Sorry for both the radio silence and the lack of notice. No one reason, but a combination of things.
As I mentioned in passing about five weeks ago, I was sick for a while. Nothing serious, just a seasonal cold/flu. But it totally sapped all my energy for about two weeks. I’d mostly recovered about 8 days before the US Squash Doubles, which I’d committed to in the fall. I’ve had one leg injury after another this season and haven’t played much squash this winter and, when I’ve played, my play has been spotty at best. And with the flu, I wasn’t in good shape. So I was a bit embarrassed at my condition and apologized to my partner in advance. To make matters worse, even though we were second seeds, we had a hard draw. We eked out a win in the quarters, 15-13 in the fifth. We had a good win in the semis against a team that has won dozens of championships. In the final, we played the top seeds (we had lost to them in the final last year, points in the 5th; and had lost to them 4 times in a row in finals.) We fell behind 2-0, but prolonged the match to the 5th. Tied 13-13 in the 5th, lost the next point. Match point against. Won the next two points and the championship (over-60s).
We felt pretty good afterwards, but I paid a price over the next 2 weeks. The final went for nearly 2 hours and I’m not in shape to play that long. So I was playing on fumes. And because I was excited about winning, I didn’t do a long stretch afterwards. I also had to catch a plane back to Toronto from New York. My legs totally froze up the next day and gave secondary pain in my knees, my back. It hurt to do anything. I waited to long to get physio. In the second week, I finally got physio to get ready to play in the Canadians. I was able to get on the court but neither of us played well and we lost in the first round to an unseeded team. The combination of results caused some amusement in the squash doubles community. I ended up aggravating injuries and have been pretty miserable for the past two weeks. Nothing serious and nothing that proper physio can’t deal with.
Meanwhile, I’ve been very busy with mining business. I’m not very good at compartmentalizing things and like to work on one thing at a time. I’ve also lost energy as I get older and the blogging took a back seat.
I had also spent some time considering a response to Mann’s book. It amazes me that a reputable scientific community would take this sort of diatribe seriously. Mann’s world is populated by demons and bogey-men. People like Anthony Watts, Jeff Id, Lucia, Andrew Montford and myself are believed to be instruments of a massive fossil fuel disinformation campaign and our readers are said to be “ground troops” of disinformation. The book is an extended ad hominem attack, culminating in salivation in the trumped up plagiarism campaign against Wegman, arising out of copying of trivial “boilerplate” by students (not Wegman himself). Wegman’s name nearly 200 times in the book (more, I think, than anyone else’s).
Virtually nothing in its discussion of our criticism can be taken at face value. Mann begins his account by re-cycling his original outright lie that we had asked him for an “excel spreadsheet”. Mann’s lies on this point had been a controversy back in November 2003. The incident was revived by the Penn State Investigation Committee, which had (anomalously on this point) asked Mann about an actual incident. Instead of “forgetting”, as any prudent person would have done, Mann brazenly repeated his earlier lie to the Penn State Investigation Committee. Needless to say, the “Investigation” Committee didn’t actually investigate the lie by crosschecking evidence, but accepted Mann’s testimony as ending the matter. In the book, instead of leaving well enough alone, Mann once again re-iterated the lie.
Or to pick another example, Mann noted the controversy about the contaminated Korttajarvi sediments (Tiljander), but conceded nothing. Mann said that there was no “upside down” in their “objective” methods and asserted that his results were “insensitive to whether or not these records were used”, a statement contradicted in the SI to Mann et al 2009. In any sane world, Mann would have issued a retraction of the many claims of Mann et al 2008 that depended on the contaminated Korttajarvi sediments. But instead, more attacks on critics.
Picking all the spitballs off the wall is laborious, to say the least.
Perhaps because I was sick, perhaps because I was tired, but, for whatever reason, one day I woke up and I was sick and tired both of the Team and the broader “climate community” that enables them and in which they thrive. I sense that the wider public has a similar attitude.
I’m starting to feel a little better now that spring is coming. I’ll start posting again in a couple of weeks, but doubt that I’ll ever post as much as I have in the past.
Climate Audit 
162 Comments
An antidote to Mann’s book is my book: The Climate Debate available at
Welcome back, and stay well. The most recent flu strain was energy sapping for a long period, just when one thought it was gone it snuck back. What a pain when one realises that the age of 25 was long ago.
Good call Steve!
Your efforts are historic. Don’t worry about handing over the reins.
Excellent work Sir.
I have very much appreciated your work over many years now. I hope to see the Climate Audit brand continue to be vigorous. Maybe more guest posts from people like Hu can keep the high quality auditing continuing with frequent posts.
Steve
There may be snow on the mountain but there’s still a fire in the cave?
The post above is a bit scarce on content, you only covered sport, medical matters, alleged plagiarism, decent people, a liar and hubris. 🙂
You make a good point regarding warming up before an activity and stretching after. I know the feeling.
Take care
As a professional scientist (an experimental particle physicist) I’ve been impressed by your efforts in this field. Your hockey stick work turned my preconception that peer review worked in climatology as it does in my field on its head. It also demonstrated that its easy for supposed experts to be inexpert when it comes to the following the scientific method when analysing raw data. This is something I try to continually keep in mind when conducting my own research.
If you ever decide to give up on this blog please make sure the blog itself plus associated files are archived. Historians of science will be interested.
Steve. You take care of yourself. The world generally owes you a debt of gratitiude for all you’ve done and we’re all looking fwd to having you back in the saddle, even for a more limited engagement.
Warm Regards, Randizzle
First and foremost – recover your health altogether. Without it there is little enjoyment of anything.
Second – it seems to me that if Michael Mann’s current efforts are to present sound science, none of it makes any sense. But if his current efforts are to keep himself out of jail, it all makes perfects sense.
Carry on sir. Best to you.
ps – congratulations on your squash wins.
We’re glad to see you back, sir
You have many loyal “clients”
And we all seek the answer
In restoring truth to science
Your health’s a crucial issue
(And congrats, too, on the win!)
The Climate Wall’s a tissue
That’s dissolving into spin
You’re right, the public’s tired
They are seeing through the cracks:
Catastrophists have fired
Back with furious attacks
I hope to see you back in form
Like when you were beginning
You’ve steered through “catastrophic” storm
And, with your help, we’re winning!
===|==============/ Keith DeHavelle
So very glad you won the US over 60s Doubles Championship. A real testament to your grit and determination.
We are in no way surprised that you are heartily sick of the deliberate obtuseness and rank dishonesty of the Manns of this world.
Slowing down with respect to Climate Audit sounds perfectly reasonable so long as it is properly archived — as others have already suggested.
Some of us still hope that — without wanting to be pushy — you might see your way clear to writing a rebuttal book (e-book style perhaps) to Mann’s disgraceful and deliberately unscientific ad hominem diatribe.
Well done on the win! Sounds like a very exciting match.
I still wonder if Michael Mann is being set up. But I think your summation of the public mood is accurate.
Well done Josh… Where’s the THUMBS UP button when you need one, lol.
I’m very tired of the ‘climate dance’ and the ‘silence of the scientists’..
And Andrew Montford just made the Desmogblog, Deniers ‘Disinformation Database’
where are the silent scientists saying that is unacceptable, Freeman Dyson, HApper, Harrison Schmitt, Lomborg, Christy,(or anybody!) all tagged and labelled as climate denier, disinformation, and part of the denial industry..
On a brighter note..
THIS should cheer a few people up…
http://worldnews.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/04/23/11144098-gaia-scientist-james-lovelock-i-was-alarmist-about-climate-change
If only to watch the reaction from climate scientists (many more moderate ones I think will be relieved) and the environmentalists some who will just tear into him.
fun quotes from James Lovelock:
‘Gaia’ scientist James Lovelock: I was ‘alarmist’ about climate change
“The problem is we don’t know what the climate is doing. We thought we knew 20 years ago. That led to some alarmist books – mine included – because it looked clear-cut, but it hasn’t happened,” Lovelock said.
“The climate is doing its usual tricks. There’s nothing much really happening yet. We were supposed to be halfway toward a frying world now,” he said.
“The world has not warmed up very much since the millennium. Twelve years is a reasonable time… it (the temperature) has stayed almost constant, whereas it should have been rising — carbon dioxide is rising, no question about that,” he added.
He pointed to Gore’s “An Inconvenient Truth” and Tim Flannery’s “The Weather Makers” as other examples of “alarmist” forecasts of the future.
Asked if he was now a climate skeptic, Lovelock told msnbc.com: “It depends what you mean by a skeptic. I’m not a denier.”
He said human-caused carbon dioxide emissions were driving an increase in the global temperature, but added that the effect of the oceans was not well enough understood and could have a key role.
“It (the sea) could make all the difference between a hot age and an ice age,” he said.
