your list:<br />
 1) Slight dry bias &#8211; I don&#8217;t see why it should be slight.<br />
 2) Bias positive? I don&#8217;t know how the effect on the <i>trend</i> can be determined.<br />
 3)Yes<br />
 4) No &#8211; I don&#8217;t agree with the logic of Fig 1, and Fig 2 has causation issues. I think you suggest that clear-sky albedo changes are not cloud related, but they could well be. I suspect a big factor in monthly fluctuations is just how cloudy it has been over land relative to sea. Land albedo is much higher and if some goes missing from the clear-sky set for a cloudy month, it makes a difference.<br />
 5,6)  As for 4.<br />
 7)  Not sure.</p>
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		<title>By: Nick Stokes</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2011/09/21/troy-dessler2010-artifact-of-combining-two-flux-calculations/#comment-305021</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Nick Stokes]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 25 Sep 2011 12:31:20 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://climateaudit.org/?p=14611#comment-305021</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Troy, the more I think about it, the less I understand why regressing against TPW makes sense. The bias argument is that clear sky regions are drier and so presumably have higher outgoing LW (coming from lower, warmer). Why should TPW, a global average, help? 
 
 You could say that maybe when TPW is high the differences might be proportionately higher, but the TPW changes are proportionately small, and are also unlikely to be globally distributed in any one month. In fact, I suspect the fluctuations are due to monsoons.
 
 You&#039;ve mentioned some spatial arguments from SB08, but there&#039;s no spatial data here. I just can&#039;t see it.
 
 A better regressor might be total cloudiness. But it would need careful interpretation.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Troy, the more I think about it, the less I understand why regressing against TPW makes sense. The bias argument is that clear sky regions are drier and so presumably have higher outgoing LW (coming from lower, warmer). Why should TPW, a global average, help? </p>
<p> You could say that maybe when TPW is high the differences might be proportionately higher, but the TPW changes are proportionately small, and are also unlikely to be globally distributed in any one month. In fact, I suspect the fluctuations are due to monsoons.</p>
<p> You&#8217;ve mentioned some spatial arguments from SB08, but there&#8217;s no spatial data here. I just can&#8217;t see it.</p>
<p> A better regressor might be total cloudiness. But it would need careful interpretation.</p>
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		<title>By: Kenneth Fritsch</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2011/09/21/troy-dessler2010-artifact-of-combining-two-flux-calculations/#comment-304765</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Kenneth Fritsch]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 23 Sep 2011 16:26:33 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://climateaudit.org/?p=14611#comment-304765</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I am not at all sure what Troy does professionally, but I think we have seen the lack of sensitivity testing in climate science papers, and later done by those outside the science, as being problematic of that science.  I suppose one not writing these papers should tread carefully in attempting to understand why these tests, which seem rather obvious after the fact, were not undertaken by the original author(s).  I suspect if we saw the same number of countervailing papers (to the AGW consensus) we might see these same problems. 

