Checking in and travel plans

As readers have noticed, I’ve been tuned out for a few weeks. No single reason.

I did a considerable amount of fresh work on issues related to Hurricane Sandy, but found them hard to reduce to a few posts. So I’ve got topics in inventory.

I also had a bout of periodic weariness. I just turned 65 and continue to tire more quickly than I used to. Various leg injuries have contributed to a decline in fitness as well. Nor is it easy to continue to muster enthusiasm for analysis of dreck from people like Mann, Lewandowsky, Gleick, Gergis, Briffa, Jones etc. Wading into WG2 is even worse.

I’ve also been busy on some business issues. Trelawney Mining got taken over last June (it was a considerable success; our first property visit was mentioned in a CA post a few years ago) and we’re working on a new venture. One of my sons is involved in small-cap mining as well and I’ve been helping him as well. I find it very hard to focus on more than one thing at once.

Also, my wife and I are going to visit our daughter in New Zealand and our son in Thailand over Christmas. I’m going to be away for about 4 weeks. The flight to New Zealand goes from San Francisco so I’m going to go to AGU this year, starting tomorrow. And will try to blog on anything interesting.

103 Comments

  1. Posted Dec 3, 2012 at 5:35 PM | Permalink

    Nor is it easy to continue to muster enthusiasm for analysis of dreck from people like Mann, Lewandowsky, Gleick, Gergis, Briffa, Jones etc. Wading into WG2 is even worse.

    Oh dear. WG2 can’t be very good.

    It’s great to hear about the new business ventures of the McIntyre family and the Christmas trip. I won’t be alone in wishing you fun and fitness as you make the most of it all.

  2. Posted Dec 3, 2012 at 5:37 PM | Permalink

    Thanks, Steve, for all that you have done to restore sanity to science.

    The open letter published in the Financial Post to the UN Secretary General from one hundred and twenty-nine (129) scientists is a tribute to your pioneering work: http://tinyurl.com/bv8n2tl

    With kind regards,

    -Oliver K. Manuel

    • Ted Swart
      Posted Dec 3, 2012 at 11:13 PM | Permalink

      You will find me as #107 on this list of 130 scientists. Job well done I think.

  3. Posted Dec 3, 2012 at 5:38 PM | Permalink

    Best wishes on your travels
    To Thailand and EnnZed
    It seems that time unravels
    When things weigh on your head.

    But travel well and wise
    Say “hi” to AGU
    If you’ve time to apprise
    We’ll be where when you do.

    ===|==============/ Keith DeHavelle

    • Posted Dec 3, 2012 at 5:40 PM | Permalink

      And as I hit “submit”
      I saw that letter there
      I cannot retrofit
      That line to “here” from “where”

      ===|==============/ Keith DeHavelle

  4. John Francis
    Posted Dec 3, 2012 at 5:44 PM | Permalink

    Steve:

    It was your blog, with its well-reasoned arguments and polite open-minded tone that helped to get me interested in climate change and convinced me that a skeptical attitude was well-warranted. The whole world, and science in particular, owes you a huge vote of thanks for your sterling work. It’s no stretch to say that without you the wider world would not know of the chicanery behind the “Team’s” efforts. Thank you!

    Have a well-earned rest!

  5. dearieme
    Posted Dec 3, 2012 at 6:04 PM | Permalink

    Be sure to enjoy the Xmas cherries in the Shakey Isles.

  6. Ray Donahue
    Posted Dec 3, 2012 at 6:10 PM | Permalink

    Hi Steve! I just turned 70! You have a lot of get up and go!! IMHO.
    As we said in the military long, long ago: Drive On!!

    Ray

  7. MarkR
    Posted Dec 3, 2012 at 6:26 PM | Permalink

    Steve, Merry Christmas and happy holidays to you and yours. You’ve done more than enough. You and a few notable others held the line and then pushed back for reason and true science. I wish I’d known your plans to visit England, I would have liked to shake your hand. Regards. MarkR

  8. Old Ranga from Oz
    Posted Dec 3, 2012 at 6:45 PM | Permalink

    “Analysis of dreck” indeed. Neat term for exactly how I feel on the off days…and at 75 I find they do tend to be increasingly frequent!

    Some day someone will write a book/make a film/do both about the extraordinary group of geriatric resistance fighters, major and minor, who have fought the good fight for the exposure and dismantling of the Great Scam. (Apologies to Anthony Watts, who perhaps should be welcomed as an honorary geriatric in this context.)

    Most rebellions are led by the young and enthusiastic, keen to take on a cause. This one has been different. We’re mostly much older, much less enthusiastic, and none of us need any of it. Nor want it. “How long, oh God, how long?” is probably the best motto for all of us.

    So why do it? Because the Great Scam is wrong. Just plain wrong. And our parents brought us up to do what is right.

    So thanks, Steve, for what you do. Gerries United to the fore. And may you and your family have a very Happy Christmas.

    • Posted Dec 4, 2012 at 9:02 AM | Permalink

      “And our parents brought us up to do what is right.”