He said he still thought that climate change was happening, but that its effects would be felt farther in the future than he previously thought.
“We will have global warming, but it’s been deferred a bit,” Lovelock said.
‘I made a mistake’
As “an independent and a loner,” he said he did not mind saying “All right, I made a mistake.” He claimed a university or government scientist might fear an admission of a mistake would lead to the loss of funding.
“I’m very tired of the ‘climate dance’ and the ‘silence of the scientists’…” You may be tired of it, but it has me climbing the walls. Desmogblog’s deniers database isn’t something that was assembled out of an omnipresent untraceable corruption accusation, it stems entirely from one of the main guys at Desmog, Ross Gelbspan, and it goes back to 1992 when Al Gore and Gelbspan were trying to figure out how to smack down Fred Singer.
Gleick, and the ties to Desmog ( http://www.americanthinker.com/2012/02/fakegate_opens_a_door.html ) presents the opportunity of a lifetime to go beyond mere denials of ‘corrupt industry influence’: we need to show the world how AGW pushers have only had this ONE single fallback position in telling the public to ignore skeptics. We can point to devastating skeptic science assessments all day long, but those will always be beaten back by the ‘skeptics are Exxon shills’ mantra UNLESS we go on the offensive and show how that accusation was orchestrated from the start by a tiny group of propaganda masters solely to frame the discussion away from faults in the IPCC. We have got to stop letting them steer the discussion with that accusation because it only places the skeptics on the defensive, and nobody gains any ground while taking a defensive position. It’s been sheer blind luck that no one has ever hammered them on defending the heart of their accusation ever since 1991.
Stay strong Steve, we need ya!
Steve,
Many thanks for all you have done and are still doing.
In considering the causes of your health problems, are you sure that it was a cold/flue that sapped your strength?
For most of my fairly long life I suffered frequent and severe colds — fever, bronchitis, sore throats, the works. It was not until I realized that I got one of those reactions every time I shoveled grain (especially when shoveling barley) that I began to look for alternative cause of such “cold/flue” symptoms.
Eventually I got those reactions every time I went to pick up our mail from town, which caused me to joke to my wife that I had become allergic to people. Upon analyzing that in greater detail, I found out that I had a perfume sensitivity that triggered my “colds”. Not just a sensitivity to perfume but to any scents given off by after-shave lotions, air fresheners, fabric softeners, car fresheners, scented candles, scented soaps, etc.
I read somewhere that there are about 50 million people in the US who have perfume sensitivities.
It may be worth your while to keep an eye open for that perhaps being the cause of your colds.
Great to see you in print again. I’ve been a bit like Greyfriars Bobby (http://www.scotland-welcomes-you.com/greyfriars_bobby.html), sitting by your bookmark, patiently awaiting your return.
I do hope that you’ll be soon be refreshed enough to use the “nil carborundum” approach to continue to hound the Warmist camp till they eventually give in. The tenacity and competitiveness displayed on the squash court will clearly come in handy
“It amazes me that a reputable scientific community would take this sort of diatribe seriously.”
It is amazing that anything involving Mann is taken seriously by the scientific community. I believe Judith Curry has indicated that she finds the wholesale embrace of the hockey stick to be really curious. As well as his extraordinarily quick rise up the professional ladder. None of it makes any sense from a science perspective (political explanation is another matter).
I have to think that those scientists who still value their reputation for integrity are just sick about what Mann and the team have done to science. I understand why most are afraid to turn themselves into targets. But unless and until they muster the courage to stand up for science (or build a big enough group to go public at the same time), they continue to degrade the profession and themselves. It must be very discouraging for them.
I am an environmental consultant with degrees in biology and civil engineering who has chosen to work in this field because I see the environment as an irreplaceable resource that enriches all aspects of our lives. I earned my degrees at a time when rigorous peer review was as axiomatic as the multiplication tables. Since the mid-1980s I have seen the wholesale abandonment of an honest debate on the subject of anthropogenic climate change. Now I have witnessed the abandonment of an honest debate morph into a rabid vendetta against a man who simply wanted the data.
If there are legitimate reasons for the implementation of more environmental regulations, I understand. However, it appears to me that there are many who would knowingly poison the well of scientific inquiry and review to advance their agenda, for whatever “higher” reason.
Mr. McIntyre, you have been an inspiration to me and many other proletarian engineers and scientists who simply want to hear a legitimate discussion of the subject. I have heard you speak and your neutral position with regard to the politics of the subject is clear. I believe you are an honest and honorable man and to me you have demonstrated the highest ideals of many of the great men and women of science. To quote the poet Chris Kristofferson, “Don’t let the s**ts get you down.”
What an emotional rollercoaster this entry is!
My years as a keen reader of your work has given me the emotional feeling that we are friends, even though you wouldn’t recognise me in the street. I’m sure many others of your readers feel the same way.
Though I worried about your absence, there are others who cared even more, such as those who asked Anthony Watts to check on you for them.
I was disappointed by your ‘flu, pleased with your squash victory, saddened by your loss, empathised with your pains, delighted to have you back, angered by the report of Mann’s dishonesty and horrified by your concluding remark.
I don’t want to, but I could force myself to do without reading climateaudit. To me, your work has been a valuable gift, and I know I have no claim on your time and labour. But I’m not sure the world can do without it. Your recognition as ‘A man who counts’ was surprising due to it’s source, not it’s accuracy.
Steve, please take care of you. Doing sports while having caught a common cold is a rather dangerous combination, in particular if the common cold in fact was an influenza.
Happy to hear from you again, Steve, I was concerned over your silence. Hope you can still contribute to the debate, as I sense that we are approaching a watershed moment. I understand your distaste for Mann et al, but that is all the more reason to stand up for good in this dark time for science.
” Old men forget; yet all shall be forgot,
But he’ll remember with advantages
What feats he did that day. Then shall our names,
Familiar in his mouth as household words,
Steve McIntyre, Jeff Id, and Anthony Watts,
Tallbloke and Curry, Jo Nova and Steve Mosher,
Be in their flowing cups freshly rememb’red.”
Take care of yourself.
I say it again, please write a book about your adventures, the website has more than enough material. I’m sure bish hill would help.
But remember, take care, although I’m sure you could beat me at squash and I’m in my 30s.
Steve,
Ive been an avid reader of your blog since I can remember, and as far as I can tell you are one of the few, if not the only person participating in this mess, with both the commitment to scientific truth, and the technical skills to get meaningful things done.
The world needs you Steve. Not that my ethical views lead me to believe that obliges you to do anything, but at least know that your work is appreciated. You are my hero, and I hope you will continue to find the energy to do the kind of work that you have been doing.
Sincerely,
Eelco
Check out the back and forth between Lindzen and Hopkins(?) over RLs presentation to UK Parliament – on Judith Curry’s blog. There are a few others who valiantly attempt to put things in perspective.
I am not sure if many here realize what a big deal it was for you and your partner to win the over-sixty US Squash Championship. That is a hell of a deal! You’all matched the best players in the world. I played handball for many years and have seen many world-class players on the court. There is no comparison to the even way-above average tournament player. My heartiest congratulations!
As for Mann; he will go down in the history of science as a total charlatan. Unfortunately, the world is full of them.
Syay well.
Err…”Stay” well.
I am very glad to see you back on deck and fighting fit. Congratulations on your effort in the US over-ssixties Doubles Championship. That’s another real testament to your strength and determination.
Don’t get combat fatigue on us. We need you.
If you were to pack it all in and say not another word, Steve, you’d still have done more for the cause of honesty and fair play than most of us could ever hope to.
I’d second what Walter Schneider said about allergies/sensitivities. In my case, I have to avoid saccharomyces cerevisiae (the yeast used in baking and brewing) like the plague; if I don’t, I get wiped out as if I have the ‘flu. If it rains, even if I don’t venture outside, that often makes me feel very tired (high humidity is conducive to fungal growth). Sugary foods can also be a problem as sugars are what yeast thrives on.
Allergies/sensitivities can be a complete pig to identify and address. There can be dozens of apparently unconnected things that cause problems. Trying to do too much when affected can also sap one’s energy reserves and make things worse still.
Congrats on collecting another title and I can empathize about the pains of recovery following the exertion of youth in an aging body.
As much as I have learned from this site, ranging from the properties of time series data to eigenvectors to the full meaning of bodge, I also appreciate the non-science posts as well. I never will watch The Great Escape without thinking about your post on the gentleman who was a part of it. Should you grow weary of posting on climate there are still many gifts that you have to share should you choose. I hope that you do.
re: “Sorry for both the radio silence and the lack of notice.”
Hope you feel better.
Apology? Your work has rescheduled and redirected the climate rhetoric. If you never write another post you have earned the right to complete satisfaction with your paleoclimate audit hobby.
I certainly appreciate the education opportunity you provide here and I apologize for my shortfall in technical contributions.