I suspect it has to do with the author attempting to make a quick point or counter point.  As long as the authors involved are willing to rationally discuss the results of these tests, I think the science progresses.  If the authors, on the other hand, appear to fear that admitting a mistake (and correcting it) puts doubt into a general thesis that they might hold, and thus ignore or obscure the critics, I think the science suffers.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I am not at all sure what Troy does professionally, but I think we have seen the lack of sensitivity testing in climate science papers, and later done by those outside the science, as being problematic of that science.  I suppose one not writing these papers should tread carefully in attempting to understand why these tests, which seem rather obvious after the fact, were not undertaken by the original author(s).  I suspect if we saw the same number of countervailing papers (to the AGW consensus) we might see these same problems. </p>
<p>I suspect it has to do with the author attempting to make a quick point or counter point.  As long as the authors involved are willing to rationally discuss the results of these tests, I think the science progresses.  If the authors, on the other hand, appear to fear that admitting a mistake (and correcting it) puts doubt into a general thesis that they might hold, and thus ignore or obscure the critics, I think the science suffers.</p>
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		<title>By: Geoff Sherrington</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2011/09/21/troy-dessler2010-artifact-of-combining-two-flux-calculations/#comment-304697</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Geoff Sherrington]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 23 Sep 2011 03:02:42 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://climateaudit.org/?p=14611#comment-304697</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[It seems that radiation comparisons are being made on a whole of sky basis and that this introduces complications. Ignorant question - is it possible to compare clear sky with cloudy sky by successive samplings along a satellite traverse, which constrains a number of variables that otherwise enter into a whole of sky comparison? I&#039;m still concerned by S/N ratios in these recent papers.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>It seems that radiation comparisons are being made on a whole of sky basis and that this introduces complications. Ignorant question &#8211; is it possible to compare clear sky with cloudy sky by successive samplings along a satellite traverse, which constrains a number of variables that otherwise enter into a whole of sky comparison? I&#8217;m still concerned by S/N ratios in these recent papers.</p>
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		<title>By: David L. Hagen</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2011/09/21/troy-dessler2010-artifact-of-combining-two-flux-calculations/#comment-304676</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[David L. Hagen]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 23 Sep 2011 00:48:48 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://climateaudit.org/?p=14611#comment-304676</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Judith Curry has posted &lt;a href=&quot;http://judithcurry.com/2011/09/21/cloud-wars/&quot; / rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;&quot;Cloud Wars&quot;&lt;/a&gt; at Climate Etc. including Richard Allen, Dessler, Spencer etc.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Judith Curry has posted <a href="http://judithcurry.com/2011/09/21/cloud-wars/" / rel="nofollow">&#8220;Cloud Wars&#8221;</a> at Climate Etc. including Richard Allen, Dessler, Spencer etc.</p>
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		<title>By: Vincent Guerrini PhD</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2011/09/21/troy-dessler2010-artifact-of-combining-two-flux-calculations/#comment-304613</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Vincent Guerrini PhD]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 22 Sep 2011 20:36:54 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://climateaudit.org/?p=14611#comment-304613</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Some edifying information which should put this to rest (or not?)
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/09/22/ipcc-models-hadcrut-and-cherrymandering/#more-47911]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Some edifying information which should put this to rest (or not?)<br />
<a href="http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/09/22/ipcc-models-hadcrut-and-cherrymandering/#more-47911" rel="nofollow">http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/09/22/ipcc-models-hadcrut-and-cherrymandering/#more-47911</a></p>
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		<title>By: troyca</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2011/09/21/troy-dessler2010-artifact-of-combining-two-flux-calculations/#comment-304503</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[troyca]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 22 Sep 2011 16:19:38 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://climateaudit.org/?p=14611#comment-304503</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Nick,

Re: the actual significant of the cloud feedback from the change in clear-sky - all-sky (and cloudiness weighting), this is an interesting point to consider (I&#039;ve been pondering it myself), but as you know this is the method that Dessler10 uses, claiming that &quot;this definition of the cloud feedback is a standard approach for quantifying feedbacks [26]&quot;.  That reference 26 might be a good place to start when looking more in-depth at it, and while I&#039;m happy to pursue this avenue for interest, understand that it is unrelated to the critiques I&#039;ve made of Dessler10 up to this point.

Re: the whole-globe water vapor thing, if you look at the figures in the SB08 &quot;dry-bias&quot; paper (particularly figure 5), the effect seems to be global, and we should be able to detect the difference in global water vapor.  Yes, there are areas where the effect is stronger (northern hemisphere mid-latitudes), yet it seems rather impossible that the dry-bias would show up in such a way as to be correlated with temperature (as it must if it going to create a bias in the cloud feedback calculations) but uncorrelated with global water vapor, particularly when global water vapor and temperature are so strongly correlated.  Still, if you want to propose a different test, such as using the precipitable water for the midlatitudes of the northern hemisphere, I welcome your input.