      Just so. Indeed, I have an lifelong injunction out against me in the UK with regard to certain matters, because of that very thing. I’m really rather proud of it :-)

  9. TerryMN
    Posted Dec 3, 2012 at 7:05 PM | Permalink

    Thanks for checking in – safe travels and I hope you have a great Christmas

  10. dfhunter
    Posted Dec 3, 2012 at 7:43 PM | Permalink

    focus on the things that matter to you most,the family & take it easy at your time of life :-)

    forget “Mann, Lewandowsky, Gleick, Gergis, Briffa, Jones etc. Wading into WG2″

    not worth your time anyhow, you’ve more than done your fair share (imho)

    i always appreciate you (& all regulars at CA) doing your unpaid due diligence/digging but understand it takes it’s toll on your energy/patience.
    enjoy your holiday.

  11. Chad Jessup
    Posted Dec 3, 2012 at 8:02 PM | Permalink

    Take a well deserved break. You have helped many of us further our understanding of climate issues, and we can wait for more of your posts while you enjoy your children. Have a good trip, Merry Christmas, and Happy New Year!

  12. john robertson
    Posted Dec 3, 2012 at 8:02 PM | Permalink

    Safe travels enjoy the southern summer and have a decent rest from the dreck.

  13. Posted Dec 3, 2012 at 9:04 PM | Permalink

    Hmm. I think the last time you threatened to take a break it lasted about a week and we got a flurry of posts… In all honesty, though, it seems like a good time to take an extended break (watch FOIA dump more emails now that I said that).

    Have fun.

  14. sue
    Posted Dec 3, 2012 at 9:11 PM | Permalink

    Enjoy your holiday!

  15. snarkmania
    Posted Dec 3, 2012 at 9:45 PM | Permalink

    Hi Dr. McIntyre,
    If you are at AGU on Friday, please consider visiting at my poster:
    PP51B. Linking Marine and Terrestrial Records of Past Climate
    Change III Posters
    8:00 AM – 12:20 PM; Hall A-C (Moscone South)

    PP51B-2133. The Devil’s Hole Is In The Details.
    .
    KEYWORDS: [1809] HYDROLOGY / Desertification, [2129] INTERPLANETARY
    PHYSICS / Interplanetary dust, [4928] PALEOCEANOGRAPHY / Global climate models.
    Best,
    Mike Wallace

    • snarkmania
      Posted Dec 10, 2012 at 3:22 PM | Permalink

      An honor to have you stop by the poster, and good timing to meet the other people there at the same time Dr. McIntyre!

      fyi, just in case any AGU members had a concern on the substance of the draft AGU statement on climate change, and perhaps wanted to share your concerns with your colleagues and the public at large.
      MW

      ——– Original Message ——–
      Subject: AGU Climate Change Statement: There is no online Submission Form
      Date: Dec 8 2012 12:25 PM
      From: mwa
      To: (climate change draft AGU management people)

      Hello,

      I attempted to reach the online submission form to comment on the draft updated statement regarding the subject above.
      There is no online submission form available, even though that is clearly described in EOS Volume 93 #48, November 2012.
      The deadline posted for member comment submission is 27 December 2012. A long time has already passed since the EOS announcement and so this is of concern.

      Please make the submission page available at the earliest possible opportunity so that I and other members of AGU may comment accordingly.

      Thanks in advance,

      Michael G. Wallace,
      AGU member

      • snarkmania
        Posted Dec 11, 2012 at 6:25 PM | Permalink

        oops.. comments are best submitted via email to AGU. I was confused by the EOS statement, but it seems clear enough now.
        I do recommend again that any AGU member read the draft statement and consider submitting a comment. The draft reads somewhat like the APS statement a few years ago, as if nothing has emerged to suggest a shred of doubt about CAGW.

  16. Skiphil
    Posted Dec 3, 2012 at 10:05 PM | Permalink

    Steve, good luck with all of your travel plans. I hope you are able to enjoy enough rest and relaxation, and a great holiday season. Don’t let the bast….. er…. Manniacs….. get you down!

  17. Posted Dec 3, 2012 at 10:15 PM | Permalink

    I wish you safe travels. Spent a wonderful few weeks on the South Island back in the 80s. Driving a car on the left side of the road was surprisingly easy to adapt to.

  18. Posted Dec 3, 2012 at 10:30 PM | Permalink

    Steve, I’m just experimenting with a blog, I’ve posted a picture pertaining to your “dreck from Mann” comment. Hope the WP “shortlink” below works.

    http://wp.me/P1INsy-8

  19. Ted Swart
    Posted Dec 3, 2012 at 11:19 PM | Permalink

    Have a good Christmas break Steve. Some time when you have the energy many of us would love to see a compare and contrast critique of the latest Briffa et all paper (complete with the MWP) as opposed to the original Mann Hockey stick.

    . . Ted . .