I too was becoming a little anxious by your absence, Steve, but you certainly don’t need to apologize to me. You set a good example to all, not just scientists and engineers.
I think your return is cause for little musical celebration.
God bless you, mate.
Oh no! First Breitbart and now this. It’s all just too much to take.
Just to even things up, “McIntyre” appears about 1,000 times in Montford’s HSI.
Thanks for the ride.
You can’t slow down now!
Aragorn: Hold your ground, hold your ground. Sons of Gondor, of Rohan, my brothers. I see in your eyes the same fear that would take the heart of me. A day may come when the courage of men fails, when we forsake our friends and break all bonds of fellowship, but it is not this day. An hour of woes and shattered shields, when the age of men comes crashing down, but it is not this day. This day we fight! By all that you hold dear on this good Earth, I bid you *stand, Men of the West!*
Please rejoin the battle, make them disclose all the data, you have them on the run.
I was thinking Mann’s a perfect match for the role of the Black Knight.
In the real world all Steve needs to do is walk on by. The work is already done.
I know my “contributions” here are completely useless, but I do read every post.
I am the ultimate “average Joe” here. I have no math skills to speak of, no scientific training at all, but your posts are accessible to me, and I appreciate that.
Many happy returns, Mr. McIntyre.
Even if you don’t find the energy to write another word, I think that your past contributions in exposing the gross dishonesty and/or incompetence of key alarmists will be seen as by far the most important contribution by any individual to derailing the whole gravy train.
You, in effect, converted the Hockey Stick from the proud banner of the alarmists into the equivalent of their original sin. To this day, there is no better stick to beat them with than the statistical abuses employed in its creation, and the hole they continue to dig for themselves in defending it and its offspring.
In fulfilling this role, your particular blend of great mathematical / scientific competence, understated persistence, and obvious sense of fair play and decency, have yielded results which probably wouldn’t have been possible had our champion been a more volatile and polarizing type. Talk about cometh the hour, cometh the man.
That said, please keep writing. The tide may be turning, but it certainly ain’t over yet.
“You, in effect, converted the Hockey Stick from the proud banner of the alarmists into the equivalent of their original sin. To this day, there is no better stick to beat them with….”
I have an idea for a powerful and aggressive visual image: a pair of upraised hands decisively snapping a hockey stick (with its blade upturned at the right). It is based on the well-known (to warmists) logo of the War Resisters League, in which the hands are snapping a rifle.
It’s a clear, clever “grabber.” It’s a way for people on our side to identify themselves and give a Bronx cheer to the climate consensus. It would be a great conversation-starter.
I donate this idea free. It would work for buttons, lapel pins, coffee cups, book covers, web-site medallions, and T-shirts too.
A preliminary but unsatisfactory-to-me version of this image, drawn at my request by S. Weasel, can be seen on my page on Photobucket at http://i7.photobucket.com/albums/y254/RogerKni/Misc/87a659ba.png (I hope the MODS will post it here as an image—I don’t have posting privileges.)
It needs the following changes, which I hope some graphics jockey will make and post here and elsewhere:
1. The legend around the perimeter should be larger and changed to “Gore Resisters’ League.” (This quip ought to irritate any warmists who see it.)
2. The hands should be redrawn so they don’t exactly copy the hands in the WRL’s logo.
3. There wrists should be shackled to each other, indicating our defiance despite our suppressed and marginalized status.
An alternative or subsidiary legend might be, “Get the puck outta here!”
Thank you…………….
You do this because it is fun, right?
It used to be fun for me. The unveiling of the hate in the Climategate emails and the dissembling “investigations” have changed things.
When it’s no longer fun, quit. Life is real; climate science isn’t.
Please don’t leave, Steve. I know it’s not fun because of all the hate — and I know you receive a lot. Imagine Mann winning.
neill, be kind.
Invocation of imagination of Mann is not fair; it’s cruel and unusual.
Steve has done many, many, times more than an apportioned full measure of duty.
Mann isn’t “winning” anything, anything worth having or wanting.
Steve’s been a giant pushback, helping reveal the malfeasance and non-science of the Team. Just imagine if he and McKittrick hadn’t stepped up. Cruel and unusual? Liars who succeed really bug me, especially regarding an issue as consequential as this. Looking forward to Steve’s future posting, at whatever level and pace he’s comfortable with.
neill, I agree!
Liars who succeed are only successful liars. Not winners.
That is only success in the field of lying.
Why not ignore climategate and Mann, and stick to what you seem to enjoy — investigating scientific methodology. That’s where your great impact is, anyhow. Leave the politics to those who relish it.
Those that relish politics are the last ones we want doing it.
But if called upon the right people will be ready…in a minute, lol.
There have been more than enough examples of people stepping up when nobody else will. Society honors them, too often posthumously.
Thankfully for us, a Canadian took the advice of a Brit…who had a Yankee mother…and wrote a bunch of stuff.
I think Steve has earned his place in history, IMHO.
“History will be kind to me for I intend to write it”
Steve, maybe it’s time for you to write a book. You’ve got enough to blow the whole enterprise sky-high. You could name the names and document the evidence.
Plus, you yourself are well-known and well-regarded. Your book would have the highest credibility. I’d guess any book by you would be well-received and, even with your measured prose, would probably be a bombshell. Your droll sense of humor would find a good outlet, too. 🙂
Agree!
This is a point Steve has made many times at different points along the way. I’m with jim in saying trust the internal fun-ometer. Give it as much time as it needs to recover, if it ever does. And thanks.
Steve
You have been faithful right through. Faithful in astounding circumstances. Some of my heroes have had “dark nights of the soul”. Elijah ran away. So did Moses. Harry Potter got fed up.
I’ve always seen the Climate Science arena as one of spiritual warfare, where I had to check out where the battle lines really lie, where my heart sings, and then clad my song in the language and practices of science. From the time I did a U-turn from alarmism, I realized it was a battle for integrity, a Hamlet-like experience of waking up to leadership that has been usurped and surrounded by rank stinking corruption.
Whatever you choose to do Steve, support is there, on both sides of reality.
Good to hear from you and that you are OK. From the lack of posts, I suspected you were quite busy.
I don’t mind if you don’t post as much as you used to, just as long as the quality of your analyses remains high!
Above all, enjoy yourself.
It’s pretty clear that Mann is constitutionally unable to concede even the tiniest point, but repeating bald-faced lies repeatedly? This seems pathological; the guy either has brass paper-weights or is in serious need of help. Wonder how long before even the inner circle starts to shun him.
Anyway, glad you’re back, and do take care of yourself. I believe the world will keep turning even if Steve McIntyre hangs up his spurs.
Steve, when the history of the “Climate Wars” is written, your key role will be certain to be acknowledged. I just hope we all live long enough to witness the politicians/MSM accept the reality of the limited human influence on climate (the general public seems to have come to this realisation over recent years.
In the meantime I wish you a speedy and full recovery (recently the Socialist muscles of the left hand side of my back went on strike, just before we undertook a 2,500km driving holiday. A visit to the physio ameliorated the issue and I coped with the driving very well.)
Finally, a personal thank you for your valuable contribution to the development of climate science.
So glad to hear from you – like many others, I was getting worried that something very bad had happened.
As someone who is also not in the springtime of life (although I’m a decade younger than you), I can attest that recovery takes longer than it used to, and it saps one’s morale. High achievers and perfectionists – not that I’m thinking of anyone in particular here 🙂 – experience this much more keenly than relative slobs like your correspondent.
Whether it’s getting over physical exertion, prolonged mental/psychic effort, illness or just a plain old hangover – the days of waking up the next day feeling 100% are well and truly gone. And it’s depressing, even to someone like me who has nowhere near your drive and actually enjoys doing not much for a few days or longer.
So, please be gentle on yourself and take it as it comes. As a PP said, if you never did another thing in this field you have already outstripped almost everyone. But, I suspect that one morning you will open your eyes and think – damn, where are those numbers on XYZ I’ve been meaning to look at?
It is a sign of your temporary debilitation that you let that creep Mann get to you. When you bounce back, I am sure that you will resume your sense of perspective about what an insignificant pygmy he really is. For, it is thus that he will be remembered (if at all) in the history of science.
Oh! I was referring to the playing squash.
But come to think of it the abuse you have taken is harder to understand.
But it does look to me like the tide is turning.
Thanks for what you do and have done. I really do thing you can claim some victory.
I recommend that you get this book – http://www.vitamindsportsbook.com/ so you’d play better and also not contract cold/flu. 🙂
It’s really easy to prevent cold/flu by simply taking 5000 IU of vitamin D a day (compared to 600 IU that is recommended by gov’t based on outdated studies.) http://www.vitamindcouncil.org/health-conditions/infections-and-autoimmunity/
I know much more about sport training and sports nutrition than I do about climate change so I figure I’d return a favor for fighting so hard against CAGW! I see that all the time in the nutritional world as well…
Good luck.