I would also note that while the &quot;perfect&quot; test may discover some greater percentage of the difference between ERA-clear sky and CERES-clear sky coming from a humidity correction, the bulk of the difference still comes from the short-wave clear-sky fluxes, unrelated to any dry bias referenced.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Nick,</p>
<p>Re: the actual significant of the cloud feedback from the change in clear-sky &#8211; all-sky (and cloudiness weighting), this is an interesting point to consider (I&#8217;ve been pondering it myself), but as you know this is the method that Dessler10 uses, claiming that &#8220;this definition of the cloud feedback is a standard approach for quantifying feedbacks [26]&#8220;.  That reference 26 might be a good place to start when looking more in-depth at it, and while I&#8217;m happy to pursue this avenue for interest, understand that it is unrelated to the critiques I&#8217;ve made of Dessler10 up to this point.</p>
<p>Re: the whole-globe water vapor thing, if you look at the figures in the SB08 &#8220;dry-bias&#8221; paper (particularly figure 5), the effect seems to be global, and we should be able to detect the difference in global water vapor.  Yes, there are areas where the effect is stronger (northern hemisphere mid-latitudes), yet it seems rather impossible that the dry-bias would show up in such a way as to be correlated with temperature (as it must if it going to create a bias in the cloud feedback calculations) but uncorrelated with global water vapor, particularly when global water vapor and temperature are so strongly correlated.  Still, if you want to propose a different test, such as using the precipitable water for the midlatitudes of the northern hemisphere, I welcome your input.</p>
<p>I would also note that while the &#8220;perfect&#8221; test may discover some greater percentage of the difference between ERA-clear sky and CERES-clear sky coming from a humidity correction, the bulk of the difference still comes from the short-wave clear-sky fluxes, unrelated to any dry bias referenced.</p>
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		<title>By: tetris</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2011/09/21/troy-dessler2010-artifact-of-combining-two-flux-calculations/#comment-304444</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[tetris]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 22 Sep 2011 11:42:20 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://climateaudit.org/?p=14611#comment-304444</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I had a look at the paper.  The principal problem remains that it is multi-model based, which leaves us with the incontrovertible GIGO issue inherent in all model based studies.  [see my comment above regarding the recent model based study - with NB Trenberth as co author- that purports to show that the missing heat is hiding in the deep ocean].]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I had a look at the paper.  The principal problem remains that it is multi-model based, which leaves us with the incontrovertible GIGO issue inherent in all model based studies.  [see my comment above regarding the recent model based study - with NB Trenberth as co author- that purports to show that the missing heat is hiding in the deep ocean].</p>
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		<title>By: Nick Stokes</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2011/09/21/troy-dessler2010-artifact-of-combining-two-flux-calculations/#comment-304439</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Nick Stokes]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 22 Sep 2011 10:15:50 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://climateaudit.org/?p=14611#comment-304439</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I recommend reading the recent &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/cms-filesystem-action/user_files/gav/publications/sv11_cloudfb.pdf&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;GRL paper&lt;/a&gt; of Soden and Vecchi. It&#039;s model-based, but very informative on feedback/forcing, methods for CRF handling, and has an elaborate presentation of results.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I recommend reading the recent <a href="http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/cms-filesystem-action/user_files/gav/publications/sv11_cloudfb.pdf" rel="nofollow">GRL paper</a> of Soden and Vecchi. It&#8217;s model-based, but very informative on feedback/forcing, methods for CRF handling, and has an elaborate presentation of results.</p>
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		<title>By: Patrick M.</title>
		<link>http://climateaudit.org/2011/09/21/troy-dessler2010-artifact-of-combining-two-flux-calculations/#comment-304418</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Patrick M.]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 22 Sep 2011 04:59:29 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://climateaudit.org/?p=14611#comment-304418</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I think I can speak for the whole world when I say, Thank you, Nick, Steve, Troy, Mosher et al. for approaching climate science as scientists!  You don&#039;t have to agree, just be fair.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I think I can speak for the whole world when I say, Thank you, Nick, Steve, Troy, Mosher et al. for approaching climate science as scientists!  You don&#8217;t have to agree, just be fair.</p>
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