    • Old Ranga from Oz
      Posted Dec 3, 2012 at 11:59 PM | Permalink

      Give the poor man a break, Ted! He needs a good bit of fiction to read, not flipping climate junk stuff. Sorry, “dreck”.

      Jane Austen would be ideal. Charles Dickens ditto. Excellent dreck-blockers, both of them.
      A joy to re-read as well.

  20. Gerald Machnee
    Posted Dec 3, 2012 at 11:34 PM | Permalink

    Have a good trip and holiday Steve and family. Hope to follow your trek down under in the near future. Hope the Summer is “summer” down there!

  21. Paul
    Posted Dec 4, 2012 at 2:24 AM | Permalink

    I hope you enjoy coming to New Zealand. I moved here 14 years ago and would never consider living anywhere else.
    My wife and I are in Taranaki just under Mount Taranaki/Egmont with a picture postcard view of the mountain/volcano from our lounge window. It is a stunningly beautiful country, enjoy.

    • nzrobin
      Posted Dec 5, 2012 at 3:56 AM | Permalink

      Steve,
      I hope you and your wife thoroughly enjoy NZ. Like Paul, I live in Taranaki too enjoying the views of the mountain and sea. I think you deserve huge accolades for the work you’ve done in exposing the shonky maths and science from the Team. Very proud to have you over here, and its nice to know you have a family connection with our country.
      Welcome to NZ
      Robin

  22. Michael in Sydney
    Posted Dec 4, 2012 at 2:28 AM | Permalink

    Hi Steve

    Have you thought about mentoring someone younger with good stats knowledge (or gaining it) to begin to take over?

    Thanks for your efforts.

    Michael

  23. Mongoose
    Posted Dec 4, 2012 at 2:49 AM | Permalink

    Steve, You are a hero. Avoid Dr.Tim Ball or you may get involved in his court case!

  24. Sigmund
    Posted Dec 4, 2012 at 3:22 AM | Permalink

    I wish you a very pleasant trip, your destinations and timing sounds like a good bet for that.

    Miss your articles but certainly appreciate your must have some of your spare time for yourself. I can see your work in this field must have some “why do I have to do this”-moments when the flow of sloppy, mistake-ridden, pre-concluded output is overwhelming or when the personal attacks are ugly. Please remember a lot of us are grateful for what you have done and hope to hear more from you in the future even if you have to scale back and prioritize your topics harder.

    Happy Holidays !

  25. Mindert Eiting
    Posted Dec 4, 2012 at 3:28 AM | Permalink

    Steve, good to hear you are OK. When you began to discuss Lewandowsky, I thought for my self that you better should stop with this. The level was too low to waist your precious time with. Old Ranga from OZ said it well. I remember that in the seventies we were optimistic while working on promising scientific (statistical) methods. We never foresaw that science would derail in this way. Perhaps no book will be written about geriatric resistance fighters but books about the scientific method will include the vulnerability of science as discovered by you and others. In this sense I am still optimistic. Have a nice time.

  26. Martin A
    Posted Dec 4, 2012 at 3:55 AM | Permalink

    So you are quite young, then.

  27. Nicholas
    Posted Dec 4, 2012 at 4:10 AM | Permalink

    If you will be going near Sydney, drop me a note and we can grab some beers. I’m buying!

    Have a great trip. I look forward to your next audit, when you have the time and inspiration.

  28. Posted Dec 4, 2012 at 5:18 AM | Permalink

    Considering that it was your knowledge of mining issues that first got you interested in the hockey stick, it’s fitting that you return to that area of endeavor. Good luck with all those ventures.

  29. Coldish
    Posted Dec 4, 2012 at 6:05 AM | Permalink

    From me too, here’s wishing you a great holiday and hoping to see you back on form again in the new year. Like another commenter above, I have on occasion started to wonder whether your skills were being made best use of by focussing at such length on the ‘drivel’ (your delightful term) put out by Mann, Briffa, Lewandowsky and co. I’d certainly like to see someone of your stature investigating other branches of the sick science – perhaps the stats and maths used – or abused – in attempts to reconcile the exalted role of CO2 as a climate change driver with the Vostok ice-core record.
    In any case, thank you for providing this haven of sanity and scientific common sense.

  30. Inversesquare
    Posted Dec 4, 2012 at 8:11 AM | Permalink

    Have a great time in my Country over the Christmas period! (proud kiwi here). I have much respect for you kind sir and wish you a relaxing and eventful holiday season.

  31. Jean S
    Posted Dec 4, 2012 at 8:21 AM | Permalink

    Steve, thanks for checking in. I just realized that you have been doing this for about 10 years now! So you really, really need a good break. Before you do, are you going to attend the session advertised by Mann:

    Jan Esper says:
    30 Nov 2012 at 5:36 AM

    Sure, anything is possible. But it doesn’t necessarily have to be published in Nature.