As per many others remarks, good to see you back and hope you recover fully and soon.
You have always set the benchmark for precise, scientific questioning of the methods and conclusions of various papers – would that all who have something to say on these matters were so civilised!
And once again, you need not apologise – although the explanation of your lack of posts is appreciated, your work speaks for itself, as all good science does. Take some more time off and get well – that’s the most important thing for you and your family. Your “extended internet family” of readers here will understand and I believe make the same suggestion (as many already have).
Congrats on squash!!
RE mann; don’t bother with him, conserve your energy for a worthy endeavor, and worthy opponents!
‘One small step for a Mann, one giant leap for mankind’ (the humans, you and the rest of us!)
…one giant leap for the mankind of
squash.
Steve: You don’t have to write the book, just edit it and be the “lead author.” You could (with their consent) include large portions written by others who’ve reviewed or commented on his book online.
PS: Here’s my suggested title: Mann Up!
Mr. McIntyre, I’ve never once commented on your site. I’ve never felt in the slightest sense versed enough to contribute more than idle boilerplate. I’ve just read. And read. And read. For many years. I’d like to say that for all that reading, I’m “caught up” on the most significant issues, but alas there’s just too much to examine, comprehend, and then retain. I still have to revisit many bookmarked pages on your site to refresh my memory and/or psych an issue out again.
But what you have done, more than anything, for this layman is make it clear—patently, obviously clear—just how *technically*, *scientifically*, and especially *statistically* wrong the arguments and studies on the alarmist side are. And through your patient, thorough dissections of the issues, I *have* begun to understand it from a fundamental level up, to the point that I can engage on this issue with those on the alarmist side who fancy themselves knowledgeable, and debated them to a draw. They run through their light quiver quickly and to their surprise have nothing left to address the issues you’ve raised.
The point of all this is that while you’ve made a change in the perception of the issue on a major scale, you’ve also made a change on the minor scale, which arguably can be just as, if not more, powerful. You’ve buttressed those of us who are working to change perceptions on an individual level, by making the technical arguments accessible to those of us who are interested enough to dig into them.
For all that, I thank and salute you for your service to a necessary, vital cause. I think it’s fair to say that few people have so singly been instrumental in holding the line against this quasi-scientific, ultra-political, ideological scourge. Obviously I hope you continue to stay engaged as long as you can, but whatever you choose to do from this point, to whatever extent you choose to take it, you have earned your rest.
I’ll part with the most memorable advice I’ve ever received from my father—all the more potent because he never, ever spoke this way—at a point early in my life when I felt outnumbered against forces seemingly beyond my control: “Don’t let the bastards get you down.”
Indeed. Yes, it should be enjoyable, but ultimately they only get from you what you allow them to have. They are the smallest of small people, and the weight of their opinions is proportionally as large. Don’t give them the pleasure of believing otherwise.
Don’t let the bastards get you down.
Clint
Steve my commiserations
I was in Toronto a few weeks back and proceeded to drag a nasty dirty cold back to calgary where it got another life, tossed me on my back for 2 days in Vancouver and then finally escaped down an ally in Hong Kong
I’m worried that its going to mutate into a newer avian flu outbreak
We admire your work and we detest the insidious influence of cheque book science so keep going, the battles are being won but it wont be over until the tilt on the IPCC edifice becomes too great.
Happy to send AMFO
Great to see you back, even if limited currently. Something tells me though that the next affront of a paper will bring back some of the old fire. Until then, conserve and marshal your energies. It is because of you that so many other able soldiers have stepped forward into the fray against the Charlatans of Climategate. They will continue the battle, but will look to you for inspiration. You don’t have to deliver the killing blow in the fight, but you have delivered many telling blows.
Steve. Try forgetting about climate science. Sit back, relax, a nice glass of wine and just chill out. Try it.
…..it doesn’t work. We all need a focus, it was never the quantity of posts that enthralled and inspired so many but the quality. Thank you from many I know in New Zealand who follow your blog.
I’m with those that say life must be fun, Steve. Find it wherever you can.
If a book will do it, that would be great. You’ve got enough material for a series. First one could be on phony official investigations.
But if not, you’ve earned a good break till inspiration strikes. Enjoy it.
Thanks for your massive contribution to the integrity of science.
Some psychologists talk of 5 stages of reaction to bad news. State 1: Denial and Isolation. State 2, Anger. State 3, Bargaining. State 4, Depression. State 5, Acceptance.
In these general terms, your start in statistics blogging was bound to be led by reactive events by others along a path like that above. So you had to move the themes of your essays as the social recognition changed, which took you into the semi-political/personality world. Some of those who should have taken your advice are moving to acceptance, but the lingering anger state is a reminder that some have a long way to go.
I mention this because as an early adopter of your blogging, I looked forward most of all to your new essays when they were on mathematical/statistical topics, perhaps because these are harder and sometimes have an outcome that is hard to argue. They are more pure than topics like plagiarism and pal review.
You have a special skill in the statistical method and I can but hope, selfishly, that when you make an occasional future foray into the blog world, it will be like the exciting, invigorating early stats years of Climate Audit. Thank you. Geoff.
Good to hear that you’re back and well! Couldn’t help noticing you using the L’word – there are limits to how much BS a gentleman can endure after all.
I too, like many who have already posted here do not have the scientific training to totally digest everything here but you have made so many climate matters so much clearer for me. Thank you so much for your efforts. I know it can’t have always been easy.
Years ago during a training course I attended we had a number of sessions related to executive health. The message that came from that was simply “make time to do those things which give you pleasure”. So I suggest that you fully recover from the cold/flu then take time to “smell the roses”.
You have done so much already.
Steve, many congratulations on the win. I’m glad it sounds like you are recovering from it!
It’s been one hell of a roller coaster ride following your work for the last – what – nine years? I’ve certainly learned a huge amount about not only certain interesting areas of climate science here, but also quite a bit about taking objective views of legal and process issues that are perhaps outside of my normal areas of expertise but actually pretty important in many areas of life. And of course it has been great to meet and converse with many sharp and thoughtful commentators who frequent your blog.
The astonishing levels of hatred from some elements within the hockey team is quite jaw-dropping at times and it is a wonder why so many in the climate community choose to let it happen. But it is only fair when talking about those that stay silent and let it happen, to mention the brave few that have taken a stand against it (such as Judith Curry), especially considering the extent to which Dr Curry is now directly and personally attacked by advocates.
I think given this it is easy to understand that the interesting topics under discussion are soured by this and that there is a loss of motivation to be involved in it. But I’m sure there will still be plenty of people dropping by and reading what you write, me included, whether the posts are about climate or something else, and no matter how infrequently they pop up 🙂
Steve, glad your feeling a bit better.
only to add to Spence_uk re – Judith Curry.
I remember some of the the posts where Judith started to engage with you & other commentaters & posts where real dendro/climate/time series experts contributed, turning points & your blog had a great influence on this from my point of view.
what you have achieved even with the stone walls erected & s**t reviews will stand the test of time.
you have devoted god known how many hours to be able to convince yourself that the evidence is good, that’s all you ever expected & wanted.
the “team” will soldier on, time to forget them, anybody with half a brain will from now on regard there output with suspicion.
take it easy & post when inclined.
PS
(with your experience) a post on fraking(shale gas/oil) from a mining POV with or without the co2 spin you be nice for us in the UK.
sorry – ignore if a pain.
Check for symptoms of 210Po, you know too much.
:-p
Steve, welcome back! I missed you, and am glad to hear you’re OK. Also, congratulations on the squash wins and losses; playing at that level is, well, awesome.
I haven’t seen our Gav in a long time so I’d thought I would pop in to see what he and his mates are up to over at UNReal Climate.
There they were all dressed up to the nines, having a party see, well I never. Our littlun Mikey is gettin an award and theree it was on a banner in three feet high letters
“Another well-deserved honor: Oeschger medal awarded to Michael Mann”
Our Gav mon I said, not another typo shurely it should read “un-deserved” and whats all this nonsense that his work has not been seriously challenged?
Will you littleuns never learn?
From recent personal experience I can also confirm that fighting a nasty flu appears to be much harder now I’m over 60 than it is when I had the last flu 10 years ago.
All I can say: “ILLIGITIMI NON CARBONRADUM”….
Locking the stable door after the horse has bolted, and perhaps not my place to suggest it anyway, but I recommend getting a shot of flu vaccine each October. I certainly appreciate my flu-free winters.
Fantastic news to hear you WON! I’m sure in the near future the enormity of your joint achievement will sit very nicely, and the pain and hurt post matches will be but a dim memory. Celebrate it!
Regarding the current state of your intentions, my 2 cents, for the little it is worth, is to suggest a focus on just the science, and leave the personalities and politics to those who have no life. You are at your best when drilling into papers that matter, deconstructing, explaining, researching and adding (yes Mann, ADDING!) to that body of knowledge known as science.
You may not win awards, medals or prizes for this work.
You do have, however, my respect, admiration and support.
Do not let those b*****ds steal another minute of your time. They don’t deserve a second of it. They will only win if good men walk away from the battle.
Steve,
I can hardly find the words to express my admiration for you and your work over the past years. I’m very glad to hear you’re feeling better.
.
Science, and the integrity of science, has always been important to me. I often feel anger and depression when I see the depths these people have descended to. And yet they seem to get away with it, presumably because most people assume that all scientists are basically honest. But there is cause for hope. Eventually science will correct itself as it always has in the past. But it will be a very slow process. In fact, as a pensioner, I’m not totally convinced I will see it in my lifetime. But that’s no reason to give up the fight.
.
Thank you. The world owes you a great debt.
And, yes, I agree with some other posters: please write a book!
Chris
These are crazy times we live in. To most of us Steve is an icon, but very few people know who he is. I have not met a single person, until I inform them. Only a few of us actually witnessed the events of the past few years. I don’t have know the number but It’s probably only in the thousands. To watch a few people effect history and world policy is an amazing experience. And those people are almost unknown to the general public. It’s a shame, and it makes me wonder what other stories like this are happening that I am completely oblivious to. But most people know that the tenor of the debate has changed and they know the alarmists meme has been damaged. How and why this change came about, the vast majority is unaware. It’s been said before but it really should be made into a movie. The final chapter certainly has not been written. Every time I think the story is stagnating a new twist turns everything, another miracle happens.
In 2008 I was quite comfortable with my belief that dangerous anthropogenic global warming was mankind’s biggest threat and that it must be backed by an overwhelming body of scientific evidence for an auspicious body like the IPCC to endorse it. I knew there were “deniers” around, but I knew they were in the same class as flat-earthers or creationists, I wanted to be able to put them in their place with some solid facts so I started reading.
When I found Climate Audit and saw how easily Steve had demolished the hockey stick and how inadequate the team’s response was I completely reassessed my ideas. I haven’t missed a post since then.
I don’t spend too much time here, I seem to be most useful hanging out at WUWT, but did have a chance at the ICCC in Chicago to thank Steve for all his work.
I think the hard part has been done – we, and especially Steve, have kept CAGW people and (let’s call it) Catastrophic Policy Change at bay. Well, not quite in Australia, but that’s a temporary state of affairs. Mann’s book needs little more than mop up action.
Steve, as for “… doubt that I’ll ever post as much as I have in the past,” I hope will be the case, but I suspect if the community needs your talents again you won’t be able to resist.
I was lucky enough to shake your hand and get your signature in my copy of The Hockey Stick Illusion. You are a hero sir and we need heroes right now. Please look after yourself and return to us when you are well again.
Good Luck
Colin
Mr. Mcintyre, I rarely comment on your site as most of the science is way above my pay grade (economist by education, network engineer by career). However, I have to ask you not to give into the lies and distortions. If you do, they have won, and the world is a poorer place for it.
Steve – I hate you! How can you be so good at squash as well as everything else you do! Not fair.
Seriously though, take it easy and re-charge the batteries. As we get older, the mind forgets that we need longer to recover than we used to – and that includes brain exercise as well as muscle exercise. I wish I had the levels of concentration that I had 15 or even 10 years ago (and I feel like I wasted on things which don’t seem as important now). As a consultant myself I am often caught out under-estimating the time needed to complete projects these days I hope you are getting the billable hours in that you deserve!
All the best,
Rob
Steve
You need to get on glutamine and a cortisol inhibitor. Stress pounds the immune system and one of the reasons I still compete in drug free bb is because one has to stay healthy to compete, so I am somewhat of a health nut. Let me know if you are in Chicago for the conference and I will show you exactly what you need. At 56 and a father of 2 I have dad 10 days of down time in the past 16yrs ( since Garrett was born) and I think targeting stress and the immune system with support that can keep them healthy is the way to go
We cant afford one of our generals going down
JB
Steve, thank you for everything you have done to educate and spread awareness of actual climate science as well as interesting statistical techniques!
I have read Mann’s book twice now. I had to really force myself, but did it because I thought it is good to know more about his thought patterns and it is good to know the substance of his fundamental worldview.
The two seemingly contradictory impressions of mine are:
1. He is adopting a kind of scorched earth strategy; sort of an approach where, if he goes down (intellectually), he will take everyone with him including both skeptical critics and his previous allies. He projects the image that he will never accept being a martyr.
2. He is myth building on a grand scale. He is creating the kind of mythology that is a theatrical production; one which dramatically shows himself as the main heroic player leading his worthy fellow IPCC supporters against the critics of both himself and of the IPCC. In the process he depicts critics as lesser/inferior beings both morally and intellectually. His myth building skills could use some additional professional PR help.
John
I don’t think I could stomach it.
Sounds like a call for Mythbusters!
I have been hugely impressed by your work ever since I started reading here. Moreover, I was mighty impressed by what I assumed was your chosen public position of assuming, for the purpose of discussion, that that your opponents were merely wrong, not malevolent. Now, however, you say “The unveiling of the hate in the Climategate emails and the dissembling “investigations” have changed things.” In other words, you genuinely hadn’t realised what malevolent people they were. I guess that does your character credit. Perhaps it does mine little credit but I had deduced that they were nasty pieces of work long ago. Maybe it comes from spending much of my career in universities, eh?
Anyway, all best wishes. And a hundred thousand thanks.
Steve wrote:
What those emails, the behavior since their release, and the faux investigations show is that this was never about the science. It was always about something much larger. You made the mistake of believing it was about science. Silly you.
Which is why I’ve suggested you stick to what you do best and ignore Mann’s book and other provocations. Another poster suggested it’s time to write your book, which would obviously outshine all the rest that have been written in the genre, and maybe you should. But I would recommend you do what you do best, which is to wait for the papers to come out with their predictable results and audit them. Eventually the truth will out. Getting down in the mud with the likes of Mann doesn’t further the science, which is what is truly needed at this stage of the extended debate.
Rome wasn’t built in a day, but it was destroyed rather quickly. The edifice of scientific empire people like Mann and Jones have built has shoddy foundations. It will crumble in due time.
Welcome back, Steve.
Don’t let the nonsense get to you Steve. As Gary (above in this thread) mentions many scientists have ‘found out’ about climatology (and its lack of science) through your work.
On the comments about books – one suggestion would be to collaborate with Andrew Montford. (This might appeal to both skill sets). The result would be assured of a large audience.
People! There MUST be a gong, medal, prize, trophy or other honour that we can agitate some august body of science to offer Steve (keep this between us – don’t tell Steve). It’s not enough he collects the silverware at squash (something I gave up after 20 years, so gawd knows how he does it!).
Personally, as SM is a Canadian, he is, I’m sure, entitled to receive honours from the UK: OBE, anyone? Whatever…And I shall make enquiries with my MP about such an honour.
Well, knowing some of those upon whom the title of Officer or Member of the Order of Canada, I suggest that adding his name to the list would do two things: Raise the image of respectability of those while eroding his image. A hard call.
OT but I, and I suspect many others, would be very interested in your take and that of CA’s denizens on the statistics and modeling in Svensmark’s and Calder’s potential magnum opus at http://www.ras.org.uk/news-and-press/219-news-2012/2117-did-exploding-stars-help-life-on-earth-to-thrive
h/t to WUWT
Somebody suggested “Mann Up” — I’d rather nt hss his name, but if you must, I would prefer “Mann Down”.
How many dead ancient trees are represented by those wheels he is so proud of?
How old were they when he killed them?
one the subject of titles…(Mann Down! nice)
A few that pop into my head….
Mann Over Board
“Blinded by the Light” nom de plume Mann ‘Fried’ Mann…
oh thats not bad, lol
I’m thinking more like, ” Mann (Way) Overboard”
Or to keep the Canadian angle, “Two Minutes for High Sticking”
Altho what Steve’s been fighting has been, two decades OF high sticking . . .
Or more accurately; Blowing the whistle on two decades of high sticking . .
Then Steve deserves Five for Fighting! A High five from everyone and 5 min break as needed.
How about calling his offense “sly sticking”?
The link to Svensmark nad Calder is ftp://ftp2.space.dtu.dk/pub/Svensmark/MNRAS_Svensmark2012.pdf
The link that I posted above was the RS’s press release.
Take care of yourself, build your general strength, don’t sacrifice yourself to activism.
I was remembering Dixie Lee Ray recently. I met the former governmor of WA state at a book signing, IIRC her book was “Trashing the Planet”, which counters environmentalist doomsayers.