    [Response: As we should all be aware, what gets into Nature or Science (or Nature Geoscience) is a bit of mystery - and we could all list many papers that didn't 'have' to be published there. I doubt however they would be the same! More to the point, everyone can submit stuff to these journals and kudos to them if it gets accepted. - gavin]

    I recommend going out into the forest, develop a tree-ring chronology, and learn crossdating. There are hundreds of dendrochronologists that did this work in the past and could show you the basic techniques.

    You could then check your ideas with real-world data and try to demonstrate that post-volcanic rings are missing, before concluding “the potential biases identified in our study necessarily impact all existing hemispheric-scale estimates” and “bolster the case for a significant influence of explosive volcanism on climate in past centuries”.

    [Response: I don't have any dog in this particular issue and I wrote this to point out this this is part of a bigger discussion. It seems to me that the process of checking these hypotheses is well underway. I will be happy to see further discussion on the various issues. - gavin]

    [Response: With regard to checking with real world data, you might want to watch my AGU New Fellows talk next week [Abstract Title: The Past as Prologue: Learning from the Climate Changes in Past Centuries (Invited) Final Paper Number: A32D-02, Presentation Type: Oral Presentation, Presentation Date and Time: December 5, 2012; 10:30 AM to 10:50 AM, Presentation Length: 20 minutes, Session Title: A32D. New Atmospheric Sciences Fellows Presentations II (Video On-Demand), Location: 3002 (Moscone West)] which will be livestreamed. I’ll be showcasing some very interesting new results based on “real world data” and, yes, Houston–we do very much appear to have a problem. I will also be addressing the recent claim by Esper et al that multiproxy reconstructions are underestimating a long-term cooling trend. This claim will be demonstrated to have been falsified :) – mike]

    If so, I think they should start selling tickets to the event! Merely your presence in the audience as Mann is presenting his “groundbreaking” new results is history in making.

  32. Posted Dec 4, 2012 at 9:00 AM | Permalink

    Good stuff, Steve, take it easy. My wife is a Kiwi and I would love to go and spend some time there. I think I can speak on behalf of most everyone who posts here that we are eternally grateful for your perseverance and hard work.

    AGU? 25 years in IT made me think that It was the most acronym-infested work. Three years of climate scepticism and reading blogs made me realise that that is deffo NOT the case.

    American Geo??????? Union I’m guessing? Anyone know of a good Climate Science Acronym Glossary out there?

  33. Posted Dec 4, 2012 at 9:03 AM | Permalink

    Climate Manntalists…

  34. Dr K.A. Rodgers
    Posted Dec 4, 2012 at 10:52 AM | Permalink

    Welcome to New Zealand. If you are passing through Auckland I hope you are in time to see the Pohutakawas blooming. They are a fabuolous sight at Christmas.

  35. PhilH
    Posted Dec 4, 2012 at 11:08 AM | Permalink

    You’re just sixty-five! Hell, I’m seventy-six. You are still a kid. If you are looking for something to read on your long flights, look for anything by the Australian mystery writer, Peter Temple. He is terrific. “The Broken Shore” is one of his best.

    Have a great holliday and a Merry Christmas.

    Phil

  36. Alexander K
    Posted Dec 4, 2012 at 3:45 PM | Permalink

    Steve
    Welcome (in advance) to Aotearoa – New Zealand.
    Your contribution to science is huge and, like countless others, I will always be very thankful for your application of expertise to this field.
    Enjoy your holiday but don’t give up on keeping yourself fit. As one who is considerably older than you, I can vouch for the old truism – ‘If you don’t use it you’ll lose it!’
    Alexander

  37. Duster
    Posted Dec 4, 2012 at 6:23 PM | Permalink

    Speaking as the husband of an RN, “bouts of periodic weariness” is not something to wave off. Take care of that, please. Also on your long flight do get up and move around as much as possible.

    • TG
      Posted Dec 7, 2012 at 10:21 AM | Permalink

      Also, please take a baby aspirin pill every 6 hours and drink so much water (sorry, no champagne…) that you’ll _have to_ get up every couple of hours and stretch! DVT and PE happen quite often during or after such long flights, especially to us very ‘young’ who are more susceptible to such trouble.

      • Jeff Alberts
        Posted Dec 7, 2012 at 10:04 PM | Permalink

        My advice, never take medical advice from people on the internet.

  38. Green Sand
    Posted Dec 4, 2012 at 7:10 PM | Permalink

    Bon voyage. Mr. McIntyre, enjoy your life and your family in the knowledge that you are a gentleman! A description that does not fit many in the “arena” that you grace.

    If you do actually have to get up on your hind legs in the next few weeks, then break a leg! Be a star, and enjoy, you are needed next year!

    Merry Christmas, Happy New Year to you and yours

    Regards

    GS

  39. Geoff Sherrington
    Posted Dec 4, 2012 at 9:33 PM | Permalink

    Steve,
    You’ll love New Zealand if the weather is good. Here’s a shot I took near Queenstown. It is sent so you can anticipate some relaxation amid the beauty.

  40. Jimmy Haigh
    Posted Dec 4, 2012 at 9:39 PM | Permalink

    Have a good time – you have earned it.

    I live in Pattaya in Thailand so if I see you there? -I’ll buy vou a beer. I’ll be having a few myself – I’ve earned a few too – I’ve just finished 4 weeks working offshore Mozambique and am heading back today.

    I’ve never been to Queenstown, NZ, but I’ve seen it on the telly – I watched a cricket game. It is – as geoff Sherrington says – beautiful.

  41. pdxrod
    Posted Dec 4, 2012 at 10:16 PM | Permalink

    Keep up the good work, Steve, and don’t overdo it.

  42. SteveW
    Posted Dec 4, 2012 at 11:30 PM | Permalink

    Welome to NZ. Summer is kicking in – 30C today. If you are passing through Christchurch there is a cold beer waiting, and a chance to see nature’s handiwork, if you wish.

  43. William O. B'Livion
    Posted Dec 5, 2012 at 2:22 AM | Permalink

    New Zealand–at least the South Island–is one of the two most beautiful places in the world as far as I am concerned.

    Enjoy your trip and come back refreshed.

    Oh, and even injured there are still ways to keep your fitness levels up.

  44. Stacey
    Posted Dec 5, 2012 at 3:15 AM | Permalink

    Steve
    There may be snow on the mountain top but there’s still a fire in the cave.
    Thanks and take care
    S

  45. Just Tex
    Posted Dec 5, 2012 at 4:50 AM | Permalink

    “We must always change, renew, rejuvenate ourselves; otherwise we harden.” – Johann Wolfgang von Goethe

    Rest well. Rejoice in all the most pleasant fragrances, flavors, and findings of life. Enjoy!

    But above all, once fully ready, return.

    We’ll bob, weave, and stumble along as best we can, until that time comes.

  46. johanna
    Posted Dec 5, 2012 at 4:54 AM | Permalink

    Add me to the list of well-wishers.

    Have a great break and enjoy the warmth – if I recall correctly, the last time you were feeling a bit below par it was in the cold season as well.

    NZ is absolutely beautiful – you’ll love it.

    Oh, and Phil is right about Peter Temple and especially The Broken Shore – although his novels are seemingly always set in winter, so maybe wait till you’re somewhere toasty before embarking on his books!

  47. Old Ranga from Oz
    Posted Dec 5, 2012 at 5:02 AM | Permalink

    Well, Steve, I hope you’re having as much fun reading these comments as the rest of us clearly are.

    As for all those Kiwis, they’re somewhat parochial, you understand. For real scenic drama you need to cross The Ditch and come and explore Oz. (heh, heh)

  48. PaddikJ
    Posted Dec 5, 2012 at 5:03 AM | Permalink

    Here’s wishing you and yours wonderful and relaxing holiday travels. Rest and enjoy!

  49. RayG
    Posted Dec 5, 2012 at 11:37 AM | Permalink

    I recommend a pair of high quality noise-cancelling headphones for both you and your wife. We find that we arrive in a much better state after a long flight.

  50. Peter
    Posted Dec 5, 2012 at 4:49 PM | Permalink

    Stay well Steve. Quality beats quantity habds down. We in NZ will be delighted to welcome you to Godzone!

  51. Posted Dec 5, 2012 at 4:58 PM | Permalink

    Best wishes, for some rest and relaxation with your family.

    “Nor is it easy to continue to muster enthusiasm for analysis of dreck from people like Mann, Lewandowsky, Gleick, Gergis, Briffa, Jones etc. Wading into WG2 is even worse.”

    My normally paranoid, dystopian mind has to wonder if this isn’t some sort of a plot, simply pump out more dreck than can possibly be sorted in the effort to pump out more unparsable non-sense than is possible for any number of auditors to ‘prove’ is dreck, all in an effort to obfuscate the issue ad infinitum – – my condolences.

    Truth will prevail – one hopes.

    W^3

  52. durango12
    Posted Dec 5, 2012 at 5:25 PM | Permalink

    As an engaged septogenarian, I have learned that focus is a key parameter to be nurtured and strengthened. So forget about WG2. Everything rests on WG1.

    Yes. It does seem like the strategy is to simply overwhelm the ability of a relatively small set of truthsquadders to deal with. So within the framework of WG1 itself, the three things that matter are:
    — Paleoclimate, because it goes to whether the current warming is unusual or “unprecedented.”
    — The instrumental record, because it goes to the magnitude/rate of 20th/21st century warming
    — The climate models, because in the end that is the heart of the IPCC et al case

    Little else matters.

    • Old Ranga from Oz
      Posted Dec 5, 2012 at 7:01 PM | Permalink

      Actually, durango12, there’s another parameter that’s an even bigger key – $$$. And that’s about to dry up if this news story is right. Because unlike our lot, the other lot depends on funding, grants and eco-subsidies.

      Graham Lloyd:World climate pact ‘to bypass UN’ | The Australian.pdf

      Smile, Steve!

  53. Fred Harwood
    Posted Dec 5, 2012 at 6:56 PM | Permalink

    Be well, Steve.