We and her co-author were chatting about the subject for several minutes as there were no other people there. Despite still feeling the effects of cold/flu/pneumonia she was focused on facts.
Alas, she died some time later, of pneumonia or such. Some media dutifully reported her reputation for insistence on the facts but sounded like the did not understand it. (Neither did the Democratic party of WA apparently, she was a one-term governor. Of course being a former nuclear scientist and an independent cuss (who avoided the governmor’s mansion and kept driving her aging sports car) probably didn’t suit the “suits” of the party.
Hi Steve,
I’d like to make a suggestion that you bring up to date your “Bring the proxies up to date” post. It would be useful to know if work has been done here and whether or not the proxies match the recent temperature changes. If the proxies still largely stop around 1980 then this should also be highlighted.
On another note, I can understand (I think) the way you feel about continuing in this field. At an early stage in my academic career I stood up and pointed out publicly that the emperor was naked. I expected a lot of criticism (I wasn’t terribly naive) but I certainly didn’t expect that my opponents would refuse to engage with the substance of the argument and instead rely on dubious appeals to authority and ad hominem attacks. After a few years it became impossible for my opponents to continue to maintain that black was white and the arguments that I and others put forward are now generally accepted. However, that episode illustrated to me (a) the power of vested interests (b) that its better to “wrong in the right company” than “right in the wrong company” and (c) most people don’t want to think for themselves; they seek a narrative given to them by others especially if it matches their own prejudices. On one hand I wish I hadn’t had the tiring and bruising experience of making a stand. On the other hand I’m proud to have done what I did (and would have been even if events had gone the other way and proved me wrong). I recognise a lot of my own past in today’s climate “debate” and think I can emphasise with some of what you’re feeling.
Thanks again for all your efforts here. They are appreciated.
Steve
Congrats on squash victory(at best I was a minor B level) and to your tenacity in revealing the numbers that matter. With the great schools in southern Ontario (Western, UofT and Waterloo)I wish that there was a prodigy or two that you could nurture a bit to carry on your great work. Never having met you but reading your words for so long I would think that you would make a tremendous mentor. If not, enjoy and as my friend says ” Live, love and laugh”
In Feynman’s book “Surely You’re Joking” he talks about being burned out at the end of the war. Could not formulate a thought. Afer some time, he was playing around spinning plates on the end of his finger and it gave him ideas about atoms. Back in the game. My suggestion is take off as long as you need, then play with whatever ideas seem fun. Anything quantitative you do will interest many readers here–it isn’t just hockey sticks. For example, Chladni patterns seem pretty cool.
Congratulations on your win. Sorry to hear that it came at such a cost, and I hope you are back to your best soon.
As someone who has suffered “burn-out” after years of intense activity, I feel your pain, and it’s important to look after your own health first and foremost. But if you find it essential to scale back, we will miss your skills, your hard work and, most of all the shining integrity which has been the hallmark of your activities in this long battle against the Dark Empire.
It is fantastic to be mentioned with that crowd but I am in a similar situation. Besides numerous family issues, our company was recognized recently as the 24th fastest growing private manufacturing company in the US. We have outgrown our facility and are working day and night to manage our new products and orders. It is wonderful seeing your endless planning work out, but blogging is almost completely impossible. We have just come off a tremendous trade show and expect to double again in the next 16 months. Life takes precedence over blogging.
Folks, my advice is, don’t wait for that tiny fossil fuel check. Nobody, even those at the government trough, “gives” anyone anything for nothing. Government gives to easily these days IMO.
Quid pro quo pro quid….
Kind of makes you think. Steve wears himself down to the point of sickness but finally obtains a prestigious medal. Mikey jets around the world self promoting and his pals award him a medal. Sounds like climate science in general.
Great on the squash.
I forgot that you were involved in mining and am curious. I facet gems and in the last 3 months have collected at Amos Cunningham’s Amethyst and Beryl/Emerald (Fe variety) mine, Due West, SC, Diamond Hill Mine (amethyst, quartz, and beryl), Antreville, NC, North American Emerald Mine, Hiddenite, NC, Buffalo Vein Emerald Mine, Hiddenite, NC, Jackson Crossroads Amethyst Mine, Rayle, GA, and Chunky Gal Corundum Mine, NC. So, what have you been exploring for lately? I assume it is metals or rare earths as most of the ventures I hang out at are risky business (you never see an American gem mine owner driving a Ferrari 🙂 ).
George Ellis
How wonderful that
Our Dear Leaker changed the world.
Who is it changed him?
=============
Thanks for checking in, Steve. You know how I and your (millions) of mothers worry when we don’t hear from you.
Congratulations on winning the tournament.
Thank youfor your exhaustive and honestinvestigations that brought to light the HS controversy. Wishing you the best of health to achieve whatever you may wish to do in future.
Steve McIntyre commented (Apr 23, 2012 at 9:55 PM):
It used to be fun for me. The unveiling of the hate in the Climategate emails and the dissembling “investigations” have changed things.
I’m not a young man, by any means. When I was (back in the Triassic), I rejoiced in political wranglings. As the ages slipped by, my energy waned. Today, I mostly let others fight the good fight, because I don’t have the staying power. Relentless pressure will wear down all but the most rugged, and I’m just a broken-down old guy.
I also understand the disgust that wells up when you realize you’re surrounded by moral Lilliputians whose cache of ammunition consists solely of innuendos, lies, and smears. Being slimed on a daily basis loses its appeal after a while.
While all of the foregoing is true, I can also assure you that many in the AGW crowd are celebrating, just as they celebrated the death of John L. Daly, about whose death Phil Jones wrote to Mike Mann (1075403821.txt), “In an odd way this is cheering news!” There are celebrations occurring in hokey team offices around the world because by sickening Steve McIntyre, they’ve silenced a dangerous enemy.
The hokey team and its supporters have a totalitarian bent and a large echo chamber (government agencies, academia, and the old media, for starters) that will amplify and disseminate each of its untruths. As with all good totalitarians (Lenin, Hitler, Stalin, Mao, Castro, Pinochet, etc., through today’s totalitarian superstar, Hugo Chavez), smears are an important part of the process of further increasing control over the unwashed masses.
I hope, Steve, that you’ll think long and hard about how your priceless expertise can be put to good use. If you need to retire from the limelight in order to lessen the impact of the slime machine, surely you can provide good information and analyses to others who can blog on those subjects. Perhaps you’d be interested in writing an ‘R’ for Climate Dummies book to help others learn how to perform the kinds of analyses you have done so often. Of course, you could write a memoir — and if that idea sounds like an immense amount of work, find a co-author who will interview you deeply and then go write the book. There are undoubtedly many ways you can do what you’ve found to be fun (or new fun things) without being constantly bathed in the contents of the Climate Science Cesspool.
After a decade and more, the tide has turned. The AGW crowd is on the run, and in some places, on the ropes. Let’s not give up before victory is assured.
Dear Steve –
Congrats to that amazing win!
Commiserations for the following burn out.
As an oldie myself, may I respectfully suggest that you only blog when something climatic looks like fun to which to give your world-famous ‘treatment’?
I think we all here – great posters and lurkers like me – prefer to have one of your wise posts occasionally than having none at all.
Best wishes for a profound recovery!
The prolonged silence seriously worried me until I rationalised it by deciding that Steve had really started into the book that we are all eagerly anticipating. So, I’m very sorry to learn that you’ve been suffering health-wise, and I hope that this phase is now behind you. I echo the many comments made here regarding your work and your enormous value to the whole community. Please take care, and do think about that book.
Best! Robin
This is probably nothing . . . but I notice the most recent post @RealClimate announcing: “Another well-deserved honor: Oeschger medal awarded to Michael Mann” was up about the time of Steve’s ‘Check’n In’ was posted.
Since then there’s been 62 congrat’s (and tongue baths) for Mikey from the faithful. Meanwhile there’s been 112 congrats for Steve’s squash triumphs (and tribulations) from people who were simply happy to hear he’s alive and well. Me among them.
Like I said, it could be nothing . . .
Steve,
As a fellow squash and racketball play may I congratulate you and Brian on your superb achievement.
http://www.ussquash.com/ssm/pages/tournaments/draw.asp?event_id=2589&event_id2=130
No doubt it was all the more satisfying because of you prior illness and is IMO testimony to your tenacity and determination. Thse are only two of the traits which the climate alarmist (particularly Michael Mann) have completely underestimated inyou and so have ultimately paid the price for doing so. You nail biting ‘nevr give up’ final against Boynton and Griffin bares testimony to fact that you’ll never give up so please please don’t ever give up on your climate pseudo-science exposing activities.
KevinUK
Thank you for all your work, and best of luck with what lies ahead.
I remember my first visit to CA in ’09, quite skeptical that an untrained and unaffiliated voice would have anything useful to say the matter. And so it is had been an eyeopening two years for me, to say the least.