  54. Old Ranga from Oz
    Posted Dec 5, 2012 at 7:05 PM | Permalink

    Sorry – here’s the link to Graham Lloyd’s UN bypass story in The Oz (paywalled unfortunately).

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/climate/world-climate-pact-to-bypass-un/story-e6frg6xf-1226530838558

  55. thisisnotgoodtogo
    Posted Dec 5, 2012 at 9:15 PM | Permalink

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/climate/world-climate-pact-to-bypass-un/story-e6frg6xf-1226530838558

    better link to The Oz story from Old Ranga

  56. thisisnotgoodtogo
    Posted Dec 5, 2012 at 9:17 PM | Permalink

    OK, I googled a sentence and found the story, but from the link it goes to the exerpt and “login”

  57. theduke
    Posted Dec 5, 2012 at 11:11 PM | Permalink

    As a long time reader of this blog, I would advise Steve, if he is so disposed, to concentrate on WG2 in the near future. That is where the truth according to “The Consensus” will be bruited and that is where his expertise will do the most good.

    That said, I am almost exactly Steve’s age and after surviving some personal crises in recent years I have recently adopted a new rule in life: don’t force yourself to do things you don’t really want to do. The correlative to that is: do what you most enjoy doing. Travel, and in this case a trip to magical New Zealand, fall into the latter category and may be just what the doctor ordered.

    I would suggest to Steve that regarding this blog, he doesn’t owe anyone anywhere anything. His contributions to what is seemingly the great debate of our time are legion and widely recognized. If he wants to shut the blog down in order to concentrate on the more important things in his life, he should do that.

  58. EdeF
    Posted Dec 5, 2012 at 11:44 PM | Permalink

    Steve, enjoy the time with your family. Safe travel and Happy Holidays. Maybe the
    National Hockey League will resume play soon. New Zealand will be spectacular in the austral summer.

  59. Posted Dec 6, 2012 at 1:21 AM | Permalink

    Hoping you have a great time in NZ, Steve. If you are visiting the Bay of Islands I would have loved to offer you all accommodation in our lovely holiday house but unfortunately it is booked thru Xmas and January now. Next time contact earlier. Still if you are visiting Russell this time let us shout you a meal at least.

  60. Posted Dec 6, 2012 at 1:31 AM | Permalink

    Hi Steve,
    Would be great to catch up for coffee when you hit NZ.

  61. raupeka
    Posted Dec 6, 2012 at 4:35 AM | Permalink

    I just can’t get over how many Kiwis read your blog. Well, I’m another one, and I love what you do. But if it’s time to stop, it’s time to stop. My thoughts are with you – enjoy your time here.

  62. Posted Dec 6, 2012 at 4:39 AM | Permalink

    Steve,

    In case you didn’t get my previous message, we live by the seaside near central Auckland (12 mins away) and you are most welcome to come and visit – it will be fresh flounder from in front of the house for lunch – or, if you need a bed, we can provide.

    If you would like to go sailing, we have a 10 m yacht.

    I do hope we get to meet.

    Bryan and Jane Leyland

  63. orson2
    Posted Dec 6, 2012 at 6:46 AM | Permalink

    Steve says about his health:
    “I also had a bout of periodic weariness. I just turned 65 and continue to tire more quickly than I used to.” “Could it be low-T?”

    YES, it is a commercial television tagline in the US. But, for complex reasons not worth unveiling here, it was for me. Low testosterone: it does start around age 30 quite naturally, but supplementing your T could restore your vitality.

    There are many methods of supplementing T. Here’s the simplest:

    IF you have “GNC Nutrition” stores, just spend $22US for a bottle of 750mg/90 caps Tribulus (Terrestis) produced by Ultimate Nutrition. This brand seems by far the freshest and therefor most powerful. (Or else get it online.)

    Take two caps a day for a few weeks (with meals), then evaluate.

    If effective, then you can go off them and see your physician for testosterone blood level test. Then you have a baseline for treatment and retesting for measured effectiveness.

    (And no, only certain types of prostate cancer respond to T – most don’t. But men of a certain age should have their PSA levels checked regularly, anyway.)

  64. Day Hay
    Posted Dec 6, 2012 at 11:04 AM | Permalink

    Steve,
    Glad to see a post.
    +1 on testosterone replacement.
    http://www.renewman.com

  65. Jeff Alberts
    Posted Dec 6, 2012 at 11:07 AM | Permalink

    I’ve mentioned this before, but thought it deserved mentioning again.

    I’m a complete Average Joe. I can’t begin to follow the math, statistics, etc presented here much of the time, but I can follow the concepts. I can understand when Ross M. states that MBH 98 overweighted Bristlecone Pines by a factor of 391% (I hope I have that right). You make these complex concepts accessible to someone like me, and I greatly appreciate that.

    In my RSS reader, if there is a CA post, that’s the first place I go, always.

    I know, most of my comments are pretty useless, and often get snipped. I take that as a badge of honor ;)

    I’m rambling a bit, but the bottom line is, I hope you can continue to do what you do, at your pace. The rest of us are on the edge of our seats waiting for the next CA post.

    No pressure! ;)

    p.s. I’m 50, so I guess I’m one of the youngsters here.

  66. theduke
    Posted Dec 6, 2012 at 11:12 AM | Permalink

    An essay that visitors here, as well as Steve, might find interesting:

    http://www.thenewatlantis.com/publications/the-folly-of-scientism

    • Posted Dec 13, 2012 at 2:37 AM | Permalink

      Thanks for that link, theduke. Article is a long but, IMHO, very worthwhile read. There are a number of “climatologists” who would do well to heed the author’s concluding paragraphs:

      [...] scientism appears to have as much in common with superstition as it does with properly conducted scientific research. Scientism claims that science has already resolved questions that are inherently beyond its ability to answer.

      Of all the fads and foibles in the long history of human credulity, scientism in all its varied guises — from fanciful cosmology to evolutionary epistemology and ethics — seems among the more dangerous, both because it pretends to be something very different from what it really is and because it has been accorded widespread and uncritical adherence. Continued insistence on the universal competence of science will serve only to undermine the credibility of science as a whole. The ultimate outcome will be an increase of radical skepticism that questions the ability of science to address even the questions legitimately within its sphere of competence. One longs for a new Enlightenment to puncture the pretensions of this latest superstition.

      And Steve Mc, if you’re reading, may I add my voice to those of earlier well-wishers. Have a wonderful holiday and enjoyable visits with your far-flung family members.

      They say that a change is as good as a rest, and I hope that this change of scenery (however temporary) proves to be restorative for you.

      Hilary

  67. Posted Dec 6, 2012 at 1:24 PM | Permalink

    Steve,enjoy your holiday. I hope you’re taking security precautions for your house while you’re away. Especially after announcing your travel plans to the world.

    Cheers
    Paul

  68. Steven Mosher
    Posted Dec 6, 2012 at 2:48 PM | Permalink

    Enjoyed our dinner.

    check out the paleo posters on line.

    there are two that relate directly to the divergence and
    the role of aerosols. dimming is the problem.

    and the divergence is not isolate to post 1960.

    Basically certain arctic trees respond (over respond ) to a dimming.

    Also, interest BCP work was done by the usual suspects

  69. Robin Edwards
    Posted Dec 6, 2012 at 5:42 PM | Permalink

    I can only echo many of the comments here. Relaxation is the key to rejuvenation. I’ve had some experience, being 84, and I still look at time series on a daily basis just for fun!

    Take care, and enjoy.

    Robin

  70. Old Ranga from Oz
    Posted Dec 7, 2012 at 12:34 AM | Permalink

    Steve:

    In case you missed this during its brief GWPF appearance, here’s a joyous Christmas gift to relish.

    ALAN OXLEY: THE FIVE STAGES OF CLIMATE GRIEF
    Date: 06/12/12 Alan Oxley, The Australian Financial Review

    The Kyoto Protocol died in Copenhagen in December 2009. Why, then, are climate change officials, including our own, meeting a third time since then and, instead of finalising burial arrangements, still talking about extending Kyoto to tackle climate change?

    The answer is simple: the international community of climate change officials is going through the five stages of grief: denial, anger, bargaining, depression and acceptance.

    http://www.thegwpf.org/alan-oxley-stages-climate-grief/

  71. AJ
    Posted Dec 8, 2012 at 5:31 PM | Permalink

    Enjoy your time off Steve.

    Here’s a little something I put together that is somewhat related to Sandy. It’s my Quasi Power Dissipation Index for the northeast coast (1851-2011):

    https://sites.google.com/site/climateadj/home/noreast-pdi

  72. john robertson
    Posted Dec 10, 2012 at 3:22 PM | Permalink

    Steve Milford is breath taking, have some one else do the driving, there is too much to take in while driving thro there.In the upper North Island the Kauri forest is very different from Northern America .
    Statistical Help needed at Musing from the Chiefio, I think he’s on the scent. But am statistically ignorant, which is why I come here, I don’t always follow the arguments, but the way you carry them out counts.
    E.M asks , “Do Temperatures have a mean?” dec 10th.

  73. Kuze
    Posted Dec 10, 2012 at 4:03 PM | Permalink

    Here’s an article about forecasting by Phil Tetlock who has done a large amount of interesting analysis of expert prediction (hint: it’s not very accurate). While there is nothing in the article that is explcitly about climate science I think the following quote is somewhat apt

    “The long and the short of the story is that it’s very hard for professionals and executives to maintain their status if they can’t maintain a certain mystique about their judgment. If they lose that mystique about their judgment, that’s profoundly threatening”

    It’s obvious that a large portion of the bile sent Steve’s way is because he’s an ‘outsider’ and the fact that his technical skill is on par or better than many ‘Real Climate Scientists™’ is doubly insulting because it damages not only specific scientists “Gergis, Mann etc.” but the mystique/authority of the entire field.