Interesting path from the statistical auditing, into a review of the literature and the disheartening descent into politics. If nothing else, it taught me the importance of looking past the official summary to the methodology in all parts of life.
Dear Mr. McIntyre,
I am also one discreet reader of many years that got a slightly better comprehension of things thanks to your efforts, which actually made me change my minds on some things I used to believe without questioning.
For this, thank you.
I would regret if you would stop or reduce the blog, so let me make one comment: over time, there has been less technical posts and more “legal” posts (details of what happened with Climategate, defense against obvisouly wrong articles/books, and so on). I think this part is not that attractive as it is now clear that nobody will admit his mistakes on the other side and that score will not be settled but remain matter of opinion. The technical part, however, remain exceptionally interesting and intellectually challenging. Perhaps if you would try to forget (hard to do, easy to say) the ad hominem and focus again on analysing data, you would get interested and motivated again.
My 2 cents only. Thanks already for the generous and most interesting topics you shared with us. Your place is already safe in the history of science and its interface with society.
Laurent
You’ve been a huge voice in this debate, and your intellect, your hard work, your integrity and your courage have earned you a place in scientific history, IMO.
I join with those who’d miss your voice if you decide that blogging no longer satifies your soul. But life is for living, and it’s too short to spend time doing things that no longer suit your desires and goals. As a suggestion, maybe you could cut say back and then due to scarcity, find occasional joy in doing this on a less frequent basis? Whatever you decide, you owe us nothing.
Congrats on the squash tournament results, btw.
Steve: thanks for all that you do. Congrats on the squash win. Sorry for the ensuing pain and difficulties. Take it easy and please keep on bloggin’ as time and interest allow. You’re a gift.
I’ve been hinting around for a year that you should be working on a succession plan. On the one hand you shouldn’t be expected to carry the torch indefinitely, and your contributions certainly merit an early exit at a time of your own choosing. On the other hand, what you have on this website–the work you have published here–should not be retired along with you.
I certainly think you should become chairman of a board at CA, and contribute when it’s fun to do so. But I think you should nominate a few people to do the busy work, daily posting, monitoring of events, etc. Look around, Steve. That’s the model that has been adopted throughout the blogosphere. From Real Climate to WUWT, a blog of this scope becomes a team effort. Michael Tobis at P3. Joe Romm at Climate Progress.
I doubt if you would lack volunteers…
I don’t agree. I think Climate Audit and Steve McIntyre are inseparable. The site has always been primarily focused on studying “technical” issues, and I don’t believe that would last if it was opened up to regular posting by many different authors. More likely, I think the site’s focus would change, and that would degrade it’s overall contribution. Of course, I could be wrong.
Now then, what I do think would be good is if the work of Climate Audit were to be collected into an organized resource. There are so many different things covered by this site, it’s almost impossible for anyone to find and learn all the individual points. I think it would be a wonderful idea for Steve McIntyre and/or others to create a new resource using a different format.
The simplest idea, of course, would be to create something like a wiki. Selected individuals would be granted permission to modify it, and they would try to convert the work of this site into that format. Furthermore, I think Steve McIntyre would be especially helpful in such an effort since he has plenty of data and knowledge of things which can’t be found on this site.
For example, he would presumably be able to give insight into many data series and proxies. If they were collected and posted to the site, articles with information about them could also be generated, and he would be a helpful contributor. So forth and so on.
I’ve always thought it would be good if things were more accessible for people. Imagine if you were someone who had never looked into the hockey stick controversy, and you wanted to start researching now. Think about how difficult it would be to catch up on all the various issues. Now think about how much easier it could be if a resource dedicated to such existed.
“The simplest idea, of course, would be to create something like a wiki”
lex parsimoniae
That’s not really applicable Andrew Newberg. That applies when you’re discussing two equitable solutions. A wiki format may be simplest, but that doesn’t mean it is better. Other approaches may have benefits a wiki wouldn’t, and thus they could wind up being better choices. Of course, anything would be better than nothing, so going with the simplest solution would make sense as a matter of practicality.
By the way, I find it incredible no resource like what I described exists for global warming as a whole. If I believed catastrophic global warming would happen unless major efforts were made to prevent it, I’d want to have a resource which would show people why they should believe what I believe. I’d want there to be a collected body of work which explained to people as much as we could about the issue.
It isn’t hard to do things like that. It just takes resources and effort. I know I’d love to help do what I described with Climate Audit’s work, but I don’t have the resources for that sort of web hosting or design.
Dear Steve,
as many others around the world, I’m most thankful for your fantastic esteemed and awsome efforts in bringing the truth out to lay-people as myself. Good, really good, to see you back again & congrats to your squah wins (am still reigning Swedish champ in squah in Hamburg – though due to tha fact, that our ‘tournament’ seized to be played same year I won… 😉 ).
Talking about ‘prizes’ I’d like to remind about a Swedish prize awarded to one other, maybe even more xyz-type of person prof. Schellenhuber, by Volvo in 2011:
http://www.volvocars.com/intl/top/about/news-events/pages/default.aspx?itemid=313
A very good & sound reason NOT to buy a Volvo!
Brdgs from Sweden
ThomasJ
Let me join in on the chorus of grateful readers anxious to thank you for your work in the past.
You owe us nothing, but it would be great to have your views in the future from time to time.
One thing gives me great comfort – you must be financially secure, what with all that “big oil” cash that’s poured in over the last few years!
Mr. McIntyre.
Sir,
If you did stop blogging and cease investigating tomorrow, then the whole world [barring 97% of 77 advocates] would say; “Steve MacIntyre opened the pandoran box on the ‘great MM climate swindle’ and we as fellow citizens from all over the world – in all conscience can ask no more of a dedicated man – for he has done far more than just his ‘shift'”.
Well done in the Squash championship, get better and do what you feel you must and more importantly what is right for you.
All that remains to be said, is to convey my grateful thanks for all of your work, from a supporter, admirer and fellow realist.
Athelstan.
Steve: Congratulations on the tournament win, but very sorry to hear you have been unwell. I hope that when you are fully back to strength you may be able to find some happy medium that allows Climate Audit to thrive without it making excessive demands on your time and energy.
I understand your reaction to the behaviour and attitudes revealed in the Climategate emails and shown directly by Michael Mann, etc. However, IMO there are a good number of climate scientists who behave reasonably and may well, ultimately, change their views on key aspects of climate science if persuasive arguements are made, and evidence presented, that alarmist studies are scientifically and/or mathematically flawed. That is something you are exceptionally good at doing, and I hope that you will not entirely cease efforts in that direction – although I can well imagine that you need a break at this point.
All the best, whatever you decide to do. We all owe you an enormous debt for what you have, by dint of your very substantial efforts, achieved.
Dear Steve,
I have been here for years and have never posted. It is time.
If you can get up in the morning, look yourself in the mirror,
and say “I Have Done My Best”, than He will be pleased. What else
really matters?
Perhaps I should apologize for not reading Steve’s blog every day. Some weeks I get too busy doing other stuff.
Relax, Steve. Go for a long stroll in the sunshine. It’ll accelerate recovery and clear up the “fog” which decends when one is unwell.
It’s easy to become distracted by the low-hanging-fruit in the climate debate. There are few people however with the experience, skills and persistence to gnaw away at the roots and the trunk of the catastrophists’ argument. Remember what JFK said:
My best wishes for a prompt recovery of both health and energy. I second the motion to write a book. A lot of it is already written and documented on this site, but, putting it together into, for example, a collection of essays, would allow it to reach a much wider audience and help preserve the knowledge herein for posterity. Most importantly, such a book would help to serve as an example of the pursuit of rigor and real science, in great contrast to those who truly do not deserve to be mentioned. I have no doubt that the dedicated and astute readers of CA would help to bring it to fruition.
Sir, I will echo the thought that your efforts are very much appeciated. You have a lucid and expository writing style that is the envy of all who read your works. Thank you again for what you have done and for whatever future contributions you may choose to offer.
Steve wrote: “Perhaps because I was sick, perhaps because I was tired, but, for whatever reason, one day I woke up and I was sick and tired both of the Team and the broader “climate community” that enables them and in which they thrive.”
Your investigations into the reliability of climate reconstructions and climate science have led your into the swamp of politicized science, politics in general, and investigation/law. What began as a search for the TRUTH has lead you into areas where arenas where only objective is winning, not integrity. From my perspective, lots of people can expose the politicization of climate science, but few can expose significant flaws in “consensus” science. The hockey stick is broken, the putative hot-spot in the upper tropical troposphere doesn’t exist, the bulk of Antarctica isn’t warming …. This reader believes your science far more important that exposure of the pathologies of Mann and his fellow travelers.
Best wishes, whatever you choose to do. ClimateAudit will remain the first place I look, no matter how infrequently you post.