    It’s a long article but worth the read:

    http://www.edge.org/conversation/win-at-forecasting

  74. Mike Mangan
    Posted Dec 11, 2012 at 6:28 AM | Permalink

    Lewandowsky does operate with impunity…

    http://www.npr.org/blogs/13.7/2012/12/10/166733644/what-do-aliens-climate-change-and-princess-di-have-in-common

    Wasn’t that a Soviet tactic, to portray dissidents as crazy?

  75. learDog
    Posted Dec 15, 2012 at 9:58 AM | Permalink

    Hi Steve – hope you are having a restful holiday. Any initial reaction to the release of the 2nd order draft (hoping that release qualifies as something interesting)? ;-D

    Cat, bag yadda yadda…..

  76. Posted Dec 15, 2012 at 5:17 PM | Permalink

    Have an enjoyable holiday. If you will be in Auckland, New Zealand, would love to take you all out to lunch or something. My email ray(at)tomes(dot)biz

  77. Phil
    Posted Dec 15, 2012 at 6:58 PM | Permalink

    Best wishes for Christmas and the New Year.

  78. Nathan
    Posted Dec 17, 2012 at 10:21 AM | Permalink

    thank you very much for it. I hope you have a very nice xmas and an happy new year!

  79. DaveA
    Posted Dec 21, 2012 at 9:08 PM | Permalink

    Look out for one of “the most important climate archives from Antarctica to date” to make its way into reconstructions.

    “A NEW Zealand-led team of scientists has drilled through more than 760m of Antarctic ice to bedrock in a bid to unearth a detailed record of 30,000 years of climate change.
    The 763m-long ice core is the result of years of planning and four summers of field work on Roosevelt Island in the eastern Ross Sea.”

    http://www.news.com.au/breaking-news/world/ice-core-success-in-ross-sea/story-e6frfkui-1226542290764

    No doubt they’re tripping over themselves to get at this.

  80. Adrianos Kosmina
    Posted Dec 23, 2012 at 7:11 AM | Permalink

    Without wanting to be sarcastic could I comment that perhaps there are fewer and fewer postings because there is less and less interest in something that is obviously not occurring namely Antropogenic Global Warming LOL

  81. Scarface
    Posted Dec 23, 2012 at 9:30 PM | Permalink

    Hope you have a good time over there. Happy Holidays and all the best for you and your family!

    And thank you for all your time and effort in the battle against the AGW-doctrine. The desintegration of it is a clear sign of your invaluable contribution to dismantling the pseudo-science of the alarmists.

  82. Timothy Sorenson
    Posted Dec 23, 2012 at 9:46 PM | Permalink

    Check out realclimate, steig is all so excited claiming after ‘correcting’ for instrumental errors and ice core evaluation that West antartica is doing exactly as he said: really warming….

  83. Posted Dec 24, 2012 at 1:34 PM | Permalink

    Merry Christmas and Happy New Year Steve to you and your’s from a fellow Cunuck from RED DEER Alta. bye the bye it’s flipping cold here

  84. Posted Dec 24, 2012 at 9:04 PM | Permalink

    Just wanted to wish one and all, especially Steve, happy holidays. Hope everyone is using electric Yule logs, LED Christmas lights, and CO2-offset grown Christmas trees this year–Santa knows whether you’re carbon-nasty or carbon-nice and will place a lump of non-combustible fake coal in your stocking if you don’t watch out.

  85. Betapug
    Posted Dec 24, 2012 at 9:07 PM | Permalink

    Steve and family..hope you are enjoying your trip to the warm side. Best wishes for the season and a safe return to the cold and dark.

  86. Jeff Norman
    Posted Dec 26, 2012 at 7:17 PM | Permalink

    Those of us in the civilized parts of the world are honouring Boxing Day today. I sincerely hope everyone had a good Christmas and wish you all the best for 2013.

  87. Posted Dec 30, 2012 at 9:21 PM | Permalink

    A happy belated holiday season to all and best wishes for a happy New Year.

  88. Geoff
    Posted Dec 31, 2012 at 6:12 AM | Permalink

    Hi Steve,

    Hope your trip has gone well. All the best for 2013.

  89. Skiphil
    Posted Dec 31, 2012 at 6:14 AM | Permalink

    Wishing all a very Happy New Year! Thanks to Steve and all for such a thoughtful forum. I hope all travels are going well and safely. Not to upset anyone’s New Year cheer, but there is a collective blog post going around with quite a lot of climate alarm hype:

    The blog post hyped ’round the world

    The top (Climate) Events of 2012

    By Stephan Lewandowsky
    Winthrop Professor, School of Psychology, University of Western Australia
    Posted on 29 December 2012

  90. Posted Dec 31, 2012 at 8:09 PM | Permalink

    Happy New Year, guys and gals!!

  91. John G. Bell
    Posted Jan 1, 2013 at 11:57 AM | Permalink

    I hope you are happy, well, among family and friends, and doing what you want to do. Happy New Year!

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