I can only speak for myself, but the real enjoyment and satisfaction for me at CA has always been the analyses of climate science related papers and issues, that were initiated at CA mostly by SteveM, and posting comments on those analyses. Whether those analyses had any effects on the policy debate or any reforming of climate science was a very secondary issue for me. Blogging as carried out at CA and other blogs like it has allowed the layperson like myself to get upfront and personal with climate scientists and their works. SteveM’s reports from behind the scenes at climate science gatherings and his open emails with scientists allowed a look behind the curtain that could both informative and entertaining.
The personality dustups and the niggling about lawyerly issues, that are evidently a feature of even the most serious blogs, are the greatest frustrations for me – and not that they bother me in and of themselves, but that in my view those discussions waste a lot of time I judge would be better applied to more basic and intellectual issues.
“Appreciation is a wonderful thing: It makes what is excellent in others belong to us as well.” (Voltaire)
Thanks Steve, it’s been a great ride.
Marine_Shale
Now is the winter of our dicontent
Made glorious summer by this son of Ontario.
Mr. McIntyre, I am a constant reader and real fan of your work. I can’t image the horrible strain on your mental and physical health you experience daily by being constantly attacked by progressive leftists posing as “acclaimed scientists.” As you well know, the progressives’ entire economic platform rests on their falsified green science and exposing it scares them. But just remember they are chickensh*t bullies at heart. They are afraid of you because if they weren’t you wouldn’t even register on their radar. They viciously attack you to defend AGW because to them death is would likely be a far more preferable option than utter public humiliation and going broke. Painting you as a Don Quixote tilting at the “AGW windmills” is just one of their many dirty underhanded and cowardly tricks. Don’t lose faith now. The cracks are showing and even one small point of light in darkness is still light that draws thinking people to it. We are working here in the US to rid ourselves of the far left progressive president. Once he is out we can start cutting the funding that is helping to fuel many of these attacks. The progs unspoken motto has always been “turning people’s tax dollars into our ideology’…. Keep the faith (in real science) and keep the fight going!
Losers make excuses, winners make changes. You’ve won.
Congratulations. You were missed. Welcome back.
I would like to second the suggestion near the top of this thread that Climate Audit posts be archived for future reference by historians of science. You have made historic and important contributions to the convoluted climate controversy, Steve, and someday your absolutely pivotal contributions will be recognized (and celebrated) in the history of science. Scientific controversies are the ‘bread and butter’ of this discipline, and, whilst most historians of science currently seem to have absorbed the main narrative of climate science (a position I find shocking, as it entails the abandonment of their supposed critical approaches to how science is conducted), some that I know have awakened to the contradictions, corruption and sloppiness that have in recent years been revealed by your work and Climategate. I am hopeful that someday in the not-too-distant future someone more capable than I will undertake a historical analysis of the scientific scandal of alarmist climate science.
Just before Christmas I was felled by a ‘flu which nearly had me praying for immediate death, and left me nearly incapacitated and feeling about 90 years old. The effects lingered for over 2 months, but recovery was complete. I hope the same for you, and that the negative thoughts which accompany this illness similarly evaporate. Whatever choices you make for the future (and I am one of a chorus who hope you keep blogging) thanks for all you have done!
Like others, I have been a long time lurker on this site. I found it because of the descriptions of R code. I am an engineer and need to implement various models in my work and was moving to using R. At the time, I had a tentative belief in AGW. I read your descriptions of algorithm implementations with great interest and also read – with increasing amazement – of your unsuccessful attempts to obtain algorithm details and data from main stream climate scientists. The amazement has turned to disgust, so I understand your fatigue with dealing with them.
I agree with an earlier post that a great book would be “R for Climate Dummies”. It would have the dual purposes of providing an introduction to R in a single application area and also showing how the statistics should be done (along with side discussions of where it has been done poorly)
I would love for you to do this, but as others have said, you owe us nothing. We owe you a lot. Thank you
Joe Brown
Joe Brown reminds me that one of the positive outcomes for me in participating at CA was learning R (not that I am currently an expert but I am the point where I can almost code anything given the need and motivation). SteveM pushed the use of R and the avenue that use provided for documenting calculations and presentations made to CA – and for that I am most grateful.
I had that Flu a month ago, good to know you’re well again.
Here is an interesting item
UK Met office got it wrong and they want more money for better computers.
BBC News
30 April 2012 Last updated at 17:52
April is the wettest month for 100 years
Aerial video shows Somerset floods
Man dies as floods create havoc
Somerset’s rivers on flood alert
Badminton Horse Trials cancelled
This has been the wettest April in the UK in over a century, with some areas seeing three times their usual average, figures from the Met Office show.
Met Office 3-month Outlook
Period: April – June 2012 Issue date: 23.03.12
The forecast presented here is for April and the average of the April-May-June period for the United Kingdom as a whole.
This forecast is based on information from observations, several numerical models and expert judgement.
SUMMARY – PRECIPITATION:
The forecast for average UK rainfall slightly favours drier-than-average conditions for April-May-June as a whole,
and also slightly favours April being the driest of the 3 months.
With this forecast, the water resources situation in southern, eastern and central England is likely to deteriorate further during the April-May-June period. The probability that UK precipitation for April-May-June will fall into the driest of our five categories is 20-25% whilst the probability that it will fall into the wettest of our five categories is 10-15% (the 1971-2000 climatological probability for each of these categories is 20%).
You have made an enormous contribution to maintaining the integrity of science, and are an inspiration to countless people.
Look after yourself, and know that we are all grateful for your work.
I will second Tom’s sentiment and thanks.
Thanks, Steve.
Steve, words are hard to find to express the admiration and appreciation our family have for you, and the work you have done trying to add a bit of integrity to the AGW debate. Thank-you.
Mark McNeil above has supplied a quote from the Christopher Paolini books.(Eragon, Eldest, and Brisinger are the 3 I’ve read) Here’s a quote I like from the books:
“If you have to chose between giving a man a noble disposition or teaching him to think clearly, you’d do better to teach him to think clearly; too many problems in this world are caused by men with noble dispositions and clouded minds”
Steve, as many comments above have indicated, your work is much appreciated on both a personal and professional level. It seems likely that you underestimate the effect it has had, but the ripples have been experienced well beyond this blog. Apart from that, any dodgy climatologist who learns that Steve McIntyre is about to run the ruler over their latest publication is very likely to know (and dread) what that means.
There have recently been discussions on other prominent climate sites about groupthink, integrity and communication. What sets you apart is that you are not interested in ‘spin’, but are very interested in accuracy and honesty.
Finally, as a veteran of the public sector, I repeat what I said a few months ago about getting into tar-baby type wars with the bureaucracy – they have a lot more resources than you, and will suck you dry. There are people with the resources and (dare I say) the temperament to do this stuff, but if you try to do it, it will send you broke and drive you nuts.
I hope that your tendons are tending. – J
Michael Mann, unlike Wegman, Watts, and yourself, actually knows something about climate science, and how our atmosphere functions. I recommend his book or, if people don’t like the attacks on deniers, perhaps they could study his scientific publications, for which he just won a major international science award.
Alternatively, there are a number of other books on the subject that could enlighten CA readers, if you have issues with Mann personally.
Who, over the years, is actually guilty of “ad hominem”?
Oops, you don’t want to ask that question here, Mike; it’s a big mirror.
Mike Roddy, if your post is more than a drive-by, please be specific. And no, a truckload of citations of Mann (aka spam) doesn’t cut it. What exactly is your point? And, is it something that has not been endlessly rehashed elsewhere?
If you have nothing new to say, then I hope that your feeble attempt to derail the discussion is treated accordingly.
Re: Mike Roddy (May 2 08:38),
Put simply, the problem with Mann’s publications, and the occasional awards he receives, is that they are so poorly vetted. Science is not a democracy; popularity has nothing to do with it. One disproof is all it takes to make a particular paper fall apart.
Steve McIntyre has provided more than enough vetting along those lines… whether Mike Roddy and all the rest like it or not.
“perhaps they could study his scientific publications”
This is brilliant, and really deserves a prize. Does Mike Roddy have any idea what this blog has been doing for nearly 10 years?
Mike Roddy, I have no awareness of your knowledge of Mann’s work, but you could begin by giving us a quick synopsis of Mann (2008): the strengths and weaknesses.
As the Green hardcore element love to state, nature bats last. And when she does, the simplistic views foisted upon the gullible by those who put “Deep Ecology” in front of all other goals, will be smashed to bits. It is a highly complex machine. It does not suffer fools. Yes, climate change is inevitable. In both directions. What I write is not based on personal beliefs it is based on 8000 years of recorded human history and countless eons of geological and cosmic history.
McIntyre watchers might be interested to note that Steve recently put in an appearance at Bishop Hill (endorsing a remark by James Delingpole).